49ers will knock off the Saints (Write-up inside)

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  • t-wizzle
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 12-18-09
    • 38099

    #1
    49ers will knock off the Saints (Write-up inside)
    Been thinking about this game a lot this week and now I'm really starting to feel like San Fran will pull off the upset. Let's face it: The Saints are a different team when they aren't playing indoors especially in New Orleans. Who is the best defense the Saints played all year? Houston in Week 3? New Orleans has run all over the dreck defenses of the league and they've been very fortunate to have played 11 games indoors this season.

    Let's look at the 5 outdoor games:

    Week 1 @ Green Bay: L 42-34 - Game really wasn't as close as people like to say. Packers led by double digits for practically the entire game. Not putting too much stock in this game though as it was the NFL Opener.

    Week 4 @ Jacksonville: W 23-10 - Saints put up 2 early tds and then struggled to score from that point on as they kicked 3 second half field goals. Still put up a ton of total yardage but this game was more of a struggle than it should have been against a Jags team with Gabbert in only his second career start.

    Week 5 @ Carolina: W 30-27 - Game-winning drive by Brees as they scored in the final minute. Another game with early success but a struggle to score in the second half with no tds until the final drive.

    Week 6 @ Tampa Bay: L 26-20 - 3 interceptions for Brees in this one. For fukk sake, this was Tampa Bay's final win of the season.

    Week 14 @ Tennessee: W 22-17 - Saints were unable to get those explosive plays we're used to seeing from them. Brees was forced to check down for most of the game but was still efficient. Game was 10-9 in favor of the Titans heading into the fourth. New Orleans was fortunate to come away with the victory as Locker took a sack at the Saints 5 yard line as time expired.


    What I take from these 5 games is this: The Saints are still a good team but you're kidding yourself if you think they are the same team on the road outdoors. When you take into consideration the different playing surface and the noise factor which limits Brees' ability to make changes at the line of scrimmage, they just aren't quite the same offense.

    What's most important however is that this is the first time New Orleans has faced a legit defense on the road all year. And by legit defense, I mean the best defense in the NFL. I fully expect the 49ers to put pressure in the face of Brees who is only 6 feet tall. The linebackers are fast and physical and it will be much more difficult to use Sproles out of the backfield and Jimmy Graham as well. The Saints love to use play action but the 49ers don't need help from their safeties to stop the run so they can stay at home and limit the deep passes down the middle of the field.

    San Francisco will put pressure on Brees and he will be forced into making difficult throws. It's impossible to completely stop the Saints offense but I think the 49ers will do a hell of a job and will make enough plays on offense to pull off the upset. I can't believe I'm saying this but Alex Smith has been pretty damn clutch this year and made some money throws under pressure late in games. They don't need him to sling it around the field but he has proven that he can go out there and win a game.

    I'll decide by Saturday how much I'm putting on this game. 49ers +3.5 will surely be a play as will the ML +whatever.


    49ers 20
    Saints 17
  • warriorfan707
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 03-29-08
    • 13698

    #2
    Comment
    • BIGDAY
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 02-17-10
      • 48245

      #3
      Tough game. I think it will be hard to keep NO under 20 Pts. SF needs to put up 24 Pts to win IMO.

      I will most likely pass or play the under 47for the total.
      Comment
      • warriorfan707
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 03-29-08
        • 13698

        #4
        ANyone who likes the Niners to win on Saturday is a friend of mine.
        Comment
        • Dad
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 11-26-08
          • 23245

          #5
          Nice write up t-wizzle.
          Comment
          • t-wizzle
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 12-18-09
            • 38099

            #6
            Originally posted by Dad
            Nice write up t-wizzle.
            Thanks Dad. If it wins, would you mind posting a pic of a nice babe in celebration?
            Comment
            • warriorfan707
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 03-29-08
              • 13698

              #7
              Pretty sure he'll be doing that anyway
              Comment
              • Chimneyfish
                SBR MVP
                • 09-30-10
                • 1217

                #8
                A lot has been said about the 49ers difficulties scoring in the red zone, so here is another statistic to consider: the Saints have only a 31.8% red zone efficiency rating when playing outdoors (and that percentage came against defenses less talented than the 49ers).
                Comment
                • Ninersnut
                  SBR MVP
                  • 05-20-10
                  • 3730

                  #9
                  This game more than any other on the board is having numbers crunched. I hate ESPN but Mike Sando does a helluva job over there on the NFCW Blog. He has some in depth stats and situation stats for anyone who plans on betting on this game should check out.
                  Comment
                  • SEAHAWKHARRY
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 11-29-07
                    • 26068

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Ninersnut
                    This game more than any other on the board is having numbers crunched. I hate ESPN but Mike Sando does a helluva job over there on the NFCW Blog. He has some in depth stats and situation stats for anyone who plans on betting on this game should check out.


                    Is he saying SF wins???
                    Comment
                    • Ninersnut
                      SBR MVP
                      • 05-20-10
                      • 3730

                      #11
                      Originally posted by SEAHAWKHARRY



                      Is he saying SF wins???
                      No, he's actually a Hawk fan I believe. There is some NFCW bias but not much. More or less check out his articles where he breaks down the numbers.
                      Comment
                      • k13
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 07-16-10
                        • 18104

                        #12
                        <table id="tblFootballPropsGame" class="lines" width="auto" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="linesRowBot" valign="top"><td> </td><td>1210 San Francisco 49ers (Prop)</td><td><input id="editx" name="S2_82" size="4" maxlength="5"> -42½ +30000
                        </td><td>
                        </td></tr></tbody></table>
                        Comment
                        • PAULYPOKER
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 12-06-08
                          • 36581

                          #13
                          49ers will knock off the Saints (Write-up inside)











                          No they won't,look I don't even need a write up.................
                          Comment
                          • Ninersnut
                            SBR MVP
                            • 05-20-10
                            • 3730

                            #14
                            K13 that is a ridiculous Prop. They haven't scored 43 all year have they? Maybe against the Bucs?
                            Comment
                            • PAULYPOKER
                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                              • 12-06-08
                              • 36581

                              #15
                              Just like the Steelers make me blind,the 9ers make you homers blind.............
                              Comment
                              • Ninersnut
                                SBR MVP
                                • 05-20-10
                                • 3730

                                #16
                                You're just salty after last week. Saint's defense is terrible hence why they need to score 40 points to win each week. Niners will be able to get a few points on them.
                                Comment
                                • PAULYPOKER
                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                  • 12-06-08
                                  • 36581

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Ninersnut
                                  You're just salty after last week. Saint's defense is terrible hence why they need to score 40 points to win each week. Niners will be able to get a few points on them.
                                  yes they will but no more than 20 however the 9ers d will not be able to keep Breeze the best QB of the year along with a great running game under 20.............
                                  Comment
                                  • Mr Handicapable
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 09-23-07
                                    • 6067

                                    #18
                                    49ers faced two good QBs (leaving out a lame Roethlisburger) at home this year....Romo & Eli Manning.

                                    Romo 345/2 tds/No picks/27 points
                                    Eli 311 yds/2 tds/2 picks/20 points

                                    Thats not elite shutdown defense in my book. The best prediction for future behavior is past results. Brees throws the ball for 300 and atleast a couple scores while Akers kicks field goals. Saints 27-16
                                    Comment
                                    • Ninersnut
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 05-20-10
                                      • 3730

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by PAULYPOKER
                                      yes they will but no more than 20 however the 9ers d will not be able to keep Breeze the best QB of the year along with a great running game under 20.............
                                      Aaron Rodgers is playing the Giants FYI. The 49ers have been terrible against the run this year so you might have a point
                                      Comment
                                      • Chimneyfish
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 09-30-10
                                        • 1217

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Ninersnut
                                        The 49ers have been terrible against the run this year so you might have a point
                                        Yeah I know. When the 49ers made it all the way to the second to last week of season without giving up a single rushing touchdown all year, commentators were only calling them "probably one of the best run defenses in NFL history." The fact that they didn't say "definitely the best run defense ever" proves the team is weak and will probably give up tons of yards on Saturday.
                                        Comment
                                        • k13
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 07-16-10
                                          • 18104

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Mr Handicapable
                                          49ers faced two good QBs (leaving out a lame Roethlisburger) at home this year....Romo & Eli Manning.

                                          Romo 345/2 tds/No picks/27 points
                                          Eli 311 yds/2 tds/2 picks/20 points

                                          Thats not elite shutdown defense in my book. The best prediction for future behavior is past results. Brees throws the ball for 300 and atleast a couple scores while Akers kicks field goals. Saints 27-16
                                          You don't take into account that they were both trailing by double digits so obviously passing yards will be high.

                                          If past results are the best predictions, Brees only had 254 yards passing last year against a weaker Niners D in a game they barely won. Alex Smith 275 yards passing yards and he sucks, tells you how yards are overrated.

                                          What's the lowest TeamTotal have the Saints had so far this year, anyone know?
                                          Comment
                                          • Chimneyfish
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 09-30-10
                                            • 1217

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by k13
                                            What's the lowest TeamTotal have the Saints had so far this year, anyone know?
                                            Their lowest total yards? It was 283 in their loss to the Rams.
                                            Comment
                                            • PAULYPOKER
                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                              • 12-06-08
                                              • 36581

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Ninersnut
                                              Aaron Rodgers is playing the Giants FYI. The 49ers have been terrible against the run this year so you might have a point
                                              Saints have so many weapons on offense,this will force the 9ers to play bend but don't BREAK (if they're lucky) type Defense thus opening up the run or what ever breeze chooses to do.............
                                              Comment
                                              • k13
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 07-16-10
                                                • 18104

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by Chimneyfish
                                                Their lowest total yards? It was 283 in their loss to the Rams.
                                                No. The line for their TT for points.

                                                For this game it's 25.5
                                                Comment
                                                • Mr Handicapable
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 09-23-07
                                                  • 6067

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by k13
                                                  You don't take into account that they were both trailing by double digits so obviously passing yards will be high.

                                                  If past results are the best predictions, Brees only had 254 yards passing last year against a weaker Niners D in a game they barely won. Alex Smith 275 yards passing yards and he sucks, tells you how yards are overrated.

                                                  What's the lowest TeamTotal have the Saints had so far this year, anyone know?

                                                  No Sproles last year although you are correct that yardage by itself doesn't mean much. Who knows....all you 49er homers have me half-convinced my $$ is gone now...lol!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • PAULYPOKER
                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                    • 12-06-08
                                                    • 36581

                                                    #26
                                                    Here is one more important factor,the 9ers are a virgin to the playoffs while the Saints are veterans with a Superbowl under their belt from only 2 years ago.........
                                                    Comment
                                                    • bachngocduong
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 03-17-06
                                                      • 1826

                                                      #27
                                                      1185 New Orleans Saints -36½ +4175
                                                      Saints more then 50
                                                      49ers 6 or 9 if they fk lucky 13
                                                      Comment
                                                      • PAULYPOKER
                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                        • 12-06-08
                                                        • 36581

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by bachngocduong
                                                        1185 New Orleans Saints -36½ +4175 Saints more then 50 49ers 6 or 9 if they fk lucky 13
                                                        I would say more like Saints 23 9ers 16
                                                        Comment
                                                        • onacloud
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 10-14-10
                                                          • 5360

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by k13

                                                          No. The line for their TT for points.

                                                          For this game it's 25.5
                                                          they only scored 20 against the tampa on the road
                                                          Comment
                                                          • k13
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 07-16-10
                                                            • 18104

                                                            #30
                                                            If you like Saints pick the Saints.
                                                            If you like Niners pick the Niners.

                                                            Don't let someone change your mind, go down with what you believe.

                                                            Learn lesson after.

                                                            I'd wait till game time to see where this line goes. Right now it looks too much of a coin flip.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • nj1035
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 11-19-09
                                                              • 902

                                                              #31
                                                              This day and age, great QB beats great defense. Blame it on the new rules, or whatever you want. But I'll take Brees here. Wouldn't be shocked to see a SF win though.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Chimneyfish
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 09-30-10
                                                                • 1217

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by PAULYPOKER
                                                                Here is one more important factor,the 9ers are a virgin to the playoffs while the Saints are veterans with a Superbowl under their belt from only 2 years ago.........
                                                                This Saints team has also never won a playoff game on the road, let alone to a team coming off a bye.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • t-wizzle
                                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                  • 12-18-09
                                                                  • 38099

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by PAULYPOKER
                                                                  Here is one more important factor,the 9ers are a virgin to the playoffs while the Saints are veterans with a Superbowl under their belt from only 2 years ago.........
                                                                  Seahawks were "virgins" last year when they knocked off the almighty saints. So we're the broncos when they knocked off the steelers. So we're the jets when they made it to the afc championship 2 years ago. Do i need to keep going on?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • sportfan
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 12-22-09
                                                                    • 10111

                                                                    #34
                                                                    SF ML They win Outright
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • bigsmitty
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 04-12-10
                                                                      • 3026

                                                                      #35
                                                                      I like SF here-among other stats SF has a great turnover differential. Cheers
                                                                      Comment
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