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Dodgers (Kershaw) -170 / Yankees (German) +160
OK, your pal Nasher just spent the last hour breaking down this ESPN main event just looking for a reason to fade Kershaw and the Dodgers.
First Kershaw.
He's having a bona fide Cy Young season.
Overall 13 and 2 with an ERA of 2.71 and a WH/IP of 1.02
He and the Dodgers are 18-4 in all 22 starts he's made.
Stellar numbers, even more stellar when you factor in the golf balls he has to pitch with in this arena baseball age.
147 K's in 141 IP's. Solid. That's 9 per 9 innings pitched.
I checked out all 22 of his previous starts this year (tonight is start number 23)
He hasn't missed a turn all season.
In those 22 starts he's given up 4 or more runs only three times. (that's 18 quality starts)
He's pitched six innings or more every time out.
Now here's why Clayton is vulnerable in the post season and late in the regular season.
Too many pitches thrown.
Look at his game logs. The fewest number of pitches thrown in a game was 84 and that was on opening day.
17 times CK has thrown 90 plus pitches, five times 100 plus.
Too many damn pitches. How can you not develop rubber arm with that pace?
Now I was looking at his last eight starts from the beginning of July up until tonight.
Eight starts, all of them is classified as 'quality starts'
I'm going to post his last eight, his last start he gave up three solo homers to the Jays.
And what about that 8/1 start against San Diego? 6 hits and 5 walks?
Are they really quality starts?
Bottom line though is in those eight games he's 6 and 0 with a no decision loss and a no decision win.
Date Opp Rslt Dec IP H R ER BB SO Pit Jul 5 SDP L,2-3 7 5 2 1 1 9 96 Jul 15 @ PHI W,16-2 W(8-2) 6 4 1 1 2 7 101 Jul 20 MIA W,10-6 6 2 0 0 1 10 97 Jul 27 @ WSN W,9-3 W(9-2) 6 3 2 2 3 9 94 Aug 1 SDP W,8-2 W(10-2) 6 6 2 2 5 5 87 Aug 6 STL W,3-1 W(11-2) 7 4 1 1 1 9 101 Aug 14 @ MIA W,9-1 W(12-2) 7 2 0 0 0 10 90 Aug 20 TOR W,16-3 W(13-2) 6 6 3 3 3 6 89
What I'm wondering is when is that 'clunker' coming?
Is it going to come?
Now onto the Dodgers, yes they are home beasts.
Yes they won yesterday 2-1.
But they haven't scored in the last two against New York (winning 2-1 and losing 10-2 in a very ugly loss)
That's 4 runs in their last two and even though LA beat bottom feeders Blue Jays 3-2 and 2-1.
In their last four all at home the Dodgers have scored only nine runs.
Now that's not cause for warning alarms however it must be noted the bats are sleeping.
Yankees start Domingo German.
He sports a 16-3 record with a league average 4.15 ERA and a rock solid 1.14
Being in the tri-state area I'm in the New York market and I get to see German pitch.
He's got one problem and one problem only his home run rate is rather high yielding 27 of them which accounts for the four ERA.
Know this and know this well. German can be as nasty as any starter in the league.
Onto the Yankees.
They are a top four left handed pitcher hitting team in the majors (BA OBA and OPS)
Kershaw isn't any ordinary lefty though but the Yanks hit them.
Your pal Nasher is going to try the Yanks at +160 and here's why.
I'm banking on New York to keep this close and work Kershaw's pitch count.
If successful they have a very real chance of winning this game late due to the Dodgers ordinary bullpen and that's being kind, if this is a bullpen game late the Yanks have the superior relief corp and that's not debatable.
The total sits firm at 8.5 the over is juiced to the high heavens at -120 and some books are asking -125.
I want to wager the under but I'm not totally convinced due to the Dodger bullpen.
Your pal Nasher however will back the Yankees small. 40 to win 64 US dollars.
I'm looking forward to this game.
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Originally Posted by SEAHAWKHARRY
