Brasileiro Serie A & B round 2

bing · 05-27-13, 07:00 PM

I´ll be playing only unit again for each pick.

Parana x Sao Caetano
Parana had a good start to the season with an away victory against ABC. Coach Dado will maintain the same formation for this game in order for his players to get used to each other. Home factor is very imoportant, specially when teams are not from the same state.
Sao Caetano had a draw against Ceara, but they had the whole second half with an extra player, since Lulinha received a red card for Ceara. Still Sao Caetano was unable to score and actually Ceara had the better opportunities to score. Sao Caetano just renewed their squad with twelve new players for this tournament. They had hired some veterans and known players in Brazil for the Paulista tournament such as Rivaldo, goalkeeper FAbio Costa and troublemaker Jobson, but they had a very disappointing season being relegated from Paulista. That´s the reason of the totally new squad.

I don´t know what to expect from Sao Caetano at the moment but they´re not a team right now and they´ll need time to adjust. They were unable to score a goal and more concerning is that they were unable to create goal opportunities. Parana just seems to be the more cohesive team at the moment and they had surprised me with an away victory against ABC. So I´ll take my chances with the best team at the moment and hoping that home factor will have an influence to this game.

PICK: Parana pk and -0,5 @1,82 pinnacle

bing · 05-27-13, 07:52 PM

Chapecoense x Oeste

Chapecoense had a great start to the season with an away victory against BkofAma with a 4:1 score. They also had a pretty decent state performance losing the championship to Serie A Criciuma.
Oeste managed to draw the game against Avai in the last minute with a goal from goalkeeper Fernando Leal.

Chapecoense has shown good form since the State League and they confirmed their good moment with an amazing 4:1 win away from home. Oeste was nearly relegated from Paulista and they were lucky to draw against Avai in the last minute. Chapecoense are clear favorites for this game and I expect them to confirm a victory tomorrow.

PICK: Chapecoense ML @1,794

bing · 05-27-13, 08:40 PM

Ceara x Paysandu

Ceara is coming from an away draw against Sao Caetano in which their striker Lulinha received the red card in the second half. They still managed to create the best opportunities to score in the game. They´ll be playing at home now and their main striker Magno Alves might be back from injury and be available for this game. Even without him, Paysandu has not been playing well and Ceara should dominate this game and take advantage of their home field. I believe Ceara will be one of the teams fighting for promotion to Serie A.

Pick : Ceara @1,80

Akatana · 05-27-13, 09:24 PM

Thank you bing. have some decision making to do, let's see what happens. Great insight's. Bol for tommorow.

bing · 05-28-13, 03:54 PM

I just want to say that I´m playing only 1 unit for each play, and units are different from player to player. For me it represents a common bet with low value, just because I do play a lot of games. When I´m confident bets will be at least 5 units or above.

1 unit bets for Serie B today

America RN x Icasa - America RN ML @2,05

Avai x Guaratingueta - Under 2,5 @1,85

Sport x ABC - Over 2,5 @1,85

Atletico GO x Joinville - Under 2,5 @1,95

Bragantino x BkofAma - Over 2,5 @1,80

Akatana · 05-28-13, 04:59 PM

Unlucky with Parana i took'em also. They pretty much dominated most of the match but were unable to finish.
Bol with the rest. I'm also on Chapecoense, Ceara, America RN and Bragantino x BkofAma - Over 2,5 @1,80

Akatana · 05-28-13, 08:14 PM

Ceara was such a close game but they pulled it off. I'm also playing Copa Libertadores -1 Sanata Fe

thefonzo · 05-28-13, 09:49 PM

Ouch.....that's why we start out small, right?

Akatana · 05-28-13, 11:55 PM

Waiting for the Serie A action tomorrow.

Akatana · 05-29-13, 11:31 AM

I am honestly considering taking Cruzeiro DNB, and this is got nothing to do with the first round, but we will see, still have some decision making to do, and Sao Paulo possibly as well. I'm still waiting on your analysis and pick's Bing lol

bing · 05-29-13, 11:56 AM

I´m gonna gie a short analysis on the Atletico Pr x Cruzeiro game, cause game will start in like an hour and a half. I´ve been busy today, so I´ll post the other games later.

Atletico PR x Cruzeiro

Traditionally Atletico is a very strong team to be beaten at home. But this time game will be held not in Atletico´s stadium but in Vila Olimpica stadium that doesnp´t have artificial lights, and that´s the reason game is being held early. Field conditions are just sad...lot of holes in the field and a lot of mud too. Weather conditions seems that it´s a rainy day in Curitiba and the field is full of of puddles.
Atletico PR has only played four games so far this season and that´s because in the State Leagues they played with their under 23 players while the top players were concentrated for practice and some international tourneys. Both Cruzeiro and Atletico are offensive teams but field conditions won´t allow them to play their best football, and that usually makes the under bet very attractive. Despite the loss to Fluminense mixed team in Rio in the first round, Atletico had more possession of the ball and they were more dangerous than Fluminense, but of course less accurate. I don´t expect Cruzeiro to have an easy game today, due to field, weather and they´re also meeting a team that is more prepare than Goias.

PICK: Under 2,5 1 @1,794 2 units
Draw @3,45 1 unit

bing · 05-29-13, 02:30 PM

I´m gonna stay away from totals in this round, it just seems like I´m flipping a coin and unfortunately landing in the wrong side....

Internacional x Criciuma

This game is actually on thursday but I want to start with this one cause it will be the one I risk the most for this second round.

Dunga will start the same players that played against Vitoria last round. IMO Inter will be one the teams to be in the top 4 and with good possibilities of lifting the trophy in the end. Even if Leandro Damiao is sold to european football they have a strong group of players and a very solid defense Their offense is very capable of scoring goals in almost every match. I don´t expect Inter to allow goals tomorrow, they´ll definetely be more aware after taking two goals from Vitoria in the first minutes of the game. Inter´s come back in the second half with goals from Forlan and Fred just proves the quality of this team and playing at home against a recently promoted team Criciuma just brings me the confidence to go along with Inter tomorrow.

Criciuma had a great start with the win against BAhia, but they had the home advantage and the best opponent they could get for a first round match. With the tough schedule ahead of them their best chances of earning some points will be in their home games.. Coach Vadão knows that chances for his team to win a point against Inter are minimum, a loss is expected and he´ll try and close his team as much as possible. Inter is used to playing against those defensive systems...

I expect Inters full energy tomorrow, I believe they´ll be dominating this game from the start. Rafael Moura hasn´t scored for a while and tomorrow will be a perfect game for him to end this bad streak. I don´t expect much from Criciuma when they play away, specially against one of the best teams of the nation.

PICK: Internacional AH-1 @1,926 5 units

Akatana · 05-29-13, 02:56 PM

Wow Cruzeiro saves the day with that draw, i went for the draw as well. while the rest of the work penetrates up the Brazilian momentum saves the day yet again.

bing · 05-29-13, 03:09 PM

I don´t like today´s schedule...so many people on Botafogo, Cruzeiro and Sao Paulo today and imo at least 2 out 3 will fail to win today.So I´ll be playing only 1 unit for each game.

Botafogo x Santos
So everyone is talking how Santos will play without Neymar, but they haven´t been playing well even with him on the team. Neymar hasn´t scored in his last 8 games. Team was so dependant on him, but his mind was already on Barcelona, I believe they´ll play better as a team with his absence. Remember that on Santos bench we have coach Muricy Ramalho who won 3 consecutive serie A with Sao Paulo and although his teams play an ugly soccer they´re really tough to be beaten. Last year this same Botafogo had the opportunity to face Santos twice without Neymar and they lost playing at home and had a draw playing in Santos. Santos will be missing some players but key players Cicero, Arouca and Montillo are all in and William Jose will make his first appearance today.
Botafogo will only be missing goalkeeper Jefferson who joins the national squad. They´re the public favorites and they should be. They have just won the Carioca League and had a great performance against Corinthians with a 1-1 away game. But public is betting on Botafogo mainly because of Santos latest performances and the fact that Neymar isn´t playing anymore. Arouca is a great player and Cicero has been playing well...Montillo is the main player for Santos now, he hasn´t played well since he joined Santos but I expect him to call responsability of the games for himself from now on...
I won´t deny Botafogo are the clear favorites for this game, but I do believe Santos will make them play very hard to earn a win today. So I´ll just go with the value...

PICK: Santos AH +1 @1,752 1 unit

bing · 05-29-13, 03:31 PM

Sao Paulo x Vasco

Vasco had a decent performance against Portuguesa last round. They played so much better than the games in the Carioca League. It seems that the period of practice has given coach Autuori the necessary time to start building his team. They´ll come to today´s game with a much needed confidence to face Sao Paulo in their territoy. Last 3 times they played as visitors they won 2 and had 1 draw. Last 6 games between these teams ended in an under.
Sao Paulo will be missing midfielder Jadson who joins the national squad. Midfielder Ganso will be missing too, cause of injury. Edson Silva received the red card last game and he´s already a replacement so coach Ney Franco will probably start with Paulo Miranda. Recently acquired midfielder Roni will be playing in Jadson place. The rest of the team will be the same that defeated Ponte Preta in the first round.

Even with the absences of Sao Paulo they still have the better team. Luis FAbiano is always dangerous and Osvaldo is in great form. Vasco did play a good game last round, but their opponent is one of the top candidates to be relegated this season and Portuguesa is still a team in formation. Vasco managed to win the game with a goal from Tenorio and imo goalie Gledson from Portuguesa just failed at that play. Although Vasco has shown improvement, Sao Paulo plays very well in their field and they have the best players. I was going to play the under, but I´ve been doing so poorly with the totals picks that I´ll just stick to the better side on this one.

PICK: Sao Paulo -0,75 @1,84 1 unit

stemellor · 05-29-13, 03:41 PM

Good luck with these picks. Very detailed analysis.

bing · 05-29-13, 03:53 PM

Flamengo x Ponte Preta

Flamengo played well against Santos and missed tons of opportunities to score and just had a draw for the first round. They´ll be facing one of their worst visitors for the last years. Ponte Preta hasn´t lost last eleven games they played against Flamengo and last 5 as visitors. Ponte Preta hasn´t lost this year as visitors yet. That´s some dangerous statistics, cause they´ll eventually lose sometime but you just don´t know the time.

Despite the stats, both teams are at the same level. Ponte Preta is a well balanced team, with solid defense and potential to score with always dangerous striker William. Jorginho has really improved Flamengo and they have more power in the front with Marcelo Moreno joining the Flamengo team.

I like the draw here, but to be safer I´ll go with..

PICK: Ponte Preta AH+1 @1,667 1 unit

bing · 05-29-13, 03:54 PM

Originally posted by stemellor

Good luck with these picks. Very detailed analysis.

thanks stemellor!!!

Akatana · 05-29-13, 03:59 PM

Thank you bing again for some very educative and detailed analysis. I have a confession to make, I've taken Botafogo lol
Bol

bing · 05-29-13, 04:12 PM

Bahia x Coritiba - Coritiba pk @1,926

Looks like a draw again...Bahia will be playing better but Coritiba is better organized and a better team. Coritiba plays well in Bahias territory but last 5 games were a draw...Bahia defense allows to many goals, so I´ll just stick with the better side this time.

Goias x Corinthians - Goias -0,25 @1,99

Corinthians will be missing midfielder Paulinho who will be joining the national squad. Big loss here, lately Corinthians strikers can´t find their way to the net and Paulinho has been saving them. Danilo won´t be playing either and Alessandro as well. Goias had a humiliating loss to Cruzeiro and 3 of the goals were headers. That´s defensive mistakes. Players promised that they´ll have a different attitude the next game.
Corinthians hasn´t won last 6 games as visitors, home factor is very important, and the lack of Paulinho and Danilo worries me...Guerrero won´t be playing either and Pato will be the substitute. Corinthians is so much stronger than Goias, and they do have the better players, but they haven´t been playing well lately and I just can´t back them without Paulinho and Danilo in the team, plus home factor plays a huge importance in this match. I´ll be backing Goias this time.

Won´t be playing Nautico and Vitoria game. BOL Guys!!

bing · 05-29-13, 04:14 PM

Originally posted by Akatana

Thank you bing again for some very educative and detailed analysis. I have a confession to make, I've taken Botafogo lol
Bol

Bol Akatana!!! You´re probably on the right side, Inter´s game is the only one I really like!!!

Akatana · 05-29-13, 04:32 PM

Originally posted by bing

Bol Akatana!!! You´re probably on the right side, Inter´s game is the only one I really like!!!

Thank's you too Bing. I'm also on Inter. Bol

bing · 05-29-13, 05:21 PM

Late minute news...

Seedorf is not playing for Botafogo.

Akatana · 05-29-13, 07:32 PM

I don't intend to exaggerate! but I want to praise All

Cruzeiro, Botafogo and Sao Paulo, all of them. The Brasileiro momentum continues. This round was bound to be a whole lot more intense and believe me it was with many more puzzle pieces to solve than the first round, but i'm glad it was another solid strike. All i can say is just wow at how these teams play their football.

bing · 05-30-13, 11:24 AM

3-2-2 +1,45 units yesterday

Serie A record: 9-3-3 +7,05 units

Serie B record 2-0-9 -5,55 units

Only Inter AH-1 for today!!!

Akatana · 05-30-13, 12:56 PM

Nice bing, I understand that as you stated yourself the Serie B is a little more tough to cap than Serie A and it's early so unlucky with those, but boy are you as solid as fk on the Serie A. I have to say you've helped me learn a lot about the Brasileiro which i'm extremely passionate about, more than any other football campaign. I've also taken Inter -1 and Mineiro -1 in the Libertadores as well. I expect both Inter and Mineiro to come out firing tonight. Bol

bing · 05-30-13, 01:48 PM

Originally posted by Akatana

Nice bing, I understand that as you stated yourself the Serie B is a little more tough to cap than Serie A and it's early so unlucky with those, but boy are you as solid as fk on the Serie A. I have to say you've helped me learn a lot about the Brasileiro which i'm extremely passionate about, more than any other football campaign. I've also taken Inter -1 and Mineiro -1 in the Libertadores as well. I expect both Inter and Mineiro to come out firing tonight. Bol

Thanks Akatana. I believe Serie B will be profitable very soon too, I wasn´t careful enough for the first rounds...lesson learned!!!
Hope Inter delievers today and Mineiro -1 seem to be solid too. Atletico is a beast is their own stadium and Tijuana might feel the pressure...I´ll tail you on that play myself!!! GL!!

Akatana · 05-30-13, 02:03 PM

BOL to us and Mineiro!!! (Although i'm sure they don't need it tonight) I thought really hard before making the -1 Mineiro play, but then again, as you know yourself they're taking Copa Libertadores very seriously, resting their top players against Coritiba being a clear indication of that, and although they messed up the beginning of the game away at Tijuana (not making excuses for them, but i think the occasion and that stupid turf had a lot to do with that)--- you have to give them credit for making it level in the end. And you're absolutely right about them being a BEAST at home! And i'm pretty sure they'll bring out that BEAST against Tijuana tonight. i'm sure their aim tonight is to murder Tijuana with that kind of atmosphere. May the momentum be on our's and their side yet again tonight.

andyrocha90 · 05-30-13, 02:48 PM

Dont underestimate Tijuana. This could easily end a draw. Coach turku has won the copa sudaamerica before. Sure, not the same thing, but this coach knows what he is doing and if it wasnt for some late game mistakes, tijuana could have been up 2-0. Tijuana threw away their season just for libertadores and time after time they continue to surprise in this cup. People continue to underestimate mexican teams. Will wait til I can maybe get +1.5 and will throw a little on +776 moneyline.

Akatana · 05-30-13, 03:38 PM

No one is underestimating Tijuana or mexican team's (Well at least i'm not) that's exactly why i had a tough time making my decision on this. surely Tijuana is a team to be cautious with and surely the value play's are on them no doubt. But i just hope that Atletico Mineiro teach them a lesson tonight that's all!

bing · 05-30-13, 03:47 PM

I believe mexican teams are very strong, but they play CL with invitation and they don´t get a spot to Japan if they win it. In the future we might see some of the MLS teams being invited to Libertadores as well. Besides that, Tijuana biggest advantage is when they play in their own field, and that is mainly because it´s a synthetic field that southamerican clubs are not used to. They played two brazilian teams in this CL and they managed to beat Palmeiras with a 2-1 victory as visitors but lost to Corinthians 3-0 without much resistance. Palmeiras is not a strong team at the moment and their goal is to be promoted to Serie A next year. Atletico is more likely to be compared to Corinthians and they´re probably the best team of the country at the moment. Besides, Atletico has been undefeated for over 35 games at Independencia field. Stadium will be packed today and Atletico will be pressuring Tijuana from minute 1 and even if they score they won´t be backing down. The down side for Atletico is that they play so offensively that they always manage to allow goals for the opponent too. Tijuana have to score goals because a 0-0 or 1-1 draw will qualify Atletico because of away goals criteria. OVer 2,5 @1,76 is a very attractive bet for this game. I highly doubt Tijuana will be able to draw or win this game, but it´s soccer and a simple red card, or bad call from the referre or even a mistake done by a player can change all aspects of the game.

I´ll be playing over 2,5 and Mineiro -1

bing · 05-30-13, 07:30 PM

Nice, Inter scored two early goals and missed a ton of opportunities to make this game less stressfull for me, but they were never challenged by Criciuma and we hit our first 5 units plays!!!

Serie A record is now:10-3-3 +11,68 units!!!

Bluedragon · 05-30-13, 07:33 PM

TO CONFIRM...Nacional won, right? Final Score 2-0? B365 has my -1 and ML (parlayed) as losses.

bing · 05-30-13, 07:34 PM

Originally posted by Bluedragon

TO CONFIRM...Nacional won, right? Final Score 2-0? B365 has my -1 and ML (parlayed) as losses.

Yeah, Internacional 2 x 0 Criciuma game just ended.