Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

[KVB]

...And what audience gets influenced by both significant numbers and market analysis? Sounds like bait to me.

The play is to not be enticed by the market attempts to draw you in; be patient. I wouldn't be surprised to see an UNDER, but I also wouldn't be surprised to to see that UNDER get stolen away late, NFL style...

The point here is about the bet demoralizing the bettor a bit here. If the target is that sharper audience then he needs to be "discouraged"...if you know what I mean. Or even cause him to rethink his methods.

A sheer blowout early of the total would accomplish the same goal.

We're watching this game on a "ho nutha level" this week. Remember, it's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

But KVB I am on San Diego +3.5

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Denver -3 here

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Denver -3 here

[KVB]

But KVB I am on San Diego +3.5

I'd rather have that than Denver. Maybe they'll win by 3 and everyone wins.

Like I said, that forecast with San Diego winning 24 or 27 to 21 is not to be taken lightly tonight.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

[KVB]

I still think that OVER splashes the pile tonight...

Football - .SAN DIEGO CHARGERS vs DENVER BRONCOS - Game - Total 43.5 (Including OT) Over 43.5 +134

Football - .SAN DIEGO CHARGERS vs DENVER BRONCOS - Game - Total 39.5 (Including OT) Over 39.5 -111

[KVB]

Even went with OVER 21 second half.

[KVB]

For shits and giggles, let's break down my early post about this game tonight...

…Sharpest forecast say Denver 41-31. That's triggers Denver up to -4 and the OVER. I think the Total and my forecast are entering a broader short term slump this year, I think this forecast could easily be wrong…
…It's just too easy to see San Diego getting the win here but it's the first game of the week…

As we saw, no triggered bet tonight paid. It wasn’t too hard to predict, especially with such a high profile week like last week. The Total forecast will struggle a bit moving forward, something good to know.

…The forecast that stacks percentages actually gives Sand Diego a win with 24 or 27 points (equal probability, in my opinion) to Denver's 21 points. This should not be taken lightly, San Diego can play with these guys and has motivation to do so…

Typo aside, this too was correct with San Diego winning outright.

…Public gauge says Denver wins 24-17. It's the lowest total, non predictive but could easily be the winner tonight…

This too was correct, with the lowest forecasted total, as the UNDER paid.

…I believe the sharpest long term forecasters and market readers understand there is a rift in the total markets. It appears as though the UNDER has been hit pretty hard by sharper money. To move off of 45.5 and onto 44 is pretty significant and implies oddsmaker error or intention. It's easy to believe they did not realize the pressure that would come by groups identifying what I call a "rift" or more like a shift…

Those following the CFL thread know that when I say something about sharper groups or more sophisticated, market moving money moving a certain direction, it can be good to pay attention. They were right tonight.

…The play is to not be enticed by the market attempts to draw you in; be patient. I wouldn't be surprised to see an UNDER, but I also wouldn't be surprised to to see that UNDER get stolen away late, NFL style…

I know I went live in this game, but it was a still a good pass from the outset, even though it was the UNDER, with Denver really being the disappointment (which is a note to remember).

We learned a lot from this game. Make no mistake; market techniques were at play here and in this give and take world, this situation will come up again. When it does the book will exploit tonight’s sharp winners and it won’t work out so well for those groups; and we’ll be waiting.

One final note about tonight, you’ve heard me mention at times when the number has sidelined certain types of money. Tonight that forecast that stacks percentages was basically sidelined for a TOTAL bet. Some looking roughly a 48 point forecast could make a case for an OVER play at the 44.5 level, but it’s marginal one given the equal 45 point prediction. With those players sidelined the rest of the sharp groups were paid.

Remembering this will help us identify future situations. Also, that second half line of -21 moved to -21.5 quickly, a little more of a dig on the OVER bettors and also worth remembering.

I may have lost the live nuggets and only pushed on the much, much bigger halftime bet, but overall my thoughts on the forecasts still provided pretty good information. Now you know what to look for when I post like this again.

I’d start an NFL thread but I’d want to write, like this, about every game. It wouldn’t be possible and I would need to focus on a conference or division. There’s a lot to cover and it can be best taught by example…so it’s time consuming.

Alright, enough.

[KVB]

This post will require far less thought than my last one...

[KVB]

Fukking first golf tournament of the new season suspended for rain, and I got shit on it. Fawk. I'm an idiot. Kicking myself this morning. Seems like the weather is fukking with the PGA a lot more than it used to. They even have a saying..."if you are having a drought, book a PGA tournament."

Grapes, a barometer for what you say? Golf can be a barometer for the direction of the market, towards settlement day...Sunday. It's a portion of bankroll for betting, but it's a seldom dipped in portion...a lot of tracking and little betting. I bet the first tourney though, and the weather is going to be terrible. Fawk.

Staring at an ominous black cloud, I mean black, out the window. It's heading my way but no wind.

Some of you guys in the midwest are probably used to far, far worse on the regular.

[KVB]

This kind of weather fuks with my neck for sure, not many solutions...

[PerfectGrape]

direction of the market.... up, down, sideways?
how can the sports betting market move in a direction? you mean a specific game? the way they set lines based on previous outcomes of favorites hitting or something? how does perception affect sports betting markets? perception drives investments, investments change the price based on supply and demand. but bookie has final say. let's move to puerto rico 183 days a year and start Big Stacks LLC

[PerfectGrape]

pound cleveland

[PerfectGrape]

going to the blues bros address tonight

[PerfectGrape]

5 rows behind sandberg at the game
congratulated ricketts on the big W when i passed by him on the sidewalk

heres the tips
eagles
lions over
sf/buf under
chi

[KVB]

direction of the market.... up, down, sideways?
how can the sports betting market move in a direction? you mean a specific game? the way they set lines based on previous outcomes of favorites hitting or something? how does perception affect sports betting markets? perception drives investments, investments change the price based on supply and demand. but bookie has final say. let's move to puerto rico 183 days a year and start Big Stacks LLC

The market moves up down or sideways, depending upon the angle you look at it. Somebody's up is very likely another's down. And somebody's down, in sports is also likely another's down, but is also someone's up.

Sideways is, for the most part, none of those things.

Money moves through a day, weekend, season, between leagues and within leagues. It moves within conferences and even within divisions. It even moves through regions, and localities.

Remember that total from Thursday night, the one with a significant move from open to close, well something did come up. In that same division, this afternoons game with KC and Raiders had the TOTAL open at 48, pass through 47 and even onto 45 in some spots.

One big difference, there was a bounce off of 45, back to 46. In all the numbers I named, 46 is not significant. From 45.5 onto and the current threat of passing off of 46 to 46.5) is not very significant. Should that line reach 47, it would say something more.

Not much time but I smell rat here. The NFL takes a lot of patience and this blatant, same division obviousness makes me question the obvious OVER play.

Not much time, but here are the numbers:

Sharpest forecast shows OAK winning 31-28. That triggers an OVER play at 47.5 and below, but not at 48.

Stacking percentages and details give us OAK winning 24-21. That's 45 points and has not triggered any bets, at any time. We would need a line of 48.5 or above to trigger in UNDER play and a line of 40.5 or below to trigger an OVER play.

The public gauge gives KC winning 26 to 23, 49 points.

Compare this to that Thursday game. The same forecast has been sidelined, but the public gauge (which won last time against the TOTAL) is above the line, instead of below. And the sharpest line calls for the OVER, again.

If we want to counter that UNDER play, an go against the sharp move, we join the public gauge, we don't oppose them.

One other difference we see is that today's line bounced off the lows. In Vegas, there wasn't much 45 at all, they held at 45.5 and 46. The bounce could be more of an illusion, possibly trying to drive some steam.

Finally, the NFL requires patience. This just seems too soon. There are too many reasons for the OVER play in Oakland today, and I am passing on it. Trying to get the OVER feels too much like trying to outsmart the book.

If it's UNDER, then we really know what to look for, but if the OVER pops this quick, we'll know what happened.

It takes 4 weeks of data to really work with sharp numbers in the NFL, but it takes about two weeks for good plays to develop and come to us...as opposed to trying to force the plays.

I've already put UNDER 48.5 in my open parlay and will take the loss like a man.

I know it's a bit past, but notice these online plays, notice the trouble the UNDER totals are having at halftime...

					Short Description
					Baseball - 953 Chicago Cubs -125 for Game Football - 269 Kansas City Chiefs/Oakland Raiders under 48½ -146 buying 1½ for Game Golf - 7428 P. Casey -155 for Game
					Football - 258 Miami Dolphins +7 -101 for Game
					Football - 268 Washington Redskins +3 -113 for Game
					Golf - 7401 R. Castro -135 for Game Golf - 7428 P. Casey -155 for Game
					Football - 256 Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints under 54 -103 for Game
					Football - 268 Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Redskins under 45 -102 for Game

Money is moving Grapes, and it will shift big time this afternoon. I sense a bit of disappointment, again, for the OVER backers, even thought we just saw that on Thursday night.

Last Thursday I said it should be the UNDER but it could get stolen NFL style...Denver failed to steal. This afternoon I say it should be the OVER but it will get stolen, NFL style.

Let's hope I didn't talk myself out of a good OVER.

[PerfectGrape]

thanks for posting your kooky theories, gotta think it over

-125 on the cubs? you mean dodgers?

thinking fade the public and take oakland, kc offense ruins the over

[KVB]

Here's BTP for me, my first play was a push with Miss St. +7 over BYU. That total is x2 and made earlier. I still need one more play, will probably react for one of the night games...

Kansas City vs Oakland Under 46.5 (-110)NFL [General]
10/16/16 04:05 PM ET
MIAMI +7 (-110)NFL [General]
10/16/16 01:00 PM ET
WASHINGTON +3 (-120)NFL [General]
10/16/16 01:00 PM ET

I'm sitting on the "Field" bet in the Golf tourney, with the two guys leading coming from the Field.

Paul Casey may make a move though.

But now that shit's suspended again...rain.

[KVB]

thanks for posting your kooky theories, gotta think it over

-125 on the cubs? you mean dodgers?

thinking fade the public and take oakland, kc offense ruins the over

That was an open parlay, That Cubs game was from October 11. The golf play may push, shouldn't have put it in there and the TOTAL carries some risk there, but buying the points sealed it for me.

May sound kooky, but I was hoping to catch some market analysis by example, hopefully.

I wouldn't buy KC, that's for sure. One thing I do know, there is a lot of action on this game between KC and Oak. That ATS fact alone makes "fading the public" a profitable long term venture...statistically. Volume is important in that research.

Today seems about totals as well, so I focused there.

[KVB]

I think that if KC and OAK was the OVER today that we would not see the pressure hit back to 47, but it's really pushing that way.

I think this bounce from the low is a sign that the OVER is at the very least, a pass. But taking the UNDER at these levels below 47 seems risky. Could we see a 47 point game?

Remember, 45.5 to 46.5 is nothing. It's coming onto and off of 45 and 47 that really make a difference here.

[KVB]

Raiders drove early, even scored. I have been buying live the UNDER 47, 48, 48.5 and 51.5.

I have them all!!

[KVB]

Buying the OVER halftime could produce a middle opportunity.

But that 23 halftime moved to 23.5, rather quickly. Does that sound familiar? Remember 21 to 21.5?

Shit, halftime lines tend to bounce faster than that two week time frame. But they don't have to.

Once again, it SHOULD be the OVER, and I wouldn't be surprised to see 24 as a closing line.

[KVB]

It was the UNDER but when it's time, we'll be all over the OVER. I want you to see some of these bookmaking techniques in action. But I knew better, the OVER wasn't coming today. I've been here before and use other metrics that hinted towards the UNDER.

We'll be there large when it's time for that OVER, indeed we will. I considered an edit of some posts above, but I'll leave them. These two games have brought forth just a few of many aspects to market analysis. It can almost only be shown and some conclusions only be reached by example. Above there is word on key numbers as well as some insight into what it means to avoid some losing plays. Also some insight into the flow of money in the market.

[gauchojake]

Total for the MNF game looks like it's doing the exact same thing. Would you care to opine sir?

[KVB]

Total for the MNF game looks like it's doing the exact same thing. Would you care to opine sir?

It's not the same, and the number 46 is the reason why...

...Remember, 45.5 to 46.5 is nothing. It's coming onto and off of 45 and 47 that really make a difference here...

Sure, Thursday night's game started at 46, but it moved onto 45, then off of 45, and onto 44. Through 45.

Sunday afternoon's game opened at 48. It went off of 48, onto 47, off of 47, then onto 45. Through 47.

Moving through 45 and onto 44, and through 47 and onto 45 carry more significance in the marketplace than coming off and onto 46.

Tonight's game may have come off of 47 early (many places opened with 46.5 ) and it did move onto 45 where's it's jumped to and from 45.5, but it didn't really pass through a significant number...just onto one.

It wasn't much of a move at all. This is the difference. Don't be fooled by 46, it's a lot like the spread 5. Coming onto and off of a 5 point spread is practically meaningless when compared to coming on and off of 4 or 6.

But, as you can see, there is still meaning to hovering on those insignificant numbers...false signals.

Gaucho, you bring up a good point and add to the case of yet another UNDER tonight because of those false signals.

[KVB]

I think I have a pretty good idea as to why that Total line hasn't moved much. Thursday I said there was a rift in the Total markets, Sunday we saw almost all OVERS...Like I said it's not just what they bring, it's how they bring it.

I was able to pull out one of the losing OVERS, and you saw what happened. In these give and take markets there tends to be equalizing games. You saw this play out in week 5 with a sharp forecast with a push on Sunday night and the Carolina failure Monday.

I said yesterday that this week was about totals, and indeed a day of totals SHOULD have been equalized with a night game UNDER.

Last nights game was an under until 17 points went off with minutes to go, stealing it from the UNDER crowd and pushing the side. Sound familiar? I was seeking that in the games in this thread...a stolen result.

Anyway, tonight's game could very well be the UNDER, but I may be passing.

Here's the numbers:

1. Sharp forecast says Zona wins 31-14.

2. "Stacking" forecast says Zona wins 31 to the Jets 13 or 14 (with equal probability).

3. The public guage is wacky with a 5 or point Zona win with 48 or 49 points. (something close to 27-21).

All sides point to a Zona win, and you know how that can go.

But for the totals, notice the first two forecasts. The sit right at 45 (or 44 with #2).

Are we surprised the line has honed to 45.5 or even 45? Many groups are sidelined here, obviously, as we should be. But the market analyst in me wants to force an UNDER tonight.

I think UNDER 45.5 could be the way to go, but I haven't committed...there is a gamble clearly as implied by the forecasts and lines.

I still need on final Beat the Prick play, I already beat him with 3 wins (3-0-1) but I need a fifth play this week. Last time I checked I was in the top 40 with over 1600 players. After the first two weeks I made a bit of a comeback.

[KVB]

[gauchojake]

I don't know enough about the key numbers in totals to read the tea leaves so thank you for the info. I usually think about them at the end of the game when I bet some stupid number and the look of horror washes over my face as I realize that another score is going to fukk me by a half point. I usually stay away since I know that I don't know shit about them.

[KVB]

[Fidel_CashFlow]

KVB,



the tightnesssssssssssssss, abnormal ,
hope your buddy is riiiiight

[KVB]

PaaaaaayShuuuunz. You should be getting better, not worse. You getting worse? It takes time to even figure out what normal is after what happened. Sometimes months, not weeks.

PM me if you want.

[PerfectGrape]

[Bostongambler]

Penis fly trap?

[KVB]

Penis fly trap?

I didn't see a Kardashian in that pic...lol

The passion flower comes in red too...