Get your Labor Day winner here...

**KVB** · 09-07-20, 11:29 AM

Picked up BYU at the open here Range and added them to the KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket a little later...

243

7-Sep

BYU -120

In the mud yo go!!!

**jjgold** · 09-07-20, 11:45 AM

Ranger we like the play

**KVB** · 09-07-20, 12:10 PM

Navy should have been favored by a TD, they weren't.

In fact, they couldn't even hold the 1 point favorite.

Something stinks there and the UPSET Basket sniffed it out.

Might be closer than the models predict.

**veriableodds** · 09-07-20, 12:21 PM

**Memento** · 09-07-20, 02:04 PM

Navy TT O 23.5 (-120)

**RangeFinder** · 09-07-20, 02:25 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Navy should have been favored by a TD, they weren't.

In fact, they couldn't even hold the 1 point favorite.

Something stinks there and the UPSET Basket sniffed it out.

Might be closer than the models predict.

K, the Under got jammed. What's your model say?

**KVB** · 09-07-20, 03:29 PM

Model is on the other side of both pressures in the market.

The raw forecast has Navy scoring 41 or 42 points to BYU's 27 or 28 points.

Remember, this is an early season forecast right now.

So yes, I bought BYU...lol.

I do adjust the raw forecast and the UPSET Basket should have shown a better line on BYU but I was days late posting so I posted the most available at the time.

Here's the UPSET Basket this week...

	Date	NCAAF UPSET Basket	1 Unit	Closing	Beat	BTC ML
			per bet	Line	Closer?	Average

241	5-Sep	M TENN ST +155	-1	151	Y	0.04
243	7-Sep	BYU -120
403	12-Sep	COAST CAR +150

Looks like the Coast Car line is getting away from me here.

Originally posted by KVB

I have another basket to introduce. The KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket will have an initial screen of competitive underdogs, primarily on the road. This is a moneyline basket of bets that uses a stacking percentages forecast along with market analyses to determine the appropriate play.

There could be quite a few plays in this basket as well. It will be tracked and again it can be used as a gauge but has had a very decent ROI over the last few years by itself. There will not be large underdogs in this basket as one of the factors will be competitive underdogs. If a competitive underdog is mispriced and is large upset in the market, it won’t fall into this basket, even though it may be a good bet....

**pavyracer** · 09-07-20, 03:39 PM

https://twitter.com/i/status/1185736701131608069

**Orbison** · 09-07-20, 03:41 PM

BYU is better and bigger in the trenches on both sides and returns their QB but lost their stud TE. Navy with new QB but all top RBs are back, secondary might be an issue though. i hate backing BYU no matter the opponent or location, but trust them even less as road chalk. also had limited time to prepare for the Navy option

passing on pre-game action, will look for value in-game

**PaperTrail07** · 09-07-20, 05:00 PM

Navy will fumble the game away IMO

**KVB** · 09-07-20, 05:14 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Navy should have been favored by a TD, they weren't.

In fact, they couldn't even hold the 1 point favorite.

Something stinks there and the UPSET Basket sniffed it out.

Might be closer than the models predict.

Originally posted by RangeFinder

K, the Under got jammed. What's your model say?

That public gauge I make says navy wins 31-24.

Even CRIS opened this thing at Navy -3 but didn't hang the moneyline until dropping the line. Like I said, should have a better number on the BYU moneyline but they were tough to get even from the outset.

Books like 5D got away with bigger early moneylines on BYU but they can do that because as I mentioned in another post in some other thread lol, the risk managment quickly neutralizes us early buyers there.

Money is driving the market up for BYU, slowly but surely and while it does make some sense, the way the books are upping the line is a little odd. It's either hold off and blink, or move early or do nothing.

It seems there was the early move and while they appeared to hold off once all the houses picked up the line, it's been more of a slow bleed up. While things have slowed, it's possible we are seeing an attempt to create steam on BYU in light of what is basically split action.

In another hour we should see just what the books were planning here, they'll make the move, or make none. Does it give us the answer, not necessarily, but I see a competitive game here and if the BYU line continues to climb and they are not the answer, then Navy could make it embarrassing for the BYU backers as it's not what they bring...

Let's see what happens in that last hour of trading.

**KVB** · 09-07-20, 05:18 PM

I almost forgot, lol.

I picked up the UNDER in my main NCAAF Totals Fund on the morning of September 4th...

Originally posted by KVB

The KVB NCAAF Totals Fund has picked up...

244 BYU/NAVY UNDER 49.5 (-106)...

Just might beat the market here before it's all said and done.

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**KVB** · 09-07-20, 07:28 PM

BYU shuts down the Navy Rushing attack right off the bat.

That's not good for Navy. Army played ball control, Navy needs to, but not a good start for them.

**KVB** · 09-07-20, 08:47 PM

**pologq** · 09-07-20, 08:55 PM

i just came for the mud wrestling

**jjgold** · 09-07-20, 09:00 PM

What a mismatch

**KVB** · 09-07-20, 09:07 PM

**Shute** · 09-07-20, 09:16 PM

Tomorrow is a new day Ranger
Pick up the pieces and move on
Best of luck

**Bostongambler** · 09-07-20, 09:27 PM

Best of luck with your future wagers, Glenn.

**KnuckleHeadz** · 09-07-20, 09:29 PM

Will Navy even score Glenn?

**veriableodds** · 09-07-20, 09:33 PM

a new day ranger