OKC ML +225 in game 1 seems like a very good bet to me.

[No coincidences]

okay i give up. dallas is a lock in game 1. game wont even be played.

I don't know what to think here, because I can see Dallas coming out a little rusty. They're clearly the better team, though, with the better coach and the biggest mismatch on the court.

I like the Thunder for the most part, but I'm not a fan of Westbrook at the point or Brooks as a coach. Thunder lost by 8 and 10 on their home court to Dallas during the regular season; their only win came when Dirk was sidelined. Plus, Westbrook played like garbage vs. DAL in all three games.

[tonyp0387]

Thunder win this game by double digits imo.

[tripp]

I like the mavs here

[suicidekings]

I just don't see how this team matches up well with Dallas.

Coaching is a total mismatch here, too.

Exactly. No matter how I look at this series, from individual matchups to team strategy, I can't see how the Thunder are going to beat the Mavs. For me, the biggest issue is the Thunder's halfcourt. The Mavs are going to slow the pace of the games down to control them. Chandler is going to dominate the interior in this series vs Perkins, and the Mavs have been really great so far in bringing the help defense in when the opponent drives into the paint. This is going to force the Thunder into making jumpshots and that will not go well for them.

At the other end, the Mavs execute the halfcourt offense to perfection when Kidd is out there, making extra passes as needed. When it's Barea at PG, the energy he brings and the constant movement of the team gives even a disciplined defense troubles. If Conley and Mayo could drive on the Thunder defense, I really don't see what's going to stop Terry/Barea.

[forzuto13]

Dallas will win this one but if you want to play the "rusty" angle then I'd go Okl City first Q or first half.

[BigDofBA]

Coming from a huge Thunder fan that has followed the team ever since they arrived here, I feel Dallas wins in 6. That being said, I feel like OKC's best chance to steal one will be in game 1.

I read a stat that teams coming off of this big if a lay off in the postseason are 9-9.

OKC wins game 1. Dallas wins games 2 and 3. OKC wins a depression game in game 4 at home. Dallas wins the next two to close out the series.

That's kind of how I see it going but what do I know. I hope OKC wins and I am wrong.

With that said, I find it quite funny that everyone was down on Dallas coming into the playoffs, and now people talk about them like they are world beaters.

[suicidekings]

okay i give up. dallas is a lock in game 1. game wont even be played.

What are the matchup issues you keep mentioning? You never really said where you think the Thunder have the advantage aside from the momentum vs Dallas' rust.

[No coincidences]

Coming from a huge Thunder fan that has followed the team ever since they arrived here, I feel Dallas wins in 6. That being said, I feel like OKC's best chance to steal one will be in game 1.

I read a stat that teams coming off of this big if a nay off in the postseason are 9-9.

OKC wins game 1. Dallas wins games 2 and 3. OKC wins a depression game in game 4 at home. Dallas wins the next two to close out the series.

That's kind of how I see it going but what do I know.

I'd love to see OKC steal Game 1 -- you'd get a tasty series price in favor of Dallas if that happens.

[ShogunRua]

I think the Mavs win this series in 6...but I hope all this analysis doesn't jinx it. OKC can DEFINITELY win the series. They don't match up well with the Mavs at all (imo) but they are mostly a jump shooting team. I would argue that they play much better when they get penetration, but that just isn't what happens a majority of their games. If they are hitting more jump shots than the Mavs on a consistent basis....they will win.

I think the main factor in this series is going to be Westbrook. If he played like he played in the Memphis series, the Thunder are done. He can't be inconsistent. If you watch the last few moments of the close games the Thunder lost, he was an absolute liability.

[No coincidences]

What are the matchup issues you keep mentioning? You never really said where you think the Thunder have the advantage aside from the momentum vs Dallas' rust.

Who guards Durant?

[BigDofBA]

Dallas has owned OKC more than team in the league has.

Hopefully that changes but I don't see it. Either way, the Thunder have had a great run this year with such a young team and the future looks bright.

[No coincidences]

Dallas has owned OKC more than team in the league.

Hopefully that changes.

I agree with your assessment. If the Thunder are going to steal a game, this may be it. I just don't see them seriously contending in this series, though.

[BigDofBA]

Exactly. If you're going to tak the Thunder in this series do it games 1 and 4.

OKC will win at least one at home but I feel like Dallas will take games 2 and 3 "if" they drop the first one bc they will put everything Into regaining homecourt in game 3 and then relax a bit in game 4.

It's human nature to go into the series with a mindset of splitting on the road and holding serve at home.

[suicidekings]

Who guards Durant?

Marion will be on Durant for the most part. Durant will still score 25, but inefficiently. Marion will stay with him and force most of those points to come from the midrange. He's has done a great job this year of guarding without fouling (only 5 out of 90 games this season with 4+ fouls, including the playoffs, while averaging 28+ minutes) and it will be a priority to keep Durant off the FT line.

[No coincidences]

Marion will be on Durant for the most part. Durant will still score 25, but inefficiently. Marion will stay with him and force most of those points to come from the midrange. He's has done a great job this year of guarding without fouling (only 5 out of 90 games this season with 4+ fouls, including the playoffs, while averaging 28+ minutes) and it will be a priority to keep Durant off the FT line.

Fair enough. I think the Thunder have a mismatch with Durant, but the Mavs have a bigger mismatch with Dirk.

I don't know how anyone can accurately predict what we'll see from Dallas tomorrow, frankly. They're coming off a huge series win and they've been off for over a week. They might come out on fire to prove a point, or it may take a while to shake off the rust. I wouldn't be surprised either way.

[suicidekings]

I don't know how anyone can accurately predict what we'll see from Dallas tomorrow, frankly. They're coming off a huge series win and they've been off for over a week. They might come out on fire to prove a point, or it may take a while to shake off the rust. I wouldn't be surprised either way.

So take away the rust argument, and let's talk general case scenario. How do the Thunder beat the Mavs?

[vincanity15]

Apart from the rust aspect i dont see how dallas loses this one.

[No coincidences]

So take away the rust argument, and let's talk general case scenario. How do the Thunder beat the Mavs?

A lot of it hinges on Westbrook. When he's playing under control and not pouting, he's incredibly dangerous and could potentially be a big problem for Dallas. I haven't seen that Westbrook much in these playoffs, though.

Where do the Thunder rank in 3-pt D? They'll need to get in the face of Terry and Peja, who were basically ignored by the Lakers. I also think OKC has a little bit of an advantage underneath and on the glass with Ibaka and Perkins vs. Haywood. Lakers choked by not pounding the ball down low enough and exploiting Dallas' lack of a stud big (Chandler's underrated but not overly physical; Haywood is sub-par).

[Fang-Banger]

I agree. Rested Dallas will not be at gamespeed. Thunder takes this one

[Wreckloose]

Not a bad thought. I'd like to see OKC run some semblance of an offense in crunch time one of these games though.

[No coincidences]

Not a bad thought. I'd like to see OKC run some semblance of an offense in crunch time one of these games though.

I wouldn't hold my breath.

[Balco10]

Dallas is the better team with more depth, and well rested but,
I like the Thunder +8.5 in this first game. Dallas has not played
in two weeks. They have to be rusty as the Thunder are fresh
and have the best player on the floor.

[suicidekings]

A lot of it hinges on Westbrook. When he's playing under control and not pouting, he's incredibly dangerous and could potentially be a big problem for Dallas. I haven't seen that Westbrook much in these playoffs, though.

Where do the Thunder rank in 3-pt D? They'll need to get in the face of Terry and Peja, who were basically ignored by the Lakers. I also think OKC has a little bit of an advantage underneath and on the glass with Ibaka and Perkins vs. Haywood. Lakers choked by not pounding the ball down low enough and exploiting Dallas' lack of a stud big (Chandler's underrated but not overly physical; Haywood is sub-par).

Thunder have decent 3pt D. Not outstanding. The Lakers didn't ignore Peja/Terry. The Mavs' passing was just excellent around the perimeter and the Lakers didn't have the ability to rotate with the ball movement, mixing in the drive and kick from Barea/Terry to keep them off balance. The Mavs like to put Dirk/Peja/Terry/Barea/Kidd on the floor at times together in the 2H and keep them all in motion so they have 5 guys on the floor moving all the time that can hit 3pt shots and 2 of them that are very effective at slashing into any gaps that the movement creates inside. Tough to defend.

[JR007]

Can Kidd keep up with Westbrook ?????...one of the keys...maybe

[twelvejewelz]

I think you guys may be over thinking this "rusty" thing... These guys are professional athletes its not like there sitting on their ass 24/7 drinking beer and eating chips.. They still practice daily and if anything the game rest is better for them to practice, find their spots on the court, look over tapes and pick apart okc...

[aireent777]

Mavs rusty? Are you kidding me? These are professional athletes. They are paid millions to do this kind of work and to top it all Mavs have been waiting for 5 years for this, they've reached the WCF and will be rusty in game 1 in their own floor?? Please don't kid yourself.

[MrXYZ]

Mavs spent all this time practising on their home court, so their shooting won't be rusty at all.

[JMUplayer]

OKC is terrible on the road....i think game one will be close but mavs will win by 4-6

[jjgold]

I took them at +6

[BettingWizard]

OKC is terrible on the road...

[TheAntFather]

I took them at +6

Funny before the playoffs started everyone was on Portland to beat Dallas. Now Dallas is the class of the NBA? People forget how Dirk collapsed against the Heat in 2006 leading 2-0 and had a huge lead in Game 3 and still lost the series.

I don't know if that applies to this series, but I don't think the Mavs run over the Thunder like everyone thinks they are. After all, Kidd was guarding probably the 2 slowest PG's in Andre Miller 1st Rd and Derek Fisher 2nd Rd.

[thebestthereis]

Mavs spent all this time practising on their home court, so their shooting won't be rusty at all.

I can hit 90% from the free throw line and 40% from the 3 point line in practice and in non game situations. Not playing real game scenarios for 8 days in the NBA is significant. If u don't think so you have no idea what your doing or have never played sports.

[qukubau]

i think oklahoma can win tonight.

[Elevated]

So many mixed opinions where's the real value at here? OKC or DAL?

[No coincidences]

Thunder have decent 3pt D. Not outstanding. The Lakers didn't ignore Peja/Terry. The Mavs' passing was just excellent around the perimeter and the Lakers didn't have the ability to rotate with the ball movement, mixing in the drive and kick from Barea/Terry to keep them off balance. The Mavs like to put Dirk/Peja/Terry/Barea/Kidd on the floor at times together in the 2H and keep them all in motion so they have 5 guys on the floor moving all the time that can hit 3pt shots and 2 of them that are very effective at slashing into any gaps that the movement creates inside. Tough to defend.

OK, but let's not sugarcoat things: the Lakers' perimeter D was atrocious this year.