Are +1.5 Runlines the way to go now that nobody can hit anymore??

[iifold]

Thoughts?

[vyomguy]

[chilidog]

Are we seeing the same scoreboards??

[pokernut9999]

No with the numbers you have to lay.

[drfunkmaster]

[ZetaPsi808]

not necessarily.

first, teams often win 2-0 and 3-1 now.
second, books have adjusted by lowering totals and increasing the juice on the +1.5 side

[Jasonal_98]

Too much juice on the majority of those +1.5 plays.

[ThaTopMoron]

-1.5 pick yo spots like today

C.Lee due to win, facing his "old team" the Rangers... who r injured, and have no reason to need "revenge" on C.Lee... who helped get them to a WS and did not spurn them for more money.

Easy win today.

or Timmy bounce back vs a team that cannot hit, 3-0. another easy one. or the White Sox today after blowing it last night... with Buherle who owns in interleague games, easy cap and win today.

in MLB you gotta pick your spots. betting everyday is not the way!!!

[KC]

Like a decent road team getting 1.5 and laying less than -150

[pennsylvania209]

I like taking the 1.5 runline on division games

[zoso11871]

I like taking the 1.5 runline on division games

I like these plays as well.

[Dukebluejms]

There have been an extraordinary amount of 1 run games it seems like this year.

[illmatick]

been running good with runlines this year.

[sneak-a-peak]

i've been doing a lot of the -1 and +1 lines at 5dimes because of the closer to even odds and boy have i had a ton of pushes this year.....

anyone know any other books that offer the -1 and +1

[Flight]

Yes they are.

Houston Astros +1.5 -180
Listed Pitchers (W Rodriguez @ K Drabek)

[Ace_of_Spades]

Wouldn't do it.

[Rich Boy]

Had Oak +1.5 and the screwjobs in the 8th inning really kill you.

[warriorfan707]

horrible bets

[ThaWoj]

i've been doing a lot of the -1 and +1 lines at 5dimes because of the closer to even odds and boy have i had a ton of pushes this year.....

anyone know any other books that offer the -1 and +1

i like to do this as well. you know how much harder it is to win by 2 then it is by 1?? (especially true in hockey - tho the empty net factor changes things a bit)

i was actually wondering what the math on this was, maybe someone can chime in, but basically what gives you the most 'long-term value' or in other words what will get closest to the lowest -EV in the longrun;

money line, -1, -1.5, +1, +1.5

i know obv that the + side you risk more to win less but have a better chance of winning and vice versa for the chalk side. so my Q is again in the longrun consistenly betting which side/number gives the best long-run probability of winning (or minimizing losses). and also which is the best for short-term winning?

[Rich Boy]

i like to do this as well. you know how much harder it is to win by 2 then it is by 1?? (especially true in hockey - tho the empty net factor changes things a bit)

i was actually wondering what the math on this was, maybe someone can chime in, but basically what gives you the most 'long-term value' or in other words what will get closest to the lowest -EV in the longrun;

money line, -1, -1.5, +1, +1.5

i know obv that the + side you risk more to win less but have a better chance of winning and vice versa for the chalk side. so my Q is again in the longrun consistenly betting which side/number gives the best long-run probability of winning (or minimizing losses). and also which is the best for short-term winning?

Moneylines are the best since you are paying less juice. Books always juice up the runline plays, but you can get -105 on Moneylines

[BigOrangeTitans]

stick to moneylines kid. i think 3/4 games end in 2+ run leads.

[ThaWoj]

Moneylines are the best since you are paying less juice. Books always juice up the runline plays, but you can get -105 on Moneylines

thx for the insight. i always thought -1 was the way to go b/c ex. +115 is much better than having -145 and worst thing is u push if u win by 1. i guess i didnt realize how many one-run games there are.

[lunchbawks]

i've been doing a lot of the -1 and +1 lines at 5dimes because of the closer to even odds and boy have i had a ton of pushes this year.....

anyone know any other books that offer the -1 and +1

Pinnacle

I've been pushing alot this season as well. I rarely play a -1.5, you can't even count on 2 runs being scored in some of these games.

[astrodomer]

got a point.....runs are down.......I like the 1 and half

[the_situation]

-1/+1 is stupid imo...a lot of 1 run games and the small juice reduction doesn't warrant needing 2 runs to win

[Sawyer]

If you pick +1.5, other team will win by 5-10 runs.

If you pick -1.5 RL, your team will win by 1 run. This is an universal rule, lol.

[gryfyn1]

The question really is does a low socring run environment lead to more 1 run games?

from 2007-2009 about 27% of games were 1 run games, last year there was an uptick to 29%, but this year is back down to 27%.

this year, teams with the lowest run differential play about 32% 1run game, and the 5 teams with the lowest scoring games play about 34%.

And Oakland, who is the lowest scoring team at about 7 runs per game, and had one of the lowest run differencals, at +5, has played 36%.

So while there is a visible uptick in 1 run games, the increase is fairly small, and not nearly enough to overcome the line adjustments.

[dark star]

Lose 3 or 4 of these and you'll think twice about playing a lot of them.

[thebertshow]

Play whatever you are good at

[LT Profits]

i've been doing a lot of the -1 and +1 lines at 5dimes because of the closer to even odds and boy have i had a ton of pushes this year.....

anyone know any other books that offer the -1 and +1

Every book in the world does. You can create your own -1 line by combining ML and -1.5 in a way that if a team wins by exactly 1, you break even. Also, the odds on -1 oftentimes come out better than the straight -1 line at Pinny (shock...they know what they are doing...LOL).

[JVP3122]

-1.5 pick yo spots like today

C.Lee due to win, facing his "old team" the Rangers... who r injured, and have no reason to need "revenge" on C.Lee... who helped get them to a WS and did not spurn them for more money.

Easy win today.

or Timmy bounce back vs a team that cannot hit, 3-0. another easy one. or the White Sox today after blowing it last night... with Buherle who owns in interleague games, easy cap and win today.

in MLB you gotta pick your spots. betting everyday is not the way!!!

Except that this game was 1-0 into the eighth inning when the Giants got two more runs. It would have been a win if you played the -1.5 runline but that was not an easy one.

[cant call it]

[stevenash]

Timmy -1.5 +160 yesterday was Christmas in May

[sneak-a-peak]

Every book in the world does. You can create your own -1 line by combining ML and -1.5 in a way that if a team wins by exactly 1, you break even. Also, the odds on -1 oftentimes come out better than the straight -1 line at Pinny (shock...they know what they are doing...LOL).

ya good point.

i have done that a few times in the past but i guess i just like the convenience that 5dimes offer.

[BigDan]

ive been having great success taking the +1.5 with certain teams and certain spots this year, more times than not the dog wins if the bet wins but that 1.5 has saved me on a lot more times than the juice has hurt me so far (knock on wood) , particularly al west games it seems like, or against any of the teams that have trouble scoring.

today i like the fish +1.5. laa +1.5. oak +1.5 (but this has to be parlayed cause the juice is crazy)