This is as close to a LOCK as you can get. (March Madness)

**yisman** · 03-14-11, 03:45 PM

What book?

**d2bets** · 03-14-11, 03:48 PM

Not a good bet. You need there to be less than a 17% chance. I think if you aggregate the true odds on those 4 teams collectively it's going to add up to more than that by a significant amount. I've got it at 21%. I'd bet this at -380 or better only.

**k13** · 03-14-11, 03:49 PM

Pinny

Its -575 now.....

**iceminers26** · 03-14-11, 03:54 PM

Originally posted by k13

Will a #2 Seed win the Tourney? No -490 Lot of juice but I actually think it has value. Only NC and ND have a small shot, at best.

SDSU

Draw N Col in opening round

Will get a Temple squad that won't be able to keep up with them in round 2.

Then if UCONN is still standing they get a tired UCONN squad playing their 8th game in 12 days. (Will be a lot tougher if they get Missouri here but still think they can get by Missouri).

Then comes the big one against Duke, who is very beatable.

Final Four - Anything can happen.

Not saying SDSU is going to win it all, but wouldn't count them out as a 2 that doesn't have any shot... actually have the best shot of the 2s IMO.

**cbiscuit** · 03-14-11, 03:55 PM

The #2 seeds are sub-par this year. ND has best shot, SanD will have to be far better than everyone thinks while NC and Fla have zero chance. Maybe odds are not where they should be but I think it's pretty safe.

**Ice House** · 03-14-11, 03:56 PM

Damn that is a lock!!! Normally I hate the lock word but if I had 20,000 I would put it on that.

**Ice House** · 03-14-11, 03:57 PM

I wish the Greek offered that. Whoever owns the Greek must be Jewish.

**Ice House** · 03-14-11, 03:58 PM

Is Pinny a reliable sportsbook? Do they offer first time sign up bonuses etc...??? anyone ever done a payout from the Pinny was it swift and easy???

**canepole** · 03-14-11, 03:59 PM

agree

**yisman** · 03-14-11, 04:00 PM

Originally posted by Ice House

Is Pinny a reliable sportsbook?

Yes

Do they offer first time sign up bonuses etc...??? anyone ever done a payout from the Pinny was it swift and easy???

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/reviews/

Also see member polls, rating Pinnacle at the pinnacle of the offshore industry.

They do not cater to Americans.

**Ice House** · 03-14-11, 04:01 PM

There is absolutely no ******* way a #2 seed wins this tourny.

**Ice House** · 03-14-11, 04:01 PM

oh okay so no Americans allowed?

**Ice House** · 03-14-11, 04:02 PM

they must figure us Americans know our sports

**k13** · 03-14-11, 04:05 PM

Originally posted by iceminers26

SDSU

Draw N Col in opening round

Will get a Temple squad that won't be able to keep up with them in round 2.

Then if UCONN is still standing they get a tired UCONN squad playing their 8th game in 12 days. (Will be a lot tougher if they get Missouri here but still think they can get by Missouri).

Then comes the big one against Duke, who is very beatable.

Final Four - Anything can happen.

Not saying SDSU is going to win it all, but wouldn't count them out as a 2 that doesn't have any shot... actually have the best shot of the 2s IMO.

How many "mid-majors" how won the last 20 years?

If SDSU makes the final somehow you can always do a desperate hedge.

**cbiscuit** · 03-14-11, 04:21 PM

The #3 and #4 seeds have as good a shot as the #2s

**joe blow** · 03-14-11, 04:22 PM

Nothing is a lock

**rm18** · 03-14-11, 04:24 PM

Florida and SDSU are the stronger teams of the 4

**alexn** · 03-14-11, 04:59 PM

Originally posted by k13

How many "mid-majors" how won the last 20 years?

If SDSU makes the final somehow you can always do a desperate hedge.

The MWC has not been considered a mid-major for years now. The conference ranks higher than the Pac10 as well as the SEC... SDSU is not considered a mid-major team.

**BettingWizard** · 03-14-11, 05:01 PM

probably better value to bet under total wins for the 2 seeds........what's the number?

**gamble** · 03-14-11, 05:12 PM

wouldn't recommend playing this, anything can happen in the tournament, which is why you don't lay that kind of juice

**triqy** · 03-14-11, 05:39 PM

tricky bet to say the least. you never know whats going to happen in this tournament

**me-first** · 03-14-11, 07:31 PM

don't like this bet at all..

**beerman2619** · 03-14-11, 07:36 PM

not a bad bet i'm a heels fan they have no shot at winning this. San Diego St no shot along with Florida. Notre Dame could make a run though.

**k13** · 03-14-11, 07:38 PM

Someone bet into all that juice since the line moved.....

You have a lot of time to bail on a play like this if you know what you are doing.

Mind you, I rarely recommend taking such high odds.

Found the prop rather interesting though since everyone is so low on Florida, SDSU

**MartinBlank** · 03-14-11, 07:41 PM

This tournament is wide open.

Everyone is yapping about Ohio State and Kansas, but they are also beatable. In fact, Kansas was in this very spot last year. They were the #1 overall seed---were hot as any team in the country and lost to Northern Iowa in the second round.

Syracuse is going to give Ohio State fits if they meet. And North Carolina's front will also be a tough matchup for Ohio State.

I really think there are 12 teams this year that have a realistic shot at winning it all.

**milwaukee mike** · 03-14-11, 07:42 PM

Originally posted by gamble

wouldn't recommend playing this, anything can happen in the tournament, which is why you don't lay that kind of juice

keep in mind butler was about 1/4th of an inch away from winning the tournament last year.
i'm pretty sure some of you guys would've said there's no way butler would've made the final game and had a chance to win it (mid-major, 5 seed, etc)

i think each of those #2 seeds has around a 20-1 chance of winning so i don't see how you can lay over -500 on no.
i would be tempted to take the yes, gives you a lot of fun for the money if nothing else

**k13** · 03-14-11, 07:46 PM

For comparison...

Thu 3/17 Will a # 1 seed win the tournament ?

Yes -145
No +129

**k13** · 03-14-11, 07:53 PM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

keep in mind butler was about 1/4th of an inch away from winning the tournament last year.
i'm pretty sure some of you guys would've said there's no way butler would've made the final game and had a chance to win it (mid-major, 5 seed, etc)

i think each of those #2 seeds has around a 20-1 chance of winning so i don't see how you can lay over -500 on no.
i would be tempted to take the yes, gives you a lot of fun for the money if nothing else

What's -4000, -3600, -5400, -4400 in a parlay?

**Flight** · 03-14-11, 08:30 PM

The only proper way to attack this prop is with some math.

Compare the futures prices from several different sportsbooks of all 4 #2's and get the average market price for each future. Combine the futures together additively. At this point you could remove vig from the line (ie 5-1 (20%) is really 6-1 (16.7%)) or just leave it in and keep it in mind when you are finished. Now you have a line of, for example, 5-to-1 or 20% which gives you a moneyline of +/- 400.

Compare this to the price offered and you now have an estimate of your derivative's edge based on the market alone (not actually analyzing the teams themselves, which is perfectly acceptable if you accept that the futures prices are correct or at least reasonable).

EV on these props are usually between -5 and -10%. Occasionally you find a price that is off, at least based on the methods and heuristic you used. You can find EV of +5 to +15% or maybe higher.

So the range of EV is probably -10% to +10%.

That is not a lock and you will never win at gambling if you cannot do the above SIMPLE exercise in arithmetic.

**james4512** · 03-14-11, 08:36 PM

unc is way too young to win it all there really not that good, you will all see the acc is trash and they beat up on shitty teams. sdst is scary and i think they have a fairly easy brackett i mean their biggest challenge is going to be uconn imo

**k13** · 03-14-11, 08:48 PM

Originally posted by Flight

The only proper way to attack this prop is with some math.

Compare the futures prices from several different sportsbooks of all 4 #2's and get the average market price for each future. Combine the futures together additively. At this point you could remove vig from the line (ie 5-1 (20%) is really 6-1 (16.7%)) or just leave it in and keep it in mind when you are finished. Now you have a line of, for example, 5-to-1 or 20% which gives you a moneyline of +/- 400.

Compare this to the price offered and you now have an estimate of your derivative's edge based on the market alone (not actually analyzing the teams themselves, which is perfectly acceptable if you accept that the futures prices are correct or at least reasonable).

EV on these props are usually between -5 and -10%. Occasionally you find a price that is off, at least based on the methods and heuristic you used. You can find EV of +5 to +15% or maybe higher.

So the range of EV is probably -10% to +10%.

That is not a lock and you will never win at gambling if you cannot do the above SIMPLE exercise in arithmetic.

Yes, its true. What about calculating the opposite, odds for each team NOT winning individually?

Then multiply that in a parlay to get all four not winning at all.

**tylerguy02** · 03-14-11, 09:10 PM

GL, but way too much juice.

**rm18** · 03-15-11, 06:17 AM

Florida and SDSU have really solid and balanced as well as veteran teams

**dotheopposite** · 03-15-11, 08:13 AM

SDSU will be lucky to get to to the elite 8