Brasileiro Serie A & B round #3

[bing]

Serie A record: 10-3-3 +11,68 unitsSerie B record: 02-0-9 - 5,55 units


Icasa x Avai - Icasa pk @1,80 1 unit


Both teams have 4 points with 1w and 1d. Avai will be resting key player Marquinhos and Jefferson Maranhao, defender Alef won´t be playing due to suspension. It´s a long trip from Santa Catarina to Ceara and Icasa won´t be missing any players. Home factor will be an advantage for Icasa today and I´ll be backing them, eventhough the draw seems to be the most likely outcome.


Joinville x ASA - Under 2,5 @1,80


Trying to stay away from totals, but for this particular game I´ll back the under. Joinville will miss striker Ronaldo due to suspension and team is still in formation. ASA will try to bounce back from the loss against Palmeiras. Joinville loses a lot of the offensive power with the absence of Ronaldo and ASA will be concentrating their efforts to earn a point.


Paysandu x America RN - Paysandu pk @1,60


America hasn´t won their last 7 games and I don´t believe they´ll be ending their streak in a away game against PAysandu. Both teams haven´t started well, but I´ll have to go with Paysandu for their home advantage.


Oeste x Parana - Parana pk @1,80


Parana dominated the last game against SC but field conditions were awful and they couldn´t break SC defense. Oeste hasn´t lost yet, but haven´t won either. Last home game was against Avai and they only managed to draw the game in the last minute with a goal from the goalkeeper. They also took the first goal against Chapecoense but managed to draw the game again. Parana is one of the candidates for promotion this season and they´ve been playing well and won´t be missing any players today. Home factor is not important, just because Oeste doesn´t have many supporters. It´s almost like a neutral field.


ABC x Ceara - Ceara pk @2,00


This is a traditional game between two teams from the Northeast of Brazil. They´ve played twice this year with a win each. I just have to back Ceara today, ABC is in bad shape, they lost both of their games so far and Ceara will have the return of key striker Magno Alves and center midfielder Lulinha will be back from suspension.

[Zeca]

I like the Icasa pk. Icasa's week was way lighter than Avai's. Icasa played home in first round, than visited America-RN that is about 600km from Icasa's home, and now is back home. Avai played Oeste in Itapolis in first round, travelled 900km to go back to Florianopolis to play the second round home, and will make a 3000 km trip to meet with Icasa now. Plus they are missing Marquinhos, that is a key player.

Of course Avai still have some artillery power with Cleber Santana and all, but I believe that coach Ricardinho is more likely to play for the draw here. A win for Avai would be unlikely imo.

[Akatana]

Thank's guy's, even more valuable information to grasp. Thank's Zeca

[Akatana]

Bing what do you think about Palmeiras -1 ?

By the way, Crazy Icasa match! But glad we got the under on Joinville and the push on Paysandu.

[O]

Serie A record: 10-3-3 +11,68 unitsSerie B record: 02-0-9 - 5,55 units


Icasa x Avai - Icasa pk @1,80 1 unit




Both teams have 4 points with 1w and 1d. Avai will be resting key player Marquinhos and Jefferson Maranhao, defender Alef won´t be playing due to suspension. It´s a long trip from Santa Catarina to Ceara and Icasa won´t be missing any players. Home factor will be an advantage for Icasa today and I´ll be backing them, eventhough the draw seems to be the most likely outcome.


Joinville x ASA - Under 2,5 @1,80


Trying to stay away from totals, but for this particular game I´ll back the under. Joinville will miss striker Ronaldo due to suspension and team is still in formation. ASA will try to bounce back from the loss against Palmeiras. Joinville loses a lot of the offensive power with the absence of Ronaldo and ASA will be concentrating their efforts to earn a point.


Paysandu x America RN - Paysandu pk @1,60


America hasn´t won their last 7 games and I don´t believe they´ll be ending their streak in a away game against PAysandu. Both teams haven´t started well, but I´ll have to go with Paysandu for their home advantage.


Oeste x Parana - Parana pk @1,80


Parana dominated the last game against SC but field conditions were awful and they couldn´t break SC defense. Oeste hasn´t lost yet, but haven´t won either. Last home game was against Avai and they only managed to draw the game in the last minute with a goal from the goalkeeper. They also took the first goal against Chapecoense but managed to draw the game again. Parana is one of the candidates for promotion this season and they´ve been playing well and won´t be missing any players today. Home factor is not important, just because Oeste doesn´t have many supporters. It´s almost like a neutral field.


ABC x Ceara - Ceara pk @2,00


This is a traditional game between two teams from the Northeast of Brazil. They´ve played twice this year with a win each. I just have to back Ceara today, ABC is in bad shape, they lost both of their games so far and Ceara will have the return of key striker Magno Alves and center midfielder Lulinha will be back from suspension.

Are all these series B?

[Akatana]

Yes!

[bing]

Today 1-2-2 -1,20 units

still struggling with Serie B...can´t believe the Icasa game...winning 3-1 and losing 3-4...wtf...can´t trust bad teams!!!

[Akatana]

Today 1-2-2 -1,20 units

still struggling with Serie B...can´t believe the Icasa game...winning 3-1 and losing 3-4...wtf...can´t trust bad teams!!!

True.....that was a tiny bit ridiculous. It's ok man, we got huge action in the next couple of day's.

[O]

Yes!

Thanks. My book doesn't have Serie B. I will wait to see what Binger has for A. GL this weekend boys.

[stemellor]

Bing what do you think about Palmeiras -1 ?

I'm interested in this as well. Looks like it's being played on neutral ground.

[bing]

I'm interested in this as well. Looks like it's being played on neutral ground.

Palmeiras is playing in Itu, that´s like an hour away by car from the city. Reason for that is because Palmerias has been punished with a 4 game suspension from last year game against Botafogo. So, they´ll still play two more games after this one in Itu.

I don´t see Palmerias not winning this game, they´ve been in a good momentum. America Mineiro had two losses already and they didn´t perform well in their state competition. Palmeiras -1 should cover.

[bing]

Tough schedule and no clear favorites in today´s round. I´ll just start with the one I like the most.

Internacional x Bahia


This is a sunday game, but the one I´ll risk the most again. Not much to say if you´ve been following my analysis and opinions. Inter is a contender to win the league and Bahia a contender for relegation. Inter will have the same team that beaten Criciuma at home and Bahia lost their first game against this same Criciuma. Bahia will aim for a miracle draw tomorrow, but thats really unlikely to happen. The risk factor for this game is the lack of aim from striker Rafael Moura, but they have too much quality in front with Forlan, D´alesandro and Fred not to brake Bahias defensive system which is not great. Bahia didn´t suffer a goal from Coritiba in their last match, but they took 3 from Criciuma and 7 goals from Vitoria in the state league. I´m going with Inter -1 just to be safer, Inter lost too many chances to score against Criciuma and Bahia weakness can relax Inter players after they score their first goal.


PICK: Internacional AH-1 @1,654 5 units

[bing]

Atletico Mineiro x Sao Paulo

This is a sunday game as well. It´s the 5th time these teams will meet this year. Atletico has the clear advantage with 3 wins and only 1 loss. Atletico has just qualified to CL semi finals after a miraculous pk save by goalkeeper Victor in the last minute of the game against Tijuana. They´ll be missing midfielder Bernard and defensive player Rever cause they´re joining the Brazilian National team. Atletico focus is not in Serie A at this moment and you have to consider that after such an emotional game against Tijuana it´s hard for any person to switch off and put their best effort in such a short period of time. Fatigue has started to show in Atletico, they haven´t performed as well as they did in the begining of the year and they haven´t won in their last 4 games. They´re usually a beast when they play at home, but they didn´t show that in their last game against Tijuana and I believe that has a lot to do with fatigue. Emotions are still so high in Atletico for the CL game that Sundays game against SP in not even mentioned.


In the otherside we have a SP team that has too much to lose if they don´t win or at least draw this game against Atletico. Despite their great start to the season, tthe opponents faced till now are not contenders to the title, and beating Atletico at their home, might just give them the confidence needed for the rest of the tournament. Eventhough SP lost 3 of the 4 games, they played well against Atletico and lost to situations that were developed during the match.
I like the emotional factor that favors SP in this match, Fatigue, emotions and the absence of Bernard and Rever might just give the tools for Sp to gain at least a point in Atletico field.


PICK: Sao Paulo AH +0,5 @1,725 3 units

[bing]

Goias x Coritiba - Goias pk @1,73 2 unitsGoias plays well in their stadium and they shown that last game against Corinthians. A lot of experienced players in the Goias team, such as Dudu Cearense and Hugo. Coritiba hasn´t shown much when they play as visitors. They couldn´t beat Bahia ouside their domain and they had a surpriing loss to Nacional in the Brazilian Cup. Both teams are very similar in strengh and I´ll back the home team for this game.


Santos x Gremio - Draw @3,28 1 unit
Santos lost Neymar and coach Muricy Ramalho has been dismissed this week. Gremio always struggles when playing in Vila Belmiro and eventhough they have good players they still didn´t show a convincing performance this year.


Atletico pr x Flamengo - Atletico pk @1,699 1 unit
Both teams are struggling and desperately need a win. Flamengo hasn´t scored yet and they haven´t had a good performance in away games this year. Atletico has played better and eventhough they´re not playing in their field I still believe they have the advantage today.

[Akatana]

Thank's bing! I really wanted to get your thought's on Palmeiras before placing the -1 AH for them. I've also take Vitoria ML at home, They are really solid right now, and Vasco is still having problem's. I'm also tailing a few other Serie A play's as well. BOL today.

[bing]

Corinthians x Ponte Preta - Ponte Preta AH+1 @1,901 1 unitObviously Corinthians is the stronger side, but they haven´t been playing well and the absence of Paulinho is a huge loss for their team. Midfielder Danilo will be back, but recent history shows that playing against Ponte Preta is never an easy task. Last game Ponte Preta suffered a humiliating 4-0 defeat for the Paulista quarter finals but I don´t expect that to happen again. Lots of value in Ponte Preta +1 today.

[bing]

Thank's bing! I really wanted to get your thought's on Palmeiras before placing the -1 AH for them. I've also take Vitoria ML at home, They are really solid right now, and Vasco is still having problem's. I'm also tailing a few other Serie A play's as well. BOL today.

BOL today Akatana!!! I like Vitoria as well, but not very confident yet. Haven´t decided a bet on Vitoria and Botafogo game today.

[i97g]

Vasco Should be a great UNDER 2.5 play...they havent been playing well offensively but I dont see them giving up on defense.

[i97g]

Corinthians x Ponte Preta - Ponte Preta AH+1 @1,901 1 unitObviously Corinthians is the stronger side, but they haven´t been playing well and the absence of Paulinho is a huge loss for their team. Midfielder Danilo will be back, but recent history shows that playing against Ponte Preta is never an easy task. Last game Ponte Preta suffered a humiliating 4-0 defeat for the Paulista quarter finals but I don´t expect that to happen again. Lots of value in Ponte Preta +1 today.

Ponte Preta +.5 @ +155...thoughts?

[bing]

Ponte Preta +.5 @ +155...thoughts?

I´ll only win my bet if Ponte Preta draws this game, and I went with +1 to be safer, cause Corinthians is the stronger side.

I like your under for the Vasco game, but I´m not playing totals for now.

[bing]

What´s going on with atletico??? 2nd time they open a 2-0 lead and allow the other team to tie the score!!! Either psychological or physical problems!!!

1 win 1 push for now...

[bing]

Serie B

Sao Caetano x Chapecoense - Sao Caetano pk @1,667 1 unit


BkofAma x Atletico GO - Draw @3,23 1 unit

[Vaughany]

Damnnn great comeback by Flamengo

[Vaughany]

Goias miss two great chances in final couple mins of first half

[bolek]

Live bet -- goias to score in 2nd half @ -154 ....
Live bet -- goias double chance @ +120
Cheers gl

[Vaughany]

ridiculous, Goias leaving one man in defence...Coritiba counter with 3 on 1 and now have freekick on edge of box...ref could of easily given a penalty

[Vaughany]

ha got lucky there at end! I'll take the push but Goias had a couple of great chances to win it...Walter blasting over from 5 yards out and a free header wide, and a great save by keeper from another header

[bolek]

Live bet -- goias to score in 2nd half @ -154 ....
Live bet -- goias double chance @ +120
Cheers gl

$$$$ cashing in both plays $$$$

[bing]

we were lucky with the push but Goias should have won the game...better a push than a loss

[Vaughany]

Live bet -- goias to score in 2nd half @ -154 ....
Live bet -- goias double chance @ +120
Cheers gl

yeah nice hit

[Akatana]

Such a disappointment with Palmeiras!!!! Disgusting play!!, But for me Vitoria ML, Botafogo ML, Santos and draw (double chance) and Corinthians ML (as a double) all won, plus i also got a push from Goias. 3-1-1 for tonight's Brasileiro action.

I have to say it wasn't easy going for the Botafogo ML play but they are solid at the moment and i fancied taking my chances with them at home.

Will be back for more Brazilian action tomorrow!!!!!!!! Tough game's for tomorrow!

[bing]

1-0-3 for Serie A +2,28 units

Atletico pr opened a 2-0 lead but they allowed Flamengo to tie the game, giving us push.


Goias played better but took the first goal and couldn´t manage to score 2 goals...game ended 1-1. push again


Ponte Preta holded as much as they could but lost 1-0. push again...


Santos and Gremio ended 1-1 win giving us a profit for today in Serie A!!!


Serie B today 1-1-0 +1,23 units


Last minute goal against Sao Caetano made me lose the bet...0-1 loss


B oa game ended just like it started..0-0 win


Two draws giving us a +3,51 units for the day...if I´ve played all draws profit would have been amazing...

[Zeca]

Bing and others, thoughts on Nautico vs Portuguesa today?

I was thinking about going for Nautico here.

Nautico team is in bad shape, and their moment with their supporters is not good as well. Their year is not good, they have been eliminated in first round o Brazil Cup by the week CRAC, and made a just mediocre Pernambucano. Additionally Portuguesa has not played in middle of the week so they should have an advantage on fatigue here.

On the other side, Portuguesa is not doing good also. They were champions of second division of the Paulista, but it was no like they crushed the league. They also suffered an awful elimination in first round of Brazil Cup for Naviraiense. Their team does look a little better than Nautico's, but Portuguesa has not played well yet. They were dominated by Vasco in the first round, and Vasco has not shown any strength against anyone this year, besides Portuguesa. Portuguesa coach, Edson Pimenta, is totally inexperienced, while Nautico's Silas already has some background.

Given all that, I think the home factor should play a role here. Nautico is historically very strong at home. Last year they had 13 wins 3 draws and 3 defeats playing in Aflitos. Even when they were relegated back in 2009 they won 8, had 4 draws and 7 loses. In 2008, 9-5-5 and in 2007 9-4-6. Additionally this will be Nautico's last game in the Aflitos, that will most likely be demolished and rented by the club, since they will now play in the New Arena Pernambuco. So this game should be special for them and for their supporters, who always make a huge pressure atmosphere for visitors in the Aflitos.

I smell some value on Nautico ML @ 2,29 in pinnacle.

What do you guys think? Am I missing something here?

[bing]

Pending bets:

Internacional AH-1 @1,654 5 units


Sao Paulo AH +0,5 @1,725 3 units


Adding:


Nautico x Portuguesa - Under 2,5 @1,75 2 units

[bing]

Hey Zeca, imo both teams are equally bad, I was leaning for a draw, but I decided to go with the under cause both teams lack offensive power and historically their games in Nautico home are usually under. Small advantage for Nautico for playing at home.