Bracket Scenario Analysis

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  • Ganchrow
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 08-28-05
    • 5011

    #1
    Bracket Scenario Analysis
    The following is a breakdown by player of the number of winning scenarios out of the 32,768 remaining. The first, second, and third columns following the player's name correspond to the number of win, place, and show finishes respectively. (Note that if for example, two players tie for first place, then in this analysis each would receive credit for half of both first and second places. The next closest place in the rankings would then only receive credit for third place.) The last column represents the number of scenarios in which the player places in ANY of win, place, or show (either alone or jointly).
    Code:
    Player		Win	Place	Show	Any
    ---------------------------------------------
    BigDaddy	3,855	1,974	2,588	8,764
    pags11		3,260	3,061	2,607	9,354
    Illusion	2,894	3,043	2,886	9,281
    imgv94		2,883	1,384	1,444	5,991
    LVHerbie	2,537	1,325	1,626	5,683
    kdmfox		2,382	1,987	1,703	6,221
    stump		2,043	849	890	4,017
    sportsfun	1,704	1,501	1,525	4,882
    bookie		1,347	959	831	3,308
    goldseeker	1,212	1,708	1,732	5,182
    JDK192		998	863	897	2,877
    dog		963	1,035	482	2,636
    Bill Dozer	931	1,983	1,221	4,373
    goldengoat	909	1,042	674	2,703
    bigboydan	772	1,311	1,598	3,948
    mrmookie	703	1,544	1,057	3,427
    geo378		630	347	487	1,470
    xxx		603	1,075	1,203	3,166
    Pingman60	427	761	718	2,027
    David		419	1,463	1,173	3,173
    ganchrow	389	1,658	2,234	4,717
    Jonathan	289	366	415	1,176
    Orange		230	213	170	640
    5teamparlay	171	110	248	602
    cooljh		76	187	382	709
    darkghost	45	305	516	992
    natrass		30	62	92	204
    Winston Smith	30	105	234	462
    awol256		16	65	98	228
    InSpades	15	166	183	448
    Sean		8	14	65	96
    Willie Bee	0	182	410	642
    Brick Tamland	0	86	236	403
    MetraDynamix	0	24	90	124
    Ira Wilton	0	12	35	63
    presley177	0	1	5	12
    Razz		0	0	12	12
    aceking		0	0	4	4
    yellowdragon	0	0	2	2
    Dave		0	0	0	0
    Greivin		0	0	0	0
    jisav		0	0	0	0
    picantel	0	0	0	0
    scottyy11	0	0	0	0
    TheTurk		0	0	0	0
    ---------------------------------------------
    Total		32,768	32,768	32,768
    A few interesting observations:
    • Not all scenario are equally likely. Indeed some may beconsiderably more or less likely than others.
    • It is mathematically impossible for any of Dave, Greivin, jisav, picantel, scottyy11, and TheTurk to finish in the money
    • Winston Smith is currently tied for fourth place with xxx, however only 0.09% of outcomes have Winston winning while 1.839% of outcomes have xxx winning
    • Although LVHerbie is currently stuck way back in a three way tie for 17th place, he still has the fourth highest number of 1st place scenarios
  • BigDaddy
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 02-01-06
    • 8378

    #2
    How did you figure all that out? why would my place be lower % than show?


    Thanks
    Comment
    • ganchrow
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 08-28-05
      • 5011

      #3
      Originally posted by BigDaddy
      How did you figure all that out?
      This results come from an old program I wrote when administering a NCAA tournament pool about 10 years ago.

      Originally posted by BigDaddy
      Why would my place be lower % than show?
      "place" and "show represent exactly 2nd and 3rd place finishes respectively (NOT 2nd/3rd place or better). The terminology I had chose is a bit misleading.
      Comment
      • bigboydan
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 08-10-05
        • 55420

        #4
        this is some interesting stuff ganchrow. i was going to ask you the same thing, but bigdaddy beat me to it.
        Comment
        • Illusion
          Restricted User
          • 08-09-05
          • 25166

          #5
          Thanks for all of your hard work ganch.
          Comment
          • ganchrow
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 08-28-05
            • 5011

            #6
            Likely 1st place winners and % of conditional scenarios given a specific national champion:

            Code:
            --(1)Connecticut	
            Illusion	16.357%
            pags11		15.967%
            	
            --(1)Villanova	
            goldengoat	37.744%
            dog		37.695%
            	
            --(1)Duke	
            BigDaddy	67.041%
            	
            --(1)Memphis	
            sportsfun	53.906%
            JDK192		33.105%
            	
            --(12)Bradley	
            Illusion	30.762%
            BigDaddy	16.504%
            pags11		14.990%
            	
            --(2)Texas	
            stump		77.441%
            	
            --(2)UCLA	
            imgv94		59.863%
            Illusion	12.793%
            	
            --(3)Florida	
            pags11		37.305%
            	
            --(3)Gozaga	
            LVHerbie	40.625%
            geo378		30.762%
            Bill Dozer	12.500%
            bigboydan	12.256%
            	
            --(4)LSU	
            bookie		29.639%
            	
            --(4)Boston College	
            kdmfox		76.953%
            mrmookie	21.875%
            	
            --(5)Washington	
            BigDaddy	12.646%
            pags11		12.451%
            	
            --(6)West Virginia	
            BigDaddy	26.367%
            pags11		12.939%
            	
            --(7)Wichita State	
            Illusion	16.992%
            BigDaddy	12.109%
            	
            --(7)Georgetown	
            BigDaddy	18.262%
            	
            --(11)George Mason	
            BigDaddy	13.232%
            pags11		13.184%
            Comment
            • Illusion
              Restricted User
              • 08-09-05
              • 25166

              #7
              That's pretty cool, thanks again ganch.
              Comment
              • pags11
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 08-18-05
                • 12264

                #8
                great stuff as usual ganchrow...
                Comment
                • ganchrow
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 08-28-05
                  • 5011

                  #9
                  The following are my exceedingly rough estimates of those players most likely (5% or greater probability) to finish in the money in the NCAA tournament. Ties for all places are considered fractionally.

                  Code:
                  Exactly 1st place:
                  pags11		22%
                  imgv94		9%
                  kdmfox		9%
                  BigDaddy	8%
                  sportsfun	7%
                  stump		5%
                  Illusion	5%
                  
                  Exactly 2nd place:
                  pags11		15%
                  ganchrow	10%
                  goldseeker	7%
                  Illusion	6%
                  David		6%
                  BigDaddy	5%
                  kdmfox		5%
                  imgv94		5%
                  
                  Exactly 3rd place:
                  ganchrow	14%
                  pags11		11%
                  Illusion	8%
                  goldseeker	6%
                  BigDaddy	5%
                  Comment
                  • pags11
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 08-18-05
                    • 12264

                    #10
                    I can't wait for these games to start...
                    Comment
                    • ganchrow
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 08-28-05
                      • 5011

                      #11
                      8,192 scenarios remaining after tonight's early games:

                      Code:
                      Player		1st	2nd	3rd	Any
                      ---------------------------------------------
                      sportsfun	1,319	1,022	681	3,119
                      pags11		793	656	698	2,265
                      LVHerbie	683	283	392	1,408
                      Illusion	640	913	1,021	2,752
                      bookie		549	367	344	1,330
                      imgv94		528	233	264	1,044
                      kdmfox		444	263	205	944
                      stump		423	181	145	804
                      JDK192		404	550	471	1,500
                      goldseeker	399	699	657	1,902
                      BigDaddy	351	130	379	918
                      bigboydan	253	376	404	1,116
                      Bill Dozer	232	554	264	1,076
                      xxx		219	303	323	912
                      mrmookie	170	280	137	605
                      dog		168	136	118	428
                      goldengoat	134	158	166	496
                      geo378		112	88	108	307
                      5teamparlay	84	66	40	206
                      Jonathan	82	160	185	478
                      Pingman60	74	77	86	253
                      ganchrow	54	328	377	872
                      Orange		45	101	62	220
                      David		29	198	260	511
                      Sean		4	4	24	32
                      darkghost	2	23	79	129
                      Willie Bee	0	29	250	306
                      Brick Tamland	0	12	43	90
                      Ira Wilton	0	5	5	12
                      natrass		0	2	6	10
                      cooljh		0	0	1	2
                      InSpades	0	0	1	2
                      Total		8,192	8,192	8,192
                      Comment
                      • imgv94
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 11-16-05
                        • 17192

                        #12
                        Hey still anyones game?
                        Comment
                        • ganchrow
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 08-28-05
                          • 5011

                          #13
                          After tonight's games:

                          Code:
                          Player     	1st	2nd	3rd	Any
                          ---------------------------------------------				
                          sportsfun	345	216	172	753
                          Illusion	319	348	362	1,082
                          pags11  	283	250	169	724
                          stump   	243	116	79	463
                          bookie  	214	130	127	509
                          kdmfox  	148	46	89	295
                          imgv94  	144	58	109	324
                          goldengoat	92	22	72	192
                          JDK192  	84	133	103	349
                          ganchrow	54	216	152	459
                          xxx     	36	85	148	292
                          Jonathan	31	49	60	160
                          5teamparlay	24	14	7	48
                          goldseeker	15	94	109	242
                          David   	13	99	152	278
                          Orange  	5	29	15	49
                          dog     	0	72	15	88
                          mrmookie	0	63	46	114
                          Willie Bee	0	8	56	76
                          Pingman60	0	0	7	14
                          cooljh  	0	0	1	2
                          Total      	2,048	2,048	2,048
                          Comment
                          • pags11
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 08-18-05
                            • 12264

                            #14
                            what a night of games!...
                            Comment
                            • BigDaddy
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 02-01-06
                              • 8378

                              #15
                              Wow i fell of the list!
                              Comment
                              • ganchrow
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 08-28-05
                                • 5011

                                #16
                                More exceedingly rough estimates of those players most likely (5% or greater probability) to finish in the money in the NCAA tournament. Ties for all places are considered fractionally.

                                Code:
                                Exactly 1st place:
                                Illusion	21%
                                pags11    	20%
                                sportsfun	17%
                                stump     	10%
                                bookie     	8%
                                kdmfox    	7%
                                imgv94    	6%
                                
                                
                                Exactly 2nd place:
                                Illusion	20%
                                pags11    	16%
                                sportsfun	9%
                                ganchrow	8%
                                David      	7%
                                bookie     	6%
                                JDK192    	5%
                                
                                
                                Exactly 3rd place:
                                Illusion	21%
                                ganchrow	10%
                                pags11    	9%
                                David      	9%
                                xxx         	7%
                                sportsfun	6%
                                imgv94    	6%
                                goldseeker	6%
                                bookie     	6%
                                Comment
                                • pags11
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 08-18-05
                                  • 12264

                                  #17
                                  survive and advance...
                                  Comment
                                  • imgv94
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 11-16-05
                                    • 17192

                                    #18
                                    Thats interesting cause there is alot of people ahead of me and
                                    there names are not on that list? Cool! Congrats to pags and
                                    Illusion!! Those are my buds! I knew that would make a game out
                                    of it! I thought I was dead. At least I still have an iv in my vein!
                                    Comment
                                    • pags11
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 08-18-05
                                      • 12264

                                      #19
                                      let's keep truckin' imgv...
                                      Comment
                                      • ganchrow
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 08-28-05
                                        • 5011

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by imgv94
                                        Thats interesting cause there is alot of people ahead of me and there names are not on that list? I knew that would make a game out of it! I thought I was dead. At least I still have an iv in my vein!
                                        You're the only person to have picked UCLA to go to the tournament finals. If UCLA does manage to make it that far, and if Villanova also comes through over BC, you'd be assured an in the money finish and would be the favorite to finish first. Otherwise, you're mathematically eliminated.
                                        Last edited by Ganchrow; 03-24-06, 06:31 AM. Reason: Added Villanova -- actually there's still a tiny chance of a third place finish just as long as Villanova wins over BC
                                        Comment
                                        • imgv94
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 11-16-05
                                          • 17192

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by ganchrow
                                          You're the only person to have picked UCLA to go to the tournament finals. If UCLA does manage to make it that far, your prospects would be excellent. If not, you'd have next to no chance of an in the money finish.
                                          Thank you ganchrow!!! Your the best man! Thanks
                                          to J.P Bautista also!!
                                          Comment
                                          • JoshW
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 08-10-05
                                            • 3431

                                            #22
                                            Very cool ganchrow, no one else has potential contest outcome results so detailed.
                                            Comment
                                            • ganchrow
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 08-28-05
                                              • 5011

                                              #23
                                              After toinight's early games:
                                              Code:
                                              Player		1st	2nd	3rd	Any
                                              ---------------------------------------------					
                                              sportsfun	139	71	77	296	
                                              pags11  	127	69	41	249	
                                              imgv94  	80	29	22	131	
                                              stump   	50	20	10	85	
                                              goldengoat	46	11	36	96	
                                              ganchrow	27	114	83	252	
                                              bookie  	22	29	31	89	
                                              5teamparlay	12	7	4	24	
                                              goldseeker	7	54	57	125	
                                              David   	2	18	13	42	
                                              dog     	0	36	8	44	
                                              JDK192  	0	32	30	72	
                                              Illusion	0	14	52	92	
                                              Orange  	0	9	4	13	
                                              xxx     	0	0	33	33	
                                              Jonathan	0	0	4	8	
                                              Pingman60	0	0	4	8	
                                              Willie Bee	0	0	4	8	
                                              cooljh  	0	0	1	1	
                                              Total      	512	512	512
                                              Comment
                                              • ganchrow
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 08-28-05
                                                • 5011

                                                #24
                                                After tonight:

                                                Code:
                                                Player		1st	2nd	3rd	Any
                                                ---------------------------------------------					
                                                pags11  	53	25	7	85	
                                                sportsfun	35	20	16	71	
                                                imgv94  	12	15	7	34	
                                                goldengoat	12	6	6	24	
                                                ganchrow	10	18	34	69	
                                                stump   	4	3	3	10	
                                                goldseeker	2	10	13	26	
                                                bookie  	0	12	8	20	
                                                dog     	0	8	4	12	
                                                Illusion	0	5	20	32	
                                                Orange  	0	3	2	5	
                                                JDK192  	0	2	7	10	
                                                5teamparlay	0	1	1	2	
                                                David   	0	0	1	1	
                                                Total        	128	128	128
                                                Comment
                                                • imgv94
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 11-16-05
                                                  • 17192

                                                  #25
                                                  Ganchrow thanks alot bro! U are the best!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • ganchrow
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 08-28-05
                                                    • 5011

                                                    #26
                                                    Scenario by scenario breakdown.
                                                    Attached Files
                                                    Comment
                                                    • pags11
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 08-18-05
                                                      • 12264

                                                      #27
                                                      awesome stuff ganchrow...
                                                      Comment
                                                      • ganchrow
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 08-28-05
                                                        • 5011

                                                        #28
                                                        Approximate expected values for remaining:
                                                        Code:
                                                        pags11		$364.30
                                                        sportsfun	$192.68
                                                        ganchrow	 $98.62
                                                        Illusion	 $76.03
                                                        goldseeker	 $73.67
                                                        imgv94		 $68.74
                                                        goldengoat	 $36.70
                                                        bookie		 $34.49
                                                        stump		 $16.63
                                                        dog		 $12.42
                                                        JDK192		 $10.69
                                                        David		  $7.69
                                                        Orange		  $6.24
                                                        5teamparlay	  $1.10
                                                        Comment
                                                        • ganchrow
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 08-28-05
                                                          • 5011

                                                          #29
                                                          Analysis of remaining 1st place scenarios (number in parens refers to number of winning scenarios):

                                                          Florida & UCLA regional finals victories
                                                          stump (2) wins 1st place if George Mason win DC region and Texas wins nat championship,
                                                          pags (30) otherwise

                                                          Florida & Memphis regional finals victories
                                                          [pags and sportsfun] (6) tie for first if Memphis loses to Florida or George Mason in national championship, otherwise
                                                          pags (18) wins 1st unless Memphis wins national championship, in which case
                                                          sportsfun (8)

                                                          Villanova & Memphis regional finals victories
                                                          sportsfun (24) wins 1st unless U Conn or Nova wins championship or
                                                          sportsfun wins 1st if Nova beats Memphis in finals,
                                                          pags (2) wins 1st if Memphis loses in nat semis and U Conn wins championship,
                                                          goldseeker (2) wins 1st if Memphis loses to U Conn in championship,
                                                          goldengoat (4) otherwise

                                                          Villanova & UCLA regional finals victories

                                                          UCLA wins national semis

                                                          imgv (12) wins 1st unless Nova wins championship, in which case
                                                          goldengoat (4)

                                                          UCLA does not win national semis

                                                          stump (2) wins 1st if Mason wins DC region and Texas wins championship,
                                                          goldengoat (4) wins 1st if Nova wins championship,
                                                          ganchrow (10) otherwise
                                                          Last edited by Ganchrow; 03-25-06, 03:55 AM.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • bigboydan
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 08-10-05
                                                            • 55420

                                                            #30
                                                            i must say, thats some perty interesting scenarios ganchrow.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • pags11
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 08-18-05
                                                              • 12264

                                                              #31
                                                              survive and advance...
                                                              Comment
                                                              • ganchrow
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 08-28-05
                                                                • 5011

                                                                #32
                                                                After tonight:
                                                                Code:
                                                                Player		1st	2nd	3rd	Any
                                                                ---------------------------------------------					
                                                                pags11  	16	0	1	17	
                                                                imgv94  	6	7	4	17	
                                                                ganchrow	6	6	16	28	
                                                                goldengoat	4	2	2	8	
                                                                bookie  	0	11	3	14	
                                                                dog     	0	4	0	4	
                                                                Orange  	0	2	0	2	
                                                                sportsfun	0	0	6	6	
                                                                Total       	32	32	32
                                                                Comment
                                                                • pags11
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 08-18-05
                                                                  • 12264

                                                                  #33
                                                                  congrats to those that had UCLA...
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Mudcat
                                                                    Restricted User
                                                                    • 07-21-05
                                                                    • 9287

                                                                    #34
                                                                    You are an analyzin' maniac, ganchrow!

                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • SBR_John
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 07-12-05
                                                                      • 16471

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Damn... thats impressive. That would take me two weeks to figure out.
                                                                      Comment
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