Slurry keep on keeping on.
i am here reading.
i am sure many others are.
i am here reading.
i am sure many others are.
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yes, i just don't post as much
i would expect the market to crash at some point... mortgage rates are getting close to 8%, gold has been dripping down, etc
the bargains are still in the bond/preferred markets, where you can get some 10-20% returns on stuff i consider pretty safeComment -
The market is down a lot today, what is going on guys?Comment -
Well lets look at the SPY 2 Year chart with Weekly candle sticks.
- This all started even before the charts show it when the SPY went up to and kind of shimmied around the $420ish spot during the April to June 2021 time frame before it continued to march up the hill on the way to just a hair under the $480 spot which is the all time high.
- The SPY came back down and tested the $420 spot 3 times and while not closing a week below, the rally began and continued for a few weeks before making a lower high. Then over the course of 2 months price crashed right through that $420 level of support making a lower low with no hesitation.
- Price then turn back around to climb back up and test a former area of support ($420), but couldn't break out back above the $420ish spot after a couple of weeks of trying. Since it couldn't break out, the SPY kind of hit a free fall situation for a few weeks down to another lower low before getting its shyt together to make another run at the $420 spot.
- This time the SPY was able to peek above the $420 spot for a few candle closes before gaping back down to the $420 spot to open the week, tried to rally but couldn't make the rally happen. Then the SPY fell apart again and went back down to make a lower low which is our current new lower low of support at $350ish. We'll call that the next, "goal line defense area for the bulls."
- This time the relief rally came up a little short of the $420 spot before falling apart and starting to go lower. However there was no lower low in the cards, the SPY found support and the rally was on for the new year.
- The SPY went right back up to, say it with me, the $420 spot before getting rejected yet again. On the way back down the SPY again found support making a higher low and continued the march back up the hill.
- This time the SPY price hung out around the $420 spot for about 7 weeks before busting out above and releasing all of that pent up energy on the march back up to challenge the all time high. It couldn't quite get there so I'm calling it a lower high on a different chart (30 Year, Quarterly).
- That finally brings us to now, where yet again price has matriculated back down to test a, all together now, former breakout area ($420). Yes I was a buyer today around the $420 spot. At the very least we got an intraday bounce. We'll see how the rest of the week and possibly more goes, but check out the stochastic lines that I circled but didn't number. The last time we witness them down here the SPY turned around and made a pretty substantial rally happen. For an added bone us, the MACD is about as negative as it gets setting up a situation I like to call a full stack of pancakes. I buy at this spot and if it bounces its a winner, if it crashes right through, I get out of the way after the 1st candle stick close below and hopefully it isn't a fake out situation like back in bullet point #3 where it makes a false break out. Only this time it would be a false break down. If you need even more of a reason to buy, there is that 50 WMA right there as well to look at.
That's the way I see it. Basically a buy the dip play for me while expecting the markets to elevate probably to the 20WMA at the very least ($440ish).Comment -
All that crap I posted yesterday is going to be led by the tech sector so the QQQ, SMH was also on my buying list for the week. Then its pop corn time to see what happens.Comment -
Chucky and any other LAC holders, take note that their much anticipated split is happening. Your new shares should be found under LAC and LAAC. Don't freak when you see the new price.Comment -
how long do you want to go and how risky do you want?
for pure safety, some banks are paying around 6% for 6-month cds... a little riskier you can get stuff like amcx (tv network, not movie chain), macy's, nordstrom for around 10-12%... then if you want to get riskier you can get stuff like the aht preferreds for 22%+Comment -
first, it's best to understand the difference between BANK cds and BROKERAGE cds... if you buy a CD through an actual bank, and need/want the money before expiration, they charge a "penalty" which really just means you give back some of the interest but still get 100% of your money back.
if you buy a BROKERAGE CD, through schwab, fidelity, etc... it will have a bank name attached to it, but act in a totally different fashion, if you sell a brokerage CD there is no penalty, but you might sell it at 98 cents on the dollar because of market price/spread.
at this point you're probably better off just sticking with the savings at those places, rather than tying it up in a cd. if the yield curve wasn't inverted i would say go with a 2-3 yr cd but you're getting terrible rates on those vs. short term.Comment -
for right now i think i would play around with the GLD (paper gold) options, by being on the bullish side.
with GLD at 168.60, the put options that expire TOMORROW at 167.50 are going for 33 cents. that's free money, and if it isn't then you turn around and sell the 167.50 calls next week. annualized return on FREAKING GOLD of 72% on something out of the money.Comment -
i use Robinhood to get the 4.9%.
yes it costs $5 a month but i like to be nimble and move the money in and out of stocks and crypto if i want to.
as long as you keep at least $1500 in cash in there at all times, you would make $73.50 a year which would offset the $60 but yes you would need to pay taxes on the $73.50 lol.
my point is, if you are going to keep several thousands or several tens of thousands somewhere and want to make a decent yield but also have it available 24/7 to move in and out of stocks and or crypto, my recommendation is Robinhood.
if you keep $50,000 in a 9 month CD paying 6%, you will make $2250 in 9 mos
if you keep $50,000 in Robinhood as cash for 9 mos paying 4.9%, you will make $1837 less $45 in monthly fees (9 * $5) = NET 1792
Difference in gains on the CD is $458
i have made way more than $458 by keeping money in Robinhood and trading in and out of Bitcoin and stock symbol AI the past 9 months. :-)Comment -
Option ratios are at levels you only see a few times a decade. Get ready for a rip-your-face-off rally. I wouldn't be shocked if we go up 10% by the end of the year.Comment -
Everyone is just hanging around waiting for those jobs numbers to come in to start the rally. It doesn't matter what the numbers even are really, the market will take it as a que to rally baby. It's all stacked up and waiting. All the stuff I put in the chart above are valid until the price breaks below my dotted line at $418.31 to be picky.
A 10% gain puts the SPY over the latest high, so put me down as a no in that thought, but I do see a $440 spot coming perhaps. Then after that its back to doom and gloom for me. I got a ton of calls over the week in all my favorite indexes, and especially in the QQQs. Well I can't say that I bought alot of XLF, but I did even buy some of those. Everything expires around the new year which should give it time to breathe. For the short term, I bought QQQ calls and SPY calls but that was just for some dinner money plays to keep me looking at the charts everyday and making sure that I have action working.Comment -
The only times I can find where put/call ratios have been this high since 1998 were early 2007, August 2015, December 2018, March 2020, and December 2022, all of which saw massive rallies in just a few months.Comment -
This won't be updated until later this evening, but you can see that the level we're at as of last night is very rare, and all correspond with strong rallies:
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i disagree with you guys about a rally… i think we’ll keep dripping lower or crash, it IS octoberComment -
[QUOTE=milwaukee mike;31235916]first, it's best to understand the difference between BANK cds and BROKERAGE cds... if you buy a CD through an actual bank, and need/want the money before expiration, they charge a "penalty" which really just means you give back some of the interest but still get 100% of your money back.
if you buy a BROKERAGE CD, through schwab, fidelity, etc... it will have a bank name attached to it, but act in a totally different fashion, if you sell a brokerage CD there is no penalty, but you might sell it at 98 cents on the dollar because of market price/spread.
Yes but you can borrow against it. I got 2.5 Interest rate but am being 5.5 on interestComment -
Hi Chico, nice to see you are well enough to post after your procedures this week. I hope the good health continues for you in the future.
With all of this bullish talk, I do have to caution that milwaukee mike does have a point. There could be a huge rug pulling operation in the cards too. On the daily chart, there is a bear flag forming here at the SPY $420 area, and the longer that goes on the more energy the move will have in either direction. I do the Call to Put switch on both daily and weekly candle closes under my $418.31 spot for each type of play I have going on.Comment -
What point do you recommend to bail if your holding QQQ and SMHComment -
i think some of these consumer stocks like KO, PEP, TGT, CBRL are at good entry points
KO and PEP are trading like none of the fatties in the USA are gonna ever buy soda and chips again
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Did LAC officially go thru a stock-split? I see the price is way down.
Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Was waiting for this… What is a good number for a limit order to sell for QQQ and SMHComment -
Need the stock market to really tank now to fully ruin this Biden administration and pave the way for a better economy and stock market for us all under Trump in 2024.Comment -
Well the way I do it involves elements of time since the big boys with the money that move markets also have charts, they can manipulate charts to temporarily act like they want. For instance, they know a setup for a rally situation is on, but they also know that below $358.50 is an area where people are ready to sell with a stop loss. Setting a stop loss right at that spot, they can run the price down below which would trigger everyones stop loss. Then they collect all of those shares and afterwards the rally begins. It happens all the time.
What I do is set a conditional order that triggers after a period of time so in this instance, even though my stop loss order is set for $358.50, it only triggers after the close today on the weekly chart. This way i can endure the temporary dips below and thwart the games they play a little bit.
All of that said my line is below the low from today or yesterday we'll call it $355. If things go south today and around 3:30 it is obvious that the QQQ is going to close below that price, its time to unload. Currently, the other scenario is going on where price dips and then runs but that can change.
For SMH, that price is way off, $139.75.Comment -
Thank you much appreciated…trying to learnComment -
Stocks having a Good Day.
Q: When does all this money-printing become the key factor?
Is there anything telling in the Housing/Auto/Labor market?
At some point, Fiat Money becomes funny money. Read your history. It happens over and over again.
The only real surprise is that Wilson/Johnson/Nixon oversaw this. And nobody really seemed to care.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Sold SMH 148.48
Still have QQQComment
