New Edges and Angles for when sports come back

[Chi_archie]

rare opportunity when Mainstream sports are playing full force for us here.

Many long held trends will be out the window, so what are some things you'll be looking towards to try to gain an edge?


If Players are isolated from families for long periods of time do we create an algorithm that factors in how long a player has been married, how many kids he is away from, away from a pregnant wife ect? get a sum of the # for each team and see how that plays out early, as a replacement to home/away angle? Will teams with many bachelors do well in this environment?

in MLB obviously pitcher arm health and how that relates to how they are coddled in their offseason, spring training, early season prep and oftentimes resulting dead arms are big things to follow. How do you see arm health playing out in this weird season? Can we get good info on how various pitchers have been training during the past 3 months?


drug testing? how does that look in this novel season?

[Sam Odom]

Archie

when you figure this out... Sammy will tail you

[Chi_archie]

Archie

when you figure this out... Sammy will tail you

I'll keep everyone apprised

if I still have the desire to spend the time to figure anything out

[TheMetsSuck]

Home field advantage definitely not as important in soccer than it was with fans. Lotta value on away teams pretty much playing on a neutral field at regular odds

[El Nino]

Need to find out which teams are getting the ACE HOOKERS sent to their hotels. Women weaken the legs. Could be hugh edge.

[pavyracer]

For football the games will be low scoring. Without fans the players would want the games to be over as soon as possible as there is no incentive for owners to sell more beer at the stadium. Many games will go under the total.

[KVB]

For football the games will be low scoring. Without fans the players would want the games to be over as soon as possible as there is no incentive for owners to sell more beer at the stadium. Many games will go under the total.

TV contract and ad slots will supersede the lost stadium sales. Games might go Under, but not likely for the reasons you post.

[Golden fleece]

fade good home teams against the number might not be a bad idea

[d2bets]

Hard to tell until we see lines and line adjustments.

But generally, I'd think playing underdogs smarter than playing chalk.

[lakerboy]

Bases will be different because they are starting fresh. Everyone else is coming back to finish except NFL I guess but I'm not looking at that. Soccer generally favorites are winning

[seaborneq]

Throw everything out if the window that you’ve ever known. This is a brand new world we are venturing. I know for me personally if I start out losing badly I'm not going to try to figure out how to find new edges and angles. I’m going to quit betting for awhile. I don’t think future betting will be a get back on your horse proposition for a while. Be ready to cut your losses as soon as possible.

[KVB]

Throw everything out if the window that you’ve ever known. This is a brand new world we are venturing. I know for me personally if I start out losing badly I'm not going to try to figure out how to find new edges and angles. I’m going to quit betting for awhile. I don’t think future betting will be a get back on your horse proposition for a while. Be ready to cut your losses as soon as possible.

Tell me about it. For MLB, a large portion of what I do requires the first third of the season or so to go by, maybe a little less.

Going to have to scrap multiple programs for this season as the mountain of data will come too late.

For NBA I was in the middle of an aggressive trading strategy and was posting the whole thing, inlcuding how we backtest to get there. We were on a roll with steam ahead, +35 units, then it shut down.

It would dangerous for me to assume that we enter the same market we left, where the bets and unit sizes were extremely aggressive.

I'm down some strategies for sure, but I'm not out.

[funnyb25]

Look for some cappers to have the best runs of their lives. Not knowing a damn thing can only help.

[rm18]

I think it will mostly only matter in the regular season games which don't mean a lot. In playoffs guys more dialed in.

[JIBBBY]

As said home court won't matter now with empty arenas and stadiums.

Bet the better team period especially when the odds are favoring the home team only because they are playing at home...

[KVB]

I think it will mostly only matter in the regular season games which don't mean a lot. In playoffs guys more dialed in.

I 100% agree here and am targeting the playoffs. Not sure if the playoffs will have the added rules though.

[seaborneq]

Tell me about it. For MLB, a large portion of what I do requires the first third of the season or so to go by, maybe a little less.

Going to have to scrap multiple programs for this season as the mountain of data will come too late.

For NBA I was in the middle of an aggressive trading strategy and was posting the whole thing, inlcuding how we backtest to get there. We were on a roll with steam ahead, +35 units, then it shut down.

It would dangerous for me to assume that we enter the same market we left, where the bets and unit sizes were extremely aggressive.

I'm down some strategies for sure, but I'm not out.

It just doesn’t make any sense to lose your ass off the next few months when you don’t have any stats, points of references, trends, etc to draw from for an edge or strategy. This will be no better than playing slots and hoping you hit the jackpot. Don’t be broke and clueless. I don’t believe the players in any of the sports mindsets will be the same either. I feel powerless in a game of superheroes right now. I can see myself sitting out early and waiting until football season and hoping for the best.

[Brock Landers]

Bad teams will be REALLY bad. They're not going to improve over 60 games. Fading will be the name of the game

[pavyracer]

Brock Landers how much money have you lost lifetime betting sports? Has to be 6 digits. You are in no position to give gambling advice.

[Brock Landers]

Brock Landers how much money have you lost lifetime betting sports? Has to be 6 digits. You are in no position to give gambling advice.

Did you participate in burning the Wendy's in Atlanta?

[jjgold]

Brock a professional gambler

[stake1]

Brock a professional gambler

Hahahahaha!

[jjgold]

Unders only angle

[pologq]

i can see good teams in baseball trying to coast once they know they have a spot locked up or no they can lock a spot up. no need to bust their ass given that 16 teams make the playoffs unless they really really want home field. its not like 162 games and you got teams like the dodgers and yankees trying to win 100-110 games. yankees might give quick hooks to cole and tanaka so as to keep him fresh and let the bullpen do the work.

[manny24]

charge calls will be removed from NBA quicker than brock got fired from uber eats

[Chi_archie]

i can see good teams in baseball trying to coast once they know they have a spot locked up or no they can lock a spot up. no need to bust their ass given that 16 teams make the playoffs unless they really really want home field. its not like 162 games and you got teams like the dodgers and yankees trying to win 100-110 games. yankees might give quick hooks to cole and tanaka so as to keep him fresh and let the bullpen do the work.

something to think about.

But if anything I think pitchers are going to want to get their every 5th day more than ever, so that they can be sharp once playoffs come around. Long season fatigue will not factor in

[Sam Odom]

brock landers how much money have you lost lifetime betting sports? Has to be 6 digits.

$300k +/-

[miabos]

Long term effects of players/athletes who tested positive for the corona virus could play a role in sports betting. Any player/athlete suffering symptoms after testing positive for the corona virus, could sustain long term effects. This could cause a lack in their overall performance. It is basically another injury which can be used for handicapping. Medical professionals are learning more each day about the severity of damage to the lungs and other health related issues. Remember those athletes who have tested positive and monitor their performance once they return. Good luck to everyone betting when sports return. To all, stay healthy.

[d2bets]

Long term effects of players/athletes who tested positive for the corona virus could play a role in sports betting. Any player/athlete suffering symptoms after testing positive for the corona virus, could sustain long term effects. This could cause a lack in their overall performance. It is basically another injury which can be used for handicapping. Medical professionals are learning more each day about the severity of damage to the lungs and other health related issues. Remember those athletes who have tested positive and monitor their performance once they return. Good luck to everyone betting when sports return. To all, stay healthy.

Will we know who's had covid before? Is there a current running list?

[KVB]

Long term effects of players/athletes who tested positive for the corona virus could play a role in sports betting. Any player/athlete suffering symptoms after testing positive for the corona virus, could sustain long term effects. This could cause a lack in their overall performance. It is basically another injury which can be used for handicapping. Medical professionals are learning more each day about the severity of damage to the lungs and other health related issues. Remember those athletes who have tested positive and monitor their performance once they return. Good luck to everyone betting when sports return. To all, stay healthy.

I can see where you're going with this, and it's a valid thought, but...

Any "lack of performance" no matter the cause, has a way to be dealt with in sports, like next man up.

Unless it's an all star, I don't see long term covid affect bleeding into sports betting. They can sit a guy and figure out what's wrong.

An all star or necesary player might be forced a little harder though. Not sure we get an actionable betting angle with potential long term covid effects.

[miabos]

Will we know who's had covid before? Is there a current running list?

It is difficult to find all players who have been tested positive for the corona virus. Searching for them on google is the best until you to find a site that lists them. 247sports.com and ajc.com sports links worked for me. Like most betting angles or edges it will probably be short lived. Every little edge or angle we can find, hopefully makes us better cappers. Good Luck

[miabos]

I can see where you're going with this, and it's a valid thought, but...

Any "lack of performance" no matter the cause, has a way to be dealt with in sports, like next man up.

Unless it's an all star, I don't see long term covid affect bleeding into sports betting. They can sit a guy and figure out what's wrong.

An all star or necesary player might be forced a little harder though. Not sure we get an actionable betting angle with potential long term covid effects.

This is a new betting angle I thought about. Just putting it out there, more of a crap shoot than anything. Thanks for responding and good luck KVB.

[jjgold]

edges factored into the lines quickly

[sosawestbrook]

as if they are playing a completely different game then they did just a few months ago?

home court dynamics have been removed completely in some sports. thats literally it. adjust accordingly.

everything else superfluous.

[seaborneq]

as if they are playing a completely different game then they did just a few months ago?

home court dynamics have been removed completely in some sports. thats literally it. adjust accordingly.

everything else superfluous.

Not playing a different game, but if you think everyone will be in prime high peak conditioning at the first tip or pitch you are sadly mistakened. You can’t handicap how diligently someone stayed in shape during the delay unless you see it.