Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

[JMon]

Royals

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Work work work work work work work work work work

[PerfectGrape]

cubs will win tonight

[JMon]

cubs will win tonight

Royals will too!

[KVB]

Royals

Line move against you Jmon, I have game a virtual pick em with a slight edge to Houston. When I lay a some regressed market numbers over the plays I get a little more of an edge towards Houston winning. Numbers wise I am not surprised Houston bets were triggering around -115 pushing it to what I think is too far. Now at better than +120 I think KC bets are triggered.

From a market perspective I like KC here too. I'm looking at KC +1.5 at -140 and thinking "she ain't chubby, she JUICY!"

As in I'm taking it for sure.

[KVB]

Normally, if an upset like this was coming, I would see signs.

That said, the complete absence of signs (I'll explain some later about "signs") also can imply an upset for the obvious reason that not seeing something coming makes for the biggest upsets.

missed the game again and the lynx the other day but found this post intriguing...

Bumping this because I want to get back to it. Some of this is in that CFL thread. Like I said before, that thread isn't really about Canadian Football, it's about the sports betting marketplace and markets in general.

Let's think about it for now. In your experience, what are some signs that there may be an upset brewing. Or better yet, since we aren't competing against the books (at least for the most part) and we are competing against other bettors, what might other bettors (regardless of level) think would be signs that an upset is coming?

Start very basic. And consider these words of wisdom...

One way to look at the market participants, particularly the public bettors, is to view them as two types. There are streak riders and streak breakers. These bettors either heavily rely on or ignore the “due factor.” When it comes to ATS statistics, commonly used but rarely useful (a topic of another thread all together), if bettors are paying attention, they can see that the “due factor” gets built into the opening line.

If bettors are creating their own line, they can begin to see which type of bettor is hitting the market harder and see when those bettors are in line with sharper money. They can see when the market swings too far in one direction and take advantage of the value created.

For the most part, this is what old school professionals mean when they say “go against the public.”

One more thing, whether you have or agree with any explanation for it, you’ll find that when multiple types of bettors align themselves, there’s often trouble. To profit from this knowledge requires tremendous patience and discipline...

Anyway, just a bump so here's some azz...

[Fidel_CashFlow]

cubs will win tonight

does it really even matter
ask yourself that... does it really even matter if they win or not

[PerfectGrape]

Sky line gonna hit +4.5?

[Fidel_CashFlow]

I mean its the fukkin Cubs we are talking about here
who cares what they do in the regular season .
They have just as good of a shot at winning this years World Series
if they make the playoffs as they would if they dont make the playoffs ......

GOT IT ?

[KVB]

...I can make a reasonable model giving Dallas an 86-82 victory...

That correctly predicted the moneyline, spread and total. My analysis on the other hand, was dead wrong, despite the winning bet...lol.

For moneylines I am 5-1 and ATS I am 4-0 out of the last 6 WNBA games (two spreads had no discrepancy with the market).

I know it's only six games and they aren't posted, but they aren't all bets. This is the record of my numbers. Tonight there are 4 games here are my predictions...

Washington beating Phoenix and covering the spread as favorite at home.

New York beating Chicago as the favorite, but Chicago covering the spread on the road.

Minnesota beating LA as the favorite, but LA covering the spread on the road.

Finally an upset with the Connecticut road team outright winning in Seattle.

I'm sensing a little Friday night market set up. We will have some results by the final game but something already tells me Connecticut is not winning that game.



And now for a daily dose...

[KVB]

I mean its the fukkin Cubs we are talking about here
who cares what they do in the regular season .
They have just as good of a shot at winning this years World Series
if they make the playoffs as they would if they dont make the playoffs ......

GOT IT ?

Speaking of streak breaking and riding bettors, I suppose many Cub bettors have finally gotten arrogant in their "I'll just double up if they lose" style of play. They may have given a bit back and one more loss could be the final blow to many bettors.

Right now the desperate are cheering, but it's only the first inning and we know how it usually works out for the desperate.

I went live for Marlins +465.

[PerfectGrape]

feeling that suns pick, take the money and run

ill let you guys know if tony moves the sparks to +5

[Fidel_CashFlow]

lol Grapes ignoring me . You lil turdnugget

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Speaking of streak breaking and riding bettors, I suppose many Cub bettors have finally gotten arrogant in their "I'll just double up if they lose" style of play. They may have given a bit back and one more loss could be the final blow to many bettors.

Right now the desperate are cheering, but it's only the first inning and we know how it usually works out for the desperate.

I went live for Marlins +465.

went from 4-0 to 4-4

[Fidel_CashFlow]

looks like sweep is no longer a Fly Me Ridah

But you know its Blood In Blood Out when dealing with the Fly Me Crew

tossed his ass out of the Fly Me plane

[KVB]

feeling that suns pick, take the money and run

ill let you guys know if tony moves the sparks to +5

I have Minny Lynx winning by 3 points. That line opened lower then blew through it. I know of some pressure on LA +5.5 so it will be interesting. Look for Heritage or Pinny to move first.

LOL...Marlins scored.

It could be a shakeout alright.

[KVB]

went from 4-0 to 4-4

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[ATTACH]90538[/ATTACH]

[PerfectGrape]

testing out the new alert system, hoping it moves to +5

[KVB]

...I know of some pressure on LA +5.5 so it will be interesting. Look for Heritage or Pinny to move first...

KVB knows, Pinny and Heritage have moved to 5.

[KVB]

I picked up a little Sparks +5.5 at 5 Dimes.

[KVB]

testing out the new alert system, hoping it moves to +5

Did you pick up the other houses? Just 5 Dimes?

5 Dimes not going to budge, at least not that I know of.

Whatchu smokin' on Grapes? What you workin' on over there?

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Do you all remember the shitty quarterback Tarvaris Jackson ???

[JMon]

yep

[Fidel_CashFlow]

lol Jmon . This isnt a joke.
He pointed a gun at his wife
its what she said to him in that moment that is hilarious


she said “better be accurate because you ain’t accurate on the field.”


what a fukkin savage she is

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Quarterback Tarvaris Jackson is without a team for the 2016 season, although that may be the least of his worries in the near future.

Chris Hush of WESH in Orlando reports that Jackson was arrested for aggravated assault after pulling a gun on his wife.Hush shares a shot of the police report from the Osceola County Sheriffs Office from an officer who reported to the scene of a domestic disturbance.
Per the report, Jackson was intoxicated and loaded his gun during an argument with his wife before telling her “I’ll kill you, bitch.

” Another adult who was at the house grabbed Jackson before things could escalate any further.
Jackson’s wife told police she feared for her life and grabbed an iron and knife at points for protection, but Jackson initially said nothing more than arguing occurred. He also told police that there was no gun in the house, but they found a handgun on the kitchen counter along with marijuana.
Jackson later told police he did grab a bag containing his gun and told his wife that he should shoot her. Per the report, Jackson’s wife replied that he “better be accurate because you ain’t accurate on the field.”
The Seahawks signed Trevone Boykin and Jake Heaps as backup options forRussell Wilson after Jackson filled the role for the last three years. They’ve said the door isn’t closed on a return to the team, although this incident and whatever happens next could certainly shut it.

[JMon]

lol Jmon . This isnt a joke.
He pointed a gun at his wife
its what she said to him in that moment that is hilarious


she said “better be accurate because you ain’t accurate on the field.”


what a fukkin savage she is

lol,,,is she dead?


oh I guess not!

[KVB]

[Fidel_CashFlow]

lol

[Fidel_CashFlow]

here's a picture of her crazy ass right here






she looks bout like I thought she would LOL

[Fidel_CashFlow]

matter of fact, the bitch looks like Tarvaris if he was to put on a wig

[JMon]

well penetrate me!

[KVB]

well penetrate me!

That's what I'm saying about the first inning in the Houston/KC game.

KC is going to need to score.

[PerfectGrape]

might have an important message to deliver if the under 11.5 -110 budges

[JMon]

That's what I'm saying about the first inning in the Houston/KC game.

KC is going to need to score.

lol...going to bed!