NFL week 11- Contrarian Angles

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I'd lay out the parameters as such:
1) Limit of one pick per week for a given poster.
2) Totals are fair game.
3) Quote a current price (vs -110 line or better). Can't just say "Team A".
4) List a reason WHY you are Fading a team...and why you LIKE the team you're backing. Have to state why you think the play is counter-intuitive and therefore likely to represent value.
5) Goal of the thread is to identify sides which the public likes. If the public is too high on said side, then contrarian side should have line value.

That's how I'd describe it. In addition to fading a certain team, the side we're backing often feels like it's a tough bet to make.

[pologq]

Colts +8.5 at home against Eagles. They are now +7.5 after last night. I jumped on the line early and got it -110 and the +8.5. i think the Colts at home getting more than a TD with Saturday as the new coach has value. Everyone loves the Eagles and I think it is time to fade them on a short week.

[TheLock]

Lions only getting 3 points at Giants is pure contrarian. I think the number will land back on 3.5 so holding off for now.

[TheRedZone]

Lions only getting 3 points at Giants is pure contrarian. I think the number will land back on 3.5 so holding off for now.

NYG still getting no respect from Vegas

[Renegades]

Hou is contrarian

[Nate rasta]

Minnesota Vikings +1

This line makes no sense to me maybe I'm missing something. Dallas couldn't even close out a wounded Green Bay team. Now they're going into Minnesota . Vikings are hot right now. Eagles just lost so you know Minnesota is going to do everything to stay in the number one seed race. I feel like this should be Vikings -3. I'm rolling with the Vikings this week +1

[canepole]

Washington trounced the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles in their own house by 11 on prime time Monday Night Football. Now, they travel to the 1-7 Houston Texans and are favored only by 3. With that being said, give me the Texans.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Minnesota Vikings +1

This line makes no sense to me maybe I'm missing something. Dallas couldn't even close out a wounded Green Bay team. Now they're going into Minnesota . Vikings are hot right now. Eagles just lost so you know Minnesota is going to do everything to stay in the number one seed race. I feel like this should be Vikings -3. I'm rolling with the Vikings this week +1

Nice writeup, Nate. Thanks for posting.

Good Luck. Will be rooting for you. Hope your undefeated mark holds up.

[pologq]

Colts +8.5 at home against Eagles. They are now +7.5 after last night. I jumped on the line early and got it -110 and the +8.5. i think the Colts at home getting more than a TD with Saturday as the new coach has value. Everyone loves the Eagles and I think it is time to fade them on a short week.

line went down to +6.5 as of last night. not sure if it came back up since.

i think eagles win by 4-6.

[mpaschal34]

Hearing could be 3-6 ft of snow in Buffalo this weekend.

[agendaman]

well this line i do like.my pick this week is bengals-steelers over total of 41 at -110.division game weather forecast says 29 degrees no precip. i mean qb. burrows mixon higgins plus qb.pickett has settled in some .remember guys when a line does not look sharp the bookie had a reason for it.i am going to bet all of our picks and nothing else.gl all.

[canepole]

Hou is contrarian

My apologies Renegades. I didn't see your post before I put mine in

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Washington trounced the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles in their own house by 11 on prime time Monday Night Football. Now, they travel to the 1-7 Houston Texans and are favored only by 3. With that being said, give me the Texans.

I'm piggy-backing Cane's pick: Playing 458 HOU +3. Fading: Wash.

Of course, you can do better than +3 (-110). Classic 3.25 line.

Wash off a huge S/U Dog win vs last unbeaten team. Hard to come up w/ a reason to back the Texans.

Rivera says that Chase Young looks close to returning from injury. But I can't imagine he'll be sharp enough to make a difference.

I was only waiting for Rivera to announce Heinecke to start for at least one more week. I know the reports say that Wentz isn't ready. But having won in Philly, Rivera was handcuffed to Heinecke. Can't bench a guy that's well-liked when the team is knocking out some wins. Even though that benching is coming.

WASH will be a comfortable play for people. HOU much harder to back.

"Houston Texans. Houston Texans. Houston Texans...number one."

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Hou is contrarian

Renegades, you make me to put you down on Hou +3? Join the party?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

line went down to +6.5 as of last night. not sure if it came back up since.

i think eagles win by 4-6.

Polo, you want me to put you down for Colts +7? Current #.

Hey, Saturday did win the "2020 Muncie IND Pop Warner Coach of the Year".

[ChuckyTheGoat]

well this line i do like.my pick this week is bengals-steelers over total of 41 at -110.division game weather forecast says 29 degrees no precip. i mean qb. burrows mixon higgins plus qb.pickett has settled in some .remember guys when a line does not look sharp the bookie had a reason for it.i am going to bet all of our picks and nothing else.gl all.

Thank you, Agenda. Will put you down on the Summary. GL on the over.

I like your view here. Heard where Divisional game are really trending to the Under. Wonder how much of that is baked into the line.

[TheLock]

Minnesota Vikings +1

This line makes no sense to me maybe I'm missing something. Dallas couldn't even close out a wounded Green Bay team. Now they're going into Minnesota . Vikings are hot right now. Eagles just lost so you know Minnesota is going to do everything to stay in the number one seed race. I feel like this should be Vikings -3. I'm rolling with the Vikings this week +1

Nate, how are the Vikings contrarian, though?

If anything, the Cowboys are the contrarian play.

I think you’re like 87-0 in this thread so I’m not questioning your methods but I’m just curious.

Edit: and it looks like Dallas went to 1.5

[calamity sue]

I'm going with the Steelers at +4' again this week. They were the correct side last week winning 20-10. The Bengals, meanwhile, are too banged up to be big favorites like this. The spread just doesn't make any sense. Cincinnati was -3 at Cleveland, so this line is saying that the Browns are two points better than the Steelers with Watt playing, which is not true at all. Ja'Marr Chase is out for this game and maybe for week 12 also. Sharp money continues to pour in on the Steelers taking this line down from +6 to as low as 3' at FanDuel.

[OldBill]

easy fade here ravens giving panthers 12.5 points reason is baker gets start for panthers i love rested fresh legs qb's too many points almost 2 full t'ds

hammer the Cats to eat the Bird

[OldBill]

ONE thing about MY Eagles in thier history they stink as favs vs AFC teams and i mean suck except for steelrs and jets whom they own

and 100% after any pitts win or jets win they flop ats this year after hammering wounded steelers 35-13 wk 8 bye wk 9 week 10 -11.5 vs wash kaboom dd s/u loss 32-21

i'll take colts +6.5 imagine a HC with no college or pro experience beating the eagles

[OldBill]

i agree with calamity sue steelrs with watt back are differnt team

even tho bengals are a runaway to win div they can be bumped by inferior teams

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Gonna start building the Summary.

All I ask is that people quote a price at time of post
.

Summary for wk11:

451 Carol +12.5
458 HOU +3 (3x). I'm including Renegades.
472 MIN +1

473/474 Cin/Pit: OVER 41
474: PIT +4.5

Thank you, Sue and Bill. You make some good points.

Thx to all for posting. Good Luck, everyone.

[mpaschal34]

Buffalo game moved to Detroit this weekend

[TheLock]

Lions only getting 3 points at Giants is pure contrarian. I think the number will land back on 3.5 so holding off for now.

Lions +3 -105 is my play

[consom888]

Lions +3 -105 is my play

was holding out for the +3.5 ; saw a +3 +100 on a local line but now back to +3 -110

[Fred The Hammer]

Same game parlay with Bengals ML & Burrow 225+ passing (+125)


Agree Pitt pass rush w/Watt will cause issues, but Cincy has won 5 of 7 and the bye week will help them iron out their protection and get healthy. They know their schedule is getting tougher so this is a must Win for Cincy

[johnnyvegas13]

Lions is contrarian but I don’t see how they win here

[italianbandit]

Great thread Chuck. Niners -8 is contrarian. That’s a lot of points for an Arizona team that has dominated SF for the last few years. SF hasn’t shown much this year except that their defense can dominate when it wants—often in the second half of games and that they can beat the Rams. Chargers gave them a run for their money last week with a second tier team. Arizona dominated them last year with both QBs.

[johnnyvegas13]

B surprised if lions win

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Gonna start building the Summary.

All I ask is that people quote a price at time of post
.

Summary for wk11:

451 Carol +12.5
458 HOU +3 (3x). I'm including Renegades.
461 Det +3
472 MIN +1

473/474 Cin/Pit: OVER 41
474: PIT +4.5
475 San Fran -8

Thank you, Sue and Bill. You make some good points.

Thx to all for posting. Good Luck, everyone.

Thank you, Lock and Bandit. Been in transit, adding those plays now.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Texans with a pitiful effort. I'd bet it again. I'd bet against Heinecke as 3pt road chalk every time.

[TheLock]

Lions is contrarian but I don’t see how they win here

Do you see it now?

[pologq]

i missed finalizing my colts pick, sorry. but i hit it well :-)

[Fred The Hammer]

Same game parlay with Bengals ML & Burrow 225+ passing (+125)


Agree Pitt pass rush w/Watt will cause issues, but Cincy has won 5 of 7 and the bye week will help them iron out their protection and get healthy. They know their schedule is getting tougher so this is a must Win for Cincy

Burrow lit those fools up!

[canepole]

Burrow lit those fools up!

Damn right he did. Good job on parlay