Pats +3.5(-120)

[mdunlap3]

Not sure how long this is going to last, so if you like it, I would get it just in case. Also seeing +3(EV), which I like too, might add a smaller play to this as well. Either way, I’m going very large on the 3.5 (-120). Think it should be more like 3.5(-145) or so, some definite value in my eyes at this price. Thoughts?

[BigdaddyQH]

It's the going rate, so if you think the Pats can cover, go for it. Nothing special there. Apparently Vegas does not agree with your (-145) theory just yet.

[INVEGA MAN]

Love KC!!

[funnyb25]

Tom and Bill vs. Reid in the playoffs.....Seems like a no-brainer.

[looneytunes67]

Not sure how long this is going to last, so if you like it, I would get it just in case. Also seeing +3(EV), which I like too, might add a smaller play to this as well. Either way, I’m going very large on the 3.5 (-120). Think it should be more like 3.5(-145) or so, some definite value in my eyes at this price. Thoughts?

Curious if you would mind sharing what "very large" is?

[Pinoy-T-X]

I think NE will be up by a FG in the final seconds, then instead of KC going for a tie for OT, they go for it and score a TD. And covering the spread winning by 4 points.

[thomorino]

3 point underdogs that cover the spread when straight up 90% of the time, if you like the Pats you have to believe they will likely win the game, the value long-term is on the moneyline.

[DJK]

3 point underdogs that cover the spread when straight up 90% of the time, if you like the Pats you have to believe they will likely win the game, the value long-term is on the moneyline.

Wow, another bullshit from a bullshitter.

Fuk off

[thomorino]

Wow, another bullshit from a bullshitter.

Fuk off

Fuk off

[hotcross]

Actually might be the first thing he's ever said right

[thomorino]

Actually might be the first thing he's ever said right

Fuk off

[hotcross]

You can only fuk off everyone in the threads YOU create thomorino

Therefore I have immunity in this thread

[thomorino]

You can only fuk off everyone in the threads YOU create thomorino

Therefore I have immunity in this thread

Fuk off

[aston]

your correct morino

[thomorino]

your correct morino

Yeah can't believe their are bettors arguing this point

[mdunlap3]

Tom and Bill vs. Reid in the playoffs.....Seems like a no-brainer.

Thx bra. You on em as well?

[mdunlap3]

Curious if you would mind sharing what "very large" is?

5 units.

[mdunlap3]

It's the going rate, so if you think the Pats can cover, go for it. Nothing special there. Apparently Vegas does not agree with your (-145) theory just yet.

Yeah. I’ll be honest the line move kind of worries me because it takes a LOT to move from 3 to 3.5, more than any number in football. Lots of times even if huge sharp amounts come in at -3, they will just add juice to -3, not move to 3.5. And the public has not moved the line on Thursday, some heavy hitters had to of come in on KC.

[ikid2groove415]

Take the team with better offense/defense and at home - usually when New England lose its on the road - they do not play with the same mojo away from Foxboro

[DJK]

Screw the straight bets with these tight lines.

Taking a teaser of 7 points for New Orleans +3.5 and New England +10 for 1K to win $714. Sure, crossing zero is not a good bet with the teasers, but it's not New Orleans I'm worried about but New England, who has not lost by more than 10 in away conference championship games. KC does not have Denver's D, so I don't see NE losing by more than 10 IF they lose. Honestly, I think NE wins SU.

The NO's opening line of -3.5 tells me they are more likely to win SU than lose, so basically I'm getting points for NE.

New Orleans wins SU, so I'm not worried about there.

[ikid2groove415]

Screw the straight bets with these tight lines.

Taking a teaser of 7 points for New Orleans +3.5 and New England +10 for 1K to win $714. Sure, crossing zero is not a good bet with the teasers, but it's not New Orleans I'm worried about but New England, who has not lost by more than 10 in away conference championship games. KC does not have Denver's D, so I don't see NE losing by more than 10 IF they lose. Honestly, I think NE wins SU.

The NO's opening line of -3.5 tells me they are more likely to win SU than lose, so basically I'm getting points for NE.

New Orleans wins SU, so I'm not worried about there.

Saints offense have not been the same since they play Dallas -

[DJK]

Yeah. I’ll be honest the line move kind of worries me because it takes a LOT to move from 3 to 3.5, more than any number in football. Lots of times even if huge sharp amounts come in at -3, they will just add juice to -3, not move to 3.5. And the public has not moved the line on Thursday, some heavy hitters had to of come in on KC.

Are you saying KC's line moved to -3.5 at some point on Thursday?

If you are referring to Caesars Palace's blip to -3.5 at 1:51:42 PM today, then I wouldn't worry about it since I think Caesars draw the most square players so it could be a good thing.

https://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/odds/line-history/1090544

[DJK]

Saints offense have not been the same since they play Dallas -

The Rams beat Dallas, who can't play for shit away from their dome. Usually, whatever happened in the first game does not happen in the 2nd game, but in this case it will no questions asked.

Seriously? You can't compare idiot Dak to Drew. Maybe if Drew played for Dallas, then Dallas would be in the Conference Championship game.

I hate to say this, but it's the Super Bowl of the old folks; Brady and Drew both over 40's and the one who's just a tad younger wins it all.

[ikid2groove415]

The Rams beat Dallas, who can't play for shit away from their dome. Usually, whatever happened in the first game does not happen in the 2nd game, but in this case it will no questions asked.

Seriously? You can't compare idiot Dak to Drew. Maybe if Drew played for Dallas, then Dallas would be in the Conference Championship game.

I hate to say this, but it's the Super Bowl of the old folks; Brady and Drew both over 40's and the one who's just a tad younger wins it all.

Not sure why you bring up Dak? I’m talking about the Dallas defense - and they show the blue print - 2 slow down the saints offense

[thomorino]

Not sure why you bring up Dak? I’m talking about the Dallas defense - and they show the blue print - 2 slow down the saints offense

The problem is the Rams don't have Dallas's linebackers, the Rams linebackers are horrible in coverage, the Saints do so much with short and intermediate route with Kamara and others.

[DJK]

Something else siding with my bet is this.

Stupid ass ESPN's Insider PickCenter is picking both the Rams and the Chiefs; ATS and ML. They aren't always wrong, but more wrong than right.

Had I followed their ATS picks, I probably lost my socks off.

[DJK]

Not sure why you bring up Dak? I’m talking about the Dallas defense - and they show the blue print - 2 slow down the saints offense

Seriously? You think it's whatever the defensive strategy that Dallas used that made NO lose and the Rams are going to do the same? It's possible since Wade Phillips is smart and he can come up with a good plan.

But it doesn't matter.

The only reason NO lost against Dallas was that they had a great rush game and prevented Drew from having time to make his throws. If he didn't make that pick right near the end of the game, NO won that game.

Drew is at home and not in Dallas or Los Angeles.

The way how NO came back and won their game against the hottest NFC team at the time is what's going to make them win the Conference Championship game.

The Rams beating the hapless Cowgirls does NOT count.

[ikid2groove415]

The problem is the Rams don't have Dallas's linebackers, the Rams linebackers are horrible in coverage, the Saints do so much with short and intermediate route with Kamara and others.

I think the most underrated thing people aren’t talking about is the saints defense - mcvay got them worry about the run because of how successful they were last week vs Dallas - I believe saints win if they can contain the ground game - Goff ain’t beating them

[ikid2groove415]

Seriously? You think it's whatever the defensive strategy that Dallas used that made NO lose and the Rams are going to do the same? It's possible since Wade Phillips is smart and he can come up with a good plan.

But it doesn't matter.

The only reason NO lost against Dallas was that they had a great rush game and prevented Drew from having time to make his throws. If he didn't make that pick right near the end of the game, NO won that game.

Drew is at home and not in Dallas or Los Angeles.

The way how NO came back and won their game against the hottest NFC team at the time is what's going to make them win the Conference Championship game.

The Rams beating the hapless Cowgirls do NOT count.

They were at home last week 2- sure I know the eagles was hot and there defense is better then the rams

[DJK]

In the end, I will be watching two tweets.

Whichever side the money is bet lop-sided, I'm going the other way even if I have to flip both of m picks.

If it's anything <= 59%, then I may stick with my picks but anything higher, I'm going the other way.


Two tweets that I follows are:

David Payne Purdum and Jason Simbal

[ikid2groove415]

I don’t care what anyone says - cowboys was caught off guard last Saturday - they weren’t prepare for the rams ground game - was expecting a passing game

[DJK]

I don’t care what anyone says - cowboys was caught off guard last Saturday - they weren’t prepare for the rams ground game - was expecting a passing game

So the Cowgirls' defensive coordinator was an idiot.

[DJK]

I don’t care what anyone says - cowboys was caught off guard last Saturday - they weren’t prepare for the rams ground game - was expecting a passing game

If any of the other remaining QB's in the Divisional round was playing for Dallas, then they are still alive in the playoffs.

Screw Dak with the big contract. Dallas is making a mistake.

[ikid2groove415]

If any of the other remaining QB's in the Divisional round was playing for Dallas, then they are still alive in the playoffs.

Screw Dak with the big contract. Dallas is making a mistake.

Laughable - Goff is average at best

[ikid2groove415]

Mcvay is like 1 of the best offensive minds in the NFL- he’s light years better then garret- Dak might not put up tremendous stats but he makes play in critical moments and is tough -