COVID-19 Data - 4/28/20 – 5/4/20

WillyBoy · 04-28-20, 07:28 PM

A really bad day. Cases were up worldwide, with Sweden leading the pack, while Belgians are dropping like flies. My optimism over the U.S. yesterday, proved to be a false positive with deaths exploding today to a 10 day high. Virginia and Illinois are trending poorly, but some state numbers still don’t make sense.

WillyBoy · 04-28-20, 07:28 PM

WillyBoy · 04-29-20, 12:39 AM

Data for testing too incomplete (or doubtfully reported) to include for this week. Will look for better sources. Virginia improved a bit over the past week, but with Massachusetts, Illinois and N. Carolina, these 5 states are in a lot of trouble. Big downward swings in cases for Ohio, and in deaths for Pennsylvania.

Chi_archie · 04-29-20, 09:00 AM

Daily change data doesn't mean much to me.

for the past 6 weeks we see a steady pattern. Deaths decline drastically on Saturday and Sunday and then up on Monday and we hit our Highest for the week pretty much ever Tuesday

its just a reporting thing, Most states aren't reporting the deaths until a few days later after they are certified.

on the weekend we get a backlog that gets released on Monday and Tuesday, with the Majority coming on Tuesday.

WillyBoy · 04-29-20, 01:31 PM

Originally posted by Chi_archie

Daily change data doesn't mean much to me.

for the past 6 weeks we see a steady pattern. Deaths decline drastically on Saturday and Sunday and then up on Monday and we hit our Highest for the week pretty much ever Tuesday

its just a reporting thing, Most states aren't reporting the deaths until a few days later after they are certified.

on the weekend we get a backlog that gets released on Monday and Tuesday, with the Majority coming on Tuesday.

Daily tracking of deaths and recoveries, despite delays in reporting, are like ballpark snapshots of where we are, and where we might be headed. I’m constantly looking for optimistic trends, and sometimes see them when they don’t exist. You’re right about the Saturday-Sunday-Monday anomalies in reporting; it is on Tuesdays when death numbers tend to jump. Forgive an old man, for getting his days of the week mixed up.

agendaman · 04-29-20, 01:33 PM

i just want to know when it is over

Auto Donk · 04-29-20, 03:10 PM

Originally posted by WillyBoy

Daily tracking of deaths and recoveries, despite delays in reporting, are like ballpark snapshots of where we are, and where we might be headed. I’m constantly looking for optimistic trends, and sometimes see them when they don’t exist. You’re right about the Saturday-Sunday-Monday anomalies in reporting; it is on Tuesdays when death numbers tend to jump. Forgive an old man, for getting his days of the week mixed up.

you need to go pull in the ny and nj COMMON FLU data from the cdc and each state's respective health department, and extrapolate how many deaths from COMMON FLU (THERE ARE THOUSANDS OF THEM MISREPORTED AS CV-19) need to be removed from the usa cases/deaths.....

shit is pathetic how they are misreporting cases/deaths from what was predicted in January 2020 by the cdc and ny/nj to be a "particularly bad" COMMON FLU season, with predicted deaths matching 2017-18 (85,000+ deaths)........

amazingly, once the corona narrative popped up and the msm took off with it, those deaths dropped to near zero.......

WillyBoy · 04-29-20, 04:09 PM

Originally posted by Auto Donk

you need to go pull in the ny and nj COMMON FLU data from the cdc and each state's respective health department, and extrapolate how many deaths from COMMON FLU (THERE ARE THOUSANDS OF THEM MISREPORTED AS CV-19) need to be removed from the usa cases/deaths.....

shit is pathetic how they are misreporting cases/deaths from what was predicted in January 2020 by the cdc and ny/nj to be a "particularly bad" COMMON FLU season, with predicted deaths matching 2017-18 (85,000+ deaths)........

amazingly, once the corona narrative popped up and the msm took off with it, those deaths dropped to near zero.......

1. Not looking for an argument – honest - but when you claim NY and NJ have “misreported” common flu deaths as Covid 19, exactly how has their reporting failed to follow CDC guidance?

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf

2. There’s a good reason why the common flu has killed fewer than predicted; namely, modelers who make these projections could not have anticipated the widespread, stay-at-home lockdowns occurring in the U.S. due to Covid 19 fears. This has impacted the spread of the common flu (as well as Covid 19), sharply reducing flu infections (which usually peak in February, ending in May), as well as associated deaths.

3. I’m sure you have a theory as to why NY and NJ, and maybe the CDC itself, could be inflating the number of U.S. deaths due to Covid 19 – and I’d like to hear one that has some logic to it.

Auto Donk · 04-29-20, 04:16 PM

Originally posted by WillyBoy

1. Not looking for an argument – honest - but when you claim NY and NJ have “misreported” common flu deaths as Covid 19, exactly how has their reporting failed to follow CDC guidance?

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf

2. There’s a good reason why the common flu has killed fewer than predicted; namely, modelers who make these projections could not have anticipated the widespread, stay-at-home lockdowns occurring in the U.S. due to Covid 19 fears. This has impacted the spread of the common flu (as well as Covid 19), sharply reducing flu infections (which usually peak in February, ending in May), as well as associated deaths.

3. I’m sure you have a theory as to why NY and NJ, and maybe the CDC itself, could be inflating the number of U.S. deaths due to Covid 19 – and I’d like to hear one that has some logic to it.

dude, get real.... "guidelines"???? reporting guidelines????? are you kidding me????

what happened to science and the numbers??????

science and the numbers show us nyc/nj are lying their asses off about cv-19 deaths......... look at past years flu seasons and ACTUAL NUMBERS -- FUK REPORTING GUIDE-FUKKIN-LINES, and you can see the shit is baked......... the numbers are pure new york bullshit, with a side of nj bullshit thrown in......

WillyBoy · 04-29-20, 05:14 PM

Originally posted by Auto Donk

dude, get real.... "guidelines"???? reporting guidelines????? are you kidding me????

what happened to science and the numbers??????

science and the numbers show us nyc/nj are lying their asses off about cv-19 deaths......... look at past years flu seasons and ACTUAL NUMBERS -- FUK REPORTING GUIDE-FUKKIN-LINES, and you can see the shit is baked......... the numbers are pure new york bullshit, with a side of nj bullshit thrown in......

You claim NY and NJ are misreporting, and I asked for specifics - and all you got is “FUK REPORTING GUIDE-FUKKIN-LINES”? I have looked “at past years flu seasons and ACTUAL NUMBERS”, and I’ve explained the projected reduction in deaths, but all you have is “nyc/nj are lying their asses off”??? Tell you what – how about a bit of “science and the numbers” from you, instead of the hysterical crap you throw around? Can you explain yourself a bit better than a knuckle-dragging goofball?

Auto Donk · 04-29-20, 06:21 PM

Originally posted by WillyBoy

You claim NY and NJ are misreporting, and I asked for specifics - and all you got is “FUK REPORTING GUIDE-FUKKIN-LINES”? I have looked “at past years flu seasons and ACTUAL NUMBERS”, and I’ve explained the projected reduction in deaths, but all you have is “nyc/nj are lying their asses off”??? Tell you what – how about a bit of “science and the numbers” from you, instead of the hysterical crap you throw around? Can you explain yourself a bit better than a knuckle-dragging goofball?

just watch laura ingram from last night, she put up gthe actual cdc/state date for ny showing the fraud, I don't have the time or the inclination to try to find all that shit and repost it here.....

the data is overwhelming that nyc is full of shit.........

WillyBoy · 04-29-20, 06:29 PM

Originally posted by Auto Donk

just watch laura ingram from last night, she put up gthe actual cdc/state date for ny showing the fraud, I don't have the time or the inclination to try to find all that shit and repost it here.....

the data is overwhelming that nyc is full of shit.........

Ingraham??? Really???? That’s your source???? You really are a brainwashed clown.

WillyBoy · 04-29-20, 07:28 PM

Worldwide, infections held steady, but the death rate rose. The UK had a huge jump in reported deaths (some bureaucrat finally cleared his desk). The U.S. is pretty much marching in place. A ramp-up of testing in CA has shown up higher levels of infection, and the Florida and Texas ‘nothing-to-see-here’ "miracle" continues - LOL.

WillyBoy · 04-29-20, 07:29 PM

WillyBoy · 04-29-20, 07:29 PM

SBR_Guest_Pro · 04-29-20, 08:05 PM

those New York numbers correct???

WillyBoy · 04-29-20, 10:49 PM

Originally posted by SBR_Guest_Pro

those New York numbers correct???

The numbers I post come from UW’s IHME (favorite of the White House, until they began projecting higher death numbers), Johns Hopkins and Worldometers, which is all I can guarantee. The NY numbers, in turn, are sourced from the CDC, State and County Public Health officials, and various private and public testing laboratories. To the correctness of the numbers, I have no opinion – at least not with NY.

WillyBoy · 04-30-20, 07:15 PM

The world got a tad sicker today, as did the U.S, but rates stayed pretty much as yesterday. Texas saw a big bump in deaths, as did Pennsylvania. S. Carolina’s reporting protocols are really out of sync with the rest of the U.S.

WillyBoy · 04-30-20, 07:16 PM

WillyBoy · 04-30-20, 07:16 PM

PharaohUB · 04-30-20, 07:49 PM

These numbers are completley meaningless and fear mongering. # of infected rate increase is because of increased testing. How does that really indicate whether it's getting worse or better? It doesn't, and is a pointless to statistic to share.
The reported deaths is meaningless too and obviously over stated. States/hospitals get US Federal Gov't backing on the hospital bill if they write it down as Covid. This is just a money grab from NY. They can't fleece their citizens anymore, so they are fleecing the rest of the country. They actually went back months and decided to change a bunch of people who didn't test positive as covid and reclasify them as covid (because it was expected that 'they could have been' infected).. Hmm i wonder why. Maybe they didn't pay their hospital bill? This whole thing is stupid. This thing is killing like 0.03% of people it infected and we are shutting down the economoy and destroying futures for the other 99.7%. Same people who want the 99.5% to cater to the 0.5% mentally disturbed trans community instead of vice versa. Just moronic thinking.

WillyBoy · 05-01-20, 12:29 AM

Originally posted by PharaohUB

These numbers are completley meaningless and fear mongering. # of infected rate increase is because of increased testing. How does that really indicate whether it's getting worse or better? It doesn't, and is a pointless to statistic to share.
The reported deaths is meaningless too and obviously over stated. States/hospitals get US Federal Gov't backing on the hospital bill if they write it down as Covid. This is just a money grab from NY. They can't fleece their citizens anymore, so they are fleecing the rest of the country. They actually went back months and decided to change a bunch of people who didn't test positive as covid and reclasify them as covid (because it was expected that 'they could have been' infected).. Hmm i wonder why. Maybe they didn't pay their hospital bill? This whole thing is stupid. This thing is killing like 0.03% of people it infected and we are shutting down the economoy and destroying futures for the other 99.7%. Same people who want the 99.5% to cater to the 0.5% mentally disturbed trans community instead of vice versa. Just moronic thinking.

There’s a lot of denial packed into your comment, and not a little false information. The numbers and rate of infection may be “meaningless” to you, but they are real, and should mean something to anyone with half a brain. Of course, the numbers are higher, because increased testing has revealed more of those who are infected; and these are the numbers reported by the CDC which, in turn, gets their numbers from State and County public health officials, hospitals, as well as the authorized labs that do the testing.

The fiction that Covid 19 deaths are inflated for financial reward is pure FAUX News bs. All certified deaths follow the same CDC guidance used, for decades, for all disease induced deaths; and the fact is that when, following that guidance, the Covid 19 code is used in a billing to MEDICARE, the hospital is already out a lot more money than they’ll be compensated for. Only in the minds of the brain-dead, FAUX watchers, are hospitals getting rich. (You may note, NY, is currently reporting an increasingly smaller death rate, while Texans are now dropping like bird turds on the roof of my car. Wonder if Laura will get over her blue state obsession and be targeting Texas next.)

And, yes the numbers are fearful; knowing that, in the absence of widespread testing, the number of infected is bound to be even greater, just as the number of Covid 19 dead is also likely higher, as 70%-80% of the in-home deaths, of the untested but symptomatic, go unreported, and we don’t test the dead at all. Fearful? Certainly – but denying reality, is pure cowardice. My advice – grow a pair, and quit getting your head filled with FAUX News crap.

WillyBoy · 05-01-20, 07:26 PM

Infections increased across the world, especially in the U.S. which saw its reported deaths drop, although the death rate remains steady. Sweden saw a big drop in infections, as new lockdown rules have come into effect, but its death rate remains high. Tennessee had a big jump in reported infections, and Texas deaths high again. Virginia, with its steady bad numbers, looks like a dismal place to be today. I'll be deleting S. Carolina, probably tomorrow. Their reporting is too goofy to straighten out.

WillyBoy · 05-01-20, 07:26 PM

WillyBoy · 05-01-20, 07:27 PM

WillyBoy · 05-02-20, 07:17 PM

Rates of new cases dropping worldwide, except for Sweden. The U.S. had its best day in weeks, with the death number down again, and death rate continuing its decline. Arizona had a big jump in cases and deaths, and Virginia and Illinois continue to perform badly.

WillyBoy · 05-02-20, 07:18 PM

WillyBoy · 05-02-20, 07:18 PM

WillyBoy · 05-03-20, 07:25 PM

A good day for the world and the U.S. All bad categories are down, and recoveries had an uptick. Virginia remains in a bad way, as does Illinois and Arizona – but Florida is testing more!

FWIW – The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) – the White House former favorite – has revised upward its death projections by August 4^th - from 60,000, a month ago, to 72,000, (an increase their model has made continuously every day since Trump announced - wildly misinterpreting their limited projection - that 60K would be the final count of the Covid 19 dead). Unfortunately, the US hit 60K on April 29th, three months early, and will likely hit 72K as early as next week. Hopefully, warmer weather will cool rates of infection, but I don’t know if deaths will diminish. The rate of recoveries seems to have stalled, which should have improved given that ICU availability has increased (a benefit the dead pass on), and I can’t account for it. I know there are delays in reporting recoveries, like deaths, and reporting protocols vary, but I’m still stymied by the comparatively low rate of recovery the U.S. is currently experiencing.

HOUSEKEEPING - I have finally dropped South Carolina from my tracking list. Not only have they reported bizarre testing numbers, they’re now reporting fewer numbers of infected than just last week! I think this is a case of more than one state reporting agency, with different protocols – but I don’t know. I’ve also changed up the testing values, as some states, apparently, can’t work out the “tests per 1mil” variable they’re supposed to use when reporting. It could also be the fault of the CDC; however, in any case, I’ve restated the test rate based on reported tests and total state population which, at least, makes consistent sense. I’ll recompute state populations every week, as I’m just looking for ballpark numbers for a daily snapshot of where states are.

WillyBoy · 05-03-20, 07:25 PM

WillyBoy · 05-03-20, 07:26 PM

WillyBoy · 05-04-20, 07:19 PM

Good (at least better) numbers today, across the board; although this could be the quiet before the storm. Barring the wholesale release from lockdowns, Summer weather seems like it will slow infections, but how that will impact death rates remains to be seen.

WillyBoy · 05-04-20, 07:19 PM

WillyBoy · 05-04-20, 07:20 PM