1. #1
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,190
    Betpoints: 10

    Anyone Trading Political Markets At PredictIt?

    I know $800 max position but very liquid

  2. #2
    ronald
    ronald's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-31-05
    Posts: 4,918
    Betpoints: 8459

    Video poker dot com is the best place to play lots of games

  3. #3
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
    KVB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-29-14
    Posts: 74,849
    Betpoints: 7576

    $800 max position?

    Does that go up during the political season?

    If I recall, Rudy understood these markets quite a bit and was willing to try to squeeze out some profit.

  4. #4
    Snowball
    Snowball's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 11-15-09
    Posts: 30,021
    Betpoints: 3780

    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    $800 max position?

    Does that go up during the political season?

    If I recall, Rudy understood these markets quite a bit and was willing to try to squeeze out some profit.
    The max is $850 per contract, but by spending time looking at all the markets, you will discover additional contracts
    that are virtually identical. The contract is not the proposition, but only 1 of the bet props PER proposition. This is more true when there are many propositions around election time, and less true in the quiet times. Some "markets" aka propositions are just going to have 1 single possible answer, unconnected to other markets, so there's nothing you ca do about the limit, but you can try to increase profits by trading in and out.

  5. #5
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
    KVB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-29-14
    Posts: 74,849
    Betpoints: 7576

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowball View Post
    The max is $850 per contract, but by spending time looking at all the markets, you will discover additional contracts
    that are virtually identical. The contract is not the proposition, but only 1 of the bet props PER proposition.
    That makes way more sense.

  6. #6
    Snowball
    Snowball's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 11-15-09
    Posts: 30,021
    Betpoints: 3780

    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    That makes way more sense.
    for example. Republicans are 70 cents YES to win House in 2022. The Democrats NO is 69 cents.
    NO's on the other side are often lower, as people don't think to buy the other side's NO, but just bet YES on theirs.
    This makes some overspill. But there's another market for McCarthy. Who'll be the next Speaker? - a totally separate prop market. McCarthy is only 56 cents on the ask. In that market, you have Jeffries, the Democrat, Pelosi, and real low chances like Trump or Scalise, they are 3,4 cents. So, the 850 limit is doubled here, because McCarthy is basically automatic to be the Speaker if GOP wins.

    From a trading perspective if the GOP stays hot in polls, and if Trump doesn't run for Congress, that McCarthy 56 cents will rise to get closer to the GOP market price.

    In the general election times it's possible to arrange if you are clever and spend time on it more than 2 like this.

    But in reality the way to make money on PI is not connected to your limit. It's the trading on news, recognizing what will become hot before it does, and cold before it chills off. There are also scalpers.

    It's also profitable to hound over NEW/ADDED MARKETS as they are released, early bird prices, beat the crowd.
    Last edited by Snowball; 08-08-21 at 04:58 PM.

  7. #7
    Otters27
    Otters27's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-14-07
    Posts: 30,687
    Betpoints: 350

    JJ. What are odds on Desantis or a Trump Desantis ticket

  8. #8
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
    KVB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-29-14
    Posts: 74,849
    Betpoints: 7576

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowball View Post
    ..But in reality the way to make money on PI is not connected to your limit. It's the trading on news, recognizing what will become hot before it does, and cold before it chills off. ..
    Exactly, that's what Rudy understood as well. It's not about being right, or buying at the lowest and selling at the highest or just having the right side at game time.

    It's about buying low and selling for some profit, in the middle of the lowest/highest range.

    I think there is real opportunity in there, but closer to election season seems more likely to get that opportunity.

  9. #9
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,190
    Betpoints: 10

    They cover a lot of elections

    The 800 was a way to make it legal in the US And the owners signed a nonprofit clause they have a written agreement with futures exchange But it’s really not officially regulated and it’s not from the US But there’s no issues the money is safe they do tons of volume


    I think they also have a deal with coin base that’s how I post it up it’s kind of automated

  10. #10
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
    KVB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-29-14
    Posts: 74,849
    Betpoints: 7576

    Tons of volume is right. The era of Donald J. Trump has forever changed the political gambling landscape.
    Last edited by KVB; 08-08-21 at 05:44 PM. Reason: sbr glitching.

  11. #11
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,190
    Betpoints: 10

    Yes but he is still king of volume

    I also signed up at the federal regulated one But this one does not allow political elections but does have a lot of interesting events I think weather is beatable And I believe it’s 25,000 max which is really nice for big players it’s just in beta but this is going to grow fast

    kalshi

  12. #12
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
    KVB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-29-14
    Posts: 74,849
    Betpoints: 7576



    That last US election had more action than the superbowl, I believe, worldwide.

    There was huge interest.

  13. #13
    KVB
    It's not what they bring...
    KVB's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-29-14
    Posts: 74,849
    Betpoints: 7576

    SBR is broken, some ad is messing up the loading, I'm out.


Top