Katchase's Soccer Totals

[etishere]

hey, what happened in Greece? Did they take my insult about not having any strikers seriously? All three games in the Greece FL went over!
But I guess when the chances of going under are around 85% then there must be some games that go over, every now and then.

Woking game is interesting - both sides gone over 5 out of their last 5 and around 75% chance of going over in this game.

Katchase - you are doing a brilliant job -dont feel down with a few losses, every system has losses, they must happen statistically.

On the weekend there was a sure bet in my list of bets. The New Zealand rugby team was playing in Europe. They had lost only 1 game in the last 10 years in Europe, out of about 50 games and hadn't lost a game all year.

At $1.11 for the win it was like giving money away and I was going to go with it. Then on Friday I saw a little news snippet - the team had all come down with a gastro bug during the week and sure enough - on Saturday they lost.

That was a team with only a 2% chance of losing - but they lost, as they must do, from time to time. It happens, lol

So chin up and lets have lots of great tips and keep building that bank!

good luck with Lincoln and Woking.

ET

[KATCHASE]

Thanks for the support ET!!

Any games on your play list today?

[etishere]

there was on game on my list today, in Iran damash vs eshetghal (?) to go under. but it was only rated about 73% chance and that is borderline for me and I got distracted yesterday afternoon so I left it.
I notice it came in ... and paid $1.50 so that would have been nice. oh well.
looking at the lincoln scoreline and willing you a few more goals - I much prefer over games to be 3-0 after ten minutes lol. Dont enjoy the tension of needing two goals in extra time.
ET

[KATCHASE]

I so agree with you about 3 goals in the first 10 minutes!!

Just need a miracle goal in these dying minutes...

[KATCHASE]

...and not today. Gotta add another loss the the books.

[Gndias]

so close man...

[etishere]

just looking at tomorrow.
I like Bayern W to go over in the Bundesliga women - they are paying $1.45 for over 2.5 and are a 75% chance to go over.
bet of the day I think will be Al Shaab in the UAE league to go over 2.5 - they are an 85% chance to go over and are paying $1.30 ish

Two other games in the UAE are a 75% chances to go over..
Al Nasr and the Al Ain game - interestingly Al Ain is over 10/10 so far.
The over in those games is paying $1.30 and $1.35

the problem with these selections is that if one goes down, you only break even.

good luck to all.

p.s. I would like all these games to go over in the first 5 minutes, please. :-)

[ndfighter330]

Every week I watch Woking matches go over but never play their games. I was on the match to go over today and we got burned. It was a great bet though and no shame in that loss.

[KATCHASE]

Every week I watch Woking matches go over but never play their games. I was on the match to go over today and we got burned. It was a great bet though and no shame in that loss.

Appreciated, thanks.

[KATCHASE]

Record To Date:
48-26 (64.9%) -$294...All posted plays
15-6 (71.4%) +$10...Strictly System plays only since Monday, Nov 12/2012
0-1 -$200...Last day: Tues, Dec 4/12


Tuesday, December 4 Results:
ENGLAND BLUE SQUARE PREMIER
Lincoln vs. Woking - Over 2.5 @ 1.6 ($200 to win $120)...LOSS

[KATCHASE]

Like ET, I also have the UAE games on my radar today. However, being that the Al Shaab and Al Nasir are just a smidgen off my system play numbers, I will be adding them as regular plays.


I will also be adding a few more under plays, starting today, as I've been doing some back testing on my stats and have seen some pretty positive results.

Wednesday, December 5 Plays:

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES: UAE LEAGUE
Al Nasr Vs. Ajman - Over 2.5 @ 1.3 ($100 to win $30)
Al Shaab Vs. Jazira - Over 2.5 @ 1.34 ($100 to win $34)

SOUTH AFRICA PREMIER LEAGUE
Free State Stars Vs. Mamelodi Sundowns - Under 2.5 @ 1.6 ($100 to win $60)


GOOD LUCK!!!

[16johnnymac]

Al Shaab Vs. Jazira - Over 2.5 @ 1.34 ($100 to win $34)
On my book it's over 3 1/2
Is this still a play

Thank you

Jmac

Like ET, I also have the UAE games on my radar today. However, being that the Al Shaab and Al Nasir are just a smidgen off my system play numbers, I will be adding them as regular plays.


I will also be adding a few more under plays, starting today, as I've been doing some back testing on my stats and have seen some pretty positive results.

Wednesday, December 5 Plays:

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES: UAE LEAGUE
Al Nasr Vs. Ajman - Over 2.5 @ 1.3 ($100 to win $30)
Al Shaab Vs. Jazira - Over 2.5 @ 1.34 ($100 to win $34)

SOUTH AFRICA PREMIER LEAGUE
Free State Stars Vs. Mamelodi Sundowns - Under 2.5 @ 1.6 ($100 to win $60)


GOOD LUCK!!!

[KATCHASE]

Al Shaab Vs. Jazira - Over 2.5 @ 1.34 ($100 to win $34)
On my book it's over 3 1/2
Is this still a play

Thank you

Jmac

Expecting a lot of goals, but it's really up to you.

[KATCHASE]

I'd like to keep track of my weekday leans, so here are today's:

Debrecen / Egri - Over 2.5 @ 1.5
Perugia vs Lecce - over 2.5 @ 1.7
tondela vs oliveirense - under 2.5 @ 1.6
free state stars vs Mamelodi Sundowns - under 2.5 @ 1.6
al Shaab vs Jazira - over 2.5 @ 1.34
al wahda Vs al dhafra - over 2.5 @ 1.3
al nasir vs ajman - over 2.5 @ 1.3

[KATCHASE]

I can't believe how much the under line for the Free State Stars game dropped...from the 1.60's to the 1.30's! Wow

[KATCHASE]

Things were looking better today at 2-1 on my regular posted plays and 5-2 on my leans.

Congrats to ET on a 3-1 day! Your Al Shaab bet of the day was awesome and easy peasy with a final score of 2-3. Love those stress free games!! Keep up the great work!

[16johnnymac]

Winners for Wednesday ? I hope !$$$$$$!!

[Blastie]

Katchase, ET, what do you guys think about the UAE games tonight? All 3 a chance to go over, but all 3 are fairly short.

I do have doubts about Dubai vs Al Wasl as that could be a 1-1 draw.

[KATCHASE]

Record To Date:
50-27 (64.9%) -3.04 units (All Posted Plays)
15-6 (71.4%) +0.1 units (System Plays)
5-2 (71.4%) +0.54 units (Leans)

2-1, -0.1 units (Last day)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Note: I am changing my $100 and $200 flat bets to 1 and 2 flat units.
Typically my 1 unit plays will be regular plays, and 2 unit plays will be
system plays.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wednesday, December 5 Plays Results:
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES: UAE LEAGUE
Al Nasr Vs. Ajman - Over 2.5 @ 1.3 ($100 to win $30)...LOSE
Al Shaab Vs. Jazira - Over 2.5 @ 1.34 ($100 to win $34)...WIN
SOUTH AFRICA PREMIER LEAGUE
Free State Stars Vs. Mamelodi Sundowns - Under 2.5 @ 1.6 ($100 to win $60)...WIN

LEANS RESULTS:
Debrecen / Egri - Over 2.5 @ 1.5
Perugia vs Lecce - over 2.5 @ 1.7
tondela vs oliveirense - under 2.5 @ 1.6
free state stars vs Mamelodi Sundowns - under 2.5 @ 1.6
al Shaab vs Jazira - over 2.5 @ 1.34
al wahda Vs al dhafra - over 2.5 @ 1.3
al nasir vs ajman - over 2.5 @ 1.3

[KATCHASE]

Katchase, ET, what do you guys think about the UAE games tonight? All 3 a chance to go over, but all 3 are fairly short.

I do have doubts about Dubai vs Al Wasl as that could be a 1-1 draw.

i agree with you. While all 3 games show a strong likelihood of going over, the Dubai Club game appears be the weakest out of the three.

[KATCHASE]

Thursday, December 6 Plays:

No qualifying plays today.


LEANS:

NAPOLI VS. PSV - OVER 2.5 @ 1.62
LA EQUIDAD VS. ITAGUI DITARES - UNDER 2.5 @ 1.6
IND. MEDELLIN VS. ATL. NACIONAL - UNDER 2.5 @ 1.6
U. MADEIRA VS. SPORTING LISBON B - UNDER 2.5 @ 1.72
ITTIHAD KALBA VS. AL SHABAB - OVER 2.5 @ 1.3

[etishere]

hi blastie,
I give al shabab an 80% chance of going over and its opponent is 9/10 for over. paying $1.30 thats ok, sort of :-)
and definitely not for the other two.

nothing in saudi arabia tonight, but just saw a juicy arb at 5.3% on one of the saudi games. l faisley and al taawon if anyone is onto it.

lagunak in the spain womens league is a marginal over but the price is garbage so I will ignore that one.

hope it goes well...

ET

[KATCHASE]

Thursday' Leans Results:

NAPOLI VS. PSV - OVER 2.5 @ 1.62...WIN
LA EQUIDAD VS. ITAGUI DITARES - UNDER 2.5 @ 1.6...LOSE
IND. MEDELLIN VS. ATL. NACIONAL - UNDER 2.5 @ 1.6...WIN
U. MADEIRA VS. SPORTING LISBON B - UNDER 2.5 @ 1.72...LOSE
ITTIHAD KALBA VS. AL SHABAB - OVER 2.5 @ 1.3...LOSE

2-3, -1.78u (-1.24u)

[KATCHASE]

Friday, December 7 Plays:

No plays today.


LEANS:
USM ALGER VS. BEL ABBES - UNDER 2.5 @ 1.5
IND. RIVALDAVIA VS. PATRONATO - UNDER 2.5 @ 1.53
FSV FRANKFURT VS. SANDHAUSEN - OVER 2.5 @ 1.75
BREMEN (AM) VS. HAMBURGER (AM) - OVER 2.5 @ 1.4 (Almost a play for me)
GUTERSLOH VS. WESTFALIA RHYNERN - OVER 2.5 @ 1.48
EXCELSIOR VS. SPARTA ROTTERDAM - OVER 2.5 @ 1.5
G.A. EAGLES VS. VEENDAM - OVER 2.5 @ 1.48
AL SUWAIQ VS. SAHAM - UNDER 2.5 @ 1.65
BESIKTAS vs. ESKISEHIRSPOR - OVER 2.5 @ 1.75

[KATCHASE]

Friday's Leans Results
USM ALGER VS. BEL ABBES - UNDER 2.5 @ 1.5...LOSE
IND. RIVALDAVIA VS. PATRONATO - UNDER 2.5 @ 1.53...WIN
FSV FRANKFURT VS. SANDHAUSEN - OVER 2.5 @ 1.75...WIN
BREMEN (AM) VS. HAMBURGER (AM) - OVER 2.5 @ 1.4...LOSE
GUTERSLOH VS. WESTFALIA RHYNERN - OVER 2.5 @ 1.48...POSTPONED
EXCELSIOR VS. SPARTA ROTTERDAM - OVER 2.5 @ 1.5...WIN
G.A. EAGLES VS. VEENDAM - OVER 2.5 @ 1.48...POSTPONED
AL SUWAIQ VS. SAHAM - UNDER 2.5 @ 1.65...LOSE
BESIKTAS vs. ESKISEHIRSPOR - OVER 2.5 @ 1.75...WIN

4-3, -.47u (-1.71u)

[KATCHASE]

Record To Date (Corrected and reverted back to dollars):
50-27 (64.9%) -$300 (All Posted Plays)
15-6 (71.4%) +$10 (System Plays)
2-1, -$6 (Last day: Wed, Dec 5/12)


Wednesday, December 5 Plays Results:
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES: UAE LEAGUE
Al Nasr Vs. Ajman - Over 2.5 @ 1.3 ($100 to win $30)...LOSE
Al Shaab Vs. Jazira - Over 2.5 @ 1.34 ($100 to win $34)...WIN
SOUTH AFRICA PREMIER LEAGUE
Free State Stars Vs. Mamelodi Sundowns - Under 2.5 @ 1.6 ($100 to win $60)...WIN

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Hi guys, surely a few plays for tonight's games?

[KATCHASE]

Saturday, December 8 Plays:

QTAR PREMIER LEAGUE
Al Rayyan Vs. Al Arabi - Over 2.5 @ 1.45 ($200 to win $90)...System Play

GERMANY JUNIOREN BUNDESLIGA NORTH
Hallescher U19 Vs. Cottbus U19 - Over 2.5 @ 1.32 ($100 to win $32)

ITALY SERIE B
Cesena Vs. Empoli - Over 2.5 @ 1.85 ($100 to win $85)

[etishere]

sorry, been away for a few days - didnt get a chance to check out my favourite OU games.
Hope my buddies in teh Ghana and Greek leagues have been doing the right by you all :-)
ET

[KATCHASE]

Hey ET...Good to see you back!

I can't seem to have a winning day to save my life lately. My system plays are on such a bad run right now. I'm hoping things will turn around soon... My only motivation is that I'm still up positive units in my personal (un-posted) system plays record since October 18th. I've also tweaked and back-tested some filters to come up with some games that I will be posting as regular plays for now...always a work in progress, I guess. Speakng of work...I'm behind on Sunday's games, so I better get back to it and hopefully post some winners to turn things around!!

All the best!
Kat

[KATCHASE]

Sunday, December 9 Plays:

ITALY SERIE B
Cesena Vs. Empoli - Over 2.5 @ 1.87 ($100 to win $87)

GREECE FOOTBALL LEAGUE
Kavala Vs. Kalloni - Under 2.5 @ 1.48 ($100 to win $48)
Thrasivoulos Vs. O. Volos - Under 2.5 @ 1.45) ($100 to win $45)

SPAIN SECUNDA DIVISION B - GROUP 4
Melilla Vs. Jaen - Under 2.5 @ 1.57 ($100 to win $57)

TURKEY TFF 2 WHITE GROUP
Eyupspor Vs. Kirklarelispor - Under 2.5 @ 1.45 ($100 to win $45)



Other games I like, but odds are currently not available:

Holstein Keil U19 Vs. Hamburger U19 - Over 2.5 ($200)
Erfurt U19 Vs. Wolfsburg U19 - Over 2.5 ($100)
Caerleon Vs. Taffs Well - Over 2.5 ($100)
Flandria Vs. Temperley - Under 2.5 ($100)
Foolad Yazd Vs. Esteahlal Khuzestan - Under 2.5 ($100)

[KATCHASE]

Record To Date:
51-27 (65.4%) -$268 (All Posted Plays)
15-7 (68.2%) -$210 (System Plays)
1-1, -$168 (Last day: Sat, Dec 8/12)


Saturday, December 8 Results:
QTAR PREMIER LEAGUE
Al Rayyan Vs. Al Arabi - Over 2.5 @ 1.45 ($200 to win $90)...System Play...LOSE
GERMANY JUNIOREN BUNDESLIGA NORTH
Hallescher U19 Vs. Cottbus U19 - Over 2.5 @ 1.32 ($100 to win $32)...WIN
ITALY SERIE B
Cesena Vs. Empoli - Over 2.5 @ 1.85 ($100 to win $85)...POSTPONED

[23Edler_Salo6]

Will Hill is slacking on posting games a reasonable amount of time before they start, need to sleep ><

Thanks for the picks.

[KATCHASE]

A perfect 6-0 day!!! Now that's more like it! These were all "regular" plays for me, so I'm feeling pretty good about some of the recent changes I've made to my regular play filters. But really only time will tell...


Record To Date:
57-27 (67.9%) +$87 (All Posted Plays)
15-7 (68.2%) -$210 (System Plays)
6-0, +$355 (Last day: Sun, Dec 9/12)


Sunday, December 9 Results:
ITALY SERIE B
Cesena Vs. Empoli - Over 2.5 @ 1.87 ($100 to win $87)...WIN
GREECE FOOTBALL LEAGUE
Kavala Vs. Kalloni - Under 2.5 @ 1.48 ($100 to win $48)...WIN
Thrasivoulos Vs. O. Volos - Under 2.5 @ 1.45) ($100 to win $45)...WIN
SPAIN SECUNDA DIVISION B - GROUP 4
Melilla Vs. Jaen - Under 2.5 @ 1.57 ($100 to win $57)...WIN
TURKEY TFF 2 WHITE GROUP
Eyupspor Vs. Kirklarelispor - Under 2.5 @ 1.45 ($100 to win $45)...WIN

Other games I like, but odds are currently not available:

Holstein Keil U19 Vs. Hamburger U19 - Over 2.5 ($200)...POSTPONED
Erfurt U19 Vs. Wolfsburg U19 - Over 2.5 ($100)...POSTPONED
Caerleon Vs. Taffs Well - Over 2.5 ($100)...POSTPONED
Flandria Vs. Temperley - Under 2.5 ($100)...MONDAY GAME
Foolad Yazd Vs. Esteahlal Khuzestan - Under 2.5 ($100)...WIN $73 at odds of 1.73 (Bet Victor, Bwin etc. made odds available)

[23Edler_Salo6]

I ended up parlaying all the Greek Football League games because OU markets weren't available until in-play, most of which moved to around -300. All games hit under, love Greece.