My shroompadre, good man. Only been on it for a few weeks, they say you don't have to take tolerance breaks. Hoping the party doesn't stop. Gonna introduce it to some relatives, maybe help with dementia prevention. Ever try any other shrooms like cordyceps? Wonder if Cashflow ever tried microdosing, maybe it could help him. Helps people dying of cancer, I'd imagine there is potential to help people deal with chronic medical conditions.
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My shroompadre, good man. Only been on it for a few weeks, they say you don't have to take tolerance breaks. Hoping the party doesn't stop. Gonna introduce it to some relatives, maybe help with dementia prevention. Ever try any other shrooms like cordyceps? Wonder if Cashflow ever tried microdosing, maybe it could help him. Helps people dying of cancer, I'd imagine there is potential to help people deal with chronic medical conditions.
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Jumped the gun on the reply, was too impulsive. Usually I try to let it simmer and stew for a few days while I think about it. Didn't give your post the proper respect it deserves before replying #mybad. Thanks for the insights.Pretty much yes to everything there. I was just giving the picture for this season. The main point was to show why some of these Total lines are so low. I was showing the drastic drop in temps and rise in winds.
I almost always try to show useful info, stat wise, to help anyone get some ideas. I always trying to get you think about some variables. Truth is, not a lot of edge in these well studied weather variables, but you can "stack percentages" when we look at the longer term stats.
I have that too but can't get into it now. I was going to use wind, cold, and a combo to walk through some basic approaches, like regressions. Obviously they aren't going to reveal some great EV in a vacuum, but they might be able to contribute. Sample sized do drop and it's in NCAAF where you can gain more for sure.
I did mention something about home team scoring in higher wind vs road team scoring. For some an idea to expolore further for sure. But I have to say, I go deeper when bringing that up. First, I put up that table to show numbers in weather vs overall and second to show home, road, etc. The step further is that it might not even be about weather, rather it very well could just be about home and road discrepency, and other things that can affect that. Even further, think about switching it. Almost every one of those NCAAF Funds I posted dealt with road teams, almost always underdogs. What narrows that gap, what gives the road team scoring advantage?
On top of that, why did I put the average home team spread in that chart? These are things to think about. It isn't just long term and league overall, it can get specific to teams, but it's not much to work with.
We're also looking at average lines and average scores, showing overall an NFL picture.
Here's what I mean, another chart I had ready was this one. Total Lines and scores are for all games in the season, including dome, and then the breakdowns for the specific weather games.
These are all means, not medians. There are only 64 total games in the "Both" wind 12+ and 40 degree or less column.
Regardless of scores, the lines trend lower with weather and we can test that relationship. But more importantly, in years when overal llines and scores are one way, the same is usually true for the weather games overall. They are not their own entity.
Here's the table...
Total Lines Scores Wind +12 40 Deg/less Both All games All Games Lines Scores Lines Scores Lines Scores 2012 44.7 45.6 43.8 43.1 43.2 42.8 40.4 36.3 2013 45.3 46.7 43.5 44.1 44.9 52.1 44.6 49.0 2014 46.0 45.2 45.5 43.5 48.1 48.8 46.3 48.3 2015 45.1 45.6 43.7 39.4 43.8 43.3 43.9 34.8 2016 45.6 45.6 44.0 42.3 45.3 43.4 44.4 42.5 2017 44.1 43.4 44.5 34.0 41.7 40.1 38.5 48.0 2018 46.5 46.7 43.0 42.2 45.9 45.2 39.0 43.5 2019 45.1 45.6 44.2 44.7 43.1 38.4 43.9 38.5 2020 48.1 49.7 48.4 50.8 46.0 49.2 46.4 57.9 2021 46.7 45.6 45.9 45.0 45.2 46.2 44.3 48.8 2022 44.6 44.1 43.6 40.7 43.8 42.0 43.6 35.5
And here's a chart that is busy but you can see what I mean. I removed the Average scores for all games, because it's very close to the average lines. 2017 had just one "both weather" game and it scored 48 points. 2020 had 7 games in the both category, one was an 89 point game between in Cleveland, against Balty, in 14 mph wind and 34 degree temp. Without that game, the 2020 average goes down to 52, closer to the rest of the data for that year....
All of this can then lead to more advanced math, even some regressions, but our sample size dwindles in the NFL. I just went back 10 years here.
The NFL is a tight, tough racket. It's amazing how tight those lines above actually do get, especially if you can see 2020's "Both Scores" average drop closer to 52.
It's information, some useful to an extent, but I was laying groundwork for further steps.
Next two days will be a bit busy though.
Maybe some small EV is possible with vacuum betting, nothing is really obvious to me without researching or having some data as evidence, but I would speculatively agree with you that there is no "great EV in a vacuum" for those weather factors.
Road team scoring advantage against the offered spread? Maybe the home team is better suited to perform better under more extreme weather conditions because of the familiar location giving them an edge (speculation). Maybe they have more experience as well practicing and playing under local weather conditions as opposed to a road team which might be used to playing in different weather climates.
Bigger forces at play than the weather I guess, it is not the end all be all. Market/season conditions might be a bigger factor I guess.
Been feeding lots of continuous data weather input into the models, haven't really broke it down into categorical data like wind 12MPH+ for modelling or querying. Maybe something to research. Seems like the cold windy weather brings adjustments, even if the scores don't follow. Maybe some overadjustments due to the expectation of a lower scoring game from gamblers.
Need to figure out how to deal with the small sample sizes and modelling, maybe rely more on the power rankings or preseason expectations. When the sample sizes are so low, teams don't have the chance to reveal how good they are as quickly through boxscores, maybe there is another way to rate teams. Historical career stats of the individual players maybe.
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SnJ check in at all lately? Cashflow mentioned he was dealing with some health issues.
Wishing the best to SnJ, Cashflow, Manster, Jerk, BrickJames, and all the Fly me Fellows who have and haven't been around
(mh=7zWe3rVZPcwFtsxw)9200052b.gif)
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Lose this (for money), but win this (for points) - oh well, I’ll take it!
<a href="https://ibb.co/Gcj1Ky5"><img src="https://i.ibb.co/BqR7XbC/05-B80118-1-EDF-45-A5-9-D5-E-EF61616-C0-C9-F.jpg" alt="05-B80118-1-EDF-45-A5-9-D5-E-EF61616-C0-C9-F" border="0"></a>Comment -
Lose this (for money), but win this (for points) - oh well, I’ll take it!
<a rel="nofollow" href="https://ibb.co/Gcj1Ky5"><img src="https://i.ibb.co/BqR7XbC/05-B80118-1-EDF-45-A5-9-D5-E-EF61616-C0-C9-F.jpg" alt="05-B80118-1-EDF-45-A5-9-D5-E-EF61616-C0-C9-F" border="0"></a>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Old Man serving up some McKnuckle sandwiches. <a href="https://t.co/85LZW3tPY9">pic.twitter.com/85LZW3tPY9</a></p>— Steve Inman (@SteveInmanUIC) <a href="https://twitter.com/SteveInmanUIC/status/1608544635542200320?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >December 29, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>Comment -
Daggles has become too big time for the Fly Me Thread these days I see.Comment -
Right.
OK, all good, I was going to start calling you Mr. Fancy Pants there.
OK, we're still butt plug fuk buddies.Comment -
Ribs are done
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John Cena returns tonight.
I'm about to bust a nut just thinking about it.
I wonder what Daggles wrestling ring name would be?Comment -
Barramundi to be steamed for Vietnamese style rice paper rolls and dipping sauce for starters.
Beef shin for the slow cooker for a stew tomorrow, and burgers for main.
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Opti, who’s toes are those?Comment -
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Looters fu*ked around and found out. <br><br>Feel good video of the evening! <a href="https://t.co/9EuGD6QbwO">pic.twitter.com/9EuGD6QbwO</a></p>— Eric Spracklen���� (@EricSpracklen) <a href="https://twitter.com/EricSpracklen/status/1608686723718066176?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >December 30, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>Comment -
A hot dog made with turkey is not a hot dog.Comment -
lets hope this catches on in the US
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The guy on the bike snatched her phone... <a href="https://t.co/PbhZccuz28">pic.twitter.com/PbhZccuz28</a></p>— Instant Karma �� (@RealKarma__) <a href="https://twitter.com/RealKarma__/status/1608675287247769600?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >December 30, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>Comment -
Got some rain here in Cali so Raegan gets to sport her new Christmas Gift..
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Hope everyone is well. Just gonna drop this here, we’re a little busy for me to hang out right now.
But Wagner got knocked the fukk out!…
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This scene at the Magic-Pistons game ��<br><br>Moe Wagner, Killian Hayes and Hamidou Diallo were all ejected after this altercation.<a href="https://t.co/gGiA6BWz3O">pic.twitter.com/gGiA6BWz3O</a></p>— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) <a href="https://twitter.com/YahooSports/status/1608275011210452993?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >December 29, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>Comment -
Tremendous pic sharing going on on this page.
Are we doing dick pics next?Comment -
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is it wrong for me to be rooting for the deer here?
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This deer defended itself from this family of buffoons lmao… <a href="https://t.co/19MKC8ukZE">pic.twitter.com/19MKC8ukZE</a></p>— Matt Couch (@RealMattCouch) <a href="https://twitter.com/RealMattCouch/status/1608868116406366208?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >December 30, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>Comment
that's a good one
