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Now I'm just throwing OPEN parlay hay makers, lol, but really if this doesn't belong I know not what does, it's a 4 pick open parlay...
To Win Short Description Football - 311 Green Bay Packers/Atlanta Falcons under 61½ -108 for Game Open Football - 311 Green Bay Packers/Atlanta Falcons under 61½ -113 for Game Football - 311 Green Bay Packers/Atlanta Falcons under 61½ -108 for Game Football - 313 Pittsburgh Steelers +6 -105 for Game Football - 313 Pittsburgh Steelers +212 for Game Football - 313 Pittsburgh Steelers +6 -105 for Game Open Football - 313 Pittsburgh Steelers +6 -110 for Game
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So I summed up the golf plays, with a few tournament winners called already, it's up a bunch, not sure I want to post it.
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Notice the pressure on the Steelers right now as the line pulls off of 6 to 5.5.
With the favorite winning the first game, money is shifting to the underdog.
Market moving money based on sharp analysts know the tendency of the markets. They are placing their wagers and we were just ahead of them.
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Money has shifted and if New England crushes them, there will be market repercussions.
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A couple of early live ones...
Short Description - Money Line: PIT Steelers +206.931 - Sun Jan 22 2017 18:29EST: PIT Steelers @ NE Patriots - Point Spread: PIT Steelers +6.5 -127.273 - Sun Jan 22 2017 18:29EST: PIT Steelers @ NE Patriots - Point Spread: PIT Steelers +6.5 -117.172 - Sun Jan 22 2017 18:29EST: PIT Steelers @ NE Patriots
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Picked up another +6.5 (-122)...
Short Description - Money Line: PIT Steelers +206.931 - Sun Jan 22 2017 18:29EST: PIT Steelers @ NE Patriots - Point Spread: PIT Steelers +6.5 -127.273 - Sun Jan 22 2017 18:29EST: PIT Steelers @ NE Patriots - Point Spread: PIT Steelers +6.5 -117.172 - Sun Jan 22 2017 18:29EST: PIT Steelers @ NE Patriots - Point Spread: PIT Steelers +6.5 -122.222 - Sun Jan 22 2017 18:29EST: PIT Steelers @ NE Patriots
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Picked up more +6.5 in other outs. I'm loaded for Pitt here...
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Laying it out there, I took Pittsburgh for the 2nd half...
Short Description Football - 313 Pittsburgh Steelers +6 -105 for Game Football - 313 Pittsburgh Steelers +212 for Game Football - 313 Pittsburgh Steelers +6 -105 for Game Football - 313 Pittsburgh Steelers +6 -110 for Game Football - 313 Pittsburgh Steelers -½ +100 for 2nd Half 
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One thing that is relevant to those who don't bet the same amount but allow the books to dictate their risk; it's big in baseball. Let’s look at the bookmaker’s perspective.
If a book takes -120 on New England and offers +100 on Pittsburgh then, from the bookmaker’s standpoint, he can often look at it this way: as a bettor hands him $120 to win $100 for New England, another bettor gives $100 to win to win $100 for Pittsburgh.
The bookmaker has taken in $220. If New England wins, he pays out $220; but if Pittsburgh wins, he pays out $200.
The book knows that the marketplace knows about this fact. It’s often used to lure bettors as well as for profit margins. It represents just one more mechanical aspect of the cat and mouse game, the give and take of the marketplace.
New England is trying to demoralize the Pittsburgh bettors, trying to keep them from coming back for more.
If there’s anyone the marketplace wants to scare off, it’s those Pittsburgh bettors hitting the line late. The public steam that looks to be froth tonight for the books that also hit that line is easy pickings often enough.
But the Pittsburgh girls are still some of the best…
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Win or lose, the work never stops. Let’s look at what has happened during the playoffs.
First, with the sharp forecast, notice there has to be a certain discrepancy for a bet to be triggered. With the other two forecasts I ignore the discrepancy for these tracking purposes and even a half point difference is considered triggered.
There have been ten games so far these playoffs.
Against the Spread:
The sharp forecast had 9 indications against the spread and was 5-4 against the spread having won 4 out of the last 5. Because of the high line of -16, no bet was triggered in that game despite a 21 point predicted New England win. As far as the line moving towards my sharp forecast, it happened in 5 cases and moved away from the sharp forecast in 5 cases.
Stacking forecast was 9-1 against the spread. Its only loss was the Green Bay upset at Dallas…which was predicted with the sharp forecast.
The public gauge was 1-6 against the opening lines and 2-8 against the closers.
Against the moneyline:
The sharp forecast was 6-1 against the moneyline with the only loss being KC losing to Pittsburgh. Not a large spread there and the sharp forecast showed profit against the moneyline. Incidentally, in the three games where a tie was projected, the raw score predicted winner was 2-1 against the moneyline. At 6-1 against the moneyline with one of those being a successful upset, one has to wonder whether the sharp forecast will succeed in its moneyline Super Bowl prediction, if it has one.
The stacking forecast was 8-1 against the moneyline (Dallas the loser and the KC vs Pitt game was a projected tie).
The public gauge was 7-3 against the moneyline and would have shown profit.
Against the TOTALS:
The sharp forecast was 0-5 against the Totals. Note that two games had very high predictions, much more than the line, but the market was considered too high for me to trigger an OVER bet; both of those games went OVER. Notice the give and take between successful moneyline predictions and recent ATS success and a losing TOTALS market.
The stacking forecast was 2-8 against the opening and 3-7 against the closing TOTAL lines. It was successful in the first three games, but never again. Again compare the give and take between the moneyline and ATS success and the dismal TOTAL performance. Also, in a sign of give and take, note that the stacking forecast was wrong against the spread and moneyline but successful against the TOTAL in the NCAAF Championship game.
The public gauge was 7-3 against opening and 5-5 against the closing TOTAL lines.
So there you have it. The performance of each forecast during the NFL playoffs as posted in the FlyMe thread. The TOTAL markets took a slide and a hit and I can say another market metric went 0-3 against the TOTALS when triggered. Some explanation can be given as the other bets faired so well against the market; it can be hard to get both.
The stacking forecast predicted 8 UNDERS only 2 OVERS during the playoffs. Could it have been missing something? With this sample and it being the playoffs, it doesn’t have to be the case.
Regardless, it was horrible and so were my bold play TOTAL predictions. We’ll get to that later.
Of more concern could be the missing 3 moneyline predictions that the sharp forecast showed as ties early on; at least they offered ATS predictions but a large metric was lost there. In fact, I was concerned about a decline in forecast efficiency when late in the season I had less NFL plays triggered against the spread.
Fortunately for the sharp forecast, during the playoffs 9 bets were triggered against the spread and while 5 lines moved towards my forecast, only 3 of them moved out of triggered bet range. That’s not bad and a solid indication of more decent NFL bets to come.
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I’ve had to page back through to track the bold plays, what a ride that was. It can be fun to revisit the Fly Me thread, pictures music and all.
I know bold plays are supposed to be reserved, like OPEN parlay plays, but I opened it up a bit for the playoffs, trying to get a bold play per game. After the playoffs, and into basketball, I’ll reserve those bold plays and open parlay plays to real market corners more patient plays.
Here are the bold plays I’ve posted in FlyMe over the NFL playoffs. In the far right I included links to the original post where the bold play was first posted. I also included the National Championship game.
The bold plays were 6-12 and we got lucky to only lose a little more than 4 units. I didn’t bother to register whether the closer was beat as most plays were made at or near the close. While I did beat the closer in many cases, that wasn’t the goal of the trading account.Issue 1 Unit per SBR Record Date Issue Result Bet Posted Link 0-1 1/7/17 OVER 44.5 (-108) Det vs Sea L -1.00 http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/saloon/2399514-fly-me-3-resurrection-sports-talk-good-tunes-great-times-anything-goes-p1536.html#post26687366 0-2 1/8/17 Mia +512 over Pitt L -1.00 http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/saloon/2399514-fly-me-3-resurrection-sports-talk-good-tunes-great-times-anything-goes-p1537.html#post26688380 0-3 Mia +11.5 (-104) over Pitt L -1.00 0-4 1/8/17 Gia +4.5 (-105) over GB L -1.00 http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/saloon/2399514-fly-me-3-resurrection-sports-talk-good-tunes-great-times-anything-goes-p1537.html#post26689989 1-4 1/8/17 Clemson +200 over Alabama W 2.00 2-4 Clemson +7 (-105) W 0.95 http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/saloon/2399514-fly-me-3-resurrection-sports-talk-good-tunes-great-times-anything-goes-p1537.html#post26691128 3-4 1/9/17 OVER 51 (-105) Clem vs Ala W 0.95 http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/saloon/2399514-fly-me-3-resurrection-sports-talk-good-tunes-great-times-anything-goes-p1537.html#post26693331 3-5 1/14/17 Sea +6.5 (-104) over Atl L -1.00 http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/saloon/2399514-fly-me-3-resurrection-sports-talk-good-tunes-great-times-anything-goes-p1538.html#post26707016 3-6 Hou +16 over NE L -1.00 http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/saloon/2399514-fly-me-3-resurrection-sports-talk-good-tunes-great-times-anything-goes-p1538.html#post26707836 3-7 Hou +935 over NE L -1.00 4-7 1/15/17 GB +185 over Dal W 1.85 http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/saloon/2399514-fly-me-3-resurrection-sports-talk-good-tunes-great-times-anything-goes-p1539.html#post26710653 5-7 GB +4.5 (-106) over Dal W 0.94 5-8 UNDER 53.5 (-102) GB vs Dal L -1.00 6-8 Pitt +120 over KC W 1.20 http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/saloon/2399514-fly-me-3-resurrection-sports-talk-good-tunes-great-times-anything-goes-p1539.html#post26711794 6-9 Over 45.5 (-103) Pitt vs. KC L -1.00 6-10 1/22/17 Under 61.5 (-108) GB vs Atl L -1.00 http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/saloon/2399514-fly-me-3-resurrection-sports-talk-good-tunes-great-times-anything-goes-p1541.html#post26728472 6-11 Pitt +6 (-105) over NE L -1.00 6-12 Pitt +212 over NE L -1.00 http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/saloon/2399514-fly-me-3-resurrection-sports-talk-good-tunes-great-times-anything-goes-p1542.html#post26730567 6-12 Total: -4.11
I was 1-4 on TOTALS for a loss of 3.05 units with bold plays. I was 3-3 against the moneylines for a profit of 2.05 units and 2-5 against the spread for a loss of 3.11 units.
It would be nice to see a positive return on those bold plays but I think it’s even nicer to show the flow of money and give a glimpse into market intricacies. I consider that loss of 4 units a bit of a cost to illustrate some points.
So there we go, honest tracking and pure transparency over the NFL playoffs. There has been a lot of trading and plays in that account including multiple shots of each spot. Overall the trading account is down a little bit from this playoff activity but posted golf plays have more than made up for it.
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We're not done here, I also have a golf summary since the wrap around season began in mid October. But first a break...
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It doesn't. At least I don't think it will. Pats will have an edge in the raw score, but once adjusted we go back to a pick. A bet will be triggered for either team +3.5 points.
The line opened and sits at NE -3. A lot of NE pressure may not be able to move that line up. The Atlanta moneyline may show value.
More on this later.
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kvb teaching a night class on sports gambling
would rather pay attention to her
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thanks for your theories kvb, gonna read through your posts
. my goal is to win $1 million
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stan wawrinka -141 unload
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THIS is why the internet was invented!
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...is dedicated to celebrating beautiful, God-fearing women who have been overcome by the seductive song of Satan and given into their inner desires.While the name of the subreddit refers to girls of the Christian faith, ALL RELIGIONS ARE WELCOME HERE and the only criteria for content is that there is some sort of religious symbolism, clothing, tattoos or iconography.
Christians, Catholics, Muslims, Jews, Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists, Pagans... The Church of Reddit does not discriminate! In this Holy Place of Worship, people of ALL creeds are welcome!Thou shalt only post images that are NSFW, so sayeth the Lord. This is not the place to post church pictures, it's the place to post pictures that would get you banned from the Church.Are you a Lady Redditor who has recently lost her way and is now fighting an inner battle with Satan?Then come, let The Church of Reddit help you find the light once again. Please feel free to submit nude pictures of yourself, along with accompanying religious iconography, and let the Lord know what he is missing.
Public nudity is the quickest path to redemption and the saving of one's soul. Only through the sharing of nakedness do we find purity.
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There's a GIF of what appears to be a nun squirting on a what appears to be a bible.
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A couple of trades...
Short Description - Money Line: OKC Thunder -117.114 - Mon Jan 23 2017 20:57EST: OKC Thunder @ UTA Jazz - Match Winner: Stan Wawrinka -165.152 - Mon Jan 23 2017 23:00EST: Stan Wawrinka v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 
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Perfect jaw having pussiesComment
