In play thread

onemoregoal · 02-27-13, 03:40 PM

Aurora v Club Bolivar - Bolivar total team goals @ 3.05. bolivia EDIT: Bolivar total team goals over 2.5 @ 3.05
Aurora have major problems, three players red carded last game who cant play. They were beaten 0-6 last game at home, but the red cards would have affected this, I cant find the times the red cards were given but they were 0-4 at half time... Auroroa also have no manager it seems...
Major problem is that Bolivar have been hammered in from 3.25 to win into 1.70 - so no value... Just thought a fun bet could work here, Bolivar to score 3 or more seems ok...
Personally I am going to bet in play, see how they start - can 3 missing players really affect the price that much, is it fixed???Best to see how they start...
unless someone can convince me further for a pre match bet?

onemoregoal · 02-27-13, 06:23 PM

Bolivar being nailed too much, i dont like it when something gets backed this big... Especially in a questionable league.

onemoregoal · 02-27-13, 08:41 PM

Bolivar up 1-3 already so the above would have won. Shame I didnt take it, as I was annoyed I wasnt one of the first to take Bolivar to win @ 3.25 (kick off price 1.55) Bolivar total team goals over 2.5 then must have been around 7.00!
Another red card for Aurora tonight, thats 4 in 2 games - Im not sure how many games you get suspended for down there for red cards? If anyone knows that would be nice?

onemoregoal · 02-28-13, 05:59 AM

Sao Paulo v The Strongest - Sao Paulo total team goals over 2.5 @ 1.80
Big quality gap, Bolivia sides tend to suck away from home where they have no altitude advantage. A lot will depend on how hungry Sao Paulo are - most bettors will be on Sao Paulo tonight, I dont really like public bets but it should come in at reasonable odds.
Over 3 goals asian @ 1.75 is ok - but i want the 3-0 scoreline on my side as i think its a realistic one. SP can score 5 if they want, though!

Shredder · 02-28-13, 06:18 AM

How can the over 3 be lower priced then the over 2.5? And where are you from? I often see those southern america games but I find it so hard to predict and don't have much info and knowledge about those leagues.

onemoregoal · 02-28-13, 06:28 AM

The first one is Sao Paulo to score over 2.5, just that team. So there is no advantage for the strongest scoring.
The other one includes all goals.
I dont have much knowledge, either. But everything Im reading points to a heavy Sao Paulo victory - the only problem I have which applies to all teams is that they dont really care if they win 2-0 or 5-0....depends how it goes on the day.

Shredder · 02-28-13, 06:34 AM

Ah ok thanks for the explanation. Good luck today!

onemoregoal · 03-01-13, 08:00 PM

Some generous prices for the opening round of the Estonia league. I am interested what Pinnacle and co will have odds as, I suspect these are too good at the euro books... main risk is that its the first round of games...

Flora Tallin v Tallina Kalev - Over 3.5 goals @ 2.40 too high at sportingbet. Recent h2hs the price has been around 1.80
Levadia Tallin v Tammeka Tartu - Levadia team goals over 2.5 1.80 way too high, over 3.5 goals in game is also high @ 2.40 same as above
Paide v Nomme Kalju - Nomme Kalju total team goals over 2.5 2.20, is a joke price paddy power. Nomme Kalju can score 4-5-6 here, they just lost the super cup and they will be wounded. -1.5 handicap is also good at 1.83

Im going to put bets on Flora Tallin v Tallina Kalev game over 3.5 @ 2.40 and may trade out come kick off.
Same with Levadia game v Tammeka Tartu, backing over 3.5 @ 2.40 and if i can trade before kick off for small profit, i will, if not i will have to ride it out.
Nomme Kalju total team goals over 2.5 @ 2.20 is the one i will keep as a bet.
I trade a lot in play, so the above may lose but if im in a crazy good position like 2-0 after 20 mins or something - my stake is usually safe.

Cyprus - AEL Limassol -1.5 handicap against Paphos who are fielding youth team players also seems too big at paddy power price of 1.67 but i usually like to double up - but the price is generous as its 1.40 most places. Maybe -2.5 is worth a small bet.

Anyone who follows Estonia/Latvia/Lithuania leagues, any input welcome. Theres money in these leagues, but first round is very risky.

onemoregoal · 03-02-13, 09:29 AM

"Nomme Kalju total team goals over 2.5 @ 2.20 is the one i will keep as a bet."

Winner! Left it late but Neemelo scores for Kalju late on and they take the match 2-3. The others I only took to trade, but I dont think Pinnacle and the other good books are offering odds. And they arent in play I dont think, anyway I will have to ride those out.
The Cyprus game odds have shortened for AEL Limassol -1.5 handicap and the odds of 1.67 look good now, but didnt take this.

onemoregoal · 03-02-13, 11:59 AM

"Flora Tallin v Tallina Kalev game over 3.5 @ 2.40 and may trade out come kick off."
Another winner, just finished 4-1. Flora scored 3 with 10 men, boom. Wasnt in play, so no need to trade

onemoregoal · 03-02-13, 12:54 PM

"Cyprus - AEL Limassol -1.5 handicap against Paphos who are fielding youth team players also seems too big at paddy power price of 1.67 but i usually like to double up - but the price is generous as its 1.40 most places. Maybe -2.5 is worth a small bet."

AEL up 4-0 at half time

... Levadia Tallin game could be the loser today 1-0 after 25

onemoregoal · 03-02-13, 01:42 PM

penalty tartu...3-1 and counting in my last game
All winners at good odds, no pussy bet odds here

onemoregoal · 03-02-13, 04:18 PM

Blooming v Aurora - Blooming total team goals over 2.5 @ 3.20....

I dont really follow Bolivia but I wanted to get in early on this one.
Aurora look in bad shape with poor discipline and some problems with management. They are weak away losing 3/4 quite badly and conceding 3 goals on 2/4 away games. They also come into this on very bad form conceding 9 goals in their last 2 games. Blooming seem to be a home side, only losing 3/24 home games and they scored 4 in their last home to what I think is a similar team to Aurora in Laz Paz.
Maybe 3 goals from the home side is too much to ask, but the odds are worth the risk imo and I wouldnt be surprised if it drops come kick off tomorrow.
Consider over 3 goals @ 2.10 and Penalty in match @ 3.50.
If anyone has any opinion on this game, or follows Bolivia - please comment!

onemoregoal · 03-02-13, 09:28 PM

FK Baku v Ravan - over 3.5 goals @ 2.65 Azerbaijan.
Bayern Munich -1.5 handicap @ 1.80

onemoregoal · 03-03-13, 08:32 AM

Azerbaijan game lost. 2-1. Gutted as I would have got stake back at 1-1 (min19) or even 2-1 (min55) but it wasnt in play.
Over 2.5 would have paid at 2.00 and over 2.75 was 2.25. Really annoyed - thought Id find it in play, otherwise would have gone hard on the over 2.5.

onemoregoal · 03-03-13, 12:38 PM

-2 UNITS Bayern not clearing the handicap hurt. Blooming to score over 2.5 will be useful but its a long shot - some money coming for Blooming but not as much as I anticipated. Will probably end up -3 units but if Blooming manage it - back into positive for this thread.

onemoregoal · 03-03-13, 07:52 PM

Originally posted by onemoregoal

Blooming v Aurora - Blooming total team goals over 2.5 @ 3.20....

I dont really follow Bolivia but I wanted to get in early on this one.
Aurora look in bad shape with poor discipline and some problems with management. They are weak away losing 3/4 quite badly and conceding 3 goals on 2/4 away games. They also come into this on very bad form conceding 9 goals in their last 2 games. Blooming seem to be a home side, only losing 3/24 home games and they scored 4 in their last home to what I think is a similar team to Aurora in Laz Paz.
Maybe 3 goals from the home side is too much to ask, but the odds are worth the risk imo and I wouldnt be surprised if it drops come kick off tomorrow.
Consider over 3 goals @ 2.10 and Penalty in match @ 3.50.
If anyone has any opinion on this game, or follows Bolivia - please comment!

2-0 half time, red card for Aurora at 41st minute (their 5th red in 3 games!) How many will Blooming go on to score second half? 2,3? They were 1.55 favourites, surely 2 in the second half?
Nope, nothing - just needed them to score 1 against 10 men who are shit for a 3.20 shot to win..... Match finishes 2-0, no luck at all today.

onemoregoal · 03-06-13, 09:12 AM

0-248:02

KF Laci
KS Bylis Ballsh
Draw

-0.5

1.26

+0.5

3.00

o3.5/4

1.21

u3.5/4

3.22

+2

so dodgy, why are these games even allowed?

onemoregoal · 03-06-13, 09:14 AM

Skenderbeu Korce are 1.83 on ladbrokes, 1.55 on 188bet - but i got owned last time so leaving it lol

Kukesi0
-
0Skenderbeu

HOME
3/1

DRAW
9/4

AWAY
5/6

Match betting

onemoregoal · 03-06-13, 10:21 AM

Both Albanian games can in of course, i didnt play, of course..
MYPA v Honka - half time 2-0 = second half goals over 1.5 @ 2.2 1 unit
Its Finland, they are probably indoors and its a cup game. Honka down to 10 men but theres not much between the sides and i wouldnt rule out a goal from them (3.25)
2-0 is a dead score though, but the odds are a bit high for a finland cup game with already 2 goals in it

onemoregoal · 03-06-13, 12:08 PM

Originally posted by onemoregoal

Both Albanian games can in of course, i didnt play, of course..
MYPA v Honka - half time 2-0 = second half goals over 1.5 @ 2.2 1 unit
Its Finland, they are probably indoors and its a cup game. Honka down to 10 men but theres not much between the sides and i wouldnt rule out a goal from them (3.25)
2-0 is a dead score though, but the odds are a bit high for a finland cup game with already 2 goals in it

Easy money at good odds of 2.2. Honka also managed to score @ 3.25

onemoregoal · 03-06-13, 12:42 PM

Belgium u16 v Slovakia u16 half time 4-2 - second half over 1.5 goals @ 1.92 willhill 1 unit

Ok its a loser game, but some kids going in 4-2 at half time - 2 more goals has to be worth a shot at those odds. Major problem is that its only 40 mins second half, but still they managed 6 in the 1st half ffs

onemoregoal · 03-06-13, 01:36 PM

Originally posted by onemoregoal

Belgium u16 v Slovakia u16 half time 4-2 - second half over 1.5 goals @ 1.92 willhill 1 unit

Ok its a loser game, but some kids going in 4-2 at half time - 2 more goals has to be worth a shot at those odds. Major problem is that its only 40 mins second half, but still they managed 6 in the 1st half ffs

Not my finest hour, never touch these games usually but got sucked in. Sucked in bad......

onemoregoal · 03-06-13, 01:43 PM

Originally posted by onemoregoal

Not my finest hour, never touch these games usually but got sucked in. Sucked in bad......

This won! haha, late goals came in on 79th and 80+4 penalty, just awesome, I caught a break!
Match finishes 5-3

pellumb341 · 03-06-13, 02:10 PM

Both Albanian games can in of course, i didnt play, of course..

hey buddy , i am from Albania and albanian league/cup is 100% fixed.The european matches involving albanian teams are 100% fixed too.

onemoregoal · 03-06-13, 02:32 PM

I would have taken Skenderbeu K to win when they were losing 1-0 it was 3/1 on ladbrokes! but they pulled the game, SK won 2-3 lol..
i like it when they do that, if they go behind but were being backed heavily - its worth a risk.. but i was too late

onemoregoal · 03-06-13, 03:34 PM

Woking v Mansfield - half time 0-1 - second half over 1.5 goals @ 1.95 WillHill - 1 unit

Woking averaging 2 goals per home game with Mansfield having the best form of the league coming to this as the favorites. 1-2 seems a likely final score, I don't think Mansfield will score more if it is 0-2 so will most likely need Woking to score here.

onemoregoal · 03-06-13, 04:49 PM

Originally posted by onemoregoal

Woking v Mansfield - half time 0-1 - second half over 1.5 goals @ 1.95 WillHill - 1 unit

Woking averaging 2 goals per home game with Mansfield having the best form of the league coming to this as the favorites. 1-2 seems a likely final score, I don't think Mansfield will score more if it is 0-2 so will most likely need Woking to score here.

Another winner for today. Match finishes 1-2 Mansfield

onemoregoal · 03-06-13, 05:33 PM

Fluminese v Huachipato - Fluminese total team goals over 2.5 @ 2.40 0.5 unit

Meh, its a risky one. But if Huachipato fall behind early I think Fluminese will be able to put a few past this side who will need to attack as they are already 1-2 down in the tie. Flum should be good for 2 goals, needs a bit of luck and I wouldnt rule out a penalty for the home side which would help! There will be lots of cards and Im hoping the away side will get pissed off and collapse.
Depends on how it starts and if Flum get a goal before 30 min mark. Its worth a small risk with nothing interesting me tomorrow.

onemoregoal · 03-06-13, 05:43 PM

Just realised its a group format, not a 2 legged tie; they played each other last round of games....
Doesnt really change much, other than if goal difference counts or if it goes on h2h, probably h2h though..

onemoregoal · 03-06-13, 08:27 PM

0-0 after 25, this ainto going to well...

onemoregoal · 03-06-13, 08:28 PM

motherflumper! goal disallowed for flum

onemoregoal · 03-06-13, 09:28 PM

NO cards? really? get fighting, do something, this is so lame

onemoregoal · 03-06-13, 09:50 PM

Originally posted by onemoregoal

Fluminese v Huachipato - Fluminese total team goals over 2.5 @ 2.40 0.5 unit

Meh, its a risky one. But if Huachipato fall behind early I think Fluminese will be able to put a few past this side who will need to attack as they are already 1-2 down in the tie. Flum should be good for 2 goals, needs a bit of luck and I wouldnt rule out a penalty for the home side which would help! There will be lots of cards and Im hoping the away side will get pissed off and collapse.
Depends on how it starts and if Flum get a goal before 30 min mark. Its worth a small risk with nothing interesting me tomorrow.

Looks like it will finish 1-1.. -0.5 unit.

onemoregoal · 03-07-13, 09:31 AM

UAE LEAGUE - AL Wasl v Al Ain - over 3.5 goals in match @ 2.10 -1 UNIT

I see some value here, anything over evens has to be value. Al Ain have scored 57 in 17 games, mainly due to Gyan and the Australian player Brosque, the former is simply too good for this league - Gyan probably just wanted the money as he was an EPL player not long ago at Sunderland.
Al Wasl i know nothing of, but they have averaged 2 goals per home game and thats the nature of the league - its a high scoring one so even mid table sides will manage goals - I will most likely need the home side to score one at least and play their part in this game.
Al Ain have been quiet on the goals front though, and their form is average. Thats the risk though, but you get good odds - I just feel Al Ain are due a big score here and that the home side should manage to get on the scoresheet at some point - they are playing Al Ain at a good time, so anything is possible.