Tournament Strategy - 2018

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I made a Strategy thread in 2017, which was received pretty well.

Starting up another one for 2018. Main idea is to present hands and discuss if you like how it's played or if you would play it differently etc.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I found this interesting hand from WSOP Europe 2017. Hand starts around 2:35:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etH_kBhgK44

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I think the Pre-flop action is pretty standard. Fireworks take off on the flop:

* Kempe raises w/ 99.
* Bicknell calls on button w/ AJ(spades).
* Farrell 3-bets from SB w/ AK(off-suit).
* Ho calls from BB w/ TT. Note: this calling range is so tight. You're saying that your hand is too good to fold, but not strong enough to 4-bet. IMHO, this is really only JJ/TT/99. Even 88 might fold. I think Ho's holding is that face-up.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

* Kempe (holding 99) calls the re-raise vs 2 opponents. I think you have to. With the $$ in the pot and vs two opponents, I think he's catching the right odds to call w/ pocket pair 22 to 99.
* Bicknell closes the action, by calling vs 3 opponents. I know this is a great price, and I can't disagree. Critics might say u fold here, b/c you're too much at risk of being dominated.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Flop is super-wet, coming JT7 (hearts).

Farrell's flop-bet sets up all the action. He goes all-in...w/ a massive Overbet! 1050 into 624pot. He overbet the pot by 50%! If u are up against Farrell...what are u viewing his bet range as?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I can tell u one holding that he DOESN'T make that bet with. AK (hearts)!

If he flopped the nuts w/ a re-draw to the Royal...no way does he want to fold out the world. I feel like that's the only unpaired combo that he could even think about going all-in with.

If he really is holding AK(hearts)...I think he takes one of two lines. 1) Check, and hope to lure in action behind. Or 2) Bet 1/4 stack, about 270 (into 640). You'd be setting up the Turn-shove and allowing opponents to see one card.

Of course, over-pairs are in his range. Does it matter if his pair included a Heart? If he doesn't hold a Heart, I think he may well go all-in w/ black AA (or black KK or black QQ).

Here's the thing about no-limit tournaments. Bet-sizing is often NOT directly proportional to strength of holding. If you see a huge overbet...I would think first about two holdings:

1) Playing a huge-draw.
2) A strong holding that is at RISK of opponent catching up.

Wetter the board, bigger the bet, b/c you want to charge your opponent's draw.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

My 2-cents. If we can break down Farrell's action to two bet-sizes...this is the way I think he plays it:

* $270-bet size. AK(h), AA/KK/QQ (that include a Heart).
...I'm saying that these are made-hands that are NOT that vulnerable. Nut-flush or overpair w/ a re-draw. In that case, still have 11outs which would improve to a huge hand.

* $1050-bet size. I believe these are draw-heavy hands where he's trying to apply massive aggression.
...I think he WOULD play JJ like this. But that's only 3 combos.
...That leaves the other end of his range. Just my two-cents...but I think it's very ez to put him on the exact holding he has. AK w/ Ace(hearts). Or possibly AK w/ King(hearts). That would be 8 combos, with 12outs to the nuts (or 2nd-nuts).
...I think he also plays OVERPAIRS w/o a Heart like this.

Farrell is trying to fold out the world here. He's a good player, but he is an Aggro player. In Farrell's mind, what hands are CALLING his all-in?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

In Farrell's mind, I think he'd say that he wants to fold out everything except Flushes, Straights, and Sets.

Ho COULD have JJ...but the other two couldn't. Not in his wildest dreams did Farrell think he could fold out TT (which Ho or maybe Kempe could hold).

Kempe or Bicknell could hold 77. Bicknell COULD have 89...but it would be hard to call w/o including a Heart.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

As the action progresses...I can't believe Ho folds. If you have TTT and are up against JJJ...so be it.

The key to the hand (to me) is that Farrell wouldn't ever be that aggro w/ a Loch Ness MOnster like AK(hearts). Any flop action would give him a chance to check/raise All-in.

EZ for me to say. I just can't believe Ho bought it. Incredible fold.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

The other part of this hand that's so amazing to me is HOW QUICKLY Kempe and Bicknell folded. Farrell's aggro-action scared the hell out of the table. Staring at their tournament-life...they folded w/o giving it a 2nd-thought.

Nobody even pondered the idea that Farrell was on a combo draw? Kempe would be getting very much the right price, if he's up against black Aces, especially w/ one out to the coco-nuts. Would be a very tough call. But he didn't even contemplate it.

Bicknell also caught a nice piece of this board. Top-pair top-kicker, admittedly w/ almost no re-draw. Would be a very tough call. I'm just surprised that no one smelled a rat in the kitchen. Adding to how strong Farrell's play looked is the fact that he bet into 3 opponents.

What a hand. Just got me thinking. I think it could have played out much differently.

Understand that Farrell is a beast. He didn't have to have the nuts there. Still can't believe Ho folded.

[daneblazer]

I think the Pre-flop action is pretty standard. Fireworks take off on the flop:

* Kempe raises w/ 99.
* Bicknell calls on button w/ AJ(spades).
* Farrell 3-bets from SB w/ AK(off-suit).
* Ho calls from BB w/ TT. Note: this calling range is so tight. You're saying that your hand is too good to fold, but not strong enough to 4-bet. IMHO, this is really only JJ/TT/99. Even 88 might fold. I think Ho's holding is that face-up.

Not out of the question she calls with KK-AA, so if you’re Farrell you can definitely narrow it down

[daneblazer]

As the action progresses...I can't believe Ho folds. If you have TTT and are up against JJJ...so be it.

The key to the hand (to me) is that Farrell wouldn't ever be that aggro w/ a Loch Ness MOnster like AK(hearts). Any flop action would give him a chance to check/raise All-in.

EZ for me to say. I just can't believe Ho bought it. Incredible fold.

I just watched the hand... she's in a tough spot. Farrell just showed strength by over betting his hand. At best, she has a 2/3 chance to win even if he has AhXx and the others fold. At worst, she's dead in the water. Probably thought she was going to be either a little ahead or way behind and folded.

[Auto Donk]

I can tell u one holding that he DOESN'T make that bet with. AK (hearts)!

If he flopped the nuts w/ a re-draw to the Royal...no way does he want to fold out the world. I feel like that's the only unpaired combo that he could even think about going all-in with.

If he really is holding AK(hearts)...I think he takes one of two lines. 1) Check, and hope to lure in action behind. Or 2) Bet 1/4 stack, about 270 (into 640). You'd be setting up the Turn-shove and allowing opponents to see one card.

Of course, over-pairs are in his range. Does it matter if his pair included a Heart? If he doesn't hold a Heart, I think he may well go all-in w/ black AA (or black KK or black QQ).

Here's the thing about no-limit tournaments. Bet-sizing is often NOT directly proportional to strength of holding. If you see a huge overbet...I would think first about two holdings:

1) Playing a huge-draw.
2) A strong holding that is at RISK of opponent catching up.

Wetter the board, bigger the bet, b/c you want to charge your opponent's draw.

yep, all i need to see is the overbet/attempt to steal and I know he doesn't have a made hand.... I call with the set.... hopefully pair the bd/hit quads to remove all doubt.... dodge two hearts... but i'm not layin down the set there

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Nice comments, Donk. Listen to Farrell's comments after the hand. He knew exactly what he was doing. Joked about the over-bet and how that HAD TO include the Ace(hearts).

I see this a lot. Short-stack situation, where a huge overbet looks super-strong. But it's actually a move of desperation.

Think about it. ON THE FLOP...in terms of absolute value, Farrell is in 4th place out of 4. As for the other players:
* I just don't see how Ho folds. You got the flop u want in the sense that u hit a monster. Don't concede an opponent flopping even bigger there (ie, a flush). Top tournament pros bet combo-draws very hard.
* After Ho folds...I can't believe Kempe didn't give his hand a longer thought. Assuming Bicknell is going to fold...Kempe has a fantastic hand that plays well vs Farrell's range. You can't just give Farrell so much credit to think he has AA w/ an Ace(h). How many Hearts are in the deck?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

* In my note above, I guess AK(h) would not be THE NUTS on that flop. Technically, someone COULD be holding 89(h) for a straight-flush.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

This hand was written about in recent issue of CardPlayer. Some of the items written above came into discussion:

* Farrell put Ho's range on 99-QQ.
* Farrell thought Ho's fold was an error.
* Farrell knew that L2 callers were moderate strength as well and that the flop hit their range pretty hard.

* Farrell talked about his potential betting ranges on flop. Said that he might check AA w/ Ace(h), where there are fewer scare-cards.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I ran the numbers on the Farrell hand. Farrell goes all-in, Ho folds.

With action on Kempe...he quickly folds. I don't know how he doesn't think about that longer. I still say that the hand Farrell DOESN'T have is AK(hearts). If he had that hand, he would bet for value, not to fold out the world.

The way I see it...Farrell has AK (w/ Ace hearts), JJ, or an overpair w/o Heart. Considering that Kempe would be catching +160 odds and assuming Bicknell folds, here are his equities:

A(h)/K(c)....465 win prob/529 losers...ROI = +21.5%
JJ................366/628...ROI = -4.2%
A(c)/A(s).....512/482...ROI = +33.7%

Kempe would be +21% vs the actual hand Farrell has. Kempe would be only -4% vs Top-set! Kempe would be +33% vs black Aces. The way I see it...Kempe would be doing great vs Farrell's range. You can't just concede the nuts to an opponent.