Serious Question For Baseball Sharps

[ttrace35]

How important is team dominance over another team?

Example: Cincinnati Reds haven't been playing well. Bronson Arroyo has been pitching like shit lately. On the other hand. Milwaukee Brewers have been on a tear lately and playing good baseball. But for some reason cincinnati owns milwaukee and so does bronson arroyo. Sure enough Cincinnati jumps out to a 7-0 lead.

Question is, should I pay more attention to a teams dominance more, next time around? Instead of how the teams are currently playing?

[iceminers26]

I'm not an MLB sharp but will give you my opinion on the topic as a Pirates' fan, there has to be something to it because everytime the Brewers play the Pirates they pretty much win.

[Bcatswin]

Quick note for you ttrace, if Arroyo gets through 1 more inning with out any runs scored it will be his 4th quality start this year making him 2nd in the NL only behind Josh Johnson.

[ttrace35]

Quick note for you ttrace, if Arroyo gets through 1 more inning with out any runs scored it will be his 4th quality start this year making him 2nd in the NL only behind Josh Johnson.

That's kool but isn't he coming off 2 bad start in a row? And that quality start stat is horeshit and you know it.

[EDDIE MONEY LINE]

good question...i like to focus on matchups. So yes, if a team has had success over another consistently then you need to use that as a factor in any sport. Certain picthers pitch better against certain teams and lineups and hitters therefore confidence will be higher. Its not always an absolute as nothing is in this game, but certainly always something to consider. The way a team matches up with another team should definitely be a factor tho...players, tempo, style and philosophies are other considerations.

[Bcatswin]

Quality starts are BS if you have a bad bullpen and crappy Offense which the Reds dont. There Bpen has been a little rough so far but it will even out. Sorry man just trying to give you a little pointer.

[ApricotSinner32]

Means absolutely nothing. Short term variance

[ttrace35]

Quality starts are BS if you have a bad bullpen and crappy Offense which the Reds dont. There Bpen has been a little rough so far but it will even out. Sorry man just trying to give you a little pointer.

Didn't mean to come off like that. I appreciate your opinion. I just hate that stat when I hear it. Arroyo has given up like 10 runs in last last 8 innings(last two starts)? Milwaukee was hot on offense. I went with milwaukee tt over 4 1/2.

[ttrace35]

Finally Arroyo is out. A hit here plates 2. C'mon.

[unusialsusp5]

good luck paying double juice on those run lines...it will croak you...

[Smoke]

Dominace means alot..

Always use it as an angle in baseball

[ttrace35]

good luck paying double juice on those run lines...it will croak you...

Explain yourself

[Grinder12000]

Oddly this was a game where I felt the Reds could "wake up" - Brewers maybe a little over confident and so forth. But I bet Brewers. Still - the Reds only had one real inning! It was all Arroyo! He's tough vs, Brewers!

Run lines are pretty much sucker bets!

[LLXC]

Means absolutely nothing. Short term variance

I have to agree with this. In my model, I do not factor in how team A has matched up against team B. I do care, of course, how team A starting pitcher has pitched against players on team B.

[Sawyer]

Some pitchers own some teams. Like Oswalt. He owns Reds..

And Norris owns Cardinals, lol.

[kirbypuckett]

I have to agree with this. In my model, I do not factor in how team A has matched up against team B. I do care, of course, how team A starting pitcher has pitched against players on team B.

This is how i approach bases as well.

[MadTiger]

I'm not an MLB sharp but will give you my opinion on the topic as a Pirates' fan, there has to be something to it because everytime the ________ play the Pirates they pretty much win.

Made your post more accurate. And re-usable.

But back to the topic: it's hard to say at what point does the historical match-up trend overtake the current W-L trend for a team. When it's the scheduled pitcher, I can't hate you for pulling the trigger. But not just the team against team, because rosters change so often.

[thebestthereis]

the reds do nothing but clobber lefties, i saw the matchup and to me in this game the reds +120 is a bet every time in this scenario. arroyo is good enough to be in every game he pitches most of the time. its funny because people will bet the reds -180 at home but when they are +odds they are afraid in a situation/matchup they thrive in.

[3PtShooter]

french toast bacon coffee

[ttrace35]

french toast bacon coffee

Just weed and coffee for me.

[ttrace35]

Thanx for the help fellas. The main thing I learned from this thread is that it is probably more important to pay attention to pitcher/team match-ups.

[jorge1]

I agree with u. Many people let a high price dictate their view of a game. If cincy was in this same game priced at -125 or something lottttssss of ppl wouldve said that is sooo cheap.

Cincy should be favored in almost all games they play and don't shy away just cuz they aren't.

To answer the thread question I particularly look at prices and see what the lines look like for the matchup.

The lines on this one said OVER for me. Immediately. And if it would be a shootout then I pick the dog everytime. Specially if cincy is the dog.

Do u factor past matchups? Well to be honest I personally don't cap games like that. If u come by my thread THE SYSTEM you will see what I mean. odds have everything factored into them. Along with a lil public perception on top of it. Its up to us to decode the lines.

This line for example said that cincy are dogs bec of a brief slump. However the ml rl differential was kinda funky. The rl was paying a lot for mil. More than the usual at the given game total. So what are they saying? That mil wasn't expected to win by many runs.

Then u look at tt and u had like 4 mil and 3.5 cin with a total of 8.5. Usually of u add the tt they should add to within half a pt of the total. So why wouldn't they make mil 4.5 and cin 3.5? Bec of the stats which suggest run diff wuldnt be as large.

So wh make cincy a dog? To cause confusion. Shouldve been a sharper line at -105 or so for cincy imo.

[ttrace35]

Didn't mean to come off like that. I appreciate your opinion. I just hate that stat when I hear it. Arroyo has given up like 10 runs in last last 8 innings(last two starts)? Milwaukee was hot on offense. I went with milwaukee tt over 4 1/2.

Maybe these team totals are sucker bets. But I been having success with them. Even though the game was nothing like I expected, I still won the milwaukee over. 4 1/2.

[jorge1]

Tt aren't sucker bets. They can make u or break u though. I've had success with some teams like betting houston under tt for years. Its good!

[ttrace35]

Tt aren't sucker bets. They can make u or break u though. I've had success with some teams like betting houston under tt for years. Its good!

That's funny, because I have 2 houston over wins the past 2 weeks. Vegas always has them o/u 3.

[LineKrusher]

Totals are the worst play out there. Don't waste you hard "earned" $$.

[blackbart]

consider everything, basebaall is all about value

[Whippit]

dominance is everthing, not just in sports but in life