+EV .. for you rookies

[rfr3sh]

Ok I get very frustrated here when people say a +ev wager is anything that is +100 and up
+EV stands for Positive Expected Value. A bet at +130 can be -EV i know shocking right..

a bet that wins 60% of the time at +100 is +EV

a bet that wins 50% of the time at -110 is -EV

now please use the term correctly

so in general, every line, -110, -120, +130 + 140 all can be translated to a probability (or break even point) if your bet wins more then that point, it is a good bet otherwise it is not

[Cinquefoil]

Brilliant!

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

I feel like I'm in school again, thanks

[Ninersnut]

+ev post

[VegasInsider]

good post. it's amazing that people gamble and don't know the most basic of terms in math

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Refresh, could you just confirm this for me since you are the teacher today.

Man U at my book is pk,-.5 -103

Let's say I put $103 to win $100 on this. I understand if Man U wins by 1+ goals I win the full $100..but lets say they draw does that mean I lose half my wager which would be -$51.50, correct? And if Man U loses by any result I lose the full $103, correct?

I usually just play ML, draws and the total so I just want to make sure I completely understand what I'm getting myself into.

[rfr3sh]

added one more line in general terms

[rfr3sh]

Refresh, could you just confirm this for me since you are the teacher today. Man U at my book is pk,-.5 -103 Let's say I put $103 to win $100 on this. I understand if Man U wins by 1+ goals I win the full $100..but lets say they draw does that mean I lose half my wager which would be -$51.50, correct? And if Man U loses by any result I lose the full $103, correct?

this is the same as putting 51.5$ on pk and 51.5$ on -.5

So yes you are correct if they draw you lose half
win you win 100
lose you lose 103

[rfr3sh]

---

[jjgold]

You guys think it is that easy??

I swear if we have a function and the sbr posters go I say 90% of cars are at least 10 years old or more
Many will have dents and some will have plastic bags to cover windows that broke .

[rfr3sh]

You guys think it is that easy?? I swear if we have a function and the sbr posters go I say 90% of cars are at least 10 years old or more Many will have dents and some will have plastic bags to cover windows that broke .

The problem being able to calculate what the fair price is
this is why capping is useless..just follow the money and make +EV bets according to the market
like if arizona was to start right now. booking it at SIA is +EV at +120 when the market price is like +113



also i drive a 2010 subaru imprezza tough guy

[cant call it]

Hows them scuffs healing up fresh?

[JerseyLove]

What abOut camnewton?

[Dabeergod]

good post, and well said bud

[jjgold]

Yeh RFRSH your fukkin sharp

Although you failed to mention when bookmakers beat you up on your fukkin front lawn for not paying offgambling debts

[boeing power]

[quote=rfr3sh;9773137]The problem being able to calculate what the fair price is
this is why capping is useless..just follow the money and make +EV bets according to the market
like if arizona was to start right now. booking it at SIA is +EV at +120 when the market price is like +113




hom much do think you need to beat the closing line to be +ev?

example of a pinnacle line

mets+105
nats -115

assume this is the closing line, is mets +110+EV and nats -110 +EV

[RudyRuetigger]

the key is to maximize expected growth

[Doc JS]

the key is to maximize expected growth

I write for Viagra every day for just this reason, Rudy!

Doc

[rfr3sh]

[QUOTE=boeing power;9773545]

The problem being able to calculate what the fair price is
this is why capping is useless..just follow the money and make +EV bets according to the market
like if arizona was to start right now. booking it at SIA is +EV at +120 when the market price is like +113




hom much do think you need to beat the closing line to be +ev?

example of a pinnacle line

mets+105
nats -115

assume this is the closing line, is mets +110+EV and nats -110 +EV

Well yes you have to calculate the no vig line but didn't want to get into that... Generally you want to try and have a 3% edge I'd say but making any +ev bet works

[bbenson011]

lol noobs...thanks for the clarification bro

[King Mayan]

Yeh RFRSH your fukkin sharp

Although you failed to mention when bookmakers beat you up on your fukkin front lawn for not paying offgambling debts

[jgilmartin]

This is from another thread.

EV = (P[win] * amount to win) - (P[loss] * amount wagered)

Example:
Your projections show a 55% chance that a team will win a game in the NBA, which would correspond with a theoretical ML of about -130 (-1.5 fave), but the line opens up showing that team as a PK with a corresponding ML of -110.

EV = (0.55 * $100) - (0.45 * $110) = $5.50

Placing a wager at -110 when you feel it should be -130 means you're getting a better deal. To take advantage of this, you would need to project lines for each game and compare them to the opening lines. When you see discrepancies between your lines and the opening lines, there may be an opportunity to profit. However, this depends heavily on your ability to produce quality lines for games. If your work is off, you'll see a lot of "opportunities" that could lose you a lot of money.

Conversely, if you wagered on a team at -130 when it's true value was closer to -110 (a PK, with a 50% chance of winning), then:

EV = (0.50 * 100) - (0.50 * -130) = -$15

It's like buying anything.. You can buy the same product (probability of winning) at different places and different times (ie: For $25 at one store, or for $15 at a different one). You'll be happy with the product 80% of the time no matter where you buy it, but when it does fail you (1 out of 5 times), you're out more money if you bought it at the first place instead of the second.

Actually, his math a little bit confusing in the second example. It really should say:

Conversely, if you wagered on a team at -130 when it's true value was closer to +100 (50% chance of winning), then:

[rfr3sh]

I am healed you ***** also debts paid off

[jjgold]

I am healed you ***** also debts paid off

you barreled in hamburger

[fishmonger]

wouldn't a bet that hits 51% of the time at +100 be +EV? I mean if we want to be technical.

[Blax0r]

wouldn't a bet that hits 51% of the time at +100 be +EV? I mean if we want to be technical.

yes, basically anytime pr(win)*(payoff) is greater than pr(loss)*(bet amount) is +EV.

[Inkwell77]

I dig

[rfr3sh]

wouldn't a bet that hits 51% of the time at +100 be +EV? I mean if we want to be technical.

Yes very slightly ev but it still is

[TR88]

You guys think it is that easy??

I swear if we have a function and the sbr posters go I say 90% of cars are at least 10 years old or more
Many will have dents and some will have plastic bags to cover windows that broke .

[rfr3sh]

Lol who said it was easy

[ApricotSinner32]

good post. it's amazing that people gamble and don't know the most basic of terms in math

Vegas this is funny for a guy who was claiming that the right side is always the winning side regardless of the line.

[jjgold]

now look who started this threada guy that got pounded by two bookmakers on his front lawn

RFR your killing me here