Gulfstream Park Saturday 4/4 Thread

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  • Louisvillekid1
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-17-07
    • 52143

    #1
    Gulfstream Park Saturday 4/4 Thread
    Card is very hard on the eyes.


    There is a lot of low level races on the card, and its not your typical saturday form.


    Nothing wrong with those races to handicap individually, but its difficult to string them together on the multi race bets. (which I mostly play)


    Basically want I’m saying (especially to the new guys) is don’t get hurt today.


    To play this game long term, you can’t be a robot and treat every card the same.


    I’ll post the official plays before races,


    Race 1


    #5 Big Treasure (8/1) , 3 year old has some runnings lines that fit here, on the drop. #8 Blessed Journey (2/1), Plummets to this 16k level, Top rider enticed. #3 Punchline (7/2) , Lowest tag to date, drops for the 4th consecutive race, but this 6 figure purchase needs to step up the speed figures. #12 Duellist (9/2) ,4 year colt is awfully camera shy, but must be left in the mix. #14 Fayez (8/1) & #11 Perfect Enough , Logical underneath. #2 Boogadi Steel (30/1) , Firster doesn’t need to be much vs these. Not feeling this race at all. I suppose there is some value top choice at that number.


    Race 2


    Ugly first two races to start out this card. Only thing I’ll say about this 8k claimer is that there is a ton of speed going this mile distance. Should set up for a horse to come off the pace. The favorites are horses with similar running styles. Could set up for the #8 Transistor (6/1) ,or #5 Millionare Runner (9/2)


    Race 3


    Another ugly race, but #11 Bella Gianna (12/1) , Gets back on the dirt, after setting the pace and quitting. Drops down in class, and this 4 year old chestnut filly, might get things her way at a price.


    Race 4


    #8 Nothing for Free (7/2) , Debut race vs tougher came back strong, take the big drop, for top connections. 4 year old gelding should take big step forward at second asking. #9 War Act (9/2) , Has the right running style for these, must be used. #1 Mighty Fast (6/1) , Saez on the rail for an improving horse.


    Race 5


    #9 Moon Eyes (5/2) , Top Flight connections, cannot be ignored. #1 Little Bella (2/1) , Joel rides this 4 year old filly who keeps improving and is 3rd off the layoff today. Logical. #4 Domineer (8/1) , Goes back to the grass, Adds blinkers, drops in class and gets pilot upgrade who could get more outta this 3 year old filly early. #7 Abarrio Forver (20/1) , Should like getting back on the lawn, intriguing placement at a big #.


    Race 6


    #8 Kozy Dreams (6/1) , Gets a jockey upgrade, first off the claim for new barn. Could get the trip. #9 May Day Info (8/1), 3 year old filly has been working well for the debut, Joel enticed. #12 Awesomenewyear (8/1) , Finsihed 3rd behind top choice in the last, and finally gets lasix. #13 Granny Bradley (15/1) , drops in for the tag, and the speed #’s fit. #1 Ebony Bay (9/2) , Drops in class, after a meh debut, barn will have this one improved at second asking. #5 Irish Thunder (10/1) , always takes money and 50% board hitter, makes some sense underneath. #4 Bardot (2/1) , Debuting for top flight connections, but zero chance I can take anywhere near this price.


    Race 7


    #7 Im the Captain Now (3/1) , 6 year old gelding should get the perfect trip for connections that are rolling. #10 Mystical Moon (9/2) , Another who should get the nice setup, Dylan starting to figure out the track. #4 Slick Star (20/1) , hidden horse who has tactical speed to stalk off this predicted pace. #2 Crown Moon (7/2) , Loaded with speed, but could get caught up with others in here.


    Race 8


    #7 Hotty Toddy (6/1) , Could get the setup here, and this 6 year old mare should be flying late @ a Better price than the #2 Ghostly Beauty (3/1) , Just missed last 2 under Irad, gonna get beat up at windows, and will try and beat this 4 year old filly. And #3 Lookinlikequeen (5/2) , another short price, that’s very logical, must include both of these, but still trying to beat them. #1 Lady Panda (10/1) , In great form and working well to try winners for the first time.


    Race 9


    #1 Mobeatyabad (7/2) , Big fan of this barn and could rate off the speed here. #5 Inter Miami (5/2) , Spoke about this horse while writing on Friday’s card had the lead and took a bad step at saturday. Is wheeled right back and could easily wire the field, on the drop. But might get harassed by #4 Cigar Box (8/1) , early.


    Race 10


    #9 Penalty (12/1), Might get the perfect trip, #11 Halladay (6/1), will need to stalk and could get first run on my top choice. 4 year colt is always involved #2 Kroy (6/1) , Danny Gargan has some crazy numbers and although this one is coming off the 9 month layoff, This reunited pilot has done some great work on this 6 year old gelding in the past, and their styles fit each other perfectly. might need to rate here as the speed duel could prove too much. #3 First Premio (7/2) , Bring a boat load of class, and its another off the bench for a while. Gargan’s Other #4 Dr. Shane (9/2) , Fits the uncoupled entry nicely, as should be stalking off the pace. #5 Mai Ty One On (12/1) , is 18 outta 25 in the money and makes some sense undeather. #6 Thunder Ride (20/1) , Will be bother the top choice on the front end early, but doesn’t have the class for these. #8 Class and Cash (4/1) , Will be sent early as well.


    Race 11


    #1 Tomcat Black (8/1) , 3 year old colt is improving at every asking and must be included, with red hot tyler. #3 I’ll fight Dempsey (9/5) , was very impressive in the debut, and has been lights out in the mornings, Another must use. #4 Sonneman (5/2) , Is another you have have to include trying winners for the first time. #7 Masterday (8/1) , coming outta the fountain of youth is difficult to leave off, but i believe i stop below the top 3. #8 Acre (9/2) , Kept some kept some great company as a 2 year old, and was sent to the bench, Mott can win with these, but this is a big ask today.


    Race 12


    #4 Sweet Story (8/1) , Doubt this one goes off this high, Just missed last out, and has 8 lifetimes wins, big player. #8 Avenida Mañana (9/5) , won 4 of 5 and is a must use. #9 Trilby (9/2) , Tyler gets aboard a live runner here, this is a deep field. #12 Paint the Corners (10/1) , Just yet another runner that’s always around. #3 Vitaemi (20/1) , Has been within 2 lengths in the past 3 races. Generous # here. #6 Bahama Kitten (15/1) , Another who always seems to be close. This is going to a wild finish.


    Crazy finale race to handicap
  • Jellymancan
    SBR MVP
    • 03-09-20
    • 3682

    #2
    You're right, tough card, many options. I can single a couple races but horizontals will be brutal. Bad couple of days yesterday and today, so will tread carefully tomorrow. Made a lot of dumb moves today.
    Comment
    • pimike
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 03-23-08
      • 37139

      #3
      Thanks
      Comment
      • Louisvillekid1
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 10-17-07
        • 52143

        #4
        Originally posted by Jellymancan
        You're right, tough card, many options. I can single a couple races but horizontals will be brutal. Bad couple of days yesterday and today, so will tread carefully tomorrow. Made a lot of dumb moves today.
        it happens , I learn everyday
        Comment
        • Louisvillekid1
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 10-17-07
          • 52143

          #5
          If I play multi race bets I’ll be going super cheap

          lots if people spread out with crazy tickets on a card like this and still miss

          but again , another punter might love the card

          everyone sees this game differently
          Comment
          • Louisvillekid1
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 10-17-07
            • 52143

            #6
            had a nice 2 days

            but I’m struggling sat card

            was going try Oaklawn instead but

            don’t feel like putting in the time for 2 tracks

            Could use your guys help tomorrow

            seeing anything that jumps out?

            share your singles

            ty
            Comment
            • Jellymancan
              SBR MVP
              • 03-09-20
              • 3682

              #7
              A couple that stand out a little higher MLs than I thought they'd be. You mentioned both.

              R3
              #11 Bella Gianna- Not sure how the heck he's 12-1 ML, his speed numbers make him dangerous in here. If Burgos gets him out well at a good trip should win. Curious to see final odds

              R10
              #9 Penalty (#3 and #11 make sense) but this one at 12-1 ML is a solid bet, just beat Largent who won last weekend, Mott second +180 32%, Zayas two in a row in reach.

              Other longshots who caught my eye.
              R1 #2 Boogadi Steel
              R5 #4 Domineer, #5 De Pura Sangre
              R7 #5 King Leonardo
              R8 #1 Lady Panda
              R10 #2 Kroy, #6 Thunder Ride, #5 Mai T One On
              Last edited by Jellymancan; 04-03-20, 09:50 PM.
              Comment
              • jjgold
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 07-20-05
                • 388189

                #8
                Kid never
                Sleeps

                Too bad some top
                Jocks ran away from Gulfstream
                Comment
                • Louisvillekid1
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 10-17-07
                  • 52143

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Jellymancan
                  A couple that stand out a little higher MLs than I thought they'd be. You mentioned both.

                  R3
                  #11 Bella Gianna- Not sure how the heck he's 12-1 ML, his speed numbers make him dangerous in here. If Burgos gets him out well at a good trip should win. Curious to see final odds

                  R10
                  #9 Penalty (#3 and #11 make sense) but this one at 12-1 ML is a solid bet, just beat Largent who won last weekend, Mott second +180 32%, Zayas two in a row in reach.
                  I put both on top , but zero chance I’m leaving first premio off a ticket... penalty for a win bet for sure at that number but I can’t single
                  Comment
                  • Louisvillekid1
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 10-17-07
                    • 52143

                    #10
                    Originally posted by jjgold
                    Kid never
                    Sleeps

                    Too bad some top
                    Jocks ran away from Gulfstream
                    We good JJ

                    I’m not scared to admit I don’t have a good feel a card

                    this game everyday is different

                    learning to manage that is the key

                    can’t hit a home run every day

                    gotta take what they offer

                    for years I tried to hit every pick 4/5

                    im maturing a lot as a wagerer

                    and trusting the handicapping
                    Comment
                    • Louisvillekid1
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 10-17-07
                      • 52143

                      #11
                      I miss NY racing , won’t lie
                      Comment
                      • Jellymancan
                        SBR MVP
                        • 03-09-20
                        • 3682

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Louisvillekid1
                        I put both on top , but zero chance I’m leaving first premio off a ticket... penalty for a win bet for sure at that number but I can’t single
                        Yeah. Tough to have confident singles tomorrow. I'll do some cheap horizontals couple win bets but most will be low $. Tyler on that horse is a must play, especially how he's been riding this week.
                        Comment
                        • Louisvillekid1
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 10-17-07
                          • 52143

                          #13
                          Watching any given Sunday

                          havent seen in a while

                          was way ahead of its time

                          but this is classic

                          Comment
                          • Louisvillekid1
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 10-17-07
                            • 52143

                            #14
                            scratches

                            1. 14,15,16
                            2. 7,8,9
                            3. 2,9,13,14,15,16
                            6. 3 #13 runs
                            8. 3,512,13
                            9. 7
                            10. 7,12
                            Comment
                            • Ventura
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 09-06-17
                              • 226

                              #15
                              Early pick 5

                              1,5,8,12
                              3,10
                              8,11
                              2,5,8,9
                              1
                              Comment
                              • jjgold
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 07-20-05
                                • 388189

                                #16
                                Good luck kid
                                Comment
                                • Louisvillekid1
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 10-17-07
                                  • 52143

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Ventura
                                  Early pick 5

                                  1,5,8,12
                                  3,10
                                  8,11
                                  2,5,8,9
                                  1
                                  My ticket looks very similar


                                  first 2 races are brutal
                                  Comment
                                  • Ventura
                                    SBR High Roller
                                    • 09-06-17
                                    • 226

                                    #18
                                    First race is absolutely terrible. I think the one-paced-plodder Barbie’s King finds a way to make first run today and get there.
                                    Comment
                                    • Louisvillekid1
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 10-17-07
                                      • 52143

                                      #19
                                      Actually I’m just playing the pick 4

                                      Opener can go so many directions

                                      I can’t even predict who gets the lead, maybe the 7
                                      Comment
                                      • Louisvillekid1
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 10-17-07
                                        • 52143

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Ventura
                                        First race is absolutely terrible. I think the one-paced-plodder Barbie’s King finds a way to make first run today and get there.
                                        lol been looking at it for so long

                                        and thought hector on top from rail also

                                        I think the pick 5 is gonna pay huge

                                        and saffie just giving away the 10 in the second , coming outta Navarro barn and tuned up work begging to be claimed
                                        Comment
                                        • Louisvillekid1
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 10-17-07
                                          • 52143

                                          #21
                                          I don’t wanna invest so much in pick 5 then keep playing back

                                          might single the 1 for cheap
                                          Comment
                                          • Louisvillekid1
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 10-17-07
                                            • 52143

                                            #22
                                            Tyler has pace to run at in this field either on the 12
                                            Comment
                                            • Ventura
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 09-06-17
                                              • 226

                                              #23
                                              I think the 3 and 7 go to the front. 1 will be close.
                                              Comment
                                              • Louisvillekid1
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 10-17-07
                                                • 52143

                                                #24
                                                Race one is terrible and wide open so just taking a cheap shot because it’s gonna be huge payout early pick 5... and it’s only another $24 to play back the pick 4...
                                                Early pick 5
                                                1
                                                3,10
                                                8,11
                                                1,8,9
                                                1,4,7,9 ($24)
                                                Comment
                                                • Louisvillekid1
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 10-17-07
                                                  • 52143

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Ventura
                                                  I think the 3 and 7 go to the front. 1 will be close.
                                                  Plus I couldn’t single Joel on the back end

                                                  the pick 3 is the strongest of the sequence

                                                  I’m no sold the 3 and the 10 don’t kill each other in the 2nd , it was good the 7 scratched
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Ventura
                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                    • 09-06-17
                                                    • 226

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Louisvillekid1
                                                    lol been looking at it for so long

                                                    and thought hector on top from rail also

                                                    I think the pick 5 is gonna pay huge

                                                    and saffie just giving away the 10 in the second , coming outta Navarro barn and tuned up work begging to be claimed
                                                    2nd race if I go any deeper I’d use the 5. I really like the 3 in that race though.

                                                    Fun fact - In November 2018 we offered $7,000 for the 1 in the 1st race. Extremely happy we never got a response on that one.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Louisvillekid1
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 10-17-07
                                                      • 52143

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by Ventura
                                                      2nd race if I go any deeper I’d use the 5. I really like the 3 in that race though.

                                                      Fun fact - In November 2018 we offered $7,000 for the 1 in the 1st race. Extremely happy we never got a response on that one.
                                                      Agree almost singled the 3... Think the 10 might be a dead horse, but tyler did aboard.

                                                      The 5 will moving late
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Ventura
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 09-06-17
                                                        • 226

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by Louisvillekid1
                                                        Agree almost singled the 3... Think the 10 might be a dead horse, but tyler did aboard.

                                                        The 5 will moving late
                                                        All three scratches in that race are vet scratches and this one is still in. If they win and lose the horse they still should turn a small profit. I have no clue what Saffie charges for a day rate.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Jellymancan
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 03-09-20
                                                          • 3682

                                                          #29
                                                          P5
                                                          1,2,3,5
                                                          3,10
                                                          8,10,11
                                                          1,8
                                                          1

                                                          Gl guys.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Ventura
                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                            • 09-06-17
                                                            • 226

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by Jellymancan
                                                            P5
                                                            1,2,3,5
                                                            3,10
                                                            8,10,11
                                                            1,8
                                                            1

                                                            Gl guys.
                                                            Good luck
                                                            Comment
                                                            • gauchojake
                                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                              • 09-17-10
                                                              • 34103

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by Louisvillekid1
                                                              Tyler has pace to run at in this field either on the 12
                                                              He has been on fire.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Louisvillekid1
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 10-17-07
                                                                • 52143

                                                                #32
                                                                Strikes again
                                                                Comment
                                                                • gauchojake
                                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                  • 09-17-10
                                                                  • 34103

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by gauchojake
                                                                  He has been on fire.
                                                                  Stays on fire
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Louisvillekid1
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 10-17-07
                                                                    • 52143

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Oh well play back pick 4
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • JayTris07
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 05-10-14
                                                                      • 3010

                                                                      #35
                                                                      GL Kid,
                                                                      Comment
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