I like the Chiefs at -3.
The difference between the road this year Patriots team and Patriots teams of the past is this Patriots team has been very mediocre on the road. The Patriots offense hasn't been impressive on the road. The Chiefs offense struggled after Hunt was released and Watkins and Hill were hurt, but Hill and Watkins are healthy now and the Chiefs running game has been strong with Williams. The Chiefs know what the Patriots defensive game plan likely will be since these teams played, so Reid should be able to adjust, and the Patriots defense has been much better at home the last month. The Chiefs play man, not zone, which has been more successful against Brady, and the Chiefs defense has been much better at home and is built to play with the lead because of their pass rush. Andy Reid's playoff failures in the past have been because he was too conservative, he was aggressive against Indianapolis and should be aggressive here too. The Pats always got calls at home, but here they are on the road.
The difference between the road this year Patriots team and Patriots teams of the past is this Patriots team has been very mediocre on the road. The Patriots offense hasn't been impressive on the road. The Chiefs offense struggled after Hunt was released and Watkins and Hill were hurt, but Hill and Watkins are healthy now and the Chiefs running game has been strong with Williams. The Chiefs know what the Patriots defensive game plan likely will be since these teams played, so Reid should be able to adjust, and the Patriots defense has been much better at home the last month. The Chiefs play man, not zone, which has been more successful against Brady, and the Chiefs defense has been much better at home and is built to play with the lead because of their pass rush. Andy Reid's playoff failures in the past have been because he was too conservative, he was aggressive against Indianapolis and should be aggressive here too. The Pats always got calls at home, but here they are on the road.