Pats +3.5(-120)

[DJK]

Just saw this tweet. Clete Blakeman is the referee that measured all of NE's football air pressures and accused NE of cheating because all balls came out as lower than 12.5 PSI albeit he used his own gauge and not authorized by the NFL.


Clete Blakeman is going to be the head official for the Patriots Chiefs game, so take all your money and bet it on the Chiefs. Sad day for Pats fans.

[DJK]

Just saw this tweet. Clete Blakeman is the referee that measured all of NE's football air pressures and accused NE of cheating because all balls came out as lower than 12.5 PSI albeit he used his own gauge and not authorized by the NFL.


Clete Blakeman is going to be the head official for the Patriots Chiefs game, so take all your money and bet it on the Chiefs. Sad day for Pats fans.

Another tweet about Blakeman.


So Clete Blakeman is officiating the AFC Title game between the Chiefs and Patriots. He was a major player in the deflategate charade. An anti-Patriots conspirator. The game has already begun and the Chiefs are winning it. Pats are gonna be playing 11 on 18 out there.

[DJK]

I guess NFL is so hard-on getting the two highest scoring teams for the Super Bowl that they would even use referees to fix the games. That's really sad.

I guess they want the Rams vs the Chiefs rematch since that was one of the highest rated MNF game.

What the hell.

Bet accordingly.

[DJK]

Another tweet about Blakeman.


So Clete Blakeman is officiating the AFC Title game between the Chiefs and Patriots. He was a major player in the deflategate charade. An anti-Patriots conspirator. The game has already begun and the Chiefs are winning it. Pats are gonna be playing 11 on 18 out there.

One more


@FoxNews@CNN@NFL@nflcommish Hoe in Gods name is the commissioner allowing Clete Blakeman to referee the Patriots very Chiefs game? This is criminal. This is a no win situation for the Patriots and the league. STOP THIS NOW!!!

[DJK]

Team records when Blakeman was the referee.

Blakeman started his NFL officiating career as a field judge in 2008 before being promoted to referee in 2010. Here's a look at how the Patriots and Chiefs have done when Blakeman served as the ref in one of their games. SPOILER ALERT: The Patriots have been worse (stats via Pro Football Reference).

• Patriots: 3-5 (including 0-1 in 2018)
• Chiefs: 6-2 (including 1-1 in 2018)

[DJK]

Well, this is an interesting fact.

From 2008 to last year where 22 Conference Championship games were played, only TWO away teams who were underdogs won straight up.

Baltimore as +8 dog beat NE by 28-13 in 2013.
NYG as +2 dog beat San Francisco by 20-17 in 2012.

That's how difficult it is for the away dogs to win in the Conference Championship games.

Heck, if that's the case, I might as well just tease the two favorite home teams and I have the highest odd to win than teasing any away dogs. However, that Baltimore win by 15 in 2013 was anomaly as they had arguably one of the best defenses ever that year.

KC defense of 2018 <<<<< Baltimore Defense of 2013

So, I think I may have to stick with NE on the teaser just in case they beat KC by more than 3 whereas I don't see KC beating NE by more than 10.


That's my final answer and I'm putting it in before I change my mind.

[DJK]

Well, I don't know what type of bettors are at Pinnacle, but they are betting against my teams.

Screw them; except that it's higher juiced on KC -3 across the board, which means at the moment more money is definitely on the Patriots even though the bet percentages are higher for KC for both SBR and Sports Insights.

It's the same with the Rams vs the Saints where more money is definitely on the Rams.

I guess I will have to rely on the tweets to know for sure where the hell more money is bet on before the kick offs.

[DJK]

I am so tempted to throw that 1K on a 4 team teaser by adding both UNDERs along with NE and NO.

I might just pull the trigger for a slightly less amount and sweat through the games.

[shocka1212]

I am so tempted to throw that 1K on a 4 team teaser by adding both UNDERs along with NE and NO.

I might just pull the trigger for a slightly less amount and sweat through the games.

just parlay LA and KC... pays 3 to 1.

[DJK]

just parlay LA and KC... pays 3 to 1.

They are the opposites of what I want. I'm not sure if I would want to do that.

The only way that's going to happen is if the tweets come out saying a lot more money is on NE and NO, which I highly doubt will happen.

[Pinoy-T-X]

Good luck on your bets. I think both home teams win and also both the OVERs.

[DJK]

I am way over thinking this when it's rather quite simple.

Who are the two teams that beat the strongest of the opponents left?

New England beating the hot LA Chargers and New Orleans beating the streaking Philadelphia Eagles.

The Rams barely beat the Cowgirls and KC beat an over-matched Indy who hasn't played any decent offensive teams.

The stronger teams prevail in the Conference Championship games, so it's the Patriots and the Saints.

I'm going to parlay them and tease them all with both unders and make out like a bandit. Oh boy, I cannot wait to count my winning 100 bills.


The only thing I have to watch out for is Blakeman, but fuk him as someone will take care of him too.

[19th Hole]

The last time a team went to the Super Bowl that won a road playoff game at all was the 2012.
Home teams in the conference championships are 10-0 over the past five seasons and 8-2 ATS.

[House]

KC rolls ... Last 4 games they played 3 of 4 in NE and the Chiefs have won two of them ... 42 -27 Chiefs @ NE last year ..43-40 Pats @ NE this year , 27-20 two years ago in the playoffs @ NE and 41-14 the last time Brady played at Arrowhead in 2014 .... Brady 3 and 5 on the road this year and 1-3 lifetime at KC ..... KC covers first half and game, not to mention do you know when a last time a road team won on the way to the Super Bowl ? Its been 6 years ... Im rolling with those odds ...Give me the home team in this one BUT Im on the Rams so lol

[Big Bear]

Curious if you would mind sharing what "very large" is?

4-5 inches?

[looneytunes67]

Screw the straight bets with these tight lines.

Taking a teaser of 7 points for New Orleans +3.5 and New England +10 for 1K to win $714. Sure, crossing zero is not a good bet with the teasers, but it's not New Orleans I'm worried about but New England, who has not lost by more than 10 in away conference championship games. KC does not have Denver's D, so I don't see NE losing by more than 10 IF they lose. Honestly, I think NE wins SU.

The NO's opening line of -3.5 tells me they are more likely to win SU than lose, so basically I'm getting points for NE.

New Orleans wins SU, so I'm not worried about there.

Hmmmmmm....while I agree with your premise that these are tight lines; I do not agree with teasing the Saints to +3.5. Never mind the notion of "crossing zero," .... you still have a tight line ....just that now it is the other way....Saints +3.5.
I also did a 7 pt teaser....Pats +10 ; Rams +10.5. This way I cross and land on the 10 for the PAts game for the opportunity to at least push on that key number and win at 10.5 on the Rams. Backdoor covers already happened in these playoffs with Seattle scoring a last minute TD. Teams that are behind by 2 TD's will scratch and claw and by scoring late.....you cover that half of your teaser.

Curious if you are so confident the Saints will win SU, why not just take them on the ML?

I like the Rams to cover....at least on my teaser. Sheldon Rankins is out for NO....should give the combo of Gurley and CJ Anderson a lot of yards running the ball. Also, Talib is healthy and he did not play in the first meeting between these teams when Michael Thomas torched them for 211 yds.

I also teased the Pats +10 and the under at +65 ( got it early at o/u 58). even though the temps won't be as cold as first forecast I still like the number I got.

Hey, whatever, Good luck. If the Chiefs and Saints win by a TD....we both win our teasers.

[DJK]

Curious if you are so confident the Saints will win SU, why not just take them on the ML?

I have no doubt that NO wins SU, but if I take them on the ML then I don't get the benefit of getting the points for NE which I cannot get unless I tease.

The way I see playing the teasers is to not so much select the teams you think they will cover but to select the teams that can avoid the blow outs which kill the teasers.

Seeing how terrible Goff was when the Rams could not run the ball against the Bears and again against the Eagles, if the Saints do the same then the Saints could run away with it, but I just don't see how the Rams could run away from the Saints.

On the other game, the Chiefs could certainly could run away from the Patriots but with their shoddy defense it's highly unlikely and if anyone is running away in the game it's the Patriots.

Good luck with your teaser.

I was going to make a single two team teaser, but now I'm going to split the money and expand the plays to parlays and teasers to include two under's too.

[Pinoy-T-X]

The ref on the Saints / Rams game is
Bill Vinovich (the Rams are 0-8 in games officiated by Vinovich)

[Pinoy-T-X]

The ref on the Saints / Rams game is
Bill Vinovich (the Rams are 0-8 in games officiated by Vinovich)

“Injuries to watch: With running back Todd Gurley (knee) practicing fully, the Rams listed zero players on their midweek injury report. Meanwhile, the Saints offensive line continues to be banged up, with tackles Andrus Peat (hand) and Ryan Ramczyk (shoulder) both limited alongside center Max Unger (knee). On defense, they'll be without in defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins (Achilles).”

[shocka1212]

The ref on the Saints / Rams game is
Bill Vinovich (the Rams are 0-8 in games officiated by Vinovich)

shit....

[Pinoy-T-X]

F’ it.
i’m just Going to do a 6.5 tease on
Saints +3.5, OVER 50.5, KC +3.5 and OVER 49 and call it a day.
two units pays 4.5 units. Boom that’s it.

[byronbb]

if sharps liked NE the line would already be +2.5

[RM Logic]

I think KC is the right play but will pass due to the weather. Mahomes is a Texas guy and will be affected by the weather much more than Brady. That and being a rookie is just cause to stay away. I think the under is the better play.

As for NO/LA I like the 1st half over. NO will not come out slow like they did last week. Both coaches will take chances in this game.

[mdunlap3]

The last time a team went to the Super Bowl that won a road playoff game at all was the 2012.
Home teams in the conference championships are 10-0 over the past five seasons and 8-2 ATS.

Where’d you get this lol that’s sharp.

[inspektr]

I am way over thinking this when it's rather quite simple.

Who are the two teams that beat the strongest of the opponents left?

New England beating the hot LA Chargers and New Orleans beating the streaking Philadelphia Eagles.

The Rams barely beat the Cowgirls and KC beat an over-matched Indy who hasn't played any decent offensive teams.

The stronger teams prevail in the Conference Championship games, so it's the Patriots and the Saints.

I'm going to parlay them and tease them all with both unders and make out like a bandit. Oh boy, I cannot wait to count my winning 100 bills.


The only thing I have to watch out for is Blakeman, but fuk him as someone will take care of him too.

show indy some respect they came in winning last 9 out of 10 after starting season 1-5, one of the "hottest" teams if you ask me. pats goin down

[Snowball]

just parlay LA and KC... pays 3 to 1.

pays -0-

[aston]

the ref on the saints / rams game is
bill vinovich (the rams are 0-8 in games officiated by vinovich)

now thats great handicapping great point

[mdunlap3]

Yep!

[DJK]

now thats great handicapping great point

Yeah, but instead it's the refs who freaking screwed the Saints from going to the SB with that non PI call.

If that PI call was made, which it should have been since it was SO OBVIOUS, then the Saints run out the clock and kick a field goal to end the game or even score a TD to cover the game.

[DJK]

Yeah, but instead it's the refs who freaking screwed the Saints from going to the SB with that non PI call.

If that PI call was made, which it should have been since it was SO OBVIOUS, then the Saints run out the clock and kick a field goal to end the game or even score a TD to cover the game.

Basically, that fuking idiot field judge who did NOT make that PI call single handily flip the bet on that game.

I wouldn't be surprised if someone shoots his ass.