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but the most any person could bet was 100, though they could have hit it 4 times every time it movedComment -
It should be evident from 99% of the posts on here, that just about nobody does this for a living. Outside of Ganch and a handful of other sharp guys everyone is just recreational. I am sure Justin is one of those guys....I can assure you he isn't involved in organized politics
Most guys on here jizz their pants about the idea of betting on sports for a living. Apparently all those propaganda campaigns that sportsbooks use with out of shape guys in Hawaiin shirts smoking cuban cigars and wearing jewlery and driving a convertable and having multiple beautiful women with hoards of cash in their pockets to spend is to get people to think that is what life is like for a pro gambler. Outside of the out of shape part, none of it is true at all.Comment -
slick,
I really like your arguments and completely agree with what you are saying. It's pretty funny when you think about people who think they are making a living betting. When you considered getting out of gambling and betting altogether, I think it was probably one of the smartest things I've ever read in a sports forum, much less an interesting sports betting forum such as this one! Because you are actually facing reality and coming to grips with the fact that how many heartbreak losses in the ninth and meaningless bucket/touchdown/goals teeter on the brink of losing or winning in the gambling world. The way I see it anyone who is making a living off betting and gambling either has a decent amount of money in the first place or they are just enjoying trying to pull in a median income every year. First consider the fact they are going to need to have luck many times, can have a decent record at handicapping games, and lets not forget to win big you got to bet big and that incurs the possibility of losing BIG. Plus if they are gambling as more than 50% of their living, then they must be doing some booking as well because of the old adage "I've never heard of a bookie losing"
Now these stats, trends, systems, and all the hours of research cannot guarantee anything!!! Is it possible and really worth trying to to hit between 60-70% winners consistently each sports season depending what leagues you are betting? Sure it is fun and adds to the interest in a meaningless game or further excitement in a playoff game, but in a sense you are additionally risking trying to guarantee that you will earn a consistent yearly income. That just is not the case as winning percentages fluctuate somewhat (at least) yearly among bettors! Nevertheless gamblers do not care and every day provides another opportunity to win and it is enticing no doubt. For leisure and maybe to earn a few bucks at the end of the season sure! But it is insanity (and of course now we get into the sickness and addiction) of enjoying the rush and the stress and emotions that sports "investing" like the stock market plays with gamblers. They have no control of the outcome! Who's on the take? Players, refs/umps, corporate big whigs, Vegas insiders you just don't know, no one does unless your on the INSIDE!
If there are people who profit on these games BIG TIME and CONSISTENTLY its because they know (much like the stock market big whigs) what is going to most likely occur during these games while the regular investor/gambler has no clue of such inside knowledge. This sounds like part of a conspiracy theory but I am convinced a lot of it is true. These lines are usually right around the number, keeping interest on both betting sides, and I'm sorry but so many have experienced the same old crap (losing huge leads in NBA, totals going a point over or under, blowing that safe lead in the ninth, the fumble that lead to a touchdown and the blown cover) that legitimacy and doubt need to creep into their minds about the authenticity of the athletes and games played every day and night. They are tremendous athletes (enhanced or not) but larger powers are at work fellas, it's just got to be in some way. Anyways its been interesting reading these thoughts and with that said anyone like OVERS tomorrow in the florida or atlanta games?
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Classy, this is one classy post.slick,
I really like your arguments and completely agree with what you are saying. It's pretty funny when you think about people who think they are making a living betting. When you considered getting out of gambling and betting altogether, I think it was probably one of the smartest things I've ever read in a sports forum, much less an interesting sports betting forum such as this one! Because you are actually facing reality and coming to grips with the fact that how many heartbreak losses in the ninth and meaningless bucket/touchdown/goals teeter on the brink of losing or winning in the gambling world. The way I see it anyone who is making a living off betting and gambling either has a decent amount of money in the first place or they are just enjoying trying to pull in a median income every year. First consider the fact they are going to need to have luck many times, can have a decent record at handicapping games, and lets not forget to win big you got to bet big and that incurs the possibility of losing BIG. Plus if they are gambling as more than 50% of their living, then they must be doing some booking as well because of the old adage "I've never heard of a bookie losing"
Now these stats, trends, systems, and all the hours of research cannot guarantee anything!!! Is it possible and really worth trying to to hit between 60-70% winners consistently each sports season depending what leagues you are betting? Sure it is fun and adds to the interest in a meaningless game or further excitement in a playoff game, but in a sense you are additionally risking trying to guarantee that you will earn a consistent yearly income. That just is not the case as winning percentages fluctuate somewhat (at least) yearly among bettors! Nevertheless gamblers do not care and every day provides another opportunity to win and it is enticing no doubt. For leisure and maybe to earn a few bucks at the end of the season sure! But it is insanity (and of course now we get into the sickness and addiction) of enjoying the rush and the stress and emotions that sports "investing" like the stock market plays with gamblers. They have no control of the outcome! Who's on the take? Players, refs/umps, corporate big whigs, Vegas insiders you just don't know, no one does unless your on the INSIDE!
If there are people who profit on these games BIG TIME and CONSISTENTLY its because they know (much like the stock market big whigs) what is going to most likely occur during these games while the regular investor/gambler has no clue of such inside knowledge. This sounds like part of a conspiracy theory but I am convinced a lot of it is true. These lines are usually right around the number, keeping interest on both betting sides, and I'm sorry but so many have experienced the same old crap (losing huge leads in NBA, totals going a point over or under, blowing that safe lead in the ninth, the fumble that lead to a touchdown and the blown cover) that legitimacy and doubt need to creep into their minds about the authenticity of the athletes and games played every day and night. They are tremendous athletes (enhanced or not) but larger powers are at work fellas, it's just got to be in some way. Anyways its been interesting reading these thoughts and with that said anyone like OVERS tomorrow in the florida or atlanta games?
Most could not put 1 paragraph together of thoughtful insight, and you fire in 3 paragraphs like its second nature.
Well done.
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EVERYONE who bets on sports goes through a phase where they think they can be a pro gambler and that it is real easy to be one. They say to themselves, "if I can just get a big enough bankroll, I can do this for a living...." The reality is that being a a pro gambler is an extremely difficult endeavor and most people don't have the mentality to be a pro gambler. Either they don't have the patience (chasing, routinely betting into bad lines, etc...) or the knowledge (low levels of statistical knowledge, aversion to betting certain sports, etc....). For whatever reason, people believe that being a pro sports gambler is something that can be done with relative ease. I am confident that if a 1000 guys on here tried to do it for a living, about 985-995 or so would fail and fail miserably at that.
For example, I saw a guy today who said "he would never bet on women sports again...." b/c he was losing his bet. WHY? Would you prefer to bet into extremely sharp NFL lines? Just because it is a women's sports does not mean you can't bet on it? It doesn't make it an inferior betting market in any way. They all pay the same right? In fact, it is not uncommon to find many of the sharpest cappers betting on the low profile sports (WNBA, Arena, MLS, etc....). Yet this guy had no desire to explore anything other than what was on the corporate sports media stations.
I myself went through a phase where I believed that I could be a pro gambler. I was younger back then and it seemed easy and a fun way to make a living. I learned the hard way that it wasn't and I still continue to learn every day. When you see what guys like Ganch and Durito have to say, you realize just how hard you have to work and what level of knowledge you need to have to be successful. I've since abandoned any notion of doing this as a full time occuption. Instead, it is strictly recreational and if I can make some money then so be it. But I certainly am not going to let sports gambling define my life.
Sadly, most guys on here let sports gambling define them.Comment -
thanks for the compliment slick!! on a side note when these guys are crunching numbers like this Ganch guy or Durito or whatever how much are they working to make a decent income if at all? Love to see a sample of their work and picks coupled because I am guessing it is all mathematical and computer formulated? Interesting way of going about it, but so much numbers crunching is insane. Guess it works in some degrees, but calculations alone can't account for a critical infield error, a mysterious blown whistle, or whatever other in-game factors that have no numbers attached to them can provide. Nevertheless theres no denying the sexiness of trying to live up a dream of being a sports fan and picking winners daily 
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I think the above quote nicely exemplifies the primary difference in philosophy between recreational and (quantitative) advantage bettors.
A sporting event is by its very nature chaotic, associated with an inherent level of essentially irreducible entropy. The goal of the advantage bettor isn't so much to delve in to the entropic, but rather to come up with broadly scoped probability measures that seek to estimate the likelihood of a given outcome, conditioned on the available data.
A good analogy might be a fair coin-flip where a player is able to bet heads at +110 for an EV of +5%. Now let's say a player makes a +110 bet on heads, the coin is flipped and it comes up tails.
An advantage player might reason, "OK I knew I had only a 50% probability of winning going into this bet, I know the coin-flip was fair, offer the bet to me again and I'll make the bet again."
A recreational player however, perhaps overly concerned with the excitement of the bet itself, might watch the flip in super slo-mo. He sees the coin start off tails side up, make 7.5 rotations as it ascends, and on the way down just as it looks almost certain to land heads, a door down the hall is slammed shut, creating a tiny, almost imperceptible wind that knocks a small butterfly into the tails side of the coin, causing, at almost the last moment to land heads side down.
The recreational bettor slams his fist in disgust and says, "This is unreal! I was about to win that bet. How could I have possibly known that that door was going to slam at exactly the moment that the butterfly was flying by. There are just way too many factors at play! The outcome of a coin-flip can't be predicted and there's no way anyone can make money doing this!"
To an extent the recreational is quite right. The precise outcome of a fair coin-flip can't be predicted with certainty. There's no reasonable way in which that slammed door or that butterfly could have be foreseen, or just as importantly, what their impact on the final result would have been even could they have been foreseen.
This is a big reason why, all else being equal, "critical infield errors" or "mysterious blown whistles" don't bother me personally. I'm not trying to predict such essentially "chaotic" subevents and fully realize that they largely can't be predicted past a certain, very generic point. I don't watch games in super slo-mo, because I don't really care for the purposes of a single bet whether I ultimately won or lost due to getting lucky or unlucky.
For an advantage bettor wagering shouldn't be about "picking winners" per se but rather about associating probabilities with various outcomes. Equipped with these initial "prior" probability estimates, advantage bettors should then utilize market evidence (generally in the form of current broad-based market prices) to infer "posterior" probabilities by a process known as "Bayesian inference". These posterior probabilities, which when taken in conjunction with available prices (that, depending upon your bookie, may differ from the broad-based market price), to determine edge and then ultimately bet size.
That's it. That's the entire (quantitative) advantage betting game in a nutshell. Sure, sometimes the "model price" might itself only be a function of the "market price" (such that the posterior and prior probabilities are equivalent), such as in the case of say, betting Bowl underdog of 7+ points prior to New Year's (a strategy which, by the way, I'm by no means way endorsing), but the above is really the essence of advantage betting.
When I bet the Pittsburgh run line last night at +105 and +102 I was no more "predicting" the outcome of the game in any meaningful sense than the earlier hypothetical advantage player betting on heads at +110 was "predicting" the outcome the fair coin-flip.
Currently I believe Pit+1.5 to be fairly valued at about 50.52% (a line of roughly -102.1), implying edges of about 3.56% and 2.04% on my bets at +105 and +102, respectively. As game time approaches, both those estimates (as well as available prices) are likely to change and in response my programs will likely be placing additional bets -- maybe some on the Tampa RL, or on either of the alternate run lines, or or either of the money lines, or on the game or team totals -- but all the while paying close attention not only to my expected value but also to my underlying risk.
I'm going out tonight around 6PM, a good hour before the PIT/TB game starts, I'm sure I'll have no idea about my net exposure to any aspect of the game, and won't know, even if I happen to see the final score, whether I've made or lost money on the event.
Advantage sports betting is all about placing +EV bets while keeping tight control over the reins of risk (implying that -EV are occasionally in order); that the bets' outcomes happen to be based on sporting events is, at least for me, little more than an afterthought. Yeah, so a bottom of the 9th inning grand slam with no outs happened to cost me a visitor +1.5 bet ... but even if I actually knew that, my response could be only, "So what? Shit just sometimes happens." But you know what ... sometimes it happens the other way, too.
So concern yourself with trying to find coin-flips at +110 and just ignore the butterflies and slamming doors. You shouldn't in general be trying to "predict winners", you should be trying to estimate probabilities.Comment -
Ganchrow, You sir are a genius. Everytime I read your posts it gives me new perspective on how to approach this game.
I would love to gamble and day trade full time but that's only cause I hate working so much. Maybe in another life.Comment -
I think the above quote nicely exemplifies the primary difference in philosophy between recreational and (quantitative) advantage bettors.
A sporting event is by its very nature chaotic, associated with an inherent level of essentially irreducible entropy. The goal of the advantage bettor isn't so much to delve in to the entropic, but rather to come up with broad-scoped probability measures that seek to estimate the likelihood of a given outcome, conditioned on the available data.
A good analogy might be a fair coin-flip, where a player is able to bet heads at +110 for an EV of +5%. Now let's say a player makes a +110 bet on heads, the coin is flipped and it comes up tails.
An advantage player might reason, "OK I knew I had only a 50% probability of winning going into this bet, I know the coin-flip was fair, offer the bet to me again and I'll make the bet again."
A recreational player however, perhaps overly concerned with the excitement of the bet itself, might watch the flip in super slo-mo. He sees the coin start off tails side up, make 7.5 rotations as it ascends, and on the way down just as it looks almost certain to land heads, a door down the hall is slammed shut, creating a tiny, almost imperceptible wind that knocks a small butterfly into the tails side of the coin, causing, at almost the last moment to land heads side down.
The recreational bettor slams his fist in disgust and says, "This is unreal! I was about to win that bet. How could I have possibly known that that door was going to slam at exactly the moment that the butterfly was flying by. There are just way too many factors at play! The outcome of a coin-flip can't be predicted and there's no way anyone can make money doing this!"
To an extent the recreational is quite right. The precise outcome of a fair coin-flip can't be predicted with certainty. There's no reasonable way in which that slammed door or that butterfly could have be foreseen, or just as importantly, what their impact on the final result would have been even could they have been foreseen.
This is a big reason why, all else being equal, "critical infield errors" or "mysterious blown whistles" don't bother me personally. I'm not trying to predict such essentially "chaotic" subevents and fully realize that they largely can't be predicted past a certain, very generic point. I don't watch games in super slo-mo, because I don't really care for the purposes of a single bet whether I ultimately won or lost due to getting lucky or unlucky.
For an advantage bettor wagering shouldn't be about "picking winners" per se but rather about associating probabilities with various outcomes. Equipped with these initial "prior" probability estimates, advantage bettors should then utilize market evidence (generally in the form of current broad-based market prices) to infer "posterior" probabilities by a process known as "Bayesian inference". These posterior probabilities, which when taken in conjunction with available prices (that, depending upon your bookie, may differ from the broad-based market price), to determine edge and then ultimately bet size.
That's it. That's the entire (quantitative) advantage betting game in a nutshell. Sure, sometimes the "model price" might itself only be a function of the "market price" (such that the posterior and prior probabilities are equivalent), such as in the case of say, betting Bowl underdog of 7+ points prior to New Year's (a strategy which, by the way, I'm by no means way endorsing), but the above is really the essence of advantage betting.
When I bet the Pittsburgh run line last night at +105 and +102 I was no more "predicting" the outcome of the game in any meaningful sense than the earlier hypothetical advantage player betting on heads at +110 was "predicting" the outcome the fair coin-flip.
Currently I believe Pit+1.5 to be fairly valued at about 50.52% (a line of roughly -102.1), implying edges of about 3.56% and 2.04% on my bets at +105 and +102, respectively. As game time approaches, both those estimates (as well as available prices) are likely to change and in response my programs will likely be placing additional bets -- maybe some on the Tampa RL, or on either of the alternate run lines, or or either of the money lines, or on the game or team totals -- but all the while paying close attention not only to my expected value but also to my underlying risk.
I'm going out tonight around 6PM, a good hour before the PIT/TB game starts, I'm sure I'll have no idea about my net exposure to any aspect of the game, and won't know, even if I happen to see the final score, whether I've made or lost money on the event.
Advantage sports betting is all about placing +EV bets while keeping tight control over the reins of risk (implying that -EV are occasionally in order); that the bets' outcomes happen to be based on sporting events is, at least for me, little more than an afterthought. Yeah, so a bottom of the 9th inning grand slam with no outs happened to cost me a visitor +1.5 bet ... but even if I actually knew that, my response could be only, "So what? Shit just sometimes happens." But you know what ... sometimes it happens the other way, too.
So concern yourself with trying to find coin-flips at +110 and just ignore the butterflies and slamming doors. You shouldn't in general be trying to "predict winners", you should be trying to estimate probabilities.
Ganchrow thanks for the input and the quick summary of using your mathematical formulas to find a quantitative advantage and it definitely shows another side to sports betting. While I also understand each uncontrollable aspect of a game can go either way, essentially you do not concern yourself with this part simply because you can't. But am I not to believe if you could possibly (and I'm sure with numbers there is a way) to calculate the odds on these additional outside factors to see which way it MIGHT go that you wouldn't?? And you say shit happens but can you ultimately dismiss it? I understand your quantitative mind is trying to find the right price and whether it is truly an edge and then how much that edge is worth risking (sounds like detailed card counting to try and create some type of an easy analogy just based on the principle??!!!).
Also the fact that it is sports does not concern you, naturally you are focused on numbers and stats. But remember stats sometimes lie and don't tell the whole story, but I am consenting to the fact it is probably more accurate seeing these Vegas linesmakers and how close so many of these damn games actually are to the line!! So you took the Pirates with a +1.5 RL huh? It opened at even money but now looks to be at -107-110 area... with kazmir pitching hmmm...but you dont really factor that in huh just the pricing? Thanks for your response and hope to talk with you again.
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No one does here. If you can make 10% it is greatComment -
Advice to 99% of posters on SBR: read more Ganchrow, post less.Comment -
sounds like a winner !!
does this mean sbr is a bad ill advised bad information sports forum ? bad betting advice here ?
you profit when sportsbooks do well ? the people that own the forum do ?
this kind of propaganda is priceless !!!
i tryed to avoid this thread and everyone like it but could not resist .. lmao
what winning sports information forum do you suggest ?Comment
