Below are revised projections for Trump-Virus dead in the U.S. and southern states by November 1st. I’ve revised the algorithm used by replacing the survivability rate with that recorded since June 1st – roughly the date Remdesivir became widely used, which has had a positive impact on the death rate. However, although, once again, my death projections are more optimistic than IHME’s , the data several states hide – especially Florida – makes my own projections likely too optimistic. Nevertheless, both projections of the dead for the U.S. still cover 200k (due mostly to the southern states’ contribution), a bad number for the Orange Blimp to spin just a few days before the election.
