MERCURY is the play tommrow

[sweetjones55]

only line i could find at 11:22/23 was -5 at pinnacle

It was at -3 at 11:22. I even saw the -3 -115 after I put my play in and updated the line. SBRODDS shows the movement.

[sweetjones55]

Hopefully the Mercury win by the amount I handicapped (13-17pts) and everyone wins.

[rfr3sh]

SJ you play at pinny now??
how??

[sweetjones55]

SJ you play at pinny now??
how??

You need to have an account outside of the US. It's pretty easy to do so long as you have a friend you trust. I also have one local though that will take any line that Pinnacle has, lot of guys in Miami want to act big time and take on all action.

[ngates815]

Ok, I never comment in your threads about this stuff but do you realise what you're expecting people to believe and why they're having trouble with it? The line was -3 at 11:21 according to your post above. By the millisecond it turned 11:22 it was already -3.5. You're saying you saw the line at -3 at 11:21, entered your wager amount, waited for it to confirm and then sent out the email to everyone at 11:22? It took you a minute to type the email up, select the "group" to send it to and that's it? Even if you grabbed the line at the very millisecond it first was -3 at 11:21 you do realise that to place the bet and wait for it to confirm and then to send the email would take more than a minute? Unless you magically knew beforehand what the line would open at and had pretyped the email before placing the bet and then managed to place the bet, confirm and then switch tabs to send the email all within a minute. Do you see how ridiculous that sounds? Add to that, people on your email list have come in to your Promos thread to say they never received that email from you at all. And then you took a screenshot 30 minutes later although you hadn't even posted the play here yet so no one had obviously doubted you. But you didn't even post the screenshot for another 20 minutes after that at 12:28. I'm sorry but I'm probably the least cynical person out there and even I'm calling bullshit here. The first paragraph I typed alone is almost impossible to have occurred as you say unless, well I'm not sure how. Edited to add: You're correct in that you're posting these plays "for free". This is not the Sports Promotions forum. Everyone is posting their plays for free or they'd be restricted from posting. But if you want to develop credibility then you should at least consider what people are saying to you when they're offering you feedback.

Thank god I read through the rest of the first page before I started typing. I was going to pretty much say the exact same thing.

He didn't know he'd have to prove to us at 11:22 that he got it at -3, but 30 minutes later he thought he might as well take a screenshot. That sounds bogus to me, a guy that barely graduated high school.

If this guy is really tout, he's probably just trying to hustle up some more customers. "It's all about beating the closing lines"

[sweetjones55]

Thank god I read through the rest of the first page before I started typing. I was going to pretty much say the exact same thing.

He didn't know he'd have to prove to us at 11:22 that he got it at -3, but 30 minutes later he thought he might as well take a screenshot. That sounds bogus to me, a guy that barely graduated high school.

If this guy is really tout, he's probably just trying to hustle up some more customers. "It's all about beating the closing lines"

I post all my WNBA plays and writeups for FREE. I haven't even seen one person with a writeup as long as mine yet in this league. Yet somehow I am the bad guy putting in all this time/effort because I play an opening line that happens to move? Everyone should want the line they play to move against them.

About me hustling up some more customers and touting. That is not my style. I probably know more about the WNBA than most yet charge zero even though I could. My first WNBA game, I took the Sky -6 the other day. The line opened at -3. Did I go ahead and post -3? No, because I didn't get that line. I learned my lesson on that game though and figured out at what time the lines open. I contact Pinnacle customer service and they told me lines open between 11:00-11:30AM ET so I waited and took the opener, very simple.

No one is forcing you to come into this thread. I am not selling anything. Honestly I am just posting up my plays, why I play them and tracking myself. I owe absolutely nothing to anyone in regards to WNBA.

[ngates815]

Not the bad guy at all.

Gotta advertise somewhere.

Like I said, just hustling up some customers, sooner or later you'll start charging. But gotta advertise first. And why not start by taking a line 5 points lower than it opened at most books. And to think Pinnacle is supposed to be one of the "sharp" books, who would think their opening line would be 8 points off.

[sweetjones55]

Not the bad guy at all.

Gotta advertise somewhere.

Like I said, just hustling up some customers, sooner or later you'll start charging. But gotta advertise first. And why not start by taking a line 5 points lower than it opened at most books. And to think Pinnacle is supposed to be one of the "sharp" books, who would think their opening line would be 8 points off.

I am not advertising or hustling customers as I would never charge. I don't consider myself an expert in the WNBA and never will as I just can't get pumped about the sport. It's extremely boring.

Pinnacle is sharp but in the WNBA they allow themselves to be exploited at smaller limits. They let the market determine the line in a way.

[HoulihansTX]

The opening limits on WNBA are so small that they could take 100% one sided money for 10 straight minutes, andx not sweat the outcome.

They are paying out crumbs. Book take WNBA action for the action.

A game between UIC and Cleveland St in College hoops receives more action.

[sweetjones55]

The opening limits on WNBA are so small that they could take 100% one sided money for 10 straight minutes, andx not sweat the outcome.

They are paying out crumbs. Book take WNBA action for the action.

A game between UIC and Cleveland St in College hoops receives more action.

Exactly. (Hopefully that PG from Cleveland St. turns out to be halfdecent for the Heat, lol)

[Jerm3462]

The key to sports betting is to beat the closing line and to do so you have to be quick and hit these lines when they are at their weakest points.

I don't really agree.

If I had bet Boston last night at -190, and the line closed at -180, aren't I still winning?

If you played the O's at +170 and it closed at +160, you beat the closing line, but you are still a loser.

I dont get that.

[rfr3sh]

long term that's how you win

[Gee]

I dropped the ball and didn't get on this.

Jones came into chat, told us about the play, gave us his reasoning (which was sound) and said to get on it when the lines came out, because it would move. He even told us when Pinny usually opens.

Its frustrating when you can't get the same number as someone, particularly when its such a dramatic move which would render it a no-play, but this isn't a hustle. He even posted that he still liked the play where it was at (-7.5). Jones probably wanted to show off what line he got and whats wrong with that? Guy was spot on about telling us to get in early.

ps. and no, I won't be a SJ subscriber sorry pal.

[shari91]

Its frustrating when you can't get the same number as someone, particularly when its such a dramatic move which would render it a no-play, but this isn't a hustle. He even posted that he still liked the play where it was at (-7.5). Jones probably wanted to show off what line he got and whats wrong with that? Guy was spot on about telling us to get in early. ps. and no, I won't be a SJ subscriber sorry pal.

Gee, I think you're missing the point here a bit. He could've thought this was a good play a week ago for all anyone cares.

[sweetjones55]

I dropped the ball and didn't get on this.

Jones came into chat, told us about the play, gave us his reasoning (which was sound) and said to get on it when the lines came out, because it would move. He even told us when Pinny usually opens.

Its frustrating when you can't get the same number as someone, particularly when its such a dramatic move which would render it a no-play, but this isn't a hustle. He even posted that he still liked the play where it was at (-7.5). Jones probably wanted to show off what line he got and whats wrong with that? Guy was spot on about telling us to get in early.

ps. and no, I won't be a SJ subscriber sorry pal.

I completely forgot that I discussed the play in chat that morning before the line even came out. But again no one will believe I was actually waiting on the line

[phillybadboy]

I completely forgot that I discussed the play in chat that morning before the line even came out. But again no one will believe I was actually waiting on the line

okay i'm gona wait on every game coming out tommorrow, i'm gona wait to see if it moves 3 or 4 points or 100 cents on the ml, and come in here 2 hours later and say i jumped on all the oiginal numbers, i hope you guys got those in when i did, gl lol

[sweetjones55]

okay i'm gona wait on every game coming out tommorrow, i'm gona wait to see if it moves 3 or 4 points or 100 cents on the ml, and come in here 2 hours later and say i jumped on all the oiginal numbers, i hope you guys got those in when i did, gl lol

That's obviously not what I do. I took Sky -6 the other day. The line opened at -3. I didn't post that because I didn't get that line. So anyone that thinks I am just picking out the best line and posting it is dead wrong.

So what I did after missing that good line on the Sky was email Pinnacle and find out when the lines open. Here's the copy/pasted email response I got from Pinnacle that same day at 10:44AM Thursday July 7th. I read this and just waited for the Mercury line to come out and jumped on it.

Dear Sir,

You may expect WNBA game wagering lines to be available the day before the game at approximately 8:00 am pacific.

Kind regards,

Customer Service Department
Pinnacle Sports

(CaseNumber-1571255_5)

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Don't question what # a guy got. That's bush-lg stuff. Just try to improve your own game.

[sweetjones55]

Mercury -3 LOCKED (x1) Winner

I am rolling with the Phoenix Mercury playing on the road at Tulsa Shock. The Mercury are 6-4 this year while the Shock are just 1-9. I am just sensing a ton of weakness from the Shock. Tulsa's team is just built very odd. They have a bunch of forwards and centers but barely any guards. They only have two legit guards on the entire roster, Ivory Latta and Andrea Riley. Latta is good but Riley is downright horrible. She is a 33% FG shooter lifetime. The only other guard on the entire roster is Marion Jones, former track runner. She is a joke and shouldn't even be in the league. On the other hand, the Mercury have outstanding guard play. Diana Taurasi is one of the best players in this league and can really light it up. I don't know who Tulsa will try and put on her to slow her down. Tameka and Marie can also put the ball int he basket. Candice Dupree also plays around the permitter a decent amount and is very good putting the ball down and going to the basket.

Tulsa is just in complete disarray right now. The entire town wants the coach fired. He has never coached a womens team and is failing miserably right now. It's not entirely his fault as the team just doesn't have any talent. This team shoots a good amount of airballs... in pregame warmups! That is unheard of even in HS Basketball. On top of the fact that Tulsa is by far the worst team in the league, three of their starters are hurt in Holt, Jackson and Swoopes. Holt is OUT tomorrow night, she averages 7.5ppg 4.5rpg. Jackson is questionable and averages 9.4ppg and 7.1rpg and Swoopes is probable and averages 6.7ppg and 3rpg.

Phoenix has owned Tulsa the last four times they have played them. They are 4-0 SU and 3-1ATS last four games vs Tulsa. They have won by +23 Points average in their last two meetings in Tulsa. They have won by +16.5 points the last four meetings vs Tulsa.

Another profitable angle I see on this game is the fact that Tulsa has not played in 8 days prior to this game. Long layoffs usually hurt WNBA teams a lot, they usually come out rusty shooting the ball. That is bad news for Tulsa as they are already the worst shooting team in the league at 39.9%. This is a scary stat for Tulsa but Phoenix nearly shoots better from 3 Pointers (37.43%) than Tulsa shoots from the field (39.9%).

The big reason I like Phoenix is the credit the linesmakers give Tulsa for home court. Home court advantage is huge in the WNBA and the lines reflect this. But in the case of Tulsa, I feel as if they should get no points for home court yet they linesmakers do and in that lies the line value. Tulsa has the worst fan attendance in the league and I really think fans come out just to watch the opposition at this point. They have no home court advantage whatsoever. It makes no sense to me how they are +14 on the road all the time yet they come home and they only catch +5 to +9.

The Shock were just 5-12 ATS at home last year and are 2-3 ATS home this year. That's a combined 7-15 (31%) ATS at home the past two years. The Shock average 72.3ppg and have only scored over 80 points once this year. I really think they will have to score 90 to keep up with Phoenix. I don't see that happening at all with all the injuries, bad coaching and lack of chemistry. I think the Mercury will win comfortably by about 13-17 points.

Mercury lead all game, up by 16 in the 3Q, and pull off the nice 8 point win. 1-0 tonight +1 UNIT. 2-0 for the entire WNBA season.

[Reload]

Pinnacle's early WNBA openers are highly unusable to track plays. They aren't "widely available" enough and move on the lowest of action.

Bookmaker and The Greek opened at -8. That's the fairest opener to use for tracking, and even that number lasted less than an hour.

[sweetjones55]

Pinnacle's early WNBA openers are highly unusable to track plays. They aren't "widely available" enough and move on the lowest of action.

Bookmaker and The Greek opened at -8. That's the fairest opener to use for tracking, and even that number lasted less than an hour.

I track my plays based on the line I get.

[rfr3sh]

how do you bet at pinny?

[sweetjones55]

how do you bet at pinny?

Anyone can bet at Pinny so long as they have a friend they trust that lives outside of the US.

[rfr3sh]

so within in a minute of the line coming out you told you friend to pound it?
and this is before you knew when the line was even going to come out
I highly doubt it

[Reload]

Anyone can bet at Pinny so long as they have a friend they trust that lives outside of the US.

Just one reason making it un-widely available and not valid for tracking. Congrats on the winner - you beat the line moves and scored. But it didn't help anyone wanting to back your pick, and that's what tracked winners should measure.

[YorkHunt]

Dude is a phony.. Faded him and won.. Guy thinks he moves lines

[sweetjones55]

Dude is a phony.. Faded him and won.. Guy thinks he moves lines

Well I just took Sky -3.5 30 minutes ago and the Sky moved -5.5. There are only three other games tomorrrow and I guess it's just a huge coinicidence that the ONLY line that has moved just so happens to be the side I made a play on.

[phillybadboy]

Well I just took Sky -3.5 30 minutes ago and the Sky moved -5.5. There are only three other games tomorrrow and I guess it's just a huge coinicidence that the ONLY line that has moved just so happens to be the side I made a play on.

i guess you're the only guy who bet that game lol

[sweetjones55]

i guess you're the only guys who bet that game lol

Never said that. Just think it's a funny coincidence that of the eight sides that are available tomorrow that the one I played moved two points. Last I checked, WNBA lines don't move 2 points at 12:00AM the day before the game especially if the line has been on for available for a while and has moved around to equilibrium.

[phillybadboy]

Never said that. Just think it's a funny coincidence that of the eight sides that are available tomorrow that the one I played moved two points. Last I checked, WNBA lines don't move 2 points at 12:00AM the day before the game especially if the line has been on for available for a while and has moved around to equilibrium.

what eight sides? thee's 4 games

[sweetjones55]

what eight sides? thee's 4 games

4 games, 8 teams. Of the 8 teams, the one I made a play on moved.

[lakerboy]

pretty sad.

[YorkHunt]

Post your tickets or your full of shit...

[phillybadboy]

4 games, 8 teams. Of the 8 teams, the one I made a play on moved.

dude it moves cause people are betting it, thats all

[sweetjones55]

dude it moves cause people are betting it, thats all

I completely agree.