Patriots line creep: will early Pats bettors be rewarded in 2 weeks ?

[grease lightnin]

Can you send me the name of your book that let's you buy off of 3 for 10 cents?

My local actually moves the line a half point at -120. I try to take advantage whenever possible.

[lakerboy]

Do I troll? Yes. It is fun. Do I always troll? No.


I am not in the sports betting industry, but I am in an industry that gives me enough perpective to know that large sports books are not in the business of betting on sporting events. They are collecting the vig.

Also, in my industry, there are people that speak in complex and vague terms, that make them sound really smart to the average layperson, but when you add it all up, it amounts to a load of bullshit. And you find that what they are really doing is trying to impress people with the mumbo jumbo hoping they can hide the fact that they really don't know much at all.

That is how I see you. No offense, but I call em like I see em.

I believe that if you really had the knowledge you claim to have, you wouldn't speak in riddles. You would speak plainly.

Shit just hit the fan

[jt315]

I wager in Vegas exclusively. If you are well known at a certain casino, and care to wager enough money, they will allow you this wager. You had better have the ability and the knowledge about how to "take care" of the employees in the casino. That means tip often and to the right people. My guess is no one in here does that. Since the vast majority of players in here are either air bettors or wager off shore, they would know nothing about what I am talking about. Small timers do not get this wager. And you sure as hell will not get it at some small time off shore book.

Says the guy that claims the Auburn Oklahoma Bowl game closed between 3.5 and 5.

[getlucky2win]

I wager in Vegas exclusively. If you are well known at a certain casino, and care to wager enough money, they will allow you this wager. You had better have the ability and the knowledge about how to "take care" of the employees in the casino. That means tip often and to the right people. My guess is no one in here does that. Since the vast majority of players in here are either air bettors or wager off shore, they would know nothing about what I am talking about. Small timers do not get this wager. And you sure as hell will not get it at some small time off shore book.

Bullshit. Complete and utter b.s. locals let some ppl buy pts for less. The casino does not

[chico2663]

Feeling better about the Falcons now that you see all these Pats supporters? Toss another dime on the ML. Going to be eating good come February 6th!

So will I but that's because it's my bday. lol Got atl at 6.75 .It was originally 8.5-1 but by time coinbase funded my heritage acct it dropped that much.

[Cookie Monster]

I wager in Vegas exclusively. If you are well known at a certain casino, and care to wager enough money, they will allow you this wager. You had better have the ability and the knowledge about how to "take care" of the employees in the casino. That means tip often and to the right people. My guess is no one in here does that. Since the vast majority of players in here are either air bettors or wager off shore, they would know nothing about what I am talking about. Small timers do not get this wager. And you sure as hell will not get it at some small time off shore book.

And if you tip really generously and to the right people, they allow you to bet vig free, I am sure. As KBV said, that is a benefit for placing in a cash flow positive book

[johnnyvegas13]

Line isn't budging people

[RoyBacon]

If your a Falcon backer I would still wait. There are bound to be some 3.5's closer to kickoff. But if you start seeing some 2.5's then I was wrong and jump on any 3's still around.

[lakerboy]

Roy the line isn't moving before gameplay.

[KVB]

...I am not in the sports betting industry, but I am in an industry that gives me enough perpective to know that large sports books...

No. You think you do. This is one of many reasons why your long term losing dollar ends up in the pockets of the books as well as winning bettors.

Nobody ever said the books didn't collect vig. There is nothing even close to a riddle from me in this thread and the thread I linked gives a clear cut example, using basic math and with bold print.

Again, it's hard to take you seriously when you act a fool. You're not calling shit like you see it.

Shit just hit the fan

I wish LB, but the guy's not serious at all.

[Snowball]

you guys seem to think Vegas will happily sit on a Patriot surplus just because
it's at a push number of -3. They can't do that. The chances of a push at -3
saving them from possible loss due to their overexposure to Pats action is too
unlikely. They will move to 3.5 to take the sharp Atlanta bets, then if that is
too much they will move it back again once they are balanced.
If I were a Falcons bettor I would certainly wait for this possibility.

yawn...

Lack of sharp action indicates wiseguys likely waiting for Falcons +3.5

[grease lightnin]

No. You think you do. This is one of many reasons why your long term losing dollar ends up in the pockets of the books as well as winning bettors.

Nobody ever said the books didn't collect vig. There is nothing even close to a riddle from me in this thread and the thread I linked gives a clear cut example, using basic math and with bold print.

Again, it's hard to take you seriously when you act a fool. You're not calling shit like you see it.





I wish LB, but the guy's not serious at all.

Again more non-committal bullshit.

Answer this simple question: do books seek uneven action ATS or do they seek even action ATS?

[DrunkHorseplayer]

I wager in Vegas exclusively. If you are well known at a certain casino, and care to wager enough money, they will allow you this wager. You had better have the ability and the knowledge about how to "take care" of the employees in the casino. That means tip often and to the right people. My guess is no one in here does that. Since the vast majority of players in here are either air bettors or wager off shore, they would know nothing about what I am talking about. Small timers do not get this wager. And you sure as hell will not get it at some small time off shore book.

I wager exclusively in LV as well and there's no way anyone will allow this unless you're a Mayweather or Barkley-type known loser.

[Calgunner23]

I wager exclusively in LV as well and there's no way anyone will allow this unless you're a Mayweather or Barkley-type known loser.

Was he or was he not the guy who was betting an average of .43 cents online? Am I confusing him or not??

[RoyBacon]

“The smart guys really haven’t showed their hand yet,” he said. “What that tells me is they’re going to be waiting for Super Bowl weekend, and IF – and I want you to capitalize ‘if’ – they do play, they must be waiting for +3.5. Because they would have already laid the 3 with the Patriots if they liked 3. They passed on 3, so they’re waiting for 3.5 to pop up.”

I'm buying that. We could be in for a juiced 3. But Pinny has hung the 3 -105 with almost no movement the last day or two. That is pretty telling.

The slight inbalance on the Pats would be totally expected. If that Pinny line somehow gets to Atl +3 -110 then Atl buyers probably need to start at least nibbling. Day of Atl buyers may end up stuck with a +3 -120 by kickoff.

[nyplayer33]

Stays at 3

[gauchojake]

A tip is a vig whether you call it that or not is up to you.

[KVB]

Again more non-committal bullshit.

Answer this simple question: do books seek uneven action ATS or do they seek even action ATS?

Proof you are a troll and not to be taken seriously.

Anyone who reads this thread will will know the answer. There is nothing ambiguous or non committal about it, period.

Greaser you're proving you are just trolling, not even reading my posts.

How can anyone take you seriously?

Some bettors at this site legitimately want to learn something about gambling, as some are willing to teach.

Poster like Grease Lightning try to explicitly to interrupt that process.

That's too bad.

[KVB]

...I can assure you that market moving money will counter a Patriots move, it will be up to the book to decide.

There is no speculation here. If they move to -3.5, it will be countered.

To many people this game is a big deal, bigger than others; but to investors, it's just another game that warrants the same standard bet or a pass.

Real talk.

[KVB]

A tip is a vig whether you call it that or not is up to you.

Yeah I paid $100 to win $100 on a recent NFL spread.

I tipped the book $10 for the privilege.

[grease lightnin]

Proof you are a troll and not to be taken seriously.

Anyone who reads this thread will will know the answer. There is nothing ambiguous or non committal about it, period.

Greaser you're proving you are just trolling, not even reading my posts.

How can anyone take you seriously?

Some bettors at this site legitimately want to learn something about gambling, as some are willing to teach.

Poster like Grease Lightning try to explicitly to interrupt that process.

That's too bad.

Answer the question guy.

You won't do it for fear of being exposed... but take heart...

Everyone here with a brain already knows you are full of hot air anyway.

Just answer the question and I will move on.

[Snowball]

I still think there's a good chance this line will move and it will move the most
late. This late move I'm suggesting is within 0-2 days of kickoff time.
There is also a good chance she moves before that, then we shall see
what the Atlanta +3.5 sharps have in their pockets.

Reason it moves late is whales and public Patriots bettors have
not been felt yet. Money moves lines, Vegas does not make bets,
Vegas takes bets and takes surplus action that the mob doesn't
want.

[KVB]

First he writes this...

...With that said, I don't buy KVB's supposed knowledge that big books choose sides.

KVB, please plainly tell us how you know this. Thanks.

Then a page later he writes this...

...Answer this simple question: do books seek uneven action ATS or do they seek even action ATS?

At least be a more creative troll than pretending to go backwards in knowledge.

Somebody help this guy by summing up the thread for him, because I'm done with this monkey business.

Name calling, speaking for others, pretending to be dumb, is that all you can troll with?



Snowball, or anyone who read the thread, tell him what I think, because he didn't read my conversation in this thread.

And Snow, Sned doing well on the South Course today early, keep an eye on him for sure.

[RoyBacon]

i still think there's a good chance this line will move and it will move the most
late. This late move i'm suggesting is within 0-2 days of kickoff time.
There is also a good chance she moves before that, then we shall see
what the atlanta +3.5 sharps have in their pockets.

Reason it moves late is whales and public patriots bettors have
not been felt yet. Money moves lines, vegas does not make bets,
vegas takes bets and takes surplus action that the mob doesn't
want.

Crappy formatting but in the last couple of hours Pinnacle has moved to Atl +3 -113.



time

ne

atl

01/27 02:33 pm	-3 +102	+3 -113
01/27 12:56 pm	-3 +106	+3 -117
01/27 12:24 pm	-3 -104	+3 -106
01/26 05:15 pm	-3 -105	+3 -105
01/26 03:01 pm	-3 -106	+3 -104
01/26 12:15 pm	-3 -107	+3 -103
01/26 12:13 pm	-3 -106	+3 -104
01/26 12:03 pm	-3 -105	+3 -105
01/25 10:14 pm	-3 -104	+3 -106
01/25 04:54 pm	-3 -103	+3 -107
01/25 12:21 pm	-3 -102	+3 -108
01/24 08:26 pm	-3 -104	+3 -106
01/24 05:50 pm	-3 -105	+3 -105
01/24 05:44 pm	-3 -102	+3 -108
01/24 02:32 pm	-3 -107	+3 -103
01/24 02:22 pm	-3 -106	+3 -104
01/24 01:51 pm	-3 -105	+3 -105
01/24 10:56 am	-3 -103	+3 -107
01/24 10:02 am	-3 -105	+3 -105
01/23 05:26 pm	-3 -102	+3 -108
01/23 04:17 pm	-3 -101	+3 -109
01/23 12:28 pm	-3 -100	+3 -110
01/23 12:26 am	-3 +102	+3 -113

[Snowball]

Roy, all the Vegas shops are -3 (-110).
they set the line, offshores are going to dance
around with their deals and specials.
vegas insider

[grease lightnin]

First he writes this...




Then a page later he writes this...






At least be a more creative troll than pretending to go backwards in knowledge.

Somebody help this guy by summing up the thread for him, because I'm done with this monkey business.

Name calling, speaking for others, pretending to be dumb, is that all you can troll with?



Snowball, or anyone who read the thread, tell him what I think, because he didn't read my conversation in this thread.

And Snow, Sned doing well on the South Course today early, keep an eye on him for sure.

All you have to say is: "Yes, books choose sides and gamble on sports."

Or....

"No, books seek balance ATS and are in the business of collecting the vig, not gambling on sporting events."



But no.... you decide to type 1000 words of nonsense.


Because you are full of it.


If someone else wants to speak plainly for this clown as he requested, please do so. Thanks.

[LT Profits]

All you have to say is: "Yes, books choose sides and gamble on sports."

Or....

"No, books seek balance ATS and are in the business of collecting the vig, not gambling on sporting events."



But no.... you decide to type 1000 words of nonsense.


Because you are full of it.


If someone else wants to speak plainly for this clown as he requested, please do so. Thanks.

Actually, KVB is 100% right, you seem to have it reversed. It is the SMALLER books that strive for 50/50 action because they may have to in order to survive. The bigger boys though like Pinnacle have more of a managed risk approach which KVB explained perfectly with the simplistic example in the other thread. It is just a matter of how much risk tolerance the book wants to have.

[grease lightnin]

Actually, KVB is 100% right, you seem to have it reversed. It is the SMALLER books that strive for 50/50 action because they may have to in order to survive. The bigger boys though like Pinnacle have more of a managed risk approach which KVB explained perfectly with the simplistic example in the other thread. It is just a matter of how much risk tolerance the book wants to have.

Well, I guess I am wrong. I have a hard time believing this because while I am not familiar with the inner-workings of betting markets, I am familiar with much bigger markets with more hedges and outs available, where the big boys do take risk, but are very often incorrect, and the vast majority of their revenue comes from FEES--which in this case would be the vig, right?

Either way, my beef with KVB is that he is unclear and evasive. I understood perfectly what he was saying in the other thread, I just wanted him to say whether books gamble or not, and he wouldn't. He is full of hot air and likes to hear himself talk. I can't stand this.

Although I am still skeptical, I respect you and will take your word for it.

[chico2663]

heritage still has it even. I pay .08 for juice. My old boss was a bookie. He is pretty big and used my job to act like he earned money. He always tried to lay some off but not to often.

[grease lightnin]

Actually, KVB is 100% right, you seem to have it reversed. It is the SMALLER books that strive for 50/50 action because they may have to in order to survive. The bigger boys though like Pinnacle have more of a managed risk approach which KVB explained perfectly with the simplistic example in the other thread. It is just a matter of how much risk tolerance the book wants to have.

I am curious as to how you know this to be true. Do you mind sharing?

[Sam Losco]

We keep talking about where line goes. Do people really think this will land on exactly 3? The game I mean. I don't think this is a 3 point game. Whatever I do I'm selling off of 3 and getting + odds

i like that its sitting at 3 personally, i can see this being a shoot out decided by fg...

[LT Profits]

I am curious as to how you know this to be true. Do you mind sharing?

It's not exactly breaking news, Pinnacle may have brought that approach to the forefront offshore, but Todd Fuhrman (among others) has openly discussed it for a while. He often says on his Bettheboard podcasts that the notion of equal action is the biggest misconception that bettors have. If I have time over the weekend, I'll try to hunt down some old articles on the topic.

[grease lightnin]

It's not exactly breaking news, Pinnacle may have brought that approach to the forefront offshore, but Todd Fuhrman (among others) has openly discussed it for a while. He often says on his Bettheboard podcasts that the notion of equal action is the biggest misconception that bettors have. If I have time over the weekend, I'll try to hunt down some old articles on the topic.

Thanks LT.

[grease lightnin]

I looked around some. Fuhrman's website isn't up anymore, but what I can gather from forum posts, it appears that he said the common misconception is that books rarely achieve equal action, not that they do not seek it.

It seems to me that the scenario spelled out by KVB, where a book strives to achieve essentially a +168 bet at even odds sounds nice, but they would never get it. They would be exposed and the math nerds would crush them.

They may shade lines a few percent to make squares pay more, but I don't believe that is enough to give them the odds that KVB had in his illustration.

Something tells me this type of info, along with sports insights and wager percentages are disseminated to make people think they can beat the books if "they figure it out". But the books win in the end BECAUSE OF THE JUICE, and thus, this is where they ultimately make their money.

But hey I could be wrong. And I am interested in your view and any additional info you are willing to provide, LT.

[LT Profits]

I looked around some. Fuhrman's website isn't up anymore, but what I can gather from forum posts, it appears that he said the common misconception is that books rarely achieve equal action, not that they do not seek it.

It seems to me that the scenario spelled out by KVB, where a book strives to achieve essentially a +168 bet at even odds sounds nice, but they would never get it. They would be exposed and the math nerds would crush them.

They may shade lines a few percent to make squares pay more, but I don't believe that is enough to give them the odds that KVB had in his illustration.

Something tells me this type of info, along with sports insights and wager percentages are disseminated to make people think they can beat the books if "they figure it out". But the books win in the end BECAUSE OF THE JUICE, and thus, this is where they ultimately make their money.

But hey I could be wrong. And I am interested in your view and any additional info you are willing to provide, LT.

I haven't done a deep search yet but Sports Insights just did an article that addresses the topic.

Why Hasn’t the Super Bowl 51 Spread Moved Yet?