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**brettd** · 03-24-13, 08:03 AM

Why don't you post this at 2+2

**NoHero** · 03-24-13, 11:49 AM

I like waffles.

**TheCentaur** · 03-24-13, 02:28 PM

Originally posted by brettd

Why don't you post this at 2+2

I did no one knows so far

**hobbesITD** · 03-24-13, 02:29 PM

Just got up and this is probably wrong but I think ~11.9%. Basically an Ace or 4/5 cards are K,Q,J,10.

e: Nope, still have to exclude probability of a flush. You're asking how often button survives but BB is knocked out, right?

vvv: Yeah, nevermind. I'll get some coffee and maybe look at this later.

**TheCentaur** · 03-24-13, 02:52 PM

Originally posted by hobbesITD

Just got up and this is probably wrong but I think ~11.9%. Basically an Ace or 4/5 cards are K,Q,J,10.

An Ace doesn't do it because then AK wins the whole pot and I go out in 2nd.

Really the only way this happens is A10 gets a two pair or full house while AK pairs his Ace, a flush made for A10 offsuit's hand but an A or K with no 8 for big stack to beat my 88s, a straight for A10 with a pair of Aces or Kings with no 8 to beat my 8s, or tying straights against my 88s

Oh and trip 10s with a K on board

Just trying to figure out what the probability of this is

**Kaabee** · 03-24-13, 03:25 PM

Originally posted by TheCentaur

An Ace doesn't do it because then AK wins the whole pot and I go out in 2nd.

Really the only way this happens is A10 gets a two pair or full house while AK pairs his Ace, a flush made for A10 offsuit's hand but an A or K with no 8 for big stack to beat my 88s, a straight for A10 with a pair of Aces or Kings with no 8 to beat my 8s, or tying straights against my 88s

Oh and trip 10s with a K on board

Just trying to figure out what the probability of this is

there are other ways too. Two pair on board greater than 8's. Trips on board with an ace. Quads on board.

**TheCentaur** · 03-24-13, 03:34 PM

Originally posted by Kaabee

there are other ways too. Two pair on board greater than 8's. Trips on board with an ace. Quads on board.

True

**TheCentaur** · 03-24-13, 03:39 PM

The two pair on board would have to be some combo of 9s,Js, or Qs though

**NunyaBidness** · 03-24-13, 03:46 PM

These sort of 'omg look at what a bad beat it was based on the math' questions make us feel better, but they do nothing to improve your game. Your time is better spent elsewhere.

**TheCentaur** · 03-24-13, 04:05 PM

Bonus question:

Which is more of a long shot?

My tournament ending on that hand in 3rd place

or

NunyaBidness offering any type of relevant or helpful reply?

**NunyaBidness** · 03-24-13, 05:08 PM

If you don't see that my reply is the most helpful one then you've got a long way to go.

**TheCentaur** · 03-24-13, 05:28 PM

If you don't think mathematical analysis of poker hands is an important part of the game then you should stay in the MMA subforum you think you own

**NunyaBidness** · 03-24-13, 07:12 PM

I've played poker professionally for over 10 years. Mathematical analysis is important in poker.

If you think knowing what percentage of the time you get bad beated here is considered any sort of mathematical analysis, you're a clown.

Start analyzing 0,1 games if you're interested in the 'mathematical anlysis of poker hands.'

**NunyaBidness** · 03-24-13, 07:14 PM

Not to mention, Math-guy, your original question is UNANSWERABLE without a few more significant pieces of information.

And even then, your questions improves from unanswerable to worthless.

**TheCentaur** · 03-24-13, 07:29 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

I've played poker professionally for over 10 years.

And been a prick your whole life no doubt.

It's obvious what is going on here. You don't know how to calculate the answer so you determine it is unimportant. If you could easily answer the question, you would have answered it and scolded me for posting such a simple question.

Pray tell what is the missing info that you need? If it is some stupid argumentative crap like are there rebuys or what if the blinds are 50k/100k just keep it to yourself.

**NunyaBidness** · 03-24-13, 07:36 PM

Definitely been a prick my whole life.

Have fun with these day 1 questions.

When you're ready for it, pick up The Mathematics of Poker by Bill Chen. When you don't understand a word of it, I'm sure amazon will take a return.

Good luck with your 'mathematical analysis of poker' though.

**TheCentaur** · 03-24-13, 07:51 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Definitely been a prick my whole life.

Have fun with these day 1 questions.

When you're ready for it, pick up The Mathematics of Poker by Bill Chen. When you don't understand a word of it, I'm sure amazon will take a return.

Good luck with your 'mathematical analysis of poker' though.

Still have no answer and can think of no missing relevant info huh?

So your bs and self burial continues...

**Kaabee** · 03-24-13, 07:54 PM

what is this mysterious missing information?

**TheCentaur** · 03-24-13, 08:06 PM

Originally posted by Kaabee

what is this mysterious missing information?

He doesn't know or he would have said by now

**TheCentaur** · 03-25-13, 04:11 AM

Nevermind I got it

**NunyaBidness** · 03-25-13, 01:40 PM

All you need to do is write a 3 handed monte carlo simulation, specifying outputs of where C > B and A. If this was a useful thing to know, why wouldn't it be included in pokerstove, or twodimes.net, or any of the other standard hand comparison utilities?

Furthermore, all edge in poker comes from people making mistakes. Assuming standard late tournament blinds here, no one made a mistake if the action went shove, shove, call. If no one made a mistake, then there is no edge to be gained, so what is the point of the analysis?

There isn't one, except for you to whine, "oh man, look at this bad beat." Bet it was a penetrating freeroll too.

**TheCentaur** · 03-25-13, 08:54 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

All you need to do is write a 3 handed monte carlo simulation, specifying outputs of where C > B and A. If this was a useful thing to know, why wouldn't it be included in pokerstove, or twodimes.net, or any of the other standard hand comparison utilities?

Furthermore, all edge in poker comes from people making mistakes. Assuming standard late tournament blinds here, no one made a mistake if the action went shove, shove, call. If no one made a mistake, then there is no edge to be gained, so what is the point of the analysis?

There isn't one, except for you to whine, "oh man, look at this bad beat." Bet it was a penetrating freeroll too.

You took the trouble to research what you didn't know, come back later and write how simple it was, write more scathing remarks about my stupidity and ignorance, and you are still way off!

The actual equation would be:

Ad10s >= AcKc > 8h8d

Maybe just stay out of it next time if you don't know the answer and only want to criticize

**Art Vandeleigh** · 03-26-13, 12:12 PM

"An Ace doesn't do it because then AK wins the whole pot and I go out in 2nd.

Really the only way this happens is A10 gets a two pair or full house while AK pairs his Ace, a flush made for A10 offsuit's hand but an A or K with no 8 for big stack to beat my 88s, a straight for A10 with a pair of Aces or Kings with no 8 to beat my 8s, or tying straights against my 88s

Oh and trip 10s with a K on board

Just trying to figure out what the probability of this is"

For the first part (A10 gets a two pair or full house while AK pairs his Ace), that is like the probabilty of make a set (3rd Ace showing up but no 3rd 8) * probabilty of 10 showing up with no King or 8, which should be around 1/5 *1/8 , so about 2.5% for just that to occur, I'd say the other possibilities probably add up to less than 2%, maybe you were around 22 to 25-1 to get knocked out in 3rd place is my best guess.

**NunyaBidness** · 03-26-13, 02:52 PM

You should continue to let your bruised ego to get in the way of growth.

**MadTiger** · 03-26-13, 02:59 PM

Using Pokerstove

20.732% of the time, Small Blind wins or ties with the other player for the pot, and knocks out Big Blind.

(Why write a Monte Carlo simulation for poker hands when one is already out there?)

**TheCentaur** · 03-26-13, 06:06 PM

Originally posted by MadTiger

Using Pokerstove

20.732% of the time, Small Blind wins or ties with the other player for the pot, and knocks out Big Blind.

No it needs to be the button wins or ties with the other player and knocks out big blind. The program I used came up with ~ 7%

Originally posted by MadTiger

(Why write a Monte Carlo simulation for poker hands when one is already out there?)

He doesn't know. Just ignore him and maybe he will go away

**OMGRandyJackson** · 03-28-13, 10:27 PM

How did the actual hand play out? It has nothing to do with your question, Im just curious, who shoved first etc.

Im guessing button shoves, SB calls, then you reshove?

And what were blinds?

**TheCentaur** · 03-29-13, 10:34 AM

Originally posted by OMGRandyJackson

How did the actual hand play out? It has nothing to do with your question, Im just curious, who shoved first etc.

Im guessing button shoves, SB calls, then you reshove?

And what were blinds?

Right button shoves, sb shoves all in, I call. Flop is A and 10s with club draw two pair holds up.

Blinds were 4/8k

**OMGRandyJackson** · 03-29-13, 04:24 PM

Why not fold?

**TheCentaur** · 03-29-13, 08:36 PM

Originally posted by OMGRandyJackson

Why not fold?

Yeah I know, may not have been the correct decision.

Based on the payout structure there wasn't a huge difference between the places. I felt it was my best chance to recover a chip lead to try to win or at least finish second.

I thought the situation was either what it was, two high card hands with the chip leader having the dominant high hand, or button had an ace and leader had a high pp, so I wanted the button to have to fade 4 outs for a set if he hit his ace.

You are right though, maybe should have folded

**daneblazer** · 03-30-13, 09:02 AM

Before the hand the 14k stack is going to place 3rd about 80% of the time. 77k places 2nd a little over half the time. AT is about a 5/25 dog to win the hand against both hands and 88 is like a 13/25 fave to beat AK. 88 is an overall underdog in the hand. Overpairs are in their range and hands 88 dominate probably are too esp the 14k stack, but there's probably more that hurt 88 than help and you have zero fold equity. The SS winning isn't going to happen very often...if you take anything out of this experience, in my opinion it's that folding here is the correct play. Haven't had my coffee yet so Im not in a math mood.

**TheCentaur** · 04-01-13, 07:40 AM

The problem isn't that the shortstack won, its that ss beat the bigstack, but the big stack still beat me. That's why this situation is so unusual

**bingley** · 04-01-13, 09:26 AM

position, stack, blinds, etc don't change the cards so why would it be so unusual?

**TheCentaur** · 04-01-13, 02:20 PM

Originally posted by bingley

position, stack, blinds, etc don't change the cards so why would it be so unusual?

stack size has a lot to do with it

The combination of stack sizes along with the cards they held made it an unusual way to get knocked out. I've played a good bit of poker and can't remember it happening.