Katchase's Soccer Sides

[KATCHASE]

ANDERLECHT wins and XANTHI loses making it -2.4 units on the day. That sucks. I hate losing, especially after 7 winning days in a row, but I guess losses are inevitable. I was so tempted to chase on two other games I liked today (Everton and Dep. Quito), but decided to lay off. Both of these games won, making today even more bitter sweet. Oh well...back to the grind tomorrow!

Overall DNB Record: 25-6-12 [+6.35 units]

[KATCHASE]

Thursday, January 31:

IRAN DIVISION 1
BUSHEHR - DNB @ 1.25 (3 units to win 0.75 units)

[Vaughany]

bad luck with Xanthi. Im probably gonna be on Eskisehispor PK again today against Trabzonspor.

[KATCHASE]

The only other game I'm really liking today is Leicester (to win @1.53), but I'm not sure I can pull the trigger at DNB odds of 1.17.

[checkit]

Have you thought about back testing this system using to win odds instead of DNB odds?

[KATCHASE]

Yes, I've considered this . But at a glance, I'm not sure it would be profitable since I tend to hit a lot of draws.

My DNB record (including the draw today) is currently 25 wins, 6 losses and 13 draws. If I had bet all these games to win the record would become 25 wins and 19 losses (56.8%). If I've done my math right, I would need average odds of 1.76 for each game to break even...


25 wins x 0.76 units (per win) = 19 units profit

Less

19 losses x 1 unit (per loss) = 19 units loss

= 0 units profit

[Vaughany]

I need to do something similar soon as I play mostly DNBs.

[ShotgunRua]

I've sat for ages going through past plays and looking at odds and i'm fairly convinced that grouping all DNB plays into 2 team parlays is the optimal system.

At Katchase has said, draws crop up very frequently, so it's extremely difficult to make money with straight plays.

Individual DNBs require an ungodly strike rate in order to make money as 2 losses in a row could wipe out the profit from 6 wins easily.

I'm actually having some success betting on +2 Asian handicap for underdogs. Sometimes there is serious value as it's not thqt often the favourite destroys the dog that badly.

[KATCHASE]

The reason I've chosen to go with a DNB strategy is because at average DNB odds of 1.33, I need to win 3 out of every 4 games I play (disregarding the draws, of course). This means that I need a win percentage of about 75% to break even. Right now my win percentage is 80.6% (25 wins & 6 losses).

Therefore, my plan is to stick as closely as possible to DNB odds of 1.33 and try to maintain a greater than 75% win rate.

[skidrow]

Thursday, January 31:

IRAN DIVISION 1
BUSHEHR - DNB @ 1.25 (3 units to win 0.75 units)

amazing i see no reference to any iranian football on pinnacle....

[KATCHASE]

I'm actually having some success betting on +2 Asian handicap for underdogs. Sometimes there is serious value as it's not thqt often the favourite destroys the dog that badly.

Sounds interesting. Like everything, selection strategy (or "picking your spots") is key.

[KATCHASE]

I need to do something similar soon as I play mostly DNBs.

Vaughany...I can see you being really successful using a DNB strategy similar to mine. My selections rely mainly on stats such past performance and line movements of which I compile mounds of data. Your knowledge and insight into the games and players would definitely give you an added edge.

[ShotgunRua]

Sounds interesting. Like everything, selection strategy (or "picking your spots") is key.

Yeah definitely, it's interesting though from the following perspective;

*Your record for DNB plays is 25 wins, 6 losses and 13 draws
*Straight away betting +1 or +2 on the opposite play means you would have won 19 out of 44 plays (just under 50%)
*Of the other 25 bets, how many of those were won by more than 1 or 2 goals?? Obviously I could go back through the thread and find out, however I'd guess the majority of the time the favourite wins 1-0, 2-0, 3-1 etc, not 3-0 or 4-1

Now consider, the plays we are looking at are picked by a solid handicapper who feels there is value in the favourite! If you are deliberately trying to find value in dogs the figures should look even better.

I'm trailing it, I think if I do well for a couple of weeks I might start a thread.

[KATCHASE]

ShotgunRua...Take a look at post #184. The scores of all my games up to that date are listed in brackets at the end of each game. Let me know how you would have done using your strategy.

[ShotgunRua]

On it! The only thing missing will be the odds, but generally they work out very similar to the DNB on the favourite, if not slightly worse.

[Vaughany]

Yeah definitely, it's interesting though from the following perspective;

*Your record for DNB plays is 25 wins, 6 losses and 13 draws
*Straight away betting +1 or +2 on the opposite play means you would have won 19 out of 44 plays (just under 50%)
*Of the other 25 bets, how many of those were won by more than 1 or 2 goals?? Obviously I could go back through the thread and find out, however I'd guess the majority of the time the favourite wins 1-0, 2-0, 3-1 etc, not 3-0 or 4-1

Now consider, the plays we are looking at are picked by a solid handicapper who feels there is value in the favourite! If you are deliberately trying to find value in dogs the figures should look even better.

I'm trailing it, I think if I do well for a couple of weeks I might start a thread.

yeah, playing the +1, +2 type asian handicaps on dogs is an interesting method and I think most bettors dont do it because either they have no idea that it's even available, and/or because it does seem in soccer that the natural inclination is to assume that the favourite or big team will crush the opponent. Like with last night, I'm sure many got screwed from playing Chelsea -1 and Man Utd -1 or -1.5 type bets. And I know for sure if you'd played the +1 on the dogs in African Nations so far you'd of had decent success. I did it with Cape Verde in their first game and won but then haven't done any since in African Nations. I've been doing the +1 A.H. quite a lot recently and pretty sure I've had decent success rates with it. I really need to start monitoring my bets bettor though so that I can actually make sure it's successful and see patterns etc...! Be interested to see how you do though, and I'll monitor mine as well and see how I go.

[Vaughany]

Wolves was another one tonight where I nearly pulled the trigger on +1 @ -130 or something but didnt after seeing how many players Wolves have unavailable. Looks like they might get a point out of this game

[ShotgunRua]

yeah, playing the +1, +2 type asian handicaps on dogs is an interesting method and I think most bettors dont do it because either they have no idea that it's even available, and/or because it does seem in soccer that the natural inclination is to assume that the favourite or big team will crush the opponent. Like with last night, I'm sure many got screwed from playing Chelsea -1 and Man Utd -1 or -1.5 type bets. And I know for sure if you'd played the +1 on the dogs in African Nations so far you'd of had decent success. I did it with Cape Verde in their first game and won but then haven't done any since in African Nations. I've been doing the +1 A.H. quite a lot recently and pretty sure I've had decent success rates with it. I really need to start monitoring my bets bettor though so that I can actually make sure it's successful and see patterns etc...! Be interested to see how you do though, and I'll monitor mine as well and see how I go.

Excellent, yeah I'm thinking of all those tight premier league games which end 1-0, 2-1 would be prime candidates.

I just checked Katchase's record from a previous post and of 19 wins, a +2 asian handicap would have produced 6 losses and 13 pushes. Ironically this is very similar to his actual results using the DNB system.

However, looking at upcoming matches it is clear the +2 is not always available, and where it is the odds can be pretty poor. I think a good starting point is looking at games which are expected to have under 2.5 goals, then cross reference that with any dogs you see value in. I'll definitely be tracking my wins/losses.

[KATCHASE]

Excellent, yeah I'm thinking of all those tight premier league games which end 1-0, 2-1 would be prime candidates.

I just checked Katchase's record from a previous post and of 19 wins, a +2 asian handicap would have produced 6 losses and 13 pushes. Ironically this is very similar to his actual results using the DNB system.

However, looking at upcoming matches it is clear the +2 is not always available, and where it is the odds can be pretty poor. I think a good starting point is looking at games which are expected to have under 2.5 goals, then cross reference that with any dogs you see value in. I'll definitely be tracking my wins/losses.

Odds portal is a good place to check available odds - including available Asian handicaps. I look forward to seeing your results. You should start a thread for this...(even just for tracking). I like your under 2.5 goal games idea as well.

[Vaughany]

Wolves was another one tonight where I nearly pulled the trigger on +1 @ -130 or something but didnt after seeing how many players Wolves have unavailable. Looks like they might get a point out of this game

ha ended up losing 2-1 but Ebanks-Blake could of scored 2 in last 5 mins. Funny how Kevin Doyle has gone completely off the radar and Shane Long has done the opposite

[KATCHASE]

bad luck with Xanthi. Im probably gonna be on Eskisehispor PK again today against Trabzonspor.

Great call here Vaughany.

[ShotgunRua]

ha ended up losing 2-1 but Ebanks-Blake could of scored 2 in last 5 mins. Funny how Kevin Doyle has gone completely off the radar and Shane Long has done the opposite

Yeah no doubt, I made a tiny play (£5) for tracking purposes on Wolves + 2 at 1.3. I also have a BTTS double on Leicester/Wolves and Athletico/Sevilla..... Really didn't think that would be the game to let me down but not looking great after 1st half.

Tailed you on Esk PK and doubled with Leicester PK. Having a cracking night so far.

[ShotgunRua]

Odds portal is a good place to check available odds - including available Asian handicaps. I look forward to seeing your results. You should start a thread for this...(even just for tracking). I like your under 2.5 goal games idea as well.

Yeah will do, got an unusual unders system I've been working on as well which I've done very well off for small stakes. I'll put something together. I'll check out odds portal.

[KATCHASE]

Friday, February 1:

WORLD CLUB FRIENDLY
SLAVIA PRAGUE (CZE) - DNB @ 1.22 (3 units to win 0.66 units)

[KATCHASE]

Adding:

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES CUP
BANI YAS - DNB @ 1.33 (3 units to win 0.99 units)

[KATCHASE]

Adding:

BELGIUM BELGACOM LEAGUE
EUPEN - DNB @ 1.2 (3 units to win 0.6 units)

[KATCHASE]

Adding:

FRANCE LIGUE 2
LE HAVRE - DNB @ 1.4 (3 units to win 1.2 units)

[KATCHASE]

Adding:

ITALY SERIE A
AS ROMA - DNB @ 1.2 (3 units to win 0.6 units)

[KATCHASE]

Adding:

ARGENTINA PRIMERA B NACIONAL
ATL. TUCUMAN - DNB @ 1.29 (3 units to win 0.87 units)

[KATCHASE]

Yesterday: 3 wins, 2 losses, 1 draw [-3.27]
Record (DNB's): 28-8-14 [+3.08]

Saturday, February 2:

ENGLAND SOUTHERN PREMIER LEAGUE
TOTTON - DNB @ 1.4 (3 units to win 1.2 units)

[KATCHASE]

Adding:

ENGLAND BLUE SQUARE NORTH
GAINSBOROUGH - DNB @ 1.33 (3 units to win 0.99 units)

AFRICA CUP F NATIONS
GHANA - DNB @ 1.3 (3 units to win 0.9 units)

[KATCHASE]

Adding:

ENGLAND BLUE SQUARE SOUTH
CHELMSFORD - DNB @ 1.29 (3 units to win 0.87 units)

[KATCHASE]

Adding:

BELGIUM BELGACOM LEAGUE
ST. TRUIDEN - DNB @ 1.29 (3 units to win 0.87 units)

[KATCHASE]

Now that's more like it! ...3 wins and 1 draw so far on the day.

Go ST. TRUIDEN!

[KATCHASE]

Adding:

WORLD CLUB FRIENDLY
SAN JOSE (USA) - DNB @ 1.33 (3 units to win 0.99 units)