Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

[jackpot269]

We were at 7 degrees at 7am we up to 9 now also! I'm in the south for gods sake!

Yesterday morning we were at 5 degrees at 7am! Holy crap!!

We up to 12 now it's a heat wave!

[stevenash]

^
Pass the tanning butter.

[Bostongambler]

19 now. Wind isn’t too bad.

[Bostongambler]

It’s a Christmas Miracle!!!

[stevenash]

It’s a Christmas Miracle!!!

Festivus for the rest of us.

[Bostongambler]

Festivus for the rest of us.

I’ll get the pole out of the crawl space.

[KVB]

what is the purpose of sharing this information? what insights are we supposed to gleam from looking at single season statistics like that? how are you using this information? you reference historical data in the next post, maybe that is where the real insights are gleamed from. Maybe to get us thinking about variables like wind and temps and how that impacts the line setting and how we can use that in our forecasting/betting strategies

saw in the later post you said we need to "dive deeper". I guess you are commenting on the need for further analysis beyond what was originally posted, I guess that answers my question kind of

Pretty much yes to everything there. I was just giving the picture for this season. The main point was to show why some of these Total lines are so low. I was showing the drastic drop in temps and rise in winds.

I almost always try to show useful info, stat wise, to help anyone get some ideas. I always trying to get you think about some variables. Truth is, not a lot of edge in these well studied weather variables, but you can "stack percentages" when we look at the longer term stats.

I have that too but can't get into it now. I was going to use wind, cold, and a combo to walk through some basic approaches, like regressions. Obviously they aren't going to reveal some great EV in a vacuum, but they might be able to contribute. Sample sized do drop and it's in NCAAF where you can gain more for sure.

I did mention something about home team scoring in higher wind vs road team scoring. For some an idea to expolore further for sure. But I have to say, I go deeper when bringing that up. First, I put up that table to show numbers in weather vs overall and second to show home, road, etc. The step further is that it might not even be about weather, rather it very well could just be about home and road discrepency, and other things that can affect that. Even further, think about switching it. Almost every one of those NCAAF Funds I posted dealt with road teams, almost always underdogs. What narrows that gap, what gives the road team scoring advantage?

On top of that, why did I put the average home team spread in that chart? These are things to think about. It isn't just long term and league overall, it can get specific to teams, but it's not much to work with.

We're also looking at average lines and average scores, showing overall an NFL picture.

Here's what I mean, another chart I had ready was this one. Total Lines and scores are for all games in the season, including dome, and then the breakdowns for the specific weather games.

These are all means, not medians. There are only 64 total games in the "Both" wind 12+ and 40 degree or less column.

Regardless of scores, the lines trend lower with weather and we can test that relationship. But more importantly, in years when overal llines and scores are one way, the same is usually true for the weather games overall. They are not their own entity.

Here's the table...

	Total Lines	Scores	Wind +12		40 Deg/less		Both
	All games	All Games	Lines	Scores	Lines	Scores	Lines	Scores
2012	44.7	45.6	43.8	43.1	43.2	42.8	40.4	36.3
2013	45.3	46.7	43.5	44.1	44.9	52.1	44.6	49.0
2014	46.0	45.2	45.5	43.5	48.1	48.8	46.3	48.3
2015	45.1	45.6	43.7	39.4	43.8	43.3	43.9	34.8
2016	45.6	45.6	44.0	42.3	45.3	43.4	44.4	42.5
2017	44.1	43.4	44.5	34.0	41.7	40.1	38.5	48.0
2018	46.5	46.7	43.0	42.2	45.9	45.2	39.0	43.5
2019	45.1	45.6	44.2	44.7	43.1	38.4	43.9	38.5
2020	48.1	49.7	48.4	50.8	46.0	49.2	46.4	57.9
2021	46.7	45.6	45.9	45.0	45.2	46.2	44.3	48.8
2022	44.6	44.1	43.6	40.7	43.8	42.0	43.6	35.5

And here's a chart that is busy but you can see what I mean. I removed the Average scores for all games, because it's very close to the average lines. 2017 had just one "both weather" game and it scored 48 points. 2020 had 7 games in the both category, one was an 89 point game between in Cleveland, against Balty, in 14 mph wind and 34 degree temp. Without that game, the 2020 average goes down to 52, closer to the rest of the data for that year....



All of this can then lead to more advanced math, even some regressions, but our sample size dwindles in the NFL. I just went back 10 years here.

The NFL is a tight, tough racket. It's amazing how tight those lines above actually do get, especially if you can see 2020's "Both Scores" average drop closer to 52.

It's information, some useful to an extent, but I was laying groundwork for further steps.

Next two days will be a bit busy though.

[stevenash]

My nipples are rock hard.

[JayLA]

Anybody looking for a quick & easy ‘Bang Bang’ sauce recipe? Mix these 4 things together however you like, honey for sweet, Sriracha for spicy, & Dijon for ⅘tangy/savory.

Use on anything from chicken to pork or squirt it on top of sushi rolls. Impress your friends!



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I was banged up last time I posted in this thread...kvb and I made fun of "stalekracker" and his influencer vids but hes got this season "cajón two step" have you tried it?

[Optional]

Merry Xmas from down under

[jackpot269]

Merry Xmas from down under

That's what she said!!!

[stevenash]

I just pitched the perfect Yule log.

[stevenash]

Oh, Tessie Dog says Merry Christmas too.


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[DwightShrute]

Merry Christmas from the caribbean

[KVB]

Merry Xmas from down under

Merry Christmas Opti.

Merry Christmas FlyMe! Hope everyone is good today and throught the rest of this year.

[MaltedHopsFrenzy]

Merry Christmas to the ‘Fly Me’ crew! May all your dogs hit and favorites cover!

Enjoying a splash of eggnog & a sprinkle of nutmeg with my whisky today while I’m watching Green Bay at least cover this game for me…..

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[DiggityDaggityDo]

Merry Christmas, fellas.

I love you all

[stevenash]

I love you all

I love you more.

[Bostongambler]

Merry Christmas boys!!! Love ya all!

[stevenash]

Merry Christmas boys!!! Love ya all!

More than the C's?

And Merry Christmas to all the Fly Me Boys as well.

[stevenash]

Merry Xmas from down under

Nice.

Merry Christmas and a prosperous New Year Opti.

[KnuckleHeadz]

Merry Christmas Men!!

[Optional]

Nice.

Merry Christmas and a prosperous New Year Opti.

Same Steve, and all the guys in my fave thread.

[Bostongambler]

More than the C's?

And Merry Christmas to all the Fly Me Boys as well.

Well let’s not get obscene.

Truth be told Nasher, of course I always want the local teams to win. But, ever since the Red Sox won the World Series in 2004 ( 3 more since.) I can die a happy & content man.

[Bostongambler]

And also 20 rings for the pats in the last 21 years. And throw in a C’s and Bruins championship as well.

But the first Red Sox win was the pinnacle.

[stevenash]

Tessie Dog's favorite Christmas present.
It's an engraved bone shaped pillow for her.
She actually opened the wrapping herself after we told her it was for her (for real, she's wicked smart like that)
and then she proceeded to rag doll the pillow like it was a chew toy... we were like "No, Tessie Dog, it's not a giant chew toy..."



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[DwightShrute]

[KVB]

The answer:

Jackie Robinson, Wayne Gretzky, and Bill Russell.

The question:

??????

(who are 3 people who have never been in my kitchen is not an acceptable question here)

[stevenash]

^
Spitballing here, something to do with retired jersey numbers would be my guess.

[edawg]

The answer:

Jackie Robinson, Wayne Gretzky, and Bill Russell.

The question:

??????

(who are 3 people who have never been in my kitchen is not an acceptable question here)

What would make the most delicious oreo cookie two hall of fame blacks with the great white icing in the middle.

[stevenash]

^
Only if the filling was double stuffed.

[KVB]

^
Spitballing here, something to do with retired jersey numbers would be my guess.

Close, but you need that final answer in the form of a question....

Although might change my mind here and go with something oreo related.

[KVB]

What would make the most delicious oreo cookie two hall of fame blacks with the great white icing in the middle.

I mean, he's not wrong here ^^^.

[KnuckleHeadz]

The answer:

Jackie Robinson, Wayne Gretzky, and Bill Russell.

The question:

??????

(who are 3 people who have never been in my kitchen is not an acceptable question here)

Players to have their jersey number retired league-wide

[KVB]

Players to have their jersey number retired league-wide

Yup.

Crazy.

I honestly didn't even know anyone had a Jersey retired league wide until today.

But you didn't answer in the form of a question.