Minimum plays to confirm I can hit 70%

**MadTiger** · 12-07-10, 07:55 PM

The academic answer is about 30 (Central Limit Theorem). The real world answer is you need several SEASONS to even begin to TRY to confirm anything.

**Cougar Bait** · 12-07-10, 07:57 PM

Hit 70% ATS over 300 plays. Then we can talk.

**Joe Sharp** · 12-07-10, 08:14 PM

Chances are you'll be around 55% after 100 plays and you'll have to start over.

**StackinGreen** · 12-07-10, 08:15 PM

forget

forget your claims for a second

I've no problem with skeptics, but what I would like to know is, along with my friends who are doubting as well, what MATH says

central limit theorem?

has anyone used the student's t-test?

**RudyRuetigger** · 12-07-10, 08:17 PM

**StackinGreen** · 12-07-10, 08:19 PM

I've done several seasons as well. Considering its more recent volatility, I've destroyed the NFL for the last 8 years, only with 1 year finishing with ROI under 1.

Obviously ROI is a route to follow someone, but these guys who challenged me (back) said I would be lucky to get 60% winners.

The problem is, it doesn't have to do with luck. That's why my pockets are phat as hell after last week.

I also know not to get overconfident (like in the upcoming week) after big weeks. Been there, done that.

**RudyRuetigger** · 12-07-10, 08:20 PM

take this shit to covers

**StackinGreen** · 12-07-10, 08:22 PM

Originally posted by Joe Sharp

Chances are you'll be around 55% after 100 plays and you'll have to start over.

I don't blame you for playing the odds, Joe. But you are wrong in this case.

Instance vs. experience my friend.

God knows there are a lot of blowhards here.

I'm being very disciplined with these picks. I'll give it 3 years if I have to.

The guys also allowed me to pick two games and tease them, having that count as a single "pick" even though it can be -120 or so

I'll admit I can't do it if after 50 even a subsequent 50-0 to make a total of 100 sample won't do it ... and I'll come back and post that I wasn't as good as I said/thought.

**gryfyn1** · 12-07-10, 08:23 PM

here we go again --

**StackinGreen** · 12-07-10, 08:23 PM

Rudy,

I'm not taking offense, but if you can't help with my first question, please don't bother posting and wasting all of our time.

**BeatTheJerk** · 12-07-10, 08:23 PM

Only 51 posts and you confirmed your a complete douche.

Bounce kid ...............

**BeatTheJerk** · 12-07-10, 08:24 PM

Pipe dream loser.

**StackinGreen** · 12-07-10, 08:25 PM

Because someone only posts 51 times he doesn't know anything? Quit being ignorant. Use logic or sense and then please post.

Unless you have a mathematical analysis method, please quit being the douche. I'm just asking how to track, that's all. You can believe what you want.

**BatemanPatrickl** · 12-07-10, 08:26 PM

Only thing you stack is brown and smells like...

**RudyRuetigger** · 12-07-10, 08:26 PM

Originally posted by StackinGreen

Rudy,

I'm not taking offense, but if you can't help with my first question, please don't bother posting and wasting all of our time.

when you spew utter BS like an ignorant child, you get treated like one.

go read the beginners forum

**StackinGreen** · 12-07-10, 08:26 PM

thanks

Originally posted by MadTiger

The academic answer is about 30 (Central Limit Theorem). The real world answer is you need several SEASONS to even begin to TRY to confirm anything.

Can you give me a few more details?

The termites have already come out. Trying to sift through them.

**BeatTheJerk** · 12-07-10, 08:29 PM

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

when you spew utter BS like an ignorant child, you get treated like one.

go read the beginners forum

+1.

**StackinGreen** · 12-07-10, 08:30 PM

Rudy, this is the last time I'm going to recognize your foolishness:

You have no idea about what's true or what's false ... or anything. You are guessing. Good for you. Now you are just being a troll and what's funnier is that you are spending time trying to talk down to someone who you know nothing about, which says a lot about your M.O.

Go back to making your loser plays. If I'm BS, you've already said so, so why persist? It's just lame and childish banter ...

**BeatTheJerk** · 12-07-10, 08:36 PM

Originally posted by StackinGreen

Rudy, this is the last time I'm going to recognize your foolishness:

You have no idea about what's true or what's false ... or anything. You are guessing. Good for you. Now you are just being a troll and what's funnier is that you are spending time trying to talk down to someone who you know nothing about, which says a lot about your M.O.

Go back to making your loser plays. If I'm BS, you've already said so, so why persist? It's just lame and childish banter ...

Look pal on behalf of myself and the others that bash you. We know from experience that hitting 70% even through like a minimum of 100 is almost near to impossible and you are not the next golden boy to become this rare commodity. BTW a 100 plays is a small sample size even if you do accomplish this.

**james4512** · 12-07-10, 08:42 PM

bears -3 was up for literally 3 hours

**milwaukee mike** · 12-07-10, 08:42 PM

here we go again

only about the 1000'th guy here that can hit 70% winners

if you can really hit 70% then quit wasting your time here, just cash your tickets and be happy

you obviously are trying to convince yourself more than you are trying to convince the forum

**brxbmbers42** · 12-07-10, 08:46 PM

no chance you are better than 47% after 100 plays

**DeluxeLiner** · 12-07-10, 08:47 PM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

here we go again

only about the 1000'th guy here that can hit 70% winners

if you can really hit 70% then quit wasting your time here, just cash your tickets and be happy

you obviously are trying to convince yourself more than you are trying to convince the forum

AGREE... why don't you get some publicly documented winners before you tout yourself douche

**brxbmbers42** · 12-07-10, 08:47 PM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

here we go again

only about the 1000'th guy here that can hit 70% winners

if you can really hit 70% then quit wasting your time here, just cash your tickets and be happy

you obviously are trying to convince yourself more than you are trying to convince the forum

70%.

you could make a mill a week.

**StackinGreen** · 12-07-10, 08:47 PM

2 days

Originally posted by james4512

bears -3 was up for literally 3 hours

I can prove it, at least 2 days.

The Wynn had it for 3 days at -3 (-125) (last T-W-R)

3-4 other strip casinos had it concurrently at -3.5 (-110)

I don't lie. Why do you?

**brxbmbers42** · 12-07-10, 08:49 PM

Originally posted by StackinGreen

I can prove it, at least 2 days.

The Wynn had it for 3 days at -3 (-125) (last T-W-R)

3-4 other strip casinos had it concurrently at -3.5 (-110)

I don't lie. Why do you?

fukk off kook. no one is interested in you're 70% bullshit. you couldnt hit 70% on the best day of you're life. FOR ONE DAY

**StackinGreen** · 12-07-10, 08:51 PM

IT WAS NEVER A TOUT post

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

here we go again

only about the 1000'th guy here that can hit 70% winners

if you can really hit 70% then quit wasting your time here, just cash your tickets and be happy

you obviously are trying to convince yourself more than you are trying to convince the forum

Do you guys read?

The question was about statistical analysis.

I never touted anything. I asked a question. Please go read again.

Doubt whatever you want. It might take years to get the kind of confidence plays to hit such a number. Think about what you write before you write it, bxbomber ... I never said that WHATEVER I picked would go 70%.

Again, read, or stop trolling. I asked about confidence intervals of such a percentage desired in order to minimally confirm it was not mainly due to chance.

Recognize. Read. Then please say something smart or quit wasting everyone's time (too late).

**StackinGreen** · 12-07-10, 08:53 PM

The page is cached. Go look and then apologize. I followed the line 3 times daily from Monday to Thursday.

When you don't come back because you're exposed as a liar, we'll know.

**brxbmbers42** · 12-07-10, 08:53 PM

Originally posted by StackinGreen

Do you guys read?

The question was about statistical analysis.

I never touted anything. I asked a question. Please go read again.

Doubt whatever you want. It might take years to get the kind of confidence plays to hit such a number. Think about what you write before you write it, bxbomber ... I never said that WHATEVER I picked would go 70%.

Again, read, or stop trolling. I asked about confidence intervals of such a percentage desired in order to minimally confirm it was not mainly due to chance.

Recognize. Read. Then please say something smart or quit wasting everyone's time (too late).

bro you're lost. the geeks hang out in the think thank. This is the forum where real men shoot the sh1t.

**RudyRuetigger** · 12-07-10, 08:53 PM

a minimum 500 plays is needed.

you're welcome.

**BeatTheJerk** · 12-07-10, 08:54 PM

Now your just a back peddling cocksucker with your last statement SG.

**StackinGreen** · 12-07-10, 08:57 PM

Deluxe

Originally posted by DeluxeLiner

AGREE... why don't you get some publicly documented winners before you tout yourself douche

I started this last week. You want the documentation?

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handicapping/821553-what-your-best-plays-week-13-a.html#post7776667

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

Every team I mentioned, and I'm bet them all, again, believe what you want, was a winner.

Not you so much Deluxe, but everyone else, if you wanted the goods, what are you gonna say now?

I can somehow manipulate timestamps and SBR FORUM?

'Nuff said.

**RudyRuetigger** · 12-07-10, 08:58 PM

i assume hes making these plays up out of thin air and not a model.. so he can't use previous years.

if he makes 4 picks a week, we should know in about 8 years if he can hit 70% in the nfl.

**StackinGreen** · 12-07-10, 08:59 PM

Name calling

Originally posted by BeatTheJerk

Now your just a back peddling cocksucker with your last statement SG.

Your pathetic name calling can't change the fact that my week 13 picks were 4-0

Sorry to disappoint you.

But hey, I like winning. Obviously you don't.

Again, this thread hasn't been about touting. Just analysis.

Still, I exposed all the trolls. Now I expect more name calling, because I delivered the goods and they feel stupid. It's too predictable.