Champions league final! Dortmund vs bayern

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  • COLLEGEBALLGURU
    SBR Hustler
    • 09-27-12
    • 83

    #1
    Champions league final! Dortmund vs bayern
    can't believe no thread yet!

    Bayern -.5/-1
    Total is 2.5/3

    who you got? it is the year of the under dogs but screw that
    I'm pounding Bayern and the over , also like Both teams to score
  • FootballAlchemy
    Restricted User
    • 05-24-13
    • 1

    #2
    I have Bayern as favourites with 51% chance of victory (over 90 minutes), with Draw @ 29% & Dortmund @ 20%

    In terms of value, over 2.5 goals looks good at ~1.8
    Comment
    • onemoregoal
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 02-04-13
      • 8149

      #3
      If I played, I think there is value on Bayern Munich to score both halves @ 2.60ish.
      You would imagine they go for an early goal and I really cant see them just sitting on it, Dortmund wont let them!
      2-1 ish Bayern, but maybe Im being "square".
      Comment
      • Akatana
        SBR MVP
        • 05-05-13
        • 1307

        #4
        Although final's are final's and bla bla bla,( I also see value on the over 2.5(well personally i wouldn't go as far as calling this value, rather something that is extremely likely to happen considering the style and the consistency of the styles of both teams and the similarities of both the teams style's and on top of that the occasion. These are fiery teams, the top 2 explosive side's in Europe! they are not teams that favor boring position play and they both have the biggest Attacking/Counter-Attacking/pressing/direct playing qualities in Europe and unless they are on crack which hopefully they will not be, they will -go all in- in this final and the chance's of seeing 3 or more goals in this match is more than probable, this is what i am considering. I'm still shopping around, but will bet it soon though no doubt.
        Comment
        • bing
          SBR Sharp
          • 03-03-13
          • 252

          #5
          I´m with Bayern ML @1,75

          but if you look at their recent matches Draw seems to be the best play...hope not...Bayern is so much better and they should win this match under 90 minutes!!! GO BAYERN!!!
          Comment
          • camelbreath$
            SBR MVP
            • 12-04-10
            • 3267

            #6
            OVER 2.5 huge play
            Comment
            • easyliving
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 06-25-12
              • 8876

              #7
              the value is with Dortmund to lift the cup. you never know which way finals will go.

              for those of you betting the over especially at 2.75 the odds are too short and finals in general tend to be low scoring. I would recommend BTS instead of the over if your gonna bet on goals.
              Comment
              • Akatana
                SBR MVP
                • 05-05-13
                • 1307

                #8
                Originally posted by easyliving
                the value is with Dortmund to lift the cup. you never know which way finals will go.

                for those of you betting the over especially at 2.75 the odds are too short and finals in general tend to be low scoring. I would recommend BTS instead of the over if your gonna bet on goals.
                Agreed, odds for Dortmund to lift the cup is around 2/1 now that is value considering that Dortmund is not as much a dog as everyone believes, even without Gotze. They are indeed very solid and can create surprises with this being the final. My personal play though is over 2.5 going big on that, it's a fair shot to make.
                Comment
                • vasilli07
                  SBR MVP
                  • 05-08-11
                  • 3955

                  #9
                  I'm going big on Bayern. Surely they can't lose 3 times in a row in a CL finals?

                  If they can't win it this season with such a strong team, they will never win it ever again.
                  Comment
                  • Akatana
                    SBR MVP
                    • 05-05-13
                    • 1307

                    #10
                    Originally posted by vasilli07
                    I'm going big on Bayern. Surely they can't lose 3 times in a row in a CL finals?

                    If they can't win it this season with such a strong team, they will never win it ever again.
                    I think saying that if they don't win it this time around, "they will never win it ever again" is a bit of an exaggeration lol
                    Comment
                    • vasilli07
                      SBR MVP
                      • 05-08-11
                      • 3955

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Akatana
                      I think saying that if they don't win it this time around, "they will never win it ever again" is a bit of an exaggeration lol
                      I don't think so since this is probably 1 of their best and most dominant team in history. I know the core of the team are still going to be together next season but with a new coach with new ideas, who knows what will happen?
                      Comment
                      • zizoudane10
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 03-27-12
                        • 7272

                        #12
                        A CL-Final definitely is a no bet for me. 100%
                        But I'm rooting for Bayern
                        Comment
                        • huakhainguyen
                          SBR Rookie
                          • 05-15-12
                          • 21

                          #13
                          Bayern ATS and Over.
                          Comment
                          • DarkNite
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 10-12-09
                            • 5023

                            #14
                            I have learned my lesson. Still remember Real Madrid and Over, to win Copa del Rey, and ManCity to win FA cup in England.
                            Red Carddddddddddddddddddd.
                            Whistleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.
                            When Bayern Munich plays against Dortmund, it's draw 1-1, 0-0.
                            But in this match up, I think Bayern to win in reg. time by the score of 1-0, 2-0. I like Over but .......then I will have to go with what I like.
                            Comment
                            • Sport_Fish
                              SBR MVP
                              • 12-06-10
                              • 4079

                              #15
                              BTTS @ only -138

                              Trap of the year, or easiest bet ever. I like my chances with the latter. Each team is good enough to manufacture a goal in 90 mins.
                              Comment
                              • oldscho0led
                                SBR MVP
                                • 01-18-11
                                • 1407

                                #16
                                I like under 2.5 on this one
                                Comment
                                • Sawyer
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 06-01-09
                                  • 7761

                                  #17
                                  *In last 20 Champions League Finals, both teams scored only %55.
                                  *Since 2002, Favourite managed win only %54 in 90 minutes. When extra time and penalties added, it increases to %72.

                                  I see a nice value on Draw here. When two big offensive juggernaughts clash, these kind of meetings can result with very dull, low scoring games. My call is Draw after 90 minutes..probably 1-1 score. Odds are great!
                                  Comment
                                  • Sawyer
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 06-01-09
                                    • 7761

                                    #18
                                    In Final games, nobody bets on draw. Everybody fancy a side to win. Why? Because draw is a very boooring bet. Nobody bets draw. So? You can find a great value on draw. 1-1 is the call!
                                    Comment
                                    • Akatana
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 05-05-13
                                      • 1307

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Sawyer
                                      *In last 20 Champions League Finals, both teams scored only %55.
                                      *Since 2002, Favourite managed win only %54 in 90 minutes. When extra time and penalties added, it increases to %72.

                                      I see a nice value on Draw here. When two big offensive juggernaughts clash, these kind of meetings can result with very dull, low scoring games. My call is Draw after 90 minutes..probably 1-1 score. Odds are great!
                                      Good post, very true, good stats. I completely agree, however i have a feeling the over 2.5 in this meeting might hit, but we'll see tonight.
                                      Comment
                                      • TwoWays
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 03-24-10
                                        • 13145

                                        #20
                                        There's going to be a landslide of bets on Bayern and the over, not a good feeling. Didn't they draw both times in league play?
                                        Comment
                                        • Sawyer
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 06-01-09
                                          • 7761

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by TwoWays
                                          There's going to be a landslide of bets on Bayern and the over, not a good feeling. Didn't they draw both times in league play?
                                          Yeah. Both games ended 1-1.

                                          Public pounding Bayern like crazy! Bayern odds dropped to 1.73 from 1.80. Then raised a little bit thru 1.82. Now below 1.80 again.

                                          Without doubt, big money on over & bayern. Books will make a killing in case of a 1-1 score You know which side i'm on
                                          Comment
                                          • hotelis
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 05-31-12
                                            • 1995

                                            #22
                                            yeah it is hard to imagine that books will be having a bad day on the CL final.
                                            Comment
                                            • Akatana
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 05-05-13
                                              • 1307

                                              #23
                                              Yeah, especially with so many different viewpoints lol everyone thinks something different about this game lol surely the books are gonna cash
                                              Comment
                                              • vasilli07
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 05-08-11
                                                • 3955

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by TwoWays
                                                There's going to be a landslide of bets on Bayern and the over, not a good feeling. Didn't they draw both times in league play?
                                                But in both cup competition they played this season, Bayern won.
                                                Comment
                                                • camelbreath$
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 12-04-10
                                                  • 3267

                                                  #25
                                                  Normally I would think 1-1 or 1-0... But Bayern will not risk the heartbreak of past years by playing for a low scoring match or risk having the match end in penalties like vs. Chelsea... remember that many of these are the same players who were crying on the pitch when Drogba daggered them!! They will attack with fury and Dortmund will counterattack with Reus and Lewandowski on the break... we shall see 4 goals in regulation!!

                                                  Comment
                                                  • SportJoker
                                                    SBR Rookie
                                                    • 03-07-13
                                                    • 27

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by FootballAlchemy
                                                    I have Bayern as favourites with 51% chance of victory (over 90 minutes), with Draw @ 29% & Dortmund @ 20%

                                                    In terms of value, over 2.5 goals looks good at ~1.8
                                                    Hi,

                                                    How did you find those percentage? Only 51% for Bayern, I thought it would be more. Their offensive and defensive efficiencies are better than Dortmund!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • camelbreath$
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 12-04-10
                                                      • 3267

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by SportJoker
                                                      Hi,

                                                      How did you find those percentage? Only 51% for Bayern, I thought it would be more. Their offensive and defensive efficiencies are better than Dortmund!
                                                      Not certain, but I think 51% is to win in 90 minutes, and around 68% to claim the trophy (includes ET and PK's)
                                                      Comment
                                                      • eXon
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 01-02-12
                                                        • 973

                                                        #28
                                                        Over 2,5 for me, going big on that one, hoping for a hell of a game with loads of goals! Good luck!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • loodachris99
                                                          SBR Sharp
                                                          • 11-04-11
                                                          • 414

                                                          #29
                                                          I have Dortmund + 400 1st half with my local... Worth it to take a flyer on that for a small amount? Or just throwing away money?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • hotelis
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 05-31-12
                                                            • 1995

                                                            #30
                                                            bayern o1.5 goals is my play
                                                            Comment
                                                            • lucasdawg
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 02-19-13
                                                              • 3399

                                                              #31
                                                              i went bayern ML and bayern 3-0
                                                              Comment
                                                              • SportJoker
                                                                SBR Rookie
                                                                • 03-07-13
                                                                • 27

                                                                #32
                                                                Thks!

                                                                how do you find those percentage? models?

                                                                I'm trying to build some on parlayz.com so if you can help me!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • swordsandtequila
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 02-23-12
                                                                  • 9757

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Played over 2.5 and btts last week. No Chelsea this year, neither team is going to sit back and hope to get lucky, especially Bayern. Be very surprised if we don't see at least 3 goals. My two cents (and that's about what it's worth ).
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • DarkNite
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 10-12-09
                                                                    • 5023

                                                                    #34
                                                                    UEFA Champions League 25.May
                                                                    13:45:00
                                                                    Dortmund 4.3
                                                                    4.8
                                                                    4
                                                                    4.1
                                                                    1.93
                                                                    1.81
                                                                    B Munich € 6.567M
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • DarkNite
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 10-12-09
                                                                      • 5023

                                                                      #35
                                                                      2:45pm
                                                                      odds bet
                                                                      11108
                                                                      11107
                                                                      10 Borussia Dortmund
                                                                      Bayern Munchen
                                                                      Draw
                                                                      99
                                                                      548
                                                                      15%
                                                                      85%
                                                                      216
                                                                      723
                                                                      102
                                                                      21%
                                                                      69%
                                                                      10%
                                                                      O 344
                                                                      U 55
                                                                      86%
                                                                      14%
                                                                      -0.5 (-130) [Open: -0.5 (-101) ] +0.5 (+120) [Open: +0.5 (-105) ]
                                                                      O 2.5 (-125) [Open: O 2.5 (-115) ] U 2.5 (+110) [Open: U 2.5 (+105) ]
                                                                      -135 [Open: -101] +365 [Open: +310]
                                                                      +300 [Open: +265]
                                                                      Be the judge!
                                                                      If Dortmund wins, bookies win. If Bayern wins, bookies lose.
                                                                      Comment
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