[Chi_archie]

These seems to be hitting at a very high clip

anyone have the numbers on these so far this year, or betting any angles on this?

[lakerboy]

They are juiced accordingly and in many cases are at 2 instead of 1.5.

[Chi_archie]

no juice when you win them all

[pavyracer]

In the past teams would sit back and pack in front of the crease and try to win a 1-0 game in the playoffs.

Now the philosophy is different. Attack from game start before the goalies know what hit them. Shock and awe.

[jjgold]

no juice when you win them all

exactly

[MinnesotaFats]

Those and the player prop O.5 points for teams top 2 scorers on the favorite hitting about 3/4 every night

[Chi_archie]

boom goes the dynamite

never a doubt

[Chi_archie]

boom goes the dynamite

[Chi_archie]

boom goes the dynamite

[Chi_archie]

over 1.5 was 4-0 yesterday

[johnnyvegas13]

Agree over 1.5 if not juiced

[allabout the $$$]

Every game went over yesterday. Late empty netters shoved it up the ass yesterday

[Getch13]

Todays Games:

More than 1.5 goals in first period Boston 5/7

More than 1.5 goals in first period St. Louis 7/8
More than 1.5 goals in first period Minnesota 4/5

BOL

[Chi_archie]

boom goes the dynamite

keep it rolling

[Chi_archie]

Ok let's take all the winnings so far and roll it all into the next game and not press our luck that the trend continues indefinately

Wild/Blues first period over 1.5 -162 4 units
Wild/Blues first period over 2 +123 1.75 units
Wild/blues first period over 2.5 +205 1.25 units

Minnesota first period goals over 1 +130 .67 units
Minnesota first period goals over 1.5 +260 .33 units

[jjgold]

Archie you might be onto something here

[pavyracer]

This is like the run LT Profits had to begin MLB season. Very profitable in the first round but in later rounds may not work as the teams remaining will be the better teams with better goalies.

[svsooner]

Ok let's take all the winnings so far and roll it all into the next game and not press our luck that the trend continues indefinately

Wild/Blues first period over 1.5 -162 4 units
Wild/Blues first period over 2 +123 1.75 units
Wild/blues first period over 2.5 +205 1.25 units

Minnesota first period goals over 1 +130 .67 units
Minnesota first period goals over 1.5 +260 .33 units

Tailing you on the 1.5 1st period overs! LFG!!!

[svsooner]

Come on Archie, let's hear your (or Dwight's) catch phrase...

[svsooner]

Todays Games:

More than 1.5 goals in first period Boston 5/7

More than 1.5 goals in first period St. Louis 7/8
More than 1.5 goals in first period Minnesota 4/5

BOL

Getch,

What about the later games?

[Chi_archie]

[hehfest]

I commented about this in the MLB Unders thread. The hitting from the game is all but gone. Now, you are seeing way more penalties and most of them are "stick" penalties. High-sticking, hooking, slashing, and then the holding (non-stick). See, hitting was legal and still is but they've basically stopped. They will hit along the boards and that's about it. No more open-ice hits. I used to (as high as minors) wack a guy two-handed right in his back when he was in front of the net (I was a defenseman) all dam day. I cleared the front of that net out. Can't do that anymore. I also had some of the best open-ice hits the junior level ever saw. Just annihilated guys at the blue line.

Watch the game. Do you see any of that anymore? No, you won't. This means more Power Plays from stick-type penalties because they try to "stop" them with their sticks because they don't hit. Its almost like the no hitting is a new unwritten rule. I have no idea.

This will lead to way way more scoring. The games were 1-0 when players still hit and could clear the front of the net. Now, its all about scoring and power plays.

Hope this helps. Its not that unders won't fall in but its more likely the overs will far more often. For example, if I was setting the lines in Vegas......I'd have all these games at 7/7.5 right now and all season for that matter. 5.5? Are you kidding me? Go steal that money. They don't want to move those lines, then hammer them.

And yes, I really don't bet regular season hockey or watch it until the last few weeks of the season to get ready for the playoffs. So, I didn't profit from it all year. Wish I paid attention. Then, I thought maybe the hitting would pick up when playoffs start. It did a tiny bit, but not much.

[svsooner]

[QUOTE=Chi_archie;30872949]Ok let's take all the winnings so far and roll it all into the next game and not press our luck that the trend continues indefinately

Wild/Blues first period over 1.5 -162 4 units
Wild/Blues first period over 2 +123 1.75 units
Wild/blues first period over 2.5 +205 1.25 units


Archie,

Are you playing TB/Toronto over 1.5 or packing it up?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Archie you might be onto something here

Why did this guy have to piss on the fire?

[Chi_archie]

boom goes the dynamite!


do we sweeep the board again today?

[svsooner]

Why did this guy have to piss on the fire?

Even that mush can't ruin this gravy train! I hit the over 1.5 TB/Tor for -150 in the first five minutes or so!

[svsooner]

boom goes the dynamite!


do we sweeep the board again today?

Archie are you playing the Edmonton game as well? They will have to do it themselves probably...

[Chi_archie]

I think I'll lay off

I think that is eleven straight and almost 3 full days of playoff hockey over 1.5s.

don't want to wake up to a loser

[svsooner]

Probably a smart move. I'm leaning on Edmonton -1.5...

[KVB]

...Its not that unders won't fall in but its more likely the overs will far more often. For example, if I was setting the lines in Vegas......I'd have all these games at 7/7.5 right now and all season for that matter. 5.5? Are you kidding me? Go steal that money. They don't want to move those lines, then hammer them.

And yes, I really don't bet regular season hockey or watch it until the last few weeks of the season to get ready for the playoffs. So, I didn't profit from it all year. Wish I paid attention. Then, I thought maybe the hitting would pick up when playoffs start. It did a tiny bit, but not much.

Be careful here.

Sure, a bettor betting 1 unit on each OVER this year would be up about +13 units, but not before going down about -28 units, twice.

Do you have the stomach for that?...



What about 5.5? Hopefully you didn't want to bet more on those. That was closer to 50-50 and while there a few more OVERs the vig was a killer over 481 plays. Here's the breakdown of units for the 5.5 line vs all others all others...




There were only 2 games with a 5 line and they both went OVER, there were 3 games at 7.5 and the OVER was 1-2.

As far as making the line 7 or 7.5, you would likely get one sided there. The average Total line this season was 6.01. The average score this season was 6.284.

The market, at the close, was off the average by just .265 points.

There were only 38 games this year that closed at 7 or 7.5, and the OVER was 14-13-11 in those games.

When it comes to the 5.5 line, the average score in those games was 5.857, making the market off by .357 points.

So while the book was off by more with the 5.5 line that all lines together, it didn't result in a better record or profit for the OVER bettor.

Finally, let me just say the UNDERS have been outperforming OVERS in recent years and this run, starting in February, is bit of an outlier. It does seem to have bled into the early playoffs but it may no last.

So be careful of a recency effect of the last 3.5 months or so, when it comes to hockey OVERS, it's been quite a run and coming from a long way down to get to profit this season alone.

[svsooner]

Thanks KVB,

Duly noted. However, I think if we can get the Avs/Preds over 1.5 1st period, it's worth it. Both have prolific offenses...

Can you dig further into your data to individual teams? There have to be outliers...

[svsooner]

For the record, LAK/EDM hit over 1.5 1st period as well for a full day sweep.

[Jayvegas420]

....and no one has scored since.
7 minutes left in game.
Kingston Ontario's Mike Smith has played well. 2 goals on 43 shots

[Chi_archie]

Be careful here.

Sure, a bettor betting 1 unit on each OVER this year would be up about +13 units, but not before going down about -28 units, twice.

Do you have the stomach for that?...



What about 5.5? Hopefully you didn't want to bet more on those. That was closer to 50-50 and while there a few more OVERs the vig was a killer over 481 plays. Here's the breakdown of units for the 5.5 line vs all others all others...




There were only 2 games with a 5 line and they both went OVER, there were 3 games at 7.5 and the OVER was 1-2.

As far as making the line 7 or 7.5, you would likely get one sided there. The average Total line this season was 6.01. The average score this season was 6.284.

The market, at the close, was off the average by just .265 points.

There were only 38 games this year that closed at 7 or 7.5, and the OVER was 14-13-11 in those games.

When it comes to the 5.5 line, the average score in those games was 5.857, making the market off by .357 points.

So while the book was off by more with the 5.5 line that all lines together, it didn't result in a better record or profit for the OVER bettor.

Finally, let me just say the UNDERS have been outperforming OVERS in recent years and this run, starting in February, is bit of an outlier. It does seem to have bled into the early playoffs but it may no last.

So be careful of a recency effect of the last 3.5 months or so, when it comes to hockey OVERS, it's been quite a run and coming from a long way down to get to profit this season alone.

I'd be more interested in playoff breakdowns as hockey has changed quite a bit from reg season to playoffs seemingly, in past years

[KVB]

I'd be more interested in playoff breakdowns as hockey has changed quite a bit from reg season to playoffs seemingly, in past years

Yeah, that was regular season and mostly a response to Uncle Fester. No 1st period data there either.

And you're right, NBA and NHL playoffs just a different animal than the long regular season. I'll get a few years worth of playoff data and compare them too and drop it in here.

I was trying to get something more specific for individual teams like svsooner suggests, but not sure I will have much as far as predicting 1st period scores.

These fast starts in the playoffs are an interesting observation.