1. 07-29-23 04:28 PM #1
    veriableodds
    validation not required
    veriableodds's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-22-17
    Posts: 3,817
    Betpoints: 868

    is it a DOG year in MLB??

    MLB Baseball Trends - Season To Date


    straight up dogs home/or/away
    41.8% win rate

    Against The Spread Trends (ATS) home/or/away

    57.5%
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 07-29-23 07:39 PM #2
    bhoor
    bhoor's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-17-12
    Posts: 2,176
    Betpoints: 2998

    Of all the sports, MLB is the most profitable for betting.
    Points Awarded:

    19th Hole gave bhoor 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.

    veriableodds gave bhoor 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.

    lakerboy gave bhoor 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: stevenash
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote 1
  3. 07-29-23 11:10 PM #3
    19th Hole
    19th Hole's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-22-09
    Posts: 17,425
    Betpoints: 10150

    MLB
    Sat 7/29/23
    Dogs 10---Favs 5
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 07-30-23 01:44 PM #4
    OldBill
    OldBill's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-02-21
    Posts: 4,964
    Betpoints: 3909

    love MLB dogs because it's money line bet just that sports books use 20 - 30 cent lines too much

    like - 220 fv but dog is only + 190
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 07-30-23 01:54 PM #5
    OldBill
    OldBill's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-02-21
    Posts: 4,964
    Betpoints: 3909

    when i was betting MLB with a local huge favs he used - 1.5 runs for saying im doing you a favor i said no your robbing of dog money i want +250 for my $200 so he snaps back you get 1.5 runs and +120 grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr ok so i'm getting the team who i think wins the game +1.5 runs right? OK give me that dog for $1000 whoaaaaaa he snaps you never bet that much ya know if you lose you pay me $1100 i said what? no this aint NFL buddy or nba this is ML betting i lose 1000$ if they lose by 2 runs or more right?

    HE said ok u got it the DOG WON 10- 2 lol i call him up ok see ya fri budddy whooo oooo couldnt drive fast enough to ac nj casinos 1000$ cash on craps table wam wam wam buried them won $2500 more in 4 hours took dinner break at 7 pm nice juicy rib eye steak baked tater plus salad and drink with free comp ...... went back to differnt table played rest of night until about 4 am and i'm fuggin happy with $6579
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: ChuckyTheGoat
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote 1
  6. 07-30-23 07:35 PM #6
    lakerboy
    lakerboy's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-02-09
    Posts: 93,138
    Betpoints: 9062

    Quote Originally Posted by bhoor View Post
    Of all the sports, MLB is the most profitable for betting.
    This is 100% fact.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 07-30-23 08:47 PM #7
    stevenash
    stevenash's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 60,836
    Betpoints: 29628

    Quote Originally Posted by bhoor View Post
    Of all the sports, MLB is the most profitable for betting.
    You've made a lot of good points in the decade that you've been here, I know, I read most everything.
    But the aforementioned quote just may be the truest words you ever uttered.

    *off topic*
    Don't you love it when in NCAA hoops, when an unranked home team, a two point unranked home team favorite beats a ranked visiting two point underdog team, and those empty suited talking heads over at ESPN's Sports Center tease their upcoming telecast with "the biggest upset of the month"

    How exactly is a, say, a 10-5 unranked Big East Providence team, as a two point home favorite beats a say, then 12-3 14th ranked road underdog Xavier team a n upset?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 07-30-23 10:00 PM #8
    bhoor
    bhoor's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-17-12
    Posts: 2,176
    Betpoints: 2998

    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    You've made a lot of good points in the decade that you've been here, I know, I read most everything.
    But the aforementioned quote just may be the truest words you ever uttered.

    *off topic*
    Don't you love it when in NCAA hoops, when an unranked home team, a two point unranked home team favorite beats a ranked visiting two point underdog team, and those empty suited talking heads over at ESPN's Sports Center tease their upcoming telecast with "the biggest upset of the month"

    How exactly is a, say, a 10-5 unranked Big East Providence team, as a two point home favorite beats a say, then 12-3 14th ranked road underdog Xavier team a n upset?
    You understood the game very well from the fan/analyst point of view. Even with the deep knowledge of sports, you won't get too far in sports betting because there will be too many external factors ( rigging, players, coaches, market influences etc). The bet you make would be an ideal one from your analysis point of view but market will decide differently. To beat this game, you have to find an edge that should be independent of these market forces, for example, I found gematria is the key to beat this game, at least,that's my point of view. MLB offering 160 games would be a perfect sports to exploit these market conditions using Gematria. My issues are MM and discipline. This NCAA/NFL/NHL/NBA season I'm thinking big as all of you. And I will provide my numbers end of this yr.

    Cheers!
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: badgerguy
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote 1
  9. 07-30-23 10:36 PM #9
    bhoor
    bhoor's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-17-12
    Posts: 2,176
    Betpoints: 2998

    http://
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 07-30-23 10:39 PM #10
    bhoor
    bhoor's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-17-12
    Posts: 2,176
    Betpoints: 2998

    [IMG][/IMG]
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  11. 07-30-23 10:50 PM #11
    veriableodds
    validation not required
    veriableodds's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-22-17
    Posts: 3,817
    Betpoints: 868

    The unbiased approach of assigning numerical value to data/words. T-A playing T-B on road (T-A) has a clear enough better record to catch your eye as a possible pick. So you check the last 10 games they have played. Unfortunately, they have only won 5 of last 10 games so personally it would be scratch, if they had won 6, that would be a different story. It would be a complete scratch game if making a case for T-B simply cause of the record differential. Then you have teams/games where the records are very close. To eliminate silliness of going crazy volume wise you want to stick with the games when dog line is at least +120, and have won at least 5 of last 10 or they would be a scratch also. Certainly, wouldn't take the other side as in paying juice for it, that's just crazy. This works well for NHL, essentially, it's the same for all sports if the spread has value.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  12. 07-31-23 08:15 AM #12
    veriableodds
    validation not required
    veriableodds's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-22-17
    Posts: 3,817
    Betpoints: 868

    Todays card
    possibles
    mlw
    tb
    blt
    laa
    clv
    bst
    mlw is scratch.
    tb is a scratch.
    blt, laa, clv, bst are all go wagers and all dogs
    Not betting this just example. for explaining purposes
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  13. 07-31-23 08:46 AM #13
    Machba
    2X POTM JAN 2022 SEPT 2022
    Machba's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-08-19
    Posts: 6,616
    Betpoints: 3235

    [QUOTE=veriableodds;31213170]Todays card
    possibles
    mlw
    tb
    blt
    laa
    clv
    bst
    mlw is scratch.
    tb is a scratch.
    blt, laa, clv, bst are all go wagers and all dogs
    Not betting this just example. for explaining purposes[/QUOT
    Boston will not win today
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  14. 07-31-23 09:26 AM #14
    ChuckyTheGoat
    ChuckyTheGoat's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-11
    Posts: 28,774
    Betpoints: 23003

    Quote Originally Posted by veriableodds View Post
    The unbiased approach of assigning numerical value to data/words. T-A playing T-B on road (T-A) has a clear enough better record to catch your eye as a possible pick. So you check the last 10 games they have played. Unfortunately, they have only won 5 of last 10 games so personally it would be scratch, if they had won 6, that would be a different story. It would be a complete scratch game if making a case for T-B simply cause of the record differential. Then you have teams/games where the records are very close. To eliminate silliness of going crazy volume wise you want to stick with the games when dog line is at least +120, and have won at least 5 of last 10 or they would be a scratch also. Certainly, wouldn't take the other side as in paying juice for it, that's just crazy. This works well for NHL, essentially, it's the same for all sports if the spread has value.
    Boys...I'm telling you. This guy (Veri) is GOOD.
    Points Awarded:

    JohnGalt2341 gave ChuckyTheGoat 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.

    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  15. 08-03-23 06:40 AM #15
    stevex
    stevex's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-02-10
    Posts: 5,067
    Betpoints: 11061

    Back to chalk winning 10-12 games on each card, daily.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  16. 08-03-23 12:04 PM #16
    JohnGalt2341
    The bloom on the rose is oft not wet.
    JohnGalt2341's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-31-09
    Posts: 8,739
    Betpoints: 5543

    Quote Originally Posted by veriableodds View Post
    MLB Baseball Trends - Season To Date


    straight up dogs home/or/away
    41.8% win rate

    Against The Spread Trends (ATS) home/or/away

    57.5%
    Any idea on what the average Line/Price is on these?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  17. 08-03-23 03:08 PM #17
    stevenash
    stevenash's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 60,836
    Betpoints: 29628

    Quote Originally Posted by stevex View Post
    Back to chalk winning 10-12 games on each card, daily.
    When you consider there are 2,480 MLB regular season games a year that's an insignificant sample size though.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  18. 08-03-23 04:00 PM #18
    stevenash
    stevenash's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 60,836
    Betpoints: 29628

    *double post*
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  19. 08-03-23 05:24 PM #19
    stevex
    stevex's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-02-10
    Posts: 5,067
    Betpoints: 11061

    Chalk 4-1 already today (normally chalk owns day games). Here we go with another day of dogs maybe winning a game.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  20. 08-04-23 08:39 AM #20
    veriableodds
    validation not required
    veriableodds's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-22-17
    Posts: 3,817
    Betpoints: 868

    looking at today's card breakdown
    favorites
    atl, cnn, blt, mlw, lad
    DQ'd from this list cnn, mlw, lad so plays are atl, blt

    close record dogs with above/+115 payout
    nyy, cws, tor, mia, az, cld
    DQ'd from list cws, az, cld plays are nyy, tor, mia thats 5 total w/3 dogs
    models that are showing total value
    hou/nyy shows 9.62-vs-9 line
    nym/blt shows 9.89-vs-9 line
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  21. 08-04-23 08:41 AM #21
    veriableodds
    validation not required
    veriableodds's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-22-17
    Posts: 3,817
    Betpoints: 868

    MLB Baseball Trends - Season To Date


    straight up dog home/away 41.7%
    ats dog home/away 57%
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  22. 08-04-23 10:07 AM #22
    bhoor
    bhoor's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-17-12
    Posts: 2,176
    Betpoints: 2998

    Gematria says Rockies today
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  23. 08-04-23 11:15 AM #23
    JohnGalt2341
    The bloom on the rose is oft not wet.
    JohnGalt2341's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-31-09
    Posts: 8,739
    Betpoints: 5543

    Quote Originally Posted by bhoor View Post
    Gematria says Rockies today
    Is this for real? If so, how do you calculate who is going to win using gematria?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  24. 08-04-23 02:45 PM #24
    stevex
    stevex's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-02-10
    Posts: 5,067
    Betpoints: 11061

    AND it begins with the Cubs. Just bet chalk in MLB all season to make money.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  25. 08-04-23 03:41 PM #25
    texhooper
    texhooper's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-05-09
    Posts: 9,602
    Betpoints: 5650

    Quote Originally Posted by veriableodds View Post
    MLB Baseball Trends - Season To Date


    straight up dog home/away 41.7%
    ats dog home/away 57%
    Do you have unit tallies for each of these by chance? 41.7% sounds profitable straight up but 57% on +1.5 does not
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  26. 08-04-23 03:42 PM #26
    veriableodds
    validation not required
    veriableodds's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-22-17
    Posts: 3,817
    Betpoints: 868

    Quote Originally Posted by stevex View Post
    AND it begins with the Cubs. Just bet chalk in MLB all season to make money.
    post #20 ATL was a play today/chalk
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  27. 08-04-23 03:45 PM #27
    veriableodds
    validation not required
    veriableodds's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-22-17
    Posts: 3,817
    Betpoints: 868

    Quote Originally Posted by bhoor View Post
    Gematria says Rockies today
    I see your point on this one(not much to be said for STL), but Colorado has only won 3 of the last 10. I also watched the line go from +160 to over +180
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  28. 08-04-23 03:47 PM #28
    veriableodds
    validation not required
    veriableodds's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-22-17
    Posts: 3,817
    Betpoints: 868

    Quote Originally Posted by veriableodds View Post
    Todays card
    possibles
    mlw
    tb
    blt
    laa
    clv
    bst
    mlw is scratch.
    tb is a scratch.
    blt, laa, clv, bst are all go wagers and all dogs
    Not betting this just example. for explaining purposes
    winning only 2 of these but still made +1u if 1u was wagered each play
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  29. 08-04-23 09:52 PM #29
    bhoor
    bhoor's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-17-12
    Posts: 2,176
    Betpoints: 2998

    Quote Originally Posted by JohnGalt2341 View Post
    Is this for real? If so, how do you calculate who is going to win using gematria?
    Some combinations with #s and its team names
    Points Awarded:

    veriableodds gave bhoor 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.

    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  30. 08-04-23 10:04 PM #30
    veriableodds
    validation not required
    veriableodds's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-22-17
    Posts: 3,817
    Betpoints: 868

    Quote Originally Posted by texhooper View Post
    Do you have unit tallies for each of these by chance? 41.7% sounds profitable straight up but 57% on +1.5 does not
    No I hate runlines, however if you can get +1 runs instead of +1.5(alt lines) it appears it should be profitable. How far will that drop the 57% I dont know.
    Percentage of One-Run MLB Games From 2004-2014

    • 7,824 Games Out of 27,080 Games
    • 28.89% Decided By One Run
    Points Awarded:

    texhooper gave veriableodds 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  31. 08-04-23 10:09 PM #31
    veriableodds
    validation not required
    veriableodds's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-22-17
    Posts: 3,817
    Betpoints: 868

    Quote Originally Posted by veriableodds View Post
    looking at today's card breakdown
    favorites
    atl, cnn, blt, mlw, lad
    DQ'd from this list cnn, mlw, lad so plays are atl, blt

    close record dogs with above/+115 payout
    nyy, cws, tor, mia, az, cld
    DQ'd from list cws, az, cld plays are nyy, tor, mia thats 5 total w/3 dogs
    models that are showing total value
    hou/nyy shows 9.62-vs-9 line
    nym/blt shows 9.89-vs-9 line
    5-2 with examples. That should be enough information for a good foundation of baseball theory. lol. forgot TB they were on list but opposite of the side I check dont know if they would of been a play but they won..
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  32. 08-05-23 08:48 AM #32
    veriableodds
    validation not required
    veriableodds's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-22-17
    Posts: 3,817
    Betpoints: 868

    only 1 game for me today
    sfg/oak/ov-7.5
    model shows 9.28runs
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  33. 08-05-23 08:50 AM #33
    Machba
    2X POTM JAN 2022 SEPT 2022
    Machba's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-08-19
    Posts: 6,616
    Betpoints: 3235

    Get on the nats today
    They win easily again
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  34. 08-05-23 10:19 AM #34
    bhoor
    bhoor's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-17-12
    Posts: 2,176
    Betpoints: 2998

    Gematria says Chicago Cubs today along with many others.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  35. 08-05-23 10:26 AM #35
    JohnGalt2341
    The bloom on the rose is oft not wet.
    JohnGalt2341's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-31-09
    Posts: 8,739
    Betpoints: 5543

    Quote Originally Posted by bhoor View Post
    Some combinations with #s and its team names
    Yeah, but how do you read it?

    Quote Originally Posted by bhoor View Post
    Gematria says Chicago Cubs today along with many others.
    Are you getting this from a website or your own calculation? OR are you just trolling? Gematria intrigues me but I've never tried applying it to Sportsbetting. I'm just curious as to how people attempt to go about it.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
12 Last
Top
« Previous Thread | Players Talk | Next Thread »