Someone sharp: Please help my square ass out here...

downsouth · 05-30-11, 09:21 AM

Im am a total square as well but

Mavs series $400 at =155 pays $620

Other scenarios unless Mavs sweep or win 4-1 then you come out worse as $100 pay $650 but them you lose $300 on other losing wagers.

Mammon · 05-30-11, 09:23 AM

Bingo!

opie1988 · 05-30-11, 09:25 AM

Originally posted by downsouth

Im am a total square as well but

Mavs series $400 at =155 pays $620
Other scenarios unless Mavs sweep or win 4-1 then you come out worse as $100 pay $650 but them you lose $300 on other losing wagers.

Agree on losing the other $300....but you still have $400 out to win $650. That's a $30 win over the straight series +155 price.

Right???

RealSlimShady · 05-30-11, 09:31 AM

Opie, you are no square!

wiffle · 05-30-11, 09:37 AM

sometimes u r able to do this but not here

43.5 vs 39.2 breakeven percentages

(if my math is right)

paco · 05-30-11, 09:37 AM

Mavs in 6 sounds good.

This finals 2-3-2 format actually favors the Mavs.

k13 · 05-30-11, 09:43 AM

All options equal $0 since Mavs will lose the series.

jamoc023 · 05-30-11, 09:44 AM

4-2 4-3 are the most likely results better off taking the Mavs Outright maybe wait and see if the Heat win game 1 you will get a better price on Mavs thats what im hopin for Dallas have far better players than Miami Nowitzki ,Terry,Barrea,Kidd James and Bosh cant be expected to do it all for The Heat Plus you need 3point shooters to win games

RudyRuetigger · 05-30-11, 09:44 AM

Originally posted by downsouth

Im am a total square as well but

Mavs series $400 at =155 pays $620

Other scenarios unless Mavs sweep or win 4-1 then you come out worse as $100 pay $650 but them you lose $300 on other losing wagers.

correct

Bradyd · 05-30-11, 09:49 AM

Originally posted by paco

Mavs in 6 sounds good.

This finals 2-3-2 format actually favors the Mavs.

In theory, yes. But the reality is that the Mavs either have to win 3 in a row at home OR win 2 @ Miami. Neither is favorable for the Mavs....

RealSlimShady · 05-30-11, 09:51 AM

A $400 wager on the series would win $620. $100 on each outcome would net $1350, $500, $350 or $350 respectively. You will be better off only if Dallas wins 4-0.

jubuck757 · 05-30-11, 09:53 AM

If you betting dallas to win the series you is basically giving your money away .

opie1988 · 05-30-11, 09:59 AM

Originally posted by downsouth

Im am a total square as well but
Mavs series $400 at =155 pays $620
Other scenarios unless Mavs sweep or win 4-1 then you come out worse as $100 pay $650 but them you lose $300 on other losing wagers.

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

correct

Originally posted by RealSlimShady

A $400 wager on the series would win $620. $100 on each outcome would net $1350, $500, $350 or $350 respectively. You will be better off only if Dallas wins 4-0.

Now I get it....

Thanks fellas.

This is what SBR is all about.....confirming beyond any doubt that I am an insufferable square!

Wow! No wonder these books seem to call me an awful lot.

RealSlimShady · 05-30-11, 10:03 AM

Opie, if you were a square, you wouldnt even have asked the question. And you'd tail JJ's spreadsheet blindly!

eldoctord · 05-30-11, 10:06 AM

Under scenario #1 bet $400 win $620 = $1,020
Scenario #2 bet $400 win $1,650 = $1,750
Scenario #3 bet $400 win $800 = $900
Scenario #4/5 bet $400 win $650 = $750

Under each scenario you make a profit but you need to take into account money lost on series outcomes. Which looks like the safer bet now?

Full Time Hobo · 05-30-11, 10:12 AM

Take the series bet at +155 and hedge accordingly.

Good luck Opie

ApricotSinner32 · 05-30-11, 10:13 AM

If the mavs win the series it's going to be in 6 or 7 games... I lean towards 7.

Good luck... opie bet the nationals moneyline today tough guy.

opie1988 · 05-30-11, 10:17 AM

Originally posted by eldoctord

Under scenario #1 bet $400 win $620 = $1,020
Scenario #2 bet $400 win $1,650 = $1,750
Scenario #3 bet $400 win $800 = $900
Scenario #4/5 bet $400 win $650 = $750
Under each scenario you make a profit but you need to take into account money lost on series outcomes. Which looks like the safer bet now?

Originally posted by Full Time Hobo

Take the series bet at +155 and hedge accordingly.
Good luck Opie

Exactly what I'm going to do!

Now if I could just get past being such a Mavs/Rangers/Stars/Cowboys homer.......

Oh well........not too often you get to bet on your fave team to win a Championship!! GO MAVS!!

EasyHustlin · 05-30-11, 10:19 AM

Take Dirk MVP +180

paco · 05-30-11, 10:25 AM

Originally posted by Bradyd

In theory, yes. But the reality is that the Mavs either have to win 3 in a row at home OR win 2 @ Miami. Neither is favorable for the Mavs....

Most resilient road team all season. Ask the the Lakers and Thunder what they think of the Mavs when playing on the road

Bradyd · 05-30-11, 10:45 AM

Originally posted by paco

Most resilient road team all season. Ask the the Lakers and Thunder what they think of the Mavs when playing on the road

Not taking that away from them, they are good on the road.. But ask the 76ers, Celtics, and Bulls what they think of Miami at home...

OSUCOWBOYS · 05-30-11, 10:58 AM

Originally posted by EasyHustlin

Take Dirk MVP +180

Great bet due to the obvious correlation. But that is a very limited market where only a couple dimes can be bet. (Unless you have multiple offscreen outs.)

iifold · 05-30-11, 11:07 AM

Opie.. Title should read:

"Math Geeks: Help my square ass out here"

These mathers aren't sharp, don't give them that much credit.. 90% of them can't even bowl with a 10 pound ball, how are they gonna tell you anything about sports...

Extra Innings · 05-30-11, 12:26 PM

You think like me Opie. I once made a genius post like this analyzing 3 ways in the NHL. Stopped posting about sports shortly after that

opie1988 · 05-30-11, 12:33 PM

Originally posted by Extra Innings

You think like me Opie. I once made a genius post like this analyzing 3 ways in the NHL. Stopped posting about sports shortly after that

As ridiculous as it seems.....I actually forgot to count the money you have to put up for the bet. Small oversight on my part.

In my defense....at least I thankfully worded it as a question. (THANK GOD).

Can you imagine if I would've been all "Don't miss this opportunity to bury the books, you square fukks!!"

Still.....it doesn't get much squarer than this. In hindsight, probably should've just pm'ed a few guys.....

d2bets · 05-30-11, 12:46 PM

Originally posted by opie1988

I have a question about the Mavs/Heat series. Right now, you can get Mavs Series price at +155.

But you can get the Exact Series Outcome at the following:

25521 MAVERICKS WIN 4 - 0 +1650
25522 MAVERICKS WIN 4 - 1 +800
25523 MAVERICKS WIN 4 - 2 +650
25524 MAVERICKS WIN 4 - 3 +650

What am I missing here? Why wouldn't you break your wagers out a little on each possible outcome? As opposed to taking the +155 Series price? Regardless of how the series finishes, if you're taking the Mavs....you're odds are much better in this situation.

If you put $100 on each of the 4 Series outcome bets vs. $400 on Mavs +155.....worst case scenario you win $30 more by having the Exact Outcome wager.

I realize I'm a total square.....but is this correct? Thanks in advance, fellas.

Happy Memorial Day, SBR

$40 @ +1650 win 660 minus 280 = 380
$80 @ +800 win 640 minus 240 = 400
$100 @ +650 win 650 minus 220 = 430
$100 @ +650 win 650 minus 220 = 430

Risking 320 total to win either 380/400/430/430

That is worse than +155 in each and every scenario.

You can thank me for saving you $ with whatever points you feel appropriate.

suicidekings · 05-30-11, 05:39 PM

If you like Dallas to win the series, you're better off making a wager on the Mavs ML in Game 1. If it wins, you have cash in hand. If it loses, you have access to a much fatter Dallas series price, with the Heat up 1-0.

billyloco · 05-30-11, 05:52 PM

personally...I'm taking all props on Lebron & Dwayne...last year I plussed 32 units just during the Championship games....

opie1988 · 05-30-11, 05:54 PM

Let me say this to all my boys here at SBR.....

Not a single guy in this thread gave me sh*t over this. Not one.

And to be honest....it would have been deserved. It was a pretty dumb mistake by a fairly large square (me), and you guys were all totally cool and helpful.

That says a lot about most guys on this forum. Anyone who says guys can't come to SBR to share gambling questions/knowkedge without getting ripped.....obviously hasn't visited PT in awhile.

Thanks for help here, fellas. Much appreciated.

8ArIvd5 · 05-30-11, 05:55 PM

opie, you could have gotten bruins series +100 over TB if you bet the series outcomes like this.

would have cashed too.

Qtip · 05-31-11, 03:05 AM

When I first started out, I would always parlay the team I liked with both the over and the under in 2 separate bets for better odds. I thought I was real smart

Art Vandeleigh · 05-31-11, 04:36 AM

Originally posted by jubuck757

If you betting dallas to win the series you is basically giving your money away .

This is what everyone said about the Detroit Pistons in 2004 when they were +600 dogs to the Lakers.

phillybadboy · 05-31-11, 05:10 AM

art vandeleigh,,,

lakerboy · 05-31-11, 08:30 AM

Originally posted by Bradyd

Not taking that away from them, they are good on the road.. But ask the 76ers, Celtics, and Bulls what they think of Miami at home...

Miami is gonna lose one home game this round regardless of what those other teams did. Just like Dallas is gonna lose one home game most likely. Dallas already won in miami this year. Pretty sure they could do it again. Although it wont relate much to this series the Mavs have beaten the heat 10 straight times.