[Hman]

5Dimes

MLB World Series Tue 9/18 7:05PM
Houston Astros	+340
Boston Red Sox	+350
Los Angeles Dodgers	+650
Chicago Cubs	+700
Cleveland Indians	+930
New York Yankees	+1050
Atlanta Braves	+1400
Oakland Athletics	+1400
Milwaukee Brewers	+1500
Colorado Rockies	+1800
St. Louis Cardinals	+2600
Arizona Diamondbacks	+17500
Philadelphia Phillies	+55000
Pittsburgh Pirates	+100000
Washington Nationals	+100000
Seattle Mariners	+250000
Tampa Bay Rays	+250000

[Hman]

I'm gonna guess that some like the Dodgers at that price

[krk1030]

I'm gonna guess that some like the Dodgers at that price

Most talented team in the NL but not even a lock to make the playoffs.

[Ebumdude]

Astros baby.

[RangeFinder]

I'm gonna guess that some like the Dodgers at that price

One serious problem with the Dodgers: No closer out of the pen. That is going to play huge. If the Dodgers had one they would be the faves IMO

[krk1030]

Yankees were +450 mid way though the year. They look absolutely horrendous lately but the talent is the same.

[RangeFinder]

Yankees were +450 mid way though the year. They look absolutely horrendous lately but the talent is the same.

Yankees right now better value IMO than the Dodgers. Almost the same team but you get almost double the number on NY.

[The Giant]

One serious problem with the Dodgers: No closer out of the pen. That is going to play huge. If the Dodgers had one they would be the faves IMO

Jansen will be fine. Hopefully.

[jjgold]

Cubs

[ans61201]

Wouldn’t bet any team that may have to play that one game wild card. Even if you win it you’re left at a disadvantage moving forward.

Best bet, bet stros and Sox

[lakerboy]

Wouldn’t bet any team that may have to play that one game wild card. Even if you win it you’re left at a disadvantage moving forward.

Best bet, bet stros and Sox

I hear your thought but I disagree. I think you have to take the Yankees/a's and then buyout

I think the Cubs will be there in the End

[JIBBBY]

Sleepers -

A's might be worth the stab at +1400... Rays at a very long shot if they can make it in also... Both have been 2 of the hotter teams in MLB coming down the stretch now..

[ans61201]

I hear your thought but I disagree. I think you have to take the Yankees/a's and then buyout

I think the Cubs will be there in the End

The Yankees and As are terrible bets imo. Inferior teams with inferior pitching, at a big disadvantage due to format. Before the real playoffs begin you’ll have one of your teams out. I think you fall in love too easily with a big number in front of a +

[2daBank]

Remember at all star break when I said best plays were Rockies/cards/San Fran all around 50 to 1?? Along w tribe in al (forget what they were but far more favorable than the big 3).. clearly San Fran fizzzled but point was at least one those teams was gonna make a push into playoffs then odd be shit compared to after the fact. Indians was pure value as they were gauranteed to be in and not a wc, I’d be thrilled w a tribe ticket at whatever it was in July and am thrilled w my rox and cards and huge odds

[d2bets]

I hear your thought but I disagree. I think you have to take the Yankees/a's and then buyout

I think the Cubs will be there in the End

Morrow out and Strop probably out. Will closing be a problem? Who's the closer - Jesse Chavez?

[JMobile]

Yankees might have a chance.

[slayer14]

Atlanta braves are the best team in baseball

[thetrinity]

atlanta odds are awfully high for a team with the division wrapped up

[d2bets]

Atlanta braves are the best team in baseball

Are you being sarcastic?

[Snowball]

yankees at 1050 are good value there
if they win wc game it will at least be halved
and they will be fave in wc game, 50/50 and 50/50 and 50/50
bet 1 to win 10.50
hedge wc 1.3/1
hedge div 1/1
hedge al 1/1
hedge ws 1/1
cost approx 4-5(6 max)
pocket +400/+500

[d2bets]

yankees at 1050 are good value there
if they win wc game it will at least be halved
and they will be fave in wc game, 50/50 and 50/50 and 50/50
bet 1 to win 10.50
hedge wc 1.3/1
hedge div 1/1
hedge al 1/1
hedge ws 1/1
cost approx 4-5(6 max)
pocket +400/+500

That's a lot of assumption. Starting with the idea that you'll be able to get +333 on the Yankees WC opponent. Don't think so, yo. Maybe +200.

That difference narrows it up to more like 200. And then you're assuming even money. You think you get even money taking the Red Sox against the Yankees?

[veriableodds]

Wish their was a way to bet against the ws team matchups...Don't like those series prices at all

[ans61201]

yankees at 1050 are good value there
if they win wc game it will at least be halved
and they will be fave in wc game, 50/50 and 50/50 and 50/50
bet 1 to win 10.50
hedge wc 1.3/1
hedge div 1/1
hedge al 1/1
hedge ws 1/1
cost approx 4-5(6 max)
pocket +400/+500

Also not mentioned above, even though these odds are incorrect let's assume they are, onxe you start hedging every series you have to hope they really win it all, or you lose, and in that case why not just let 10/1 ride

You bet 130 on As they win,
You lose 130

You bet 100 on Sox, Yankees win
You're down 230.

Then you bet 100 on stros and say stros win

You're down 230 for the entire thing.(series losses +original loss on ws future) Once the hedges start you gotta double each rounds hedges if you don't want risk of loss, otherwise you're down. Oddsmakers take into account people doing this. If you go the hedge route you'll need a wild card team to make the Alcs at worst.

Don't waste money on any of these wild card team with no pitching.

And yes, like was mentioned above your odds are off, they will not be even against any of the al teams and will be slight favorites against As

[d2bets]

Also not mentioned above, even though these odds are incorrect let's assume they are, onxe you start hedging every series you have to hope they really win it all, or you lose, and in that case why not just let 10/1 ride

You bet 130 on As they win,
You lose 130

You bet 100 on Sox, Yankees win
You're down 230.

Then you bet 100 on stros and say stros win

You're down 130 for the entire thing. Once the hedges start you gotta double each rounds hedges if you don't want risk of loss, otherwise you're down. Oddsmakers take into account people doing this. If you go the hedge route you'll need a wild card team to make the Alcs at worst.

Don't waste money on any of these wild card team with no pitching.

And yes, like was mentioned above your odds are off, they will not be even against any of the al teams and will be slight favorites against As

I think he's claiming A's will be +330 in which case he only needs to bet about 30 to win 100. If A's are, say, +200, then he needs to bet 50.

[ans61201]

I think he's claiming A's will be +330 in which case he only needs to bet about 30 to win 100. If A's are, say, +200, then he needs to bet 50.

Even then if they lose halfway thru, you'd he down money off your hedging every series

[d2bets]

Even then if they lose halfway thru, you'd he down money off your hedging every series

Maybe, but not necessarily. If his assumptions are correct, he won't, but those assumptions don't seem terribly realistic to me.

[ans61201]

Maybe, but not necessarily. If his assumptions are correct, he won't, but those assumptions don't seem terribly realistic to me.

No he wouldn't even if they are correct.

Spend original 100.

Spend 30 on As series. Yanks win down 30.

Spend 100 on Red Sox, yanks win you're down 130.

Spend 100 on Astros in Alcs, Astros win. You win 100 but lose 100 on future and 130 on the other two series, finish down.

If you double each series,

30, then bet 130, then 260, then 520 in Ws you'd have nothing left to win.

So if your plan is to hedge each series, unless they lose wc or win ws you'll be down

[veriableodds]

some complicated math going on here but plenty of time to figure it out

[Snowball]

I think he's claiming A's will be +330 in which case he only needs to bet about 30 to win 100. If A's are, say, +200, then he needs to bet 50.

I made a typo. I was thinking the Yankees would be 1.3/1 (-130) area.
the proposal makes sense. even odds were used in the other series
BUT I also wrote 400/600 which means 200 as leeway for adjustments.
if you only hedge the prop bet cost at +1050 there is definite room for better
profit than a basic Yankees WS bet (if they get there).

example
Yankees -130 A's +125 bet .75 to win 1
Div Yankees light dog +135 Fav -140, 1.4 to win 1
AL Pennant fave -120 1.2/1
World Series, Yankees light dog -125 fave hedge 1.25
.75+1.4+1.2+1.25=4.6
payout 10.50 - subtract, result +540 (with yankees as dog every series)
one may also take Yankees each series to cover hedge as juice wash
it all results in better payout than waiting for Yankees to make it to WS
where that would be a near 100 proposition

[d2bets]

WC: 80/100 (-80)
DS: 180/180 (-180)
CS: 260/260 (-260)
WS: 520/520 (-520)
-1040
Net: +10 on your prop
Congrats, you may make 10 dollars on your 100 if your assumptions are correct. And if not, oops.

[Snowball]

WC: 80/100 (-80)
DS: 180/180 (-180)
CS: 260/260 (-260)
WS: 520/520 (-520)
-1040
Net: +10 on your prop
Congrats, you may make 10 dollars on your 100 if your assumptions are correct. And if not, oops.

way off. see above. yankees would never be that high of a dog if dog at all.

[ans61201]

I made a typo. I was thinking the Yankees would be 1.3/1 (-130) area.
the proposal makes sense. even odds were used in the other series
BUT I also wrote 400/600 which means 200 as leeway for adjustments.
if you only hedge the prop bet cost at +1050 there is definite room for better
profit than a basic Yankees WS bet (if they get there).

example
Yankees -130 A's +125 bet .75 to win 1
Div Yankees light dog +135 Fav -140, 1.4 to win 1
AL Pennant fave -120 1.2/1
World Series, Yankees light dog -125 fave hedge 1.25
.75+1.4+1.2+1.25=4.6
payout 10.50 - subtract, result +540 (with yankees as dog every series)
one may also take Yankees each series to cover hedge as juice wash
it all results in better payout than waiting for Yankees to make it to WS
where that would be a near 100 proposition

Yes and what I keep saying that you're not taking into account is losing midway through, 3rd series, and you're down, you've paid for previous hedges but don't win it all. There's a lot of scenarios where you don't break even.

[ans61201]

I made a typo. I was thinking the Yankees would be 1.3/1 (-130) area.
the proposal makes sense. even odds were used in the other series
BUT I also wrote 400/600 which means 200 as leeway for adjustments.
if you only hedge the prop bet cost at +1050 there is definite room for better
profit than a basic Yankees WS bet (if they get there).

example
Yankees -130 A's +125 bet .75 to win 1
Div Yankees light dog +135 Fav -140, 1.4 to win 1
AL Pennant fave -120 1.2/1
World Series, Yankees light dog -125 fave hedge 1.25
.75+1.4+1.2+1.25=4.6
payout 10.50 - subtract, result +540 (with yankees as dog every series)
one may also take Yankees each series to cover hedge as juice wash
it all results in better payout than waiting for Yankees to make it to WS
where that would be a near 100 proposition

Even given this example, your second round series paying 140 to win 100 sure you cover your original future bet but what about your hedge bet on the As?

[ans61201]

way off. see above. yankees would never be that high of a dog if dog at all.

He's not saying they'd be a dog, he's using your odds showing you how much you'd have invested each round, and how much you'd have to pay to cover previous hedges

[JIBBBY]

I think it's gonna be Boston and the Dodgers in the World Series..

I see the Dodgers heating up come playoff time. Starting to come on now..

Redsox are still the best team in the Majors and I don't see them faltering either in the post season.. They will have home field advantage in every series...