According To The 'Sharp' Nicky Santoro I Should Have A Winner Tonight In MLB

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  • Grandmaster B
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 09-05-09
    • 6035

    #1
    According To The 'Sharp' Nicky Santoro I Should Have A Winner Tonight In MLB
    He says if you beat the closing line you are a winner 98% of the time...I bet the UNDER 5.5 last night... EV

    today I look and its -110
  • Grandmaster B
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 09-05-09
    • 6035

    #2
    no comment from the sharp master guru?
    Comment
    • Nicky Santoro
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 04-08-08
      • 16103

      #3
      first of all, when did i say 98% of the time you win. you can have 200 great #'s in a row and still hit 29% over that span.. you can lose 19 in a row, even if you get an amazing price on each game. it's a very long term investment. not 1 game. it might even take 3 yrs to show a profit.. not 1 game... but at the end you will win.

      secondly, you have a horrible bet. where do you see un 5.5 -110? it's un 5.5 +104 at pinny and un 5.5 +110 at matchy.. and you have un 5.5 even? LOL

      you are not good at this game. might as well quit now..
      Comment
      • Grandmaster B
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 09-05-09
        • 6035

        #4
        Originally posted by Nicky Santoro
        first of all, when did i say 98% of the time you win. you can have 200 great #'s in a row and still hit 29% over that span.. you can lose 19 in a row, even if you get an amazing price on each game. it's a very long term investment. not 1 game. it might even take 3 yrs to show a profit.. not 1 game... but at the end you will win.

        secondly, you have a horrible bet. where do you see un 5.5 -110? it's un 5.5 +104 at pinny and un 5.5 +110 at matchy.. and you have un 5.5 even? LOL

        you are not good at this game. might as well quit now..
        did God tell you that?
        Comment
        • Nicky Santoro
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 04-08-08
          • 16103

          #5
          bud, i don't get your humor. did i say something funny?? you bet un 5.5 ev when you can get un 5.5 +110 as we speak.. and you are laughing at me??

          bud, quit now.. i don't want to see your poor family suffer when you have to move into a small 1 bedroom apt because you can't afford your place anymore because daddy can't tell the difference between un 5.5 ev and un 5.5 +110.
          Comment
          • Grandmaster B
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 09-05-09
            • 6035

            #6
            Originally posted by Nicky Santoro
            bud, i don't get your humor. did i say something funny?? you bet un 5.5 ev when you can get un 5.5 +110 as we speak.. and you are laughing at me??

            bud, quit now.. i don't want to see your poor family suffer when you have to move into a small 1 bedroom apt because you can't afford your place anymore because daddy can't tell the difference between a +ev and a -ev bet..
            now that I know you called the under a "bad bet" in tonights game I will have a beer and watch the game with supreme confidence
            Comment
            • Masu485
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 08-14-08
              • 7700

              #7
              nicky are we going to KFC today?
              Comment
              • Nicky Santoro
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 04-08-08
                • 16103

                #8
                Originally posted by Grandmaster B
                now that I know you called the under a "bad bet" in tonights game I will have a beer and watch the game with supreme confidence
                bud, i am not handicapping it and telling you it will lose. i am just letting you know that at un 5.5 even, it's a horrible bet.. at un 5.5 +120, it would be a great bet. that's all i am saying.

                it's like saying you bought MILK for 3.23$ when you could have gotten it next door for 2.36$.. that's it. the milk will still taste just as good, but you are getting ripped. that's it. the outcome has nothing to do with it.
                Comment
                • Nicky Santoro
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 04-08-08
                  • 16103

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Masu485
                  nicky are we going to KFC today?
                  i'll take a rain check buddy. habs tonight and Game 5. i never miss the games. i am sick man. i love watching sports. it's my passion. it's my cocaine. it's my life. without it, i'd be lost. it's what gets me up each morning.

                  it's even better than KFC.. and i love KFC and i love to eat..
                  Comment
                  • dimon
                    SBR MVP
                    • 08-14-09
                    • 1159

                    #10
                    can't find where Nicky said "bad bet" but he is right, stop now...if you think that you beat the closer at +100, then I will have to agree with him, stop now...GL no matter what you do
                    Comment
                    • Sam Odom
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 10-30-05
                      • 58063

                      #11
                      Un5.5 ev is nothing to be proud of , as been stated
                      Comment
                      • BadNina
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 11-27-07
                        • 10491

                        #12
                        I like how this started out all complimentary and then headed south.

                        Entertaining. I give it one
                        Comment
                        • pavyracer
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 04-12-07
                          • 82839

                          #13
                          The only time beating the closing line matters is if the team you picked won or covered the spread.
                          Comment
                          • Grandmaster B
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 09-05-09
                            • 6035

                            #14
                            Originally posted by pavyracer
                            The only time beating the closing line matters is if the team you picked won or covered the spread.
                            thats what I always thought but Nicky 'Sharp' Santoro states otherwise...even though he NEVER post plays on here for all to see BEFORE gametime
                            Comment
                            • Grandmaster B
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 09-05-09
                              • 6035

                              #15
                              cmon Niccccccky!!!!!

                              Nina posted in this thread also!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

                              9 MORE OUTS NICKKKYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY
                              Comment
                              • Grandmaster B
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 09-05-09
                                • 6035

                                #16
                                I have a feeling the kiss of death might get me...
                                Comment
                                • Grandmaster B
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 09-05-09
                                  • 6035

                                  #17
                                  6 outs and they had 5 runs in the 4th inning I will feel fire in my blood if I can just get 6 outs
                                  Comment
                                  • Grandmaster B
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 09-05-09
                                    • 6035

                                    #18
                                    both kisses of death posted in this thread...I couldnt overcome it

                                    both of them posting in the thread together is like being bit by a snake...a black widow




                                    it takes luck in this game boys and I just got cooled by SBR's most famous coolers....boys...no more posted picks for the remainder of the month

                                    you can pm me if you want to know who I like
                                    Comment
                                    • BadNina
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 11-27-07
                                      • 10491

                                      #19
                                      You have been hitting very nicely. 7-1-1 isn't anything to be ashamed about. I am proud of you.
                                      Comment
                                      • Grandmaster B
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 09-05-09
                                        • 6035

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by BadNina
                                        You have been hitting very nicely. 7-1-1 isn't anything to be ashamed about. I am proud of you.
                                        look at you of all people worried about my record...sorry to ruin your night...I know you wish for people to lose but this game was never given out by me at any time to anyone on this board...if you read the thread you will see I made this bet last night...and if it wasent for a 9th inning garbage home run it would have cashed

                                        so my record for POSTED plays is still intact...this thread was to mess with nicky and his thinking that gambling can be beat with numbers or science...actually this game turned out to be a prime example of LUCK and how it can make or break a good day

                                        but I meant what I said...no more posted plays this month...I dont have time to deal with people trying to jinx a play...and the SBR posters dont deserve that either...I know your check gets bigger every month with SBR posters losses but I actually want people to win
                                        Comment
                                        • Duff85
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 06-15-10
                                          • 2920

                                          #21
                                          Variance. You already know the beast, you just don't know you know it.
                                          Comment
                                          • BadNina
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 11-27-07
                                            • 10491

                                            #22
                                            stop being so freakin' paranoid. I was wishing you luck and complimenting you. Just be polite and say "Thanks". It isn't that difficult. Did your momma not teach you any manners at all?
                                            Comment
                                            • pavyracer
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 04-12-07
                                              • 82839

                                              #23
                                              I proved the other day that beating the closing line doesn't guarantee a win. I offered someone +200 on the Yankees and he took it. Closing line was Yankees +110. Yankees lost 8-0 and I took his bet.
                                              Comment
                                              • Duff85
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 06-15-10
                                                • 2920

                                                #24
                                                Pavy, Grandmaster, and any of you other non-believers...

                                                We should do a little experiment. Everyday for a month you should give me special lines on any North American Sport at the Pinnacle closing price + 5%. Since your confident that you know which games the market is wrong on, I will even let you pick the games and blindly bet side you want me to back. Anyone keen for this?
                                                Comment
                                                • bobbyfk
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 01-19-09
                                                  • 15218

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Nicky Santoro
                                                  it's even better than KFC.. and i love KFC and i love to eat..
                                                  what do you weigh Nicky?
                                                  Comment
                                                  • pavyracer
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 04-12-07
                                                    • 82839

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Duff85
                                                    Pavy, Grandmaster, and any of you other non-believers...

                                                    We should do a little experiment. Everyday for a month you should give me special lines on any North American Sport at the Pinnacle closing price + 5%. Since your confident that you know which games the market is wrong on, I will even let you pick the games and blindly bet side you want me to back. Anyone keen for this?
                                                    Let me ask you this question then.

                                                    Let's say you like the Giants +3 vs the Cowboys today and the line is -110. You looked at Pinny line today but haven't placed a bet. Then 2 minutes before the game starts you looked at the line and it is +3 -125. So using your logic the Giants +3 is a good play because when you looked at the line 2 days before the game it was better than closing line. So instead of laying $110 to win $100 you lay $125 to win since you always have to beat the closing line to win. Why place the bet early then?
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Duff85
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 06-15-10
                                                      • 2920

                                                      #27
                                                      No you would never lay $125 in this situation. You'd find someone offering -110 and you take that, otherwise you wouldn't play. You need to beat the closing no vig number, not play the widely available number. In a situation like this i'm looking at other books that may not have moved their number.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • rem sleep
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 10-04-10
                                                        • 1238

                                                        #28
                                                        the grilled chicken at kfc with ketchup is very delicious
                                                        Comment
                                                        • pavyracer
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 04-12-07
                                                          • 82839

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by Duff85
                                                          No you would never lay $125 in this situation. You'd find someone offering -110 and you take that, otherwise you wouldn't play. You need to beat the closing no vig number, not play the widely available number. In a situation like this i'm looking at other books that may not have moved their number.
                                                          So basically as long as I can find a book that will give me -110 I will win my bet because what matters is the Pinny line which moved from -110 to -125.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Duff85
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 06-15-10
                                                            • 2920

                                                            #30
                                                            It is widely believed that Pinny and Matchy are the two worth keeping an eye on because they have the most efficient markets. But you won't be guaranteed to win your bet, it's not even 100% guaranteed that you will be making a +ev wager everytime. But if you rinse and repeat the same process over thousands of bets your going to be a winning player.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • DeluxeLiner
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 01-29-08
                                                              • 4132

                                                              #31
                                                              it's the no-vig closing line that you have to beat
                                                              Comment
                                                              • jayc88
                                                                Restricted User
                                                                • 12-30-07
                                                                • 6785

                                                                #32
                                                                great bet
                                                                this is exactly how you beat the books
                                                                Comment
                                                                • pavyracer
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 04-12-07
                                                                  • 82839

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by DeluxeLiner
                                                                  it's the no-vig closing line that you have to beat
                                                                  So you keep making bets throughout the week until you beat it? How do you beat a line before it closes?
                                                                  Comment
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