How often does an NFL team win by exactly 2 and by exactly 3 ??

[Hoja Verdes]

Does anyone have a table/info on this? Need the stats for how often nfl games are decided by exactly 2 and exactly 3 points, respectively.

This year, the last 10 years, however the info may be calculated as well. Thanks!

[THE PROFIT]

3 points a lot, I dont know about 2

[Flight]

For NFL, I have

2 pts, 1.8%
3 pts, 9.5%

It may vary depending on what years you use and if you use windowing, but these are sufficient for most analysis. Note that the cost of the three here is about 20 cents.

[Flight]

Sorry I just realized your question was phrased differently than I answered.

I answered, how many times does a game with a spread of 3 push, aka I gave you numbers from a push chart.

[Squirrel]

My dataset goes back to the start of the 1995 season and I have:

2pts margin - 137 times in 3868 games for 3.54%
3pts margin - 615 times in 3868 games for 15.9%

[Flight]

Since I gave you the wrong answer I felt bad so I looked it up with a DB.

For NFL games since 2006 inclusive:

2pts : 43 / 1140 = 3.8%
3pts : 173 / 1140 = 15.2%

I will comment that I don't think this number is as useful as the push chart number.

[Flight]

Thanks for the double check Squirrel. (it's very nice to have two sources to avoid data errors)

[Squirrel]

Thank god for that flight, I was about to start analysing my data since it was so far away from your results

[Flight]

Thank god for that flight, I was about to start analysing my data since it was so far away from your results

Hehe, sorry about that! I get asked the push-chart question much more often!

[pavyracer]

only time they win by 2 is if they go for 2 point conversion at the end to tie game and miss