According To The 'Sharp' Nicky Santoro I Should Have A Winner Tonight In MLB
He says if you beat the closing line you are a winner 98% of the time...I bet the UNDER 5.5 last night... EV
today I look and its -110
Grandmaster B
SBR Hall of Famer
09-05-09
6035
#2
no comment from the sharp master guru?
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Nicky Santoro
SBR Posting Legend
04-08-08
16103
#3
first of all, when did i say 98% of the time you win. you can have 200 great #'s in a row and still hit 29% over that span.. you can lose 19 in a row, even if you get an amazing price on each game. it's a very long term investment. not 1 game. it might even take 3 yrs to show a profit.. not 1 game... but at the end you will win.
secondly, you have a horrible bet. where do you see un 5.5 -110? it's un 5.5 +104 at pinny and un 5.5 +110 at matchy.. and you have un 5.5 even? LOL
you are not good at this game. might as well quit now..
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Grandmaster B
SBR Hall of Famer
09-05-09
6035
#4
Originally posted by Nicky Santoro
first of all, when did i say 98% of the time you win. you can have 200 great #'s in a row and still hit 29% over that span.. you can lose 19 in a row, even if you get an amazing price on each game. it's a very long term investment. not 1 game. it might even take 3 yrs to show a profit.. not 1 game... but at the end you will win.
secondly, you have a horrible bet. where do you see un 5.5 -110? it's un 5.5 +104 at pinny and un 5.5 +110 at matchy.. and you have un 5.5 even? LOL
you are not good at this game. might as well quit now..
did God tell you that?
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Nicky Santoro
SBR Posting Legend
04-08-08
16103
#5
bud, i don't get your humor. did i say something funny?? you bet un 5.5 ev when you can get un 5.5 +110 as we speak.. and you are laughing at me??
bud, quit now.. i don't want to see your poor family suffer when you have to move into a small 1 bedroom apt because you can't afford your place anymore because daddy can't tell the difference between un 5.5 ev and un 5.5 +110.
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Grandmaster B
SBR Hall of Famer
09-05-09
6035
#6
Originally posted by Nicky Santoro
bud, i don't get your humor. did i say something funny?? you bet un 5.5 ev when you can get un 5.5 +110 as we speak.. and you are laughing at me??
bud, quit now.. i don't want to see your poor family suffer when you have to move into a small 1 bedroom apt because you can't afford your place anymore because daddy can't tell the difference between a +ev and a -ev bet..
now that I know you called the under a "bad bet" in tonights game I will have a beer and watch the game with supreme confidence
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Masu485
SBR Hall of Famer
08-14-08
7700
#7
nicky are we going to KFC today?
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Nicky Santoro
SBR Posting Legend
04-08-08
16103
#8
Originally posted by Grandmaster B
now that I know you called the under a "bad bet" in tonights game I will have a beer and watch the game with supreme confidence
bud, i am not handicapping it and telling you it will lose. i am just letting you know that at un 5.5 even, it's a horrible bet.. at un 5.5 +120, it would be a great bet. that's all i am saying.
it's like saying you bought MILK for 3.23$ when you could have gotten it next door for 2.36$.. that's it. the milk will still taste just as good, but you are getting ripped. that's it. the outcome has nothing to do with it.
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Nicky Santoro
SBR Posting Legend
04-08-08
16103
#9
Originally posted by Masu485
nicky are we going to KFC today?
i'll take a rain check buddy. habs tonight and Game 5. i never miss the games. i am sick man. i love watching sports. it's my passion. it's my cocaine. it's my life. without it, i'd be lost. it's what gets me up each morning.
it's even better than KFC.. and i love KFC and i love to eat..
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dimon
SBR MVP
08-14-09
1159
#10
can't find where Nicky said "bad bet" but he is right, stop now...if you think that you beat the closer at +100, then I will have to agree with him, stop now...GL no matter what you do
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Sam Odom
SBR Aristocracy
10-30-05
58063
#11
Un5.5 ev is nothing to be proud of , as been stated
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BadNina
SBR Posting Legend
11-27-07
10491
#12
I like how this started out all complimentary and then headed south.
Entertaining. I give it one
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pavyracer
SBR Aristocracy
04-12-07
82839
#13
The only time beating the closing line matters is if the team you picked won or covered the spread.
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Grandmaster B
SBR Hall of Famer
09-05-09
6035
#14
Originally posted by pavyracer
The only time beating the closing line matters is if the team you picked won or covered the spread.
thats what I always thought but Nicky 'Sharp' Santoro states otherwise...even though he NEVER post plays on here for all to see BEFORE gametime
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Grandmaster B
SBR Hall of Famer
09-05-09
6035
#15
cmon Niccccccky!!!!!
Nina posted in this thread also!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
9 MORE OUTS NICKKKYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY
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Grandmaster B
SBR Hall of Famer
09-05-09
6035
#16
I have a feeling the kiss of death might get me...
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Grandmaster B
SBR Hall of Famer
09-05-09
6035
#17
6 outs and they had 5 runs in the 4th inning I will feel fire in my blood if I can just get 6 outs
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Grandmaster B
SBR Hall of Famer
09-05-09
6035
#18
both kisses of death posted in this thread...I couldnt overcome it
both of them posting in the thread together is like being bit by a snake...a black widow
it takes luck in this game boys and I just got cooled by SBR's most famous coolers....boys...no more posted picks for the remainder of the month
you can pm me if you want to know who I like
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BadNina
SBR Posting Legend
11-27-07
10491
#19
You have been hitting very nicely. 7-1-1 isn't anything to be ashamed about. I am proud of you.
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Grandmaster B
SBR Hall of Famer
09-05-09
6035
#20
Originally posted by BadNina
You have been hitting very nicely. 7-1-1 isn't anything to be ashamed about. I am proud of you.
look at you of all people worried about my record...sorry to ruin your night...I know you wish for people to lose but this game was never given out by me at any time to anyone on this board...if you read the thread you will see I made this bet last night...and if it wasent for a 9th inning garbage home run it would have cashed
so my record for POSTED plays is still intact...this thread was to mess with nicky and his thinking that gambling can be beat with numbers or science...actually this game turned out to be a prime example of LUCK and how it can make or break a good day
but I meant what I said...no more posted plays this month...I dont have time to deal with people trying to jinx a play...and the SBR posters dont deserve that either...I know your check gets bigger every month with SBR posters losses but I actually want people to win
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Duff85
SBR MVP
06-15-10
2920
#21
Variance. You already know the beast, you just don't know you know it.
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BadNina
SBR Posting Legend
11-27-07
10491
#22
stop being so freakin' paranoid. I was wishing you luck and complimenting you. Just be polite and say "Thanks". It isn't that difficult. Did your momma not teach you any manners at all?
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pavyracer
SBR Aristocracy
04-12-07
82839
#23
I proved the other day that beating the closing line doesn't guarantee a win. I offered someone +200 on the Yankees and he took it. Closing line was Yankees +110. Yankees lost 8-0 and I took his bet.
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Duff85
SBR MVP
06-15-10
2920
#24
Pavy, Grandmaster, and any of you other non-believers...
We should do a little experiment. Everyday for a month you should give me special lines on any North American Sport at the Pinnacle closing price + 5%. Since your confident that you know which games the market is wrong on, I will even let you pick the games and blindly bet side you want me to back. Anyone keen for this?
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bobbyfk
SBR Posting Legend
01-19-09
15218
#25
Originally posted by Nicky Santoro
it's even better than KFC.. and i love KFC and i love to eat..
what do you weigh Nicky?
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pavyracer
SBR Aristocracy
04-12-07
82839
#26
Originally posted by Duff85
Pavy, Grandmaster, and any of you other non-believers...
We should do a little experiment. Everyday for a month you should give me special lines on any North American Sport at the Pinnacle closing price + 5%. Since your confident that you know which games the market is wrong on, I will even let you pick the games and blindly bet side you want me to back. Anyone keen for this?
Let me ask you this question then.
Let's say you like the Giants +3 vs the Cowboys today and the line is -110. You looked at Pinny line today but haven't placed a bet. Then 2 minutes before the game starts you looked at the line and it is +3 -125. So using your logic the Giants +3 is a good play because when you looked at the line 2 days before the game it was better than closing line. So instead of laying $110 to win $100 you lay $125 to win since you always have to beat the closing line to win. Why place the bet early then?
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Duff85
SBR MVP
06-15-10
2920
#27
No you would never lay $125 in this situation. You'd find someone offering -110 and you take that, otherwise you wouldn't play. You need to beat the closing no vig number, not play the widely available number. In a situation like this i'm looking at other books that may not have moved their number.
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rem sleep
SBR MVP
10-04-10
1238
#28
the grilled chicken at kfc with ketchup is very delicious
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pavyracer
SBR Aristocracy
04-12-07
82839
#29
Originally posted by Duff85
No you would never lay $125 in this situation. You'd find someone offering -110 and you take that, otherwise you wouldn't play. You need to beat the closing no vig number, not play the widely available number. In a situation like this i'm looking at other books that may not have moved their number.
So basically as long as I can find a book that will give me -110 I will win my bet because what matters is the Pinny line which moved from -110 to -125.
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Duff85
SBR MVP
06-15-10
2920
#30
It is widely believed that Pinny and Matchy are the two worth keeping an eye on because they have the most efficient markets. But you won't be guaranteed to win your bet, it's not even 100% guaranteed that you will be making a +ev wager everytime. But if you rinse and repeat the same process over thousands of bets your going to be a winning player.
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DeluxeLiner
SBR MVP
01-29-08
4132
#31
it's the no-vig closing line that you have to beat
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jayc88
Restricted User
12-30-07
6785
#32
great bet
this is exactly how you beat the books
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pavyracer
SBR Aristocracy
04-12-07
82839
#33
Originally posted by DeluxeLiner
it's the no-vig closing line that you have to beat
So you keep making bets throughout the week until you beat it? How do you beat a line before it closes?