Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

**JayLA** · 12-22-22, 11:19 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

Yeah, there are still some open around these parts.
There used to be one in a strip mall near me but that recently closed.

We were coming back from Fenway a few years back, we had the munchies and figured a quick buffet was the way to go. Big mistake.
The food was putrid, the so called hot buffet was luke warm, the soup tasted like kitty cat urine...

What I remember the most was some manatee type housewife smuggling roasted beef slices into a doggy bag and stuffing it into her handbag.

The place even gave white trash people a bad name.

Never again, now if I want white trash dinner we'll go to Cracker Barrell.
At least they make a mean meatloaf and country fried steak.

When did craker barrel become a restaurant? In my day (oh shit im sounding like my dead grand dad) it was a place to buy cheeses off the highway

**stevenash** · 12-23-22, 12:07 AM

Originally posted by JayLA

When did craker barrel become a restaurant? In my day (oh shit im sounding like my dead grand dad) it was a place to buy cheeses off the highway

https://www.crackerbarrel.com/menu

**JayLA** · 12-23-22, 12:25 AM

Originally posted by stevenash

https://www.crackerbarrel.com/menu

I guess it took a while to get to south florida

**JayLA** · 12-23-22, 12:35 AM

Anyway when I think of crackers I think of
Stale kracker on youtube

https://youtu.be/N_xsM7Whf7Y

I'm going to post a play here to make this all useful

TOTAL o2.5+115 (BEIJING GUOAN vrs GUANGZHOU FC)

**KVB** · 12-23-22, 12:55 AM

Originally posted by JayLA

Anyway when I think of crackers I think of
Stale kracker on youtube

https://youtu.be/N_xsM7Whf7Y

I'm going to post a play here to make this all useful

TOTAL o2.5+115 (BEIJING GUOAN vrs GUANGZHOU FC)

No Shrimp Left Behind!!!!

WhoooWeeeh!

**JayLA** · 12-23-22, 01:04 AM

Originally posted by KVB

No Shrimp Left Behind!!!!

WhoooWeeeh!

Money my dude

LIVE
Basketball • Pepperdine @ Hawaii • Game Lines • Total • Over • 138.5 •

**JayLA** · 12-23-22, 01:32 AM

That's money

Put that on a kracker

**KVB** · 12-23-22, 01:35 AM

So check this out, from my office.

This is what would happen if you bet the same unit on every UNDER or ever OVER this NFL Season.

The first game of the season went UNDER and they haven't looked back. This does not count tonight's UNDER...

**KVB** · 12-23-22, 01:36 AM

Despite the UNDERS killing it record wise, in 7 of the 15 weeks the average game score has been higher than the average closing Total line...

Season to date the average closing Total is 44.6 while the average final score has been 44, but notice the median final score is 1.5 points lower than the median closer...

2022 Season	Hm Score	Rd Score	Total Lines	Scores	Hm Spread
All games
Avg	22.9	21.2	44.6	44.0	-1.5
Med	23.0	20.5	44.5	43.0	-2.5

**KVB** · 12-23-22, 01:36 AM

Notice week 16, this upcoming week, in the bar chart above. We are facing the lowest Totals this season.

There is some wind out there, but there is also some cold this week.

Here are some NFL weekly averages, including this upcoming week. The red and blue lines are just the tops of the bar graph above, the green line is wind.

The yellow line is temperature and is represented by the right side axis...

**KVB** · 12-23-22, 01:36 AM

Here's the breakdown of that Table above showing the 2022 Season so far. I already posted the Full Season and UNDER record.

Now we'll add all the Weather games (non roofed dome) and further break those down into Wind at 12+ mph, 15+mph, and games with an average temp of 40 degrees or less, the cold games, and the average home spreads.

Notice that, this season, when the wind is 15+ mph the Home Scores separate, as well as the home point spreads...

UND Record	2022 Season	Hm Score	Rd Score	Total Lines	Scores	Hm Spread
123-100-1	All games
	Avg	22.9	21.2	44.6	44.121	-1.5
	Med	23.0	20.5	44.5	43.0	-2.5

116-92-1	All Weather
	Avg	23.2	20.9	44.5	44.105	-1.5
	Med	23.0	20.0	44.5	42.0	-2.5

23-13	Wind 12+ mph
	Avg.	21.8	18.9	43.6	40.7	-2.3
	Med	21.0	21.0	42.8	40.5	-3.0

6-5	Wind 15+
	Avg	24.2	17.1	44.4	41.3	-3.8
	Med	23.0	17.0	44.5	43.0	-3.5

14-11	40 Deg or Less
	Avg	21.0	21.0	43.8	42.0	-2.4
	Med	20.0	23.0	43.5	44.0	-3.0

**KVB** · 12-23-22, 01:37 AM

Here are this week's games, Total lines, expected temps and expected winds, including tonight's game with NY and Jax, where there were high winds and the game ended UNDER.

High winds and low temps give us some low totals, especially in Cleveland, that looks to lead in both extremes this week...

Hm Team	Rd Team	Odds	Temp	Wind
New York Jets	Jacksonville Jaguars	36.5	48	17
San Francisco 49ers	Washington Commanders	37.5	61	4
New England Patriots	Cincinnati Bengals	41.5	20	13
Kansas City Chiefs	Seattle Seahawks	49.5	13	13
Chicago Bears	Buffalo Bills	39.5	9	22
Carolina Panthers	Detroit Lions	43.5	27	11
Tennessee Titans	Houston Texans	35.5	19	11
Cleveland Browns	New Orleans Saints	32.5	9	26
Pittsburgh Steelers	Las Vegas Raiders	38.5	12	15
Dallas Cowboys	Philadelphia Eagles	46.5	34	2
Baltimore Ravens	Atlanta Falcons	35.5	19	15
Arizona Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	40.5	59	2
Miami Dolphins	Green Bay Packers	50.5	56	9
Indianapolis Colts	Los Angeles Chargers	45.5	15	5

We did not get into what happens when we combine wind and cold and what happens when we regress these things, to seean effect on the line and results, with more historical data than just this season. That is for another time.

**JayLA** · 12-23-22, 01:45 AM

I love it...
I'm on my phone on my couch Kay Vee Bee. Cant see all the graphs right. I'll check that out in my office asap.

So what you're saying is......we should look for overs to Bet, right?

**KVB** · 12-23-22, 01:59 AM

Originally posted by JayLA

I love it...
I'm on my phone on my couch Kay Vee Bee. Cant see all the graphs right. I'll check that out in my office asap.

So what you're saying is......we should look for overs to Bet, right?

That's a tough one. I'd like to say "look at these low lines, must be an overreaction" and we could see some OVERs this week in those games but this might not be the best week to try to hit OVERs.

We're talking cold and wind, to an extreme, in those games. It's the NFL, so the Cleveland/NewOrleans game just might go OVER...LMAO.

What about the home teams in those windy games though?

Those home scores are a TD better than road scores when the wind is high, at least this season.

Then again, high winds tonight and the road team won.

Then again, again, it was an NFL Thursday night game. Classic NFL.

I think we need to look at a this in a little more detail, have any of these lines moved too far? Is there a home team with moneyline value?

We're going to have dive in, and dig deeper...

**JayLA** · 12-23-22, 02:10 AM

**JayLA** · 12-23-22, 02:14 AM

I for one appreciate you sharing all of this KVB

This passes the nose test

Basketball • Nanjing Tongxi @ Beijing Ducks • Game Lines • Total • Under • 218.5

**JayLA** · 12-23-22, 02:16 AM

1 goal in guangzhauo

**JayLA** · 12-23-22, 02:37 AM

Cash Chinese cuntball over

This thread is good luck for me.

Cheers fellas

**stevenash** · 12-23-22, 07:46 AM

Originally posted by JayLA

Cash Chinese cuntball over

This thread is good luck for me.

I don't trust anything that bleeds for three days straight and lives.

And yes, this thread radiates good karma, I think KVB's green buds are mainly responsible for that

**jackpot269** · 12-23-22, 09:31 AM

Originally posted by KVB

Here are this week's games, Total lines, expected temps and expected winds, including tonight's game with NY and Jax, where there were high winds and the game ended UNDER.

High winds and low temps give us some low totals, especially in Cleveland, that looks to lead in both extremes this week...

Hm Team	Rd Team	Odds	Temp	Wind
New York Jets	Jacksonville Jaguars	36.5	48	17
San Francisco 49ers	Washington Commanders	37.5	61	4
New England Patriots	Cincinnati Bengals	41.5	20	13
Kansas City Chiefs	Seattle Seahawks	49.5	13	13
Chicago Bears	Buffalo Bills	39.5	9	22
Carolina Panthers	Detroit Lions	43.5	27	11
Tennessee Titans	Houston Texans	35.5	19	11
Cleveland Browns	New Orleans Saints	32.5	9	26
Pittsburgh Steelers	Las Vegas Raiders	38.5	12	15
Dallas Cowboys	Philadelphia Eagles	46.5	34	2
Baltimore Ravens	Atlanta Falcons	35.5	19	15
Arizona Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	40.5	59	2
Miami Dolphins	Green Bay Packers	50.5	56	9
Indianapolis Colts	Los Angeles Chargers	45.5	15	5

We did not get into what happens when we combine wind and cold and what happens when we regress these things, to seean effect on the line and results, with more historical data than just this season. That is for another time.

Thanks KVB for all the info good stuff.like the snow that Tony Montana
Gets!! Not sure on his last name

**stevenash** · 12-23-22, 10:01 AM

I watched, not looked at, but watched and paid attention to Pacino's acting in Scarface at least a dozen times.

One of the greatest acting jobs in history.
So many scenes he sells with his eyes alone is amazing.

**wolfmanmeadows** · 12-23-22, 05:06 PM

Originally posted by KVB

So check this out, from my office.

This is what would happen if you bet the same unit on every UNDER or ever OVER this NFL Season.

The first game of the season went UNDER and they haven't looked back. This does not count tonight's UNDER...

closing pinnacle lines? looking at some of the openers might be a little skewed because they are released so early nowadays for NFL in advanced

**wolfmanmeadows** · 12-23-22, 05:11 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Here's the breakdown of that Table above showing the 2022 Season so far. I already posted the Full Season and UNDER record.

Now we'll add all the Weather games (non roofed dome) and further break those down into Wind at 12+ mph, 15+mph, and games with an average temp of 40 degrees or less, the cold games, and the average home spreads.

Notice that, this season, when the wind is 15+ mph the Home Scores separate, as well as the home point spreads...

UND Record	2022 Season	Hm Score	Rd Score	Total Lines	Scores	Hm Spread
123-100-1	All games
	Avg	22.9	21.2	44.6	44.121	-1.5
	Med	23.0	20.5	44.5	43.0	-2.5

116-92-1	All Weather
	Avg	23.2	20.9	44.5	44.105	-1.5
	Med	23.0	20.0	44.5	42.0	-2.5

23-13	Wind 12+ mph
	Avg.	21.8	18.9	43.6	40.7	-2.3
	Med	21.0	21.0	42.8	40.5	-3.0

6-5	Wind 15+
	Avg	24.2	17.1	44.4	41.3	-3.8
	Med	23.0	17.0	44.5	43.0	-3.5

14-11	40 Deg or Less
	Avg	21.0	21.0	43.8	42.0	-2.4
	Med	20.0	23.0	43.5	44.0	-3.0

what is the purpose of sharing this information? what insights are we supposed to gleam from looking at single season statistics like that? how are you using this information? you reference historical data in the next post, maybe that is where the real insights are gleamed from. Maybe to get us thinking about variables like wind and temps and how that impacts the line setting and how we can use that in our forecasting/betting strategies

saw in the later post you said we need to "dive deeper". I guess you are commenting on the need for further analysis beyond what was originally posted, I guess that answers my question kind of

**wolfmanmeadows** · 12-23-22, 05:20 PM

LAL -3
MIL +2.5
IND +6

Lion's Mane mushrooms, unreal medicine #newleaseonlife

**MaltedHopsFrenzy** · 12-23-22, 05:44 PM

Anybody looking for a quick & easy ‘Bang Bang’ sauce recipe? Mix these 4 things together however you like, honey for sweet, Sriracha for spicy, & Dijon for tangy/savory.

Use on anything from chicken to pork or squirt it on top of sushi rolls. Impress your friends!

<a href="https://ibb.co/qxwqNxD"><img src="https://i.ibb.co/d7yCP7f/6419-E534-AD44-4804-820-C-3-AE6-F254-EDAC.jpg" alt="6419-E534-AD44-4804-820-C-3-AE6-F254-EDAC" border="0"></a> <a href="https://ibb.co/CPF4RF5"><img src="https://i.ibb.co/PD8Jq8Z/395-A04-AB-2-DF1-4-C70-B96-F-ADDD14-E08-E8-C.jpg" alt="395-A04-AB-2-DF1-4-C70-B96-F-ADDD14-E08-E8-C" border="0"></a>

**hubie69** · 12-23-22, 10:00 PM

Originally posted by wolfmanmeadows

LAL -3
MIL +2.5
IND +6

Lion's Mane mushrooms, unreal medicine #newleaseonlife

Lions Main shrooms are the shit. I take them daily as a supplement

**Bostongambler** · 12-23-22, 10:21 PM

I take Tiger whiskers daily.

**stevenash** · 12-24-22, 08:14 AM

Originally posted by Bostongambler

I take Tiger whiskers daily.

Couchgrass and crampbark, you know, I think that's what killed Curly.

**Bostongambler** · 12-24-22, 08:23 AM

It was beauty that killed the beast, not the fall.

**stevenash** · 12-24-22, 08:42 AM

Do you use hot water in the shower?

**stevenash** · 12-24-22, 08:56 AM

Eight degrees right now at 9am.
Wind Chill is negative ten degrees.

Yes Daggles, there is significant shrinkage.

[IMG]<a href="https://ibb.co/VJgxPYX"><img src="https://i.ibb.co/vV3hK42/2022-12-24.png" alt="2022-12-24" border="0"></a>[/IMG]

**Bostongambler** · 12-24-22, 09:44 AM

Originally posted by stevenash

Do you use hot water in the shower?

What is this word shower 🚿 you speak of?

**Bostongambler** · 12-24-22, 09:45 AM

Originally posted by stevenash

Eight degrees right now at 9am.
Wind Chill is negative ten degrees.

Yes Daggles, there is significant shrinkage.

[IMG]<a rel="nofollow" href="https://ibb.co/VJgxPYX"><img src="https://i.ibb.co/vV3hK42/2022-12-24.png" alt="2022-12-24" border="0"></a>[/IMG]

11 degrees here now. Going to be a cold 🥶 game later today!!!!

**stevenash** · 12-24-22, 09:57 AM

^
Up to nine degrees now.

Surprised you guys are a little warmer in Boston.

**jackpot269** · 12-24-22, 10:13 AM

Originally posted by stevenash

^
Up to nine degrees now.

Surprised you guys are a little warmer in Boston.

We were at 7 degrees at 7am we up to 9 now also! I'm in the south for gods sake!

Yesterday morning we were at 5 degrees at 7am! Holy crap!!