49ers will knock off the Saints (Write-up inside)

[DA_MOSS]

You should take the Alternative Spread then. While you're throwing down that extra $550 why don't you throw SBR a bone and become a Pro? I mean whats $200.

I'll become a pro one of these days..

[suicidekings]

Hey man.. I lean your way very strong.. out of curiosity, how many units will you have on the saints this weekend?

I have a future on the Saints to win the Superbowl at (+1500) x2.5 already. I'm not sure yet how much I'll wager on this game. I think -3 is worth a smallish play, but I'll likely wait and see what becomes available in live betting. Unless Brees puts the ball in the endzone in the first 1-2 drives, there should be better value later as the -3 is currently (-135) at Pinny. If I can get a Saints ML in the -140 range or better (likely if the Niners put up a FG early), it would be worth putting ~5u on it, IMO.

I really want to see what approach Harbaugh takes before I bet. I think Smith is going to challenge the Saints secondary early.

[PAULYPOKER]

What offense did the 49ers stop this year even close to Saints caliber?

[millflavor]

weather will be record breaking marvelous tomorrow... saints will feel like they're in a dome

[8ArIvd5]

Record-breaking marvelous means unpredictable gusts without an overcast.

[bigsmitty]

What offense did the 49ers stop this year even close to Saints caliber?

I respect your opinion Pauly so just to answer your question: PIT/NYG/CIN. I really don't think NO has had that much higher quality of opp (DET/NYG/ATL-maybe their close loss to GB to start the season?). Just saying-all the best in your wager friend. Cheers

[lovetobet]

In response to Millflavor and the dome comment.

I live in Nor Cal and have lived here my whole life and we have had some beautiful weather lately, I even have a little tan going right now but I guarantee the Saints won't feel like they are in a Dome tomorrow. Maybe the temperature on their skin will feel that way but that's not as important as the other key factor in regard to temperature/weather impacts, guess what that is?

Let me sidetrack and talk about trivia for a minute. It is a common misconception that there are 2 NFL stadiums in the NFL that are below sea level, guess which stadiums they are?? Both Bay Area Stadiums; the Oakland Coliseum and Candlestick Park, this however is not accurate the Oakland Coliseum is below sea level (approximately 21ft.) but Candlestick Park is actually above sea level but by only 14 feet and for anyone who’s ever been there, the water is very, very close to the stadium.

OK, so back on topic. Both of these stadiums have a history for having a slick surface and sometimes a little more than just slick. Oakland has a more distinct history for this issue but I think some of this is because Oakland is actually BELOW sea level and part of this is because of the types of offenses/defenses these organizations have had through the years and the way it would typically have benefitted Oakland’s teams more than SF’s.

<O</OSo I’m sure it’s no mystery where I’m going with any of this at this point of my ESSAY.

<O</OWhat type of track do you think we are going to be looking at tomorrow on a 65 degree day with no rain in recent memory and the high flying Saints offense coming to town against a serious 9er D?? A nice super dry slightly spongy perfect turf?? Or is Willie D the 9er grounds keeper looking forward to his next pay check because he just booked the most time and a half overtime, working nights on the sprinkler crew as he ever has with his history with the 9ers???? <O</OI’ll let you educated cappers make the call on this one but I know where my money is.

I'm actually having a harder time figuring out who I think is going to win this game, there are so many compelling arguments both ways (some of which have been discussed on this thread), what I can’t figure out is why more people aren’t talking about the O/U, it seems to me this is where the value is. I will say all things considered: 9ers D, Saints O, Saints O on the road, Saints on the road period, matchup issues for both teams, etc. etc. I think the trump card will be: Saints have been here before their players are SB winners, playoff winners and have had to play these types of games. 9ers players, coaches and basically the whole team have not played in this spot before and I really think that will be the intangible that pushes the Saints over for a win. This however is a small play as I wouldn't be shocked if the 9ers figure out a way to win or keep it very close.

<O</OGood luck gentlemen, hope some of these facts/data help other people.<O</O

[No coincidences]

I like the under, but just can't seem to pull the trigger on taking the home dog here t-wizz. Hope you're right, but Alex Smith is blocking me.

[lovetobet]

Record-breaking marvelous means unpredictable gusts without an overcast.

What gusts, the wind isn't supposed to be over 5 mph tomorrow?

[No coincidences]

What happened to this t-wizz?

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-betting/1504603-7-reasons-why-niners-will-defeat-saints-advance-nfc-championship-p2.html

Niners have a chance but I think Saints will find a way to pull it out. I won't mess around with the ML +170 thing but +3.5 could be good.

[Speedy88]

In my opinion that is a pretty lame write up. Your basing an entire football game off of one factor (saints playing outdoors). I could make a 3 paragraph write up about how the Saints will win because yada yada yada (9ers have zero playoff experience, alex smith has never been in the playoffs, 49ers Oline struggles with blitz pickup, etc.).

You can't base a game on one factor.
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[McBa1n]

Best write - up i've seen on SBR probably EVER (of which I didn't do). Well done, t-wizzle.
Firstly, I RARELY make plays in the playoffs. It's too uncertain. The later they get, the more home field means shitall.
The Saints have struggled on grass and yet, they haven't faced a D like the 9rs deploy. The Saints D should be able to EASILY stop the 9rs O, they are f'n dogshite, but built for this time of year, especially at home. There's NO way the 9rs can win kicking field goals, as they've done all year.

That all said, this is what is hard to say, the Saints are shit-hot. They're rolling like no other offense I've ever seen, outside of ohhhh I don't know, GB, this year. Compare the picks Brees throws vs Rodgers. I really don't like saying this, but Brees makes more bad plays than Rodgers.

This game is tough to cap - but I think the line is BULLSHITE. 9rs +3 +juice is a joke... The 'value' is ALL on the Saints, and I mean bigtime, they should be favored by a TD, at least. I don't know who will win this game, I really don't.
It's impossible to stop a team as hot as the Saints right now, though... Just like GB was last year. In the playoffs, you ride the hot hand. I'm really interested to see the outcome of this game, as I'm certain the Giants beat GB.

Dunno, stats and bad turnovers do not overcome a FANTASTIC D. I really think because Alex Smith is about the worst QB this side of Tebow I've seen in a LONG time that's still staring in the league. Smith is utter shite. He's horrible. He should be flipping burgers. Heck, you can find ANYONE that runs that offense and can toss a football on a 3 step drop. Alex Smith is crap - he's always been. The guy can't throw the ball 20-30 yards away from him with any accuracy. This is why I question the line. It's why I wonder wtf.

Saints are an AMAZING value play right now on the ML. I have an extra value meal to be named later on the game (I have 9rs +3), which could be HUGE, but I still think you can't stop the hot hand. That's how the NFL works. Even though Brees has played at an exceptional level statistically, that offense if VERY flawed and arrogant, that's going to be fun to watch. It's not going to be like watching in the Superdome. I just don't think the 9rs can compete, and I'll pay off my wager, but dang, that D, on grass, at home? I like it.

I hate them, but goooo 9rs in spite of a HORRIBLE line.

[Goat Milk]

damn I'm against you here. i really think niners are two one-dimension to win. it's way tougher to play at seattle than at sf. that stanford coach in not a good coach bro

[hanco21]

nice write up

Been thinking about this game a lot this week and now I'm really starting to feel like San Fran will pull off the upset. Let's face it: The Saints are a different team when they aren't playing indoors especially in New Orleans. Who is the best defense the Saints played all year? Houston in Week 3? New Orleans has run all over the dreck defenses of the league and they've been very fortunate to have played 11 games indoors this season.

Let's look at the 5 outdoor games:

Week 1 @ Green Bay: L 42-34 - Game really wasn't as close as people like to say. Packers led by double digits for practically the entire game. Not putting too much stock in this game though as it was the NFL Opener.

Week 4 @ Jacksonville: W 23-10 - Saints put up 2 early tds and then struggled to score from that point on as they kicked 3 second half field goals. Still put up a ton of total yardage but this game was more of a struggle than it should have been against a Jags team with Gabbert in only his second career start.

Week 5 @ Carolina: W 30-27 - Game-winning drive by Brees as they scored in the final minute. Another game with early success but a struggle to score in the second half with no tds until the final drive.

Week 6 @ Tampa Bay: L 26-20 - 3 interceptions for Brees in this one. For fukk sake, this was Tampa Bay's final win of the season.

Week 14 @ Tennessee: W 22-17 - Saints were unable to get those explosive plays we're used to seeing from them. Brees was forced to check down for most of the game but was still efficient. Game was 10-9 in favor of the Titans heading into the fourth. New Orleans was fortunate to come away with the victory as Locker took a sack at the Saints 5 yard line as time expired.


What I take from these 5 games is this: The Saints are still a good team but you're kidding yourself if you think they are the same team on the road outdoors. When you take into consideration the different playing surface and the noise factor which limits Brees' ability to make changes at the line of scrimmage, they just aren't quite the same offense.

What's most important however is that this is the first time New Orleans has faced a legit defense on the road all year. And by legit defense, I mean the best defense in the NFL. I fully expect the 49ers to put pressure in the face of Brees who is only 6 feet tall. The linebackers are fast and physical and it will be much more difficult to use Sproles out of the backfield and Jimmy Graham as well. The Saints love to use play action but the 49ers don't need help from their safeties to stop the run so they can stay at home and limit the deep passes down the middle of the field.

San Francisco will put pressure on Brees and he will be forced into making difficult throws. It's impossible to completely stop the Saints offense but I think the 49ers will do a hell of a job and will make enough plays on offense to pull off the upset. I can't believe I'm saying this but Alex Smith has been pretty damn clutch this year and made some money throws under pressure late in games. They don't need him to sling it around the field but he has proven that he can go out there and win a game.

I'll decide by Saturday how much I'm putting on this game. 49ers +3.5 will surely be a play as will the ML +whatever.


49ers 20
Saints 17

[TheMoneyShot]

Brees is a night and day QB from Indoor to Grass. Factor in SF venue... factor in SF D. Woah... Lights Out Gorilla Radio.

[k13]

Lang is on the Niners.

[a4u2fear]

The Saints pretty much dominated that Tennessee game start to finish but couldn't get TDs. That game was more of a dominating game than the final score showed.

[warriorfan707]

Best write - up i've seen on SBR probably EVER (of which I didn't do). Well done, t-wizzle.
Firstly, I RARELY make plays in the playoffs. It's too uncertain. The later they get, the more home field means shitall.
The Saints have struggled on grass and yet, they haven't faced a D like the 9rs deploy. The Saints D should be able to EASILY stop the 9rs O, they are f'n dogshite, but built for this time of year, especially at home. There's NO way the 9rs can win kicking field goals, as they've done all year.

That all said, this is what is hard to say, the Saints are shit-hot. They're rolling like no other offense I've ever seen, outside of ohhhh I don't know, GB, this year. Compare the picks Brees throws vs Rodgers. I really don't like saying this, but Brees makes more bad plays than Rodgers.

This game is tough to cap - but I think the line is BULLSHITE. 9rs +3 +juice is a joke... The 'value' is ALL on the Saints, and I mean bigtime, they should be favored by a TD, at least. I don't know who will win this game, I really don't.
It's impossible to stop a team as hot as the Saints right now, though... Just like GB was last year. In the playoffs, you ride the hot hand. I'm really interested to see the outcome of this game, as I'm certain the Giants beat GB.

Dunno, stats and bad turnovers do not overcome a FANTASTIC D. I really think because Alex Smith is about the worst QB this side of Tebow I've seen in a LONG time that's still staring in the league. Smith is utter shite. He's horrible. He should be flipping burgers. Heck, you can find ANYONE that runs that offense and can toss a football on a 3 step drop. Alex Smith is crap - he's always been. The guy can't throw the ball 20-30 yards away from him with any accuracy. This is why I question the line. It's why I wonder wtf.

Saints are an AMAZING value play right now on the ML. I have an extra value meal to be named later on the game (I have 9rs +3), which could be HUGE, but I still think you can't stop the hot hand. That's how the NFL works. Even though Brees has played at an exceptional level statistically, that offense if VERY flawed and arrogant, that's going to be fun to watch. It's not going to be like watching in the Superdome. I just don't think the 9rs can compete, and I'll pay off my wager, but dang, that D, on grass, at home? I like it.

I hate them, but goooo 9rs in spite of a HORRIBLE line.

I had to stop and laugh about 4 different times while reading your post. If you really believe some of this asinine nonsense you spewed here, then God help you.

All I can say.

[warriorfan707]

Lang is on the Niners.

[sjm5122]

Mcwinsey is also claiming he will be on the niners. Any lean I had toward the niners is long gone.

[t-wizzle]

What happened to this t-wizz?

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-betting/1504603-7-reasons-why-niners-will-defeat-saints-advance-nfc-championship-p2.html

Read first sentence of this thread.

[t-wizzle]

damn I'm against you here. i really think niners are two one-dimension to win. it's way tougher to play at seattle than at sf. that stanford coach in not a good coach bro

Why is he not a good coach?

[MidgetTossers]

damn I'm against you here. i really think niners are two one-dimension to win. it's way tougher to play at seattle than at sf. that stanford coach in not a good coach bro

goat this is one of the dumbest things u have ever wrote..u have bet against the niners all year..how has that worked out for you?..stick to basketball bro

[lakerboy]

Gl bro. I'm happy with under 47.5

[t-wizzle]

Gl bro. I'm happy with under 47.5

Thanks pal we'll see what happens. I don't like betting totals but obviously by the score i predicted i think your under is great.

[Ninersnut]

The NFL has representatives at all stadiums to monitor the field. So any talk of this "watering down" the field is bullshit.

[t-wizzle]

The NFL has representatives at all stadiums to monitor the field. So any talk of this "watering down" the field is bullshit.

Lol the field will not be watered down. The difference is that it's not a fast track like the Superdome.

[nmodi]

dont mix regular game with playoff dude!!!!!

[jihadvillager]

My lines hit 4 briefly last night now back to juiced +3.5 -125 now- total dropped a point to 46.5 as well

[lovetobet]

The NFL has representatives at all stadiums to monitor the field. So any talk of this "watering down" the field is bullshit.

Lol the field will not be watered down. The difference is that it's not a fast track like the Superdome.

I'll disagree, the field will be watered down, at least some. Plus like I said this field is slick anyway because of it's location to the bay.

No offense ninersnut but you don't think the groundkeepers couldn't get some extra water on that field even with an NFL rep there?? Yeah right, I'm sure he's sleeping their 24/7. If Harbaugh and those guys want it wetter they will have it that way. I'm not saying sloppy, I don't think that's what the Niners want, just a little looser. Plus I forgot to mention last night I see this being more towards the sidelines and less in the middle, the 9ers want their front 7 to have good footing.

On top of "watering or not watering down" high tide will be at approximately half time or late in the first half (3:12 PM & almost 5ft high tide). I have been going to this field since the early 70's this WILL have an effect on this field. I guarantee it, whether it has a major/minor/any effect, not sure we'll see but high tides affect this field.

[IllyPhilly[DOC]]

A lot has been said about the 49ers difficulties scoring in the red zone, so here is another statistic to consider: the Saints have only a 31.8% red zone efficiency rating when playing outdoors (and that percentage came against defenses less talented than the 49ers).

I like this. Keep it coming

[Louisvillekid1]

I got SF 27 24 and I don't even consider it an upset...

[Andrewsurf]

that stanford coach in not a good coach bro

What exactly do you base this on? This might be one of the dumbest things I've read on SBR. Troll?

[DJ Dana]

I have no idea how or even if I bet this game but one stat stands out to me from the season:

The Niners allowed 1 rushing TD all year long. And it was in week 17 against Beast Mode. That really tells you how great their front seven is on that team. Should be a great game today any way you look at it.

[thebestthereis]

^^^^^

The Stanford coach lost to Oklahoma State because he thought his field goal kicker who had shit stains in his pants would kick a 40yd field goal with the game on the line instead of having Luck, the number 1 nfl prospect, continue to carve up the defense. That's the guy who is not a good coach, more like clueless.