[bonzaii]

Is there something to betting against big favorites -200 + this late in the year when teams don't even need to win since they already clinched? Saw it last night in the Indians/Whitesox game where Bauer was yanked after 4 innings and than Carrasaco came in to pitch the last 5 innings. Whitesox started threatening in the 9th inning after being down 4-2 headed into the inning and instead of yanking Carssaco for a reliever which most coaches would do they kept Carrasco out there like they were testing them to see what he could give them come playoff time and he blew it and Whitesox ended up winning.

[bonzaii]

I know the Os are terrible but I see that Sale has gone 3 innings, 3 innings, and one inning in his late outings. Is he going to get yanked early again?

[jjgold]

you could get lucky and catch a streak, nothing to lose now

Bonzy your fukkin barreled in anyway

[Fedor]

“He’s going to pitch against the Orioles, that’ll be his last start for the [regular] season,” said Dombrowski. “He will stretch out again to 90-ish pitches, and then be ready to throw 100 pitches for the postseason.”

A couple of other questions about tonight's game:
- Do they play their starters in a day/night doubleheader? They all played in the first 'game' (except Bradley, I think).
- Are Sox backups better then the O's starters?
- Huge wind blowing out. Innings/HRs this year: Yacabonis 32/8, Sale 153/11

I'll pass.

[bonzaii]

you could get lucky and catch a streak, nothing to lose now

Bonzy your fukkin barreled in anyway

up several thousand this week.

[dawg58kahn]

“He’s going to pitch against the Orioles, that’ll be his last start for the [regular] season,” said Dombrowski. “He will stretch out again to 90-ish pitches, and then be ready to throw 100 pitches for the postseason.”

A couple of other questions about tonight's game:
- Do they play their starters in a day/night doubleheader? They all played in the first 'game' (except Bradley, I think).
- Are Sox backups better then the O's starters?
- Huge wind blowing out. Innings/HRs this year: Yacabonis 32/8, Sale 153/11

I'll pass.

orioles are too big at +400 with all these variables. it makes no sense for sox to play the regulars in a doubleheader in an inconsequential game

[LT Profits]

I know the Os are terrible but I see that Sale has gone 3 innings, 3 innings, and one inning in his late outings. Is he going to get yanked early again?

No, Sale scheduled for 90 pitches, so 5-6 innings.

[danshan11]

90 pitches against the cws could be 3 complete games LOL

[jjgold]

Bonzy do not give it back man

[LT Profits]

orioles are too big at +400 with all these variables. it makes no sense for sox to play the regulars in a doubleheader in an inconsequential game

Yes, Sos resting whole team, Bradley is batting lead-off and he is the only regular in the lineup besides Devers, who has only been playing regularly since Nunez got hurt. And Devers is batting cleanup.

[bonzaii]

“He’s going to pitch against the Orioles, that’ll be his last start for the [regular] season,” said Dombrowski. “He will stretch out again to 90-ish pitches, and then be ready to throw 100 pitches for the postseason.”

A couple of other questions about tonight's game:
- Do they play their starters in a day/night doubleheader? They all played in the first 'game' (except Bradley, I think).
- Are Sox backups better then the O's starters?
- Huge wind blowing out. Innings/HRs this year: Yacabonis 32/8, Sale 153/11

I'll pass.

No, Sale scheduled for 90 pitches, so 5-6 innings.

Yeah I was only going to take a shot if he was going to get yanked early. Thanks for the info guys.

[LT Profits]

Is there something to betting against big favorites -200 + this late in the year when teams don't even need to win since they already clinched? Saw it last night in the Indians/Whitesox game where Bauer was yanked after 4 innings and than Carrasaco came in to pitch the last 5 innings. Whitesox started threatening in the 9th inning after being down 4-2 headed into the inning and instead of yanking Carssaco for a reliever which most coaches would do they kept Carrasco out there like they were testing them to see what he could give them come playoff time and he blew it and Whitesox ended up winning.

I could probably research this if you give me a time frame. Say, after September 15th?

[LT Profits]

I could probably research this if you give me a time frame. Say, after September 15th?

It was easier to use Game Numbers, so I did fading faves -200+ last 20 games (Game 143 onward) and results were not good.

172-395, -29.35 units since 2005

[bonzaii]

It was easier to use Game Numbers, so I did fading faves -200+ last 20 games (Game 143 onward) and results were not good.

172-395, -29.35 units since 2005

ouch. How did you access that so quickly?

[NardVa]

The these big underdogs are just going through the motions. No effort in pitching and no effort on defense. Look at today. Boston beat Baltimore 19 -3. Washington is up on Miami 9-0. These big underdogs are getting beat by football scores.

[danshan11]

they win and win just like they normally do
you can see it here

line < -199 and game number > 145 and month < 10 SU: 403-183 (1.65, 68.8%) avg line: -235.2 / 202.3 on / against: -$2,060 / -$3,915 ROI: -1.5% / -6.7% RL: 236-208 (0.42, 53.2%) avg line: -114.1 / 101.1 on / against: +$308 / -$2,905 ROI: +0.6% / -6.2% OU: 285-266-33 (0.53, 51.7%) avg total: 8.6 over / under: -$400 / -$4,873 ROI: -0.6% / -7.5%

[KVB]

It was easier to use Game Numbers, so I did fading faves -200+ last 20 games (Game 143 onward) and results were not good.

172-395, -29.35 units since 2005

You will pretty much always, no matter what gap of the season, or even whole season you, that look at will see a 30% win rate on this fade.

It's been tough to get a profit out something like this any time over the last 10 years, with the exception of fading the favorites in 2016.

I think if you even go back a few more games, say starting from game 120 or so, you see a significant jump in loss.

Remember, now, you are fading the favorite here, you are not searching underdog odds.

If you do this the first half of the season, the whole season, you might lose 40 units or so, you do this between games 80 and 100 and you are losing 15 units or so.

Do this from games 100 to the end of the season, every season for about LT's time span, and you are going to lose significantly. You will lose 100 units.

Not a good blanket strategy over the last dozen years or so, you are basically looking at a -5% ROI late season, about -4% first half of the season and worse than -6% from about 100 games to game 143. I have different closers from different books and thus a small range of percentages and units being tracked. Different books have different ROI's.

So of course, fading those dogs will do well....lol.

For the 2018 season, fading those favorites has been terrible. If you've been fading -200 or better favorites, you are down 35 - 40 units. It's less than the 30% clip and is one of, if not the worst season in a dozen years.

So of course, again, fading those dogs will probably do well the rest of the time...lol.

[LT Profits]

ouch. How did you access that so quickly?

Easy to do with Bet Labs.

[Inkwell77]

Big Dogs in MLB getting killed for like 5 years straight.

Amazing kind of.

[lonegambler23]

juice never pays, bonzaii sharp as they come

[Shute]

Anyone watching the + 300 Baltimore / Boston 2nd game?

[Shute]

Bang
Chick-a-boom

[KVB]

...For the 2018 season, fading those favorites has been terrible. If you've been fading -200 or better favorites, you are down 35 - 40 units. It's less than the 30% clip and is one of, if not the worst season in a dozen years.

So of course, again, fading those dogs will probably do well the rest of the time...lol...

The season could finish out strong here, hitting more than normal as it really doesn't vary too much from that 30% clip over time. Before tonight were looking at 27% on the season.

I know it's game by game, but don't be surprised if those dogs hit late this year.

[bonzaii]

juice never pays, bonzaii sharp as they come

Haha I do okay once in a while. People actually chimed in and convinced me not to bet this.

[jjgold]

Interesting how the big chalks did pretty good this year in major-league baseball that means the good pitchers won .