MLB - Saturday, 6/24/17

[LT Profits]

3 MLB Sides Saturday

Athletics +102 (5 Dimes)
Blue Jays -103 (Bookmaker)
Pirates +126 (Bookmaker)


YTD: 279-293-16, -1.82

Totals Coming

[LT Profits]

4 MLB Plays Saturday

4 MLB Plays Saturday

Athletics +102 (5 Dimes)
Blue Jays -103 (Bookmaker)
Blue Jays / Royals UNDER 9 +102 (5 Dimes)
Pirates +126 (Bookmaker)

[pilebuck13]

👍 lots of movement on the a's T

[LT Profits]

�� lots of movement on the a's T

Glad I got in ahead of it.

[pjimbo]

Can you explain why you're going against Vargas? I put in a play on the royals last night based on his success this year (cy young numbers) and may get out of the play now based on your jays pick, but I'd like to understand your reasoning before doing so. Thanks.

[LT Profits]

Can you explain why you're going against Vargas? I put in a play on the royals last night based on his success this year (cy young numbers) and may get out of the play now based on your jays pick, but I'd like to understand your reasoning before doing so. Thanks.

Vargas is not that good, regression is a bitch. The 2.42 variance between his xFIP (4.69) and his ERA (2.27) is the largest negative variance in baseball among qualified starters. In fact, he is the only starter with a differential over 2.00 (2nd Ervin Santana 1.96, 3rd Dylan Bundy 1.59).

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=18,d

[LT Profits]

What is interesting though is model has Oakland 53% (-113), so my drop dead cut-off point would be -103. That means I would pass at current market unless A's come back down.

[Conqueror]

I'm glad you're not on the Orioles today . Fading them on the road has been money.

[LT Profits]

I'm glad you're not on the Orioles today . Fading them on the road has been money.

I am not bias that way, every team in every game has a price where it has value. With that said, I don't blindly play ALL model picks. Rule of thumb is 10-point variance, but I have passed on games with bigger variances and played games with more minute differences. Only thing I never do is go against the model.

[pilebuck13]

Vargas is not that good, regression is a bitch. The 2.42 variance between his xFIP (4.69) and his ERA (2.27) is the largest negative variance in baseball among qualified starters. In fact, he is the only starter with a differential over 2.00 (2nd Ervin Santana 1.96, 3rd Dylan Bundy 1.59).

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...rs=0&sort=18,d

Interesting way to analyze stats

[Conqueror]

I am not bias that way, every team in every game has a price where it has value. With that said, I don't blindly play ALL model picks. Rule of thumb is 10-point variance, but I have passed on games with bigger variances and played games with more minute differences. Only thing I never do is go against the model.

Many thanks.

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Addition

5 MLB Plays Saturday

Athletics +102 (5 Dimes)
Blue Jays -103 (Bookmaker)
Blue Jays / Royals UNDER 9 +102 (5 Dimes)
Reds / Nationals UNDER 10 -105 (Heritage)
Pirates +126 (Bookmaker)

[LT Profits]

2 More MLB Additions

7 MLB Plays Saturday

Athletics +102 (5 Dimes)
Blue Jays -103 (Bookmaker)
Blue Jays / Royals UNDER 9 +102 (5 Dimes)
Reds / Nationals UNDER 10 -105 (Heritage)
Cubs / Marlins OVER 8.5 -110 (Heritage)
Pirates +126 (Bookmaker)
Astros / Mariners UNDER 9 +100 (Heritage)

[stackz125]

What is
xFIP??

[LT Profits]

What is
xFIP??

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/xfip/

[pjimbo]

LT, what are your picks for the Sunday night CFL game?