1. #1
    Hman
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    Best bets for the BMW Championship ⛳

    Best bets for the BMW Championship

    ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)


    The FedEx Cup playoffs continue this week with the BMW Championship at Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, Maryland.


    Which players are the favorites this time around, who offers good odds and what props are worth considering?


    Betting analysts Chris "The Bear" Fallica and Anita Marks offer their best bets.


    Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.



    Bets to win

    Jon Rahm to win (+650), Top-10 finish (-187)

    Fallica: Like last week, it's as chalky of a pick as one could make, but it's an obvious no-brainer to me. His last four events have resulted in a win at the U.S. Open, a T-3 at The Open, what would have been a win at the Memorial (had he not tested positive for COVID-19) and a third-place finish last week when he somehow coughed up a 2-shot lead on the back nine. As the defending champion at this event -- at a different course, mind you -- coupled with the events of last week, I expect he'll once again be right there with a chance to win.


    Bryson DeChambeau to win (+2000); Boost Top-10 finish (+275)

    Marks: Caves Valley is a big boy course, and those that can grip and rip it have a huge advantage to avoid trouble in the fairways. There are several par 4s that are 460 plus, and reachable par 5s in two for DeChambeau.


    Viktor Hovland to win (+2800); Top-10 finish (+250)

    Fallica: His weekend at Liberty National didn't end well with a 77 (42 on the front nine), but his overall play was good, going 68-67-65 in the first three rounds. That's good enough to convince me he's close to the level of play he achieved earlier this year.


    Scottie Scheffler to win (+2800); Top-10 finish (+250)

    Fallica: Well in the last few weeks, Xander Schauffele has won Olympic gold, Abraham Ancer has won a WGC and Tony Finau won the Northern Trust. Who's next to take home a big prize after chasing a win for a while? Maybe Scottie Scheffler, who's posted a Top 10 in the last two majors and played some of the best golf of his career in last year's playoffs.



    Props

    Corey Conners Top-20 finish (-110)

    Marks: Conners tied the Liberty National course record last week with a 62 on Saturday. His iron play is on point, and he's driving the ball well.


    Joaquin Niemann Top-20 finish (+100); Top South American (+115)



    Marks: Niemann loves putting on bentgrass and is a beast on Tom Fazio courses. His first tour win was at "The Old White TPC" -- a Fazio track. Niemann is another grip it and rip it golfer with a big driving distance advantage.


    Jon Rahm Top-5 finish (+125)

    Marks: I'm not picking Rahm to win, due to mental fatigue on a short workweek. His iron play is on point (over 8 strokes gained on approach at Liberty National), but does not necessarily have his vintage game on longer courses.


    Rory McIlroy Top-10 finish (+225)

    Marks: McIlroy is second in driving distance this season, and again -- that is a metric I am weighing heavily this week. He also loves Fazio courses as well as the Fed Ex Cup format.


    Charley Hoffman Top-20 finish (+250)

    Marks: Hoffman checks all the boxes for me this week -- coming off an impressive showing at the Northern Trust; 5th in driving distance, 15th in par 4 efficiency 460 yards plus, 17th in SG on approach, and 21st in GIR.


    Webb Simpson leader after 1st round (+3300)

    Marks: Caves Valley is a very unfamiliar course to many golfers who will tee it up Thursday. It is a very exclusive track -- that typically welcomes only the rich and famous -- and has not hosted many PGA Tour events. Simpson has logged the most rounds on this track of any golfer teeing it up, which is a nice advantage, especially for the first round.


    Matchups

    Justin Thomas (-110) over Collin Morikawa

    Marks: JT went back to old faithful this past week, and gained over 4 strokes in putting against the field. He's ranked 6th in par 4 efficiency 460 yards plus, so I expect him to be a birdie machine this week.

  2. #2
    jjgold
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    I get clocked betting golf especially matchups

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  3. #3
    KiDBaZkiT
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    Some shops in Vegas Rahm already down to 4-1
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  4. #4
    Cardsfan55
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    Bryson Dechambeau at 20-1! $100 to win $2000

  5. #5
    cincinnatikid513
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    rare to see a fav this big see on bet365 rahm +650 next closes guy 20-1

    this is tiger like
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  6. #6
    cincinnatikid513
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    koepka 25-1


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  7. #7
    jjgold
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    Kid why not

  8. #8
    cincinnatikid513
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    maybe fade rory if u can find any matchups

    he tired he says


    https://www.espn.com/golf/story/_/id...cal-exhaustion
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  9. #9
    jjgold
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    Rory underachiever right now has not lived up to hype

    Did not win one major last 7 years and those were prime years

  10. #10
    RudyRuetigger
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    Can I get a miracle Lucas glover in the top 10 after rd1
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  11. #11
    cincinnatikid513
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    Quote Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger View Post
    Can I get a miracle Lucas glover in the top 10 after rd1
    that's asking alot
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  12. #12
    GzaTheGenius
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    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnatikid513 View Post
    maybe fade rory if u can find any matchups

    he tired he says


    https://www.espn.com/golf/story/_/id...cal-exhaustion
    He is tired of losing

    I took him for a top 10 finish here actually, course sets up well for him

    Rahm being so heavily favored in such a good field is beyond me.


    I wouldn't doubt a Dj or Bryson victory here

  13. #13
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnatikid513 View Post
    that's asking alot
    i know




    its a fantasy lineup so its not a top 10 or loss but sure would help me
    Quote Originally Posted by GzaTheGenius View Post
    He is tired of losing

    I took him for a top 10 finish here actually, course sets up well for him

    Rahm being so heavily favored in such a good field is beyond me.


    I wouldn't doubt a Dj or Bryson victory here
    damn, its like you know my fantasy lineup


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  14. #14
    RudyRuetigger
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    Glover 3putt bogey from 8 or 9 ft on par 5

    Story of my life
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  15. #15
    cincinnatikid513
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    Quote Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger View Post
    Glover 3putt bogey from 8 or 9 ft on par 5

    Story of my life
    i think i saw some odds bovada and they had rahm bogey free round at 6-1 odds


    rudy win big like 6 figures 100k
    Last edited by cincinnatikid513; 08-26-21 at 01:20 PM.
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  16. #16
    RudyRuetigger
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    Well he finished -4 t19 which isn't bad for the price but I got fukkin smoked today in contests
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  17. #17
    jjgold
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    Rudy those are lottery tickets

    These courses too easy not golf but a video game

    Quote Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger View Post
    Well he finished -4 t19 which isn't bad for the price but I got fukkin smoked today in contests

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