The Seer's 2012 NCAAF & NFL thread

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  • Smoooookeyyyyy
    SBR High Roller
    • 10-06-12
    • 150

    #1051
    He just bet two units on it, how is going to persuade you not to bet the other way? If that isn't convincing enough.
    Comment
    • LawHog
      SBR Rookie
      • 01-18-12
      • 38

      #1052
      Originally posted by Smoooookeyyyyy
      He just bet two units on it, how is going to persuade you not to bet the other way? If that isn't convincing enough.
      Yes, I quoted The Seer's 2-unit play on Arkansas, and expressed my gratitude for his exemplary capping this season. Nobody expects any brilliance from a Tennessee fan, so I'll try to spell it out for you: I made the following bets against my own team this season:

      ULM +30 W
      Bama -21 W
      Rutgers +9.5 W
      A&M -13.5 W x 4 units
      Auburn -10 L

      The Seer (whom I respect and will tail all year) has bet Arkansas (my team) -17 this week, with 2 units. He also bet LSU -2.5 and wrote a paragraph about it in post #1045. I'm asking him to tell me a reason why my Hogs (who are terrible) will win by -17 against Kentucky.
      Comment
      • xcrazyaenoyx
        SBR Rookie
        • 09-12-12
        • 47

        #1053
        hey seers

        what you think about texas tech+4? i'm really liking it on my lock of this week. i been watching these line movements everyone still pounding and line still the same -3.5 sometime back to -4. let me know what you think . thanks
        Comment
        • Smutbucket
          SBR MVP
          • 03-14-08
          • 3996

          #1054
          LawHog, one reason I would stay away from this game, is that the oddsmakers have consistently over valued this arkansas team, more than anyone else in NCAAF so far this season, by an average of -18.8 pts a game.....the oddsmakers know this, and will adjust their lines accordingly, Ive looked into the numbers of this game, and dont see an edge, but based on this information alone, I see and edge for arkansas, but Im not the typea person to lay a bet based on something like that,
          Comment
          • The Seer
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 10-29-07
            • 10641

            #1055
            Originally posted by LawHog
            Seer, I'm a religious follower of your NCAA calls, and you deserve immense credit for making betting fun for many of us this year. I've made well over 10 units on your picks alone.

            I'm also an Arkansas graduate living in Fayetteville, and this is the worst and most rudderless Razorback team we have fielded in my 30 years of being a fan, and I struggle to believe we can beat Kentucky, much less by 17. I called the ULM cover earlier in this thread, and they beat us. Auburn is by leaps and bounds the worst and most hopeless team in the SEC, so that win last week means next to nothing. Can you convince me not to take Kentucky by +17, or even on the ML, at this point?
            No offense but I'm not here to convince anyone to pick anything. I just post what I bet & if I can help another poster or vice-versa then that is a bonus. By all means, if you feel you know what the team is gonna do then go with what you think. I've been right in their games the last 3 weeks and I think I've got a good read on them. I think having those two road games were good to get them away and winning the last one will help their confidence no matter what. Sometimes, winning is winning. I think these kids see they can somewhat salvage the season & will be welcomed back in front of the home crowd. Auburn is not a good team but they did beat Monroe. Ky's claim to fame this year is beating Kent. On a neutral field, I'll take Auburn over Kentucky. It's a 2 unit play for me though, nothing more.
            Comment
            • LawHog
              SBR Rookie
              • 01-18-12
              • 38

              #1056
              Originally posted by Smutbucket
              LawHog, one reason I would stay away from this game, is that the oddsmakers have consistently over valued this arkansas team, more than anyone else in NCAAF so far this season, by an average of -18.8 pts a game.....the oddsmakers know this, and will adjust their lines accordingly, Ive looked into the numbers of this game, and dont see an edge, but based on this information alone, I see and edge for arkansas, but Im not the typea person to lay a bet based on something like that,
              Fair enough, but I would guess that Seer isn't playing 2U on Ark based solely on prior overvalue, especially at -17. I think -7.5 would have been generous. My Razorbacks are adrift and leaderless in an SEC full of sharks, and we have only managed to beat lowly FCS Jacksonville State and bottom-feeder Auburn, whose coaches I wouldn't trust to manage an IHOP in Knoxville.
              Comment
              • The Seer
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 10-29-07
                • 10641

                #1057
                Originally posted by xcrazyaenoyx
                what you think about texas tech+4? i'm really liking it on my lock of this week. i been watching these line movements everyone still pounding and line still the same -3.5 sometime back to -4. let me know what you think . thanks
                I'm on them too. Wait til Saturday. The $ will be pouring in on WV then. You might get a better #. I think their defense rebounds this week. Two weeks back and forth to Texas for WV should be tough for them. Also, it's a sandwich game. WV has #6 Kst at home next week.
                Comment
                • LawHog
                  SBR Rookie
                  • 01-18-12
                  • 38

                  #1058
                  Originally posted by The Seer
                  No offense but I'm not here to convince anyone to pick anything. I just post what I bet & if I can help another poster or vice-versa then that is a bonus. By all means, if you feel you know what the team is gonna do then go with what you think. I've been right in their games the last 3 weeks and I think I've got a good read on them. I think having those two road games were good to get them away and winning the last one will help their confidence no matter what. Sometimes, winning is winning. I think these kids see they can somewhat salvage the season & will be welcomed back in front of the home crowd. Auburn is not a good team but they did beat Monroe. Ky's claim to fame this year is beating Kent. On a neutral field, I'll take Auburn over Kentucky. It's a 2 unit play for me though, nothing more.
                  Thanks, Seer. I only meant to ask you why take Ark -17, and I appreciate the response.
                  Last edited by LawHog; 10-10-12, 01:28 AM.
                  Comment
                  • The Seer
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 10-29-07
                    • 10641

                    #1059
                    Originally posted by LawHog
                    Thanks, Seer.
                    BTW, I actually think the line being 17 makes me think I'm right. They haven't been overvalued all year. They were 10 pt dogs last week. That was way too much.
                    I actually think they beat Kentucky by 4 tds.
                    Comment
                    • sneakerhead
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 07-14-10
                      • 7727

                      #1060
                      Seer what do you think about Bills on Sunday?
                      Comment
                      • Smutbucket
                        SBR MVP
                        • 03-14-08
                        • 3996

                        #1061
                        Originally posted by The Seer
                        BTW, I actually think the line being 17 makes me think I'm right. They haven't been overvalued all year. They were 10 pt dogs last week. That was way too much.
                        I actually think they beat Kentucky by 4 tds.
                        sorry I should have clarified. overvalued ON AVERAGE more than any team this year.....not counting jax state of course, they overvalued them the first 4 games by almost -30 pts each game....last weeks game was a prime example of vegas seeing this and over compensating for their mistakes.....it'll be intresting to see how accurate they are this week, but I wont be touching this game
                        Comment
                        • The Seer
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 10-29-07
                          • 10641

                          #1062
                          Originally posted by sneakerhead
                          Seer what do you think about Bills on Sunday?
                          As of now, I'm passing on it. It looks about right to me.
                          Comment
                          • xcrazyaenoyx
                            SBR Rookie
                            • 09-12-12
                            • 47

                            #1063
                            i think you forgot about me lolz. its ok i posted this earlier
                            what you think about texas tech+4? i'm really liking it on my lock of this week. i been watching these line movements everyone still pounding and line still the same -3.5 sometime back to -4. let me know what you think . thanks
                            Comment
                            • The Seer
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 10-29-07
                              • 10641

                              #1064
                              Originally posted by xcrazyaenoyx
                              i think you forgot about me lolz. its ok i posted this earlier
                              what you think about texas tech+4? i'm really liking it on my lock of this week. i been watching these line movements everyone still pounding and line still the same -3.5 sometime back to -4. let me know what you think . thanks
                              check post 1057, good night
                              Comment
                              • xcrazyaenoyx
                                SBR Rookie
                                • 09-12-12
                                • 47

                                #1065
                                oh woops lolz. thanks! looking forward to see your picks this week! keep up the good work!
                                Comment
                                • moodyt2
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 11-04-09
                                  • 448

                                  #1066
                                  Hey Seer . Is there any more games we need to grab early? or do we just need to wait right before the game?
                                  Comment
                                  • Romanov
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 10-08-10
                                    • 4137

                                    #1067
                                    Originally posted by moodyt2
                                    Hey Seer . Is there any more games we need to grab early? or do we just need to wait right before the game?
                                    He would fxcking post them.

                                    Leave the guy alone unless you want him to tire
                                    Comment
                                    • tusky26
                                      SBR Rookie
                                      • 11-27-07
                                      • 40

                                      #1068
                                      I too live in Arkansas and thought I could contribute to the discussion about them. I agree that they are "rudderless" since losing Petrino, but I disagree with them being the worst team in 30 years. These are the same players that were recruited by him, and the same team that were given high hopes before the firing. Same kids with the same ability. Having their leader ripped away from them right before the season starts took a helluva toll on their young hopes and I believe that is why they have turned in the season they have. I think the win last week brought their hearts back into why they came here, and righted the minds of the team. In no way am I saying that coach Smith is the right leader for this team. Heck, he's probably more worried about his bankruptcy than his team right now, but the players have seen what it feels like to win again.

                                      How this factors into hadicapping is not my area of expertise. I leave that up to The Seer. I just don't think this team is as bad as you led onto.
                                      Comment
                                      • Trackrec
                                        SBR Rookie
                                        • 09-06-12
                                        • 46

                                        #1069
                                        Originally posted by moodyt2
                                        Hey Seer . Is there any more games we need to grab early? or do we just need to wait right before the game?
                                        You may want to read about the goose that laid the golden egg. There's a great moral to the story.
                                        Comment
                                        • Smoooookeyyyyy
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 10-06-12
                                          • 150

                                          #1070
                                          Sometimes, reading is the best skill that you can learn.
                                          Comment
                                          • moodyt2
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 11-04-09
                                            • 448

                                            #1071
                                            Originally posted by Trackrec
                                            You may want to read about the goose that laid the golden egg. There's a great moral to the story.
                                            I have no idea what your talking about. I simply asked if there are any lines other than LSU & Arkansas that Seer may go ahead and lock in. What is wrong with asking that?
                                            Comment
                                            • therocket
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 01-08-12
                                              • 869

                                              #1072
                                              Originally posted by moodyt2
                                              Hey Seer . Is there any more games we need to grab early? or do we just need to wait right before the game?
                                              Patience grasshopper.
                                              Comment
                                              • moodyt2
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 11-04-09
                                                • 448

                                                #1073
                                                Originally posted by therocket
                                                Patience grasshopper.
                                                I'm patient.
                                                Comment
                                                • canepole
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 02-12-10
                                                  • 973

                                                  #1074
                                                  Thanks seer Read all ypur picks and respect your vast knowledge
                                                  Comment
                                                  • jihadvillager
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 11-25-11
                                                    • 2134

                                                    #1075
                                                    Originally posted by The Seer
                                                    for Sat:

                                                    Arkansas -17 -110 2 units
                                                    LSU -2 1/2 -110 2 units
                                                    Arkansas moved to -18 already
                                                    LSU is at -3 on a lot of books now.

                                                    Good thing we locked early
                                                    Comment
                                                    • hurricane1091
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 10-01-12
                                                      • 713

                                                      #1076
                                                      Anything for tonight?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • The Seer
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 10-29-07
                                                        • 10641

                                                        #1077
                                                        Originally posted by moodyt2
                                                        Hey Seer . Is there any more games we need to grab early? or do we just need to wait right before the game?
                                                        I would have posted them at the time. I post them right when I bet them. There are just so many games to go over that sometimes when I get all of my info together & I decide on one it has already moved.
                                                        Originally posted by Trackrec

                                                        You may want to read about the goose that laid the golden egg. There's a great moral to the story.

                                                        Originally posted by jihadvillager

                                                        Arkansas moved to -18 already
                                                        LSU is at -3 on a lot of books now.

                                                        Good thing we locked early
                                                        yes it is
                                                        Comment
                                                        • freeVICK
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 01-21-08
                                                          • 7114

                                                          #1078
                                                          Any early leans for Pitt/tenn game tonight?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • The Seer
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 10-29-07
                                                            • 10641

                                                            #1079
                                                            So far for tonight:
                                                            Troy +1 1/2 -110 1 unit
                                                            Going with my lean from earlier in the week: WK has been a covering machine but they are the road fave in the Thursday night game against a Troy team that will be back home after two road wins.
                                                            Tulsa -17-110 2 units
                                                            I think this years game will resemble last year's blowout that Tulsa won by 29. We have one of the better offenses in the country facing the #94 defense. Tulsa should rush for over 250 yds.

                                                            still finishing up on the other 2 games
                                                            Comment
                                                            • martino maserati
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 11-13-10
                                                              • 112

                                                              #1080
                                                              whats up seer thanks for everything you got going here.... already on pitt +4 under 52.5 and az st -12 in a teaser how do you think that sounds buddy?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Romanov
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 10-08-10
                                                                • 4137

                                                                #1081
                                                                I can't believe people are continually using this as an advice column. Seer has been an ATM and you guys aren't satisfied. A few years ago my ncaab/nba thread gained a little steam with the community and people pming me & asking shit in my thread all the time tired me out from the forum. I can't speak for seer, but i wouldn't run the risk of losing him just for a weekend play request. He is on this site just for fun, you aren't paying him, and your relentless "hey is this a good play" posts are clogging the goldmine this thread is.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Pistol_Peter
                                                                  SBR Hustler
                                                                  • 09-23-12
                                                                  • 87

                                                                  #1082
                                                                  Originally posted by The Seer
                                                                  So far for tonight:
                                                                  Troy +1 1/2 -110 1 unit
                                                                  Going with my lean from earlier in the week: WK has been a covering machine but they are the road fave in the Thursday night game against a Troy team that will be back home after two road wins.
                                                                  Tulsa -17-110 2 units
                                                                  I think this years game will resemble last year's blowout that Tulsa won by 29. We have one of the better offenses in the country facing the #94 defense. Tulsa should rush for over 250 yds.

                                                                  still finishing up on the other 2 games
                                                                  I'm surprised you didn't just go for the money line for Troy.
                                                                  Thanks for the picks btw, BOL!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Louisvillekid1
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 10-17-07
                                                                    • 52143

                                                                    #1083
                                                                    Seer good luck tonight, pal!

                                                                    I'm on Pitt/Tenn u 43.5 & Tulsa -9.5 1st half...

                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • martino maserati
                                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                                      • 11-13-10
                                                                      • 112

                                                                      #1084
                                                                      nice play louisville bol
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Lazyboy311
                                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                                        • 05-04-10
                                                                        • 409

                                                                        #1085
                                                                        Originally posted by The Seer
                                                                        So far for tonight:
                                                                        Troy +1 1/2 -110 1 unit
                                                                        Going with my lean from earlier in the week: WK has been a covering machine but they are the road fave in the Thursday night game against a Troy team that will be back home after two road wins.
                                                                        C'mon Man!!! Gotta roll w/my toppers here. Only two games we have lost in over a year are at (then) #1 LSU and #1 Alabama. Coach Taggert is just like Charlie Sheen...all he cares abt is WINNING. Haha BOL regardless

                                                                        You still da man!!
                                                                        Comment
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