Who is going all in on Jake Arrieta today?

**jjgold** · 04-16-16, 08:01 AM

what is line -2 runs?

**Bigdave117** · 04-16-16, 08:33 AM

Probably -140 for 1.5, maybe +130 for 2.5. Both are good bets

**jjgold** · 04-16-16, 08:49 AM

I will try it

Cubs coming off loss too which is always better

**pavyracer** · 04-16-16, 08:53 AM

Cubs scored 1 run yesterday. Too risky to bet -2.5 line.

**lilpete** · 04-16-16, 09:11 AM

Originally posted by Bigdave117

Cubs have won 18 of his last 20 starts. They'll be ornery today after losing last night

ALL IN

i would never go all in on the cubs they are the most pathetic franchise in all major pro sports

**Chi_archie** · 04-16-16, 09:12 AM

I think Arrieta has a big regression this year, but I don't think it hits until he racks up about 10 starts

but it already appears that he is not as sharp as last year. Still very very good though

**DCHarper34** · 04-16-16, 09:16 AM

Those big MLs in baseball will bury you quick. Careful

**LT Profits** · 04-16-16, 09:21 AM

Never worth laying these kind of odds on a single event, which is why I almost never lay more than -130 on any single game even when my model says the favorite has value.

Incidentally, model has Cubs 74% (-285), so no value for either side as of now.

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 04-16-16, 09:39 AM

-1.5 -130 seems like a much better wager if you are on the cubbies

**lam824** · 04-16-16, 09:54 AM

The Cubs value today is insane -326 ML on 5Dimes

**LT Profits** · 04-16-16, 09:56 AM

Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21

-1.5 -130 seems like a much better wager if you are on the cubbies

And I don't routinely lay -1.5 either like a lot of other guys do to "cut the juice" as if it is no big deal, because it IS a big deal and ESPECIALLY so with a home team. On the rare occasions when I do lay -1.5 with a home team, I do it at big odds of at least +170 minimum.

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 04-16-16, 09:59 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

And I don't routinely lay -1.5 either like a lot of other guys do to "cut the juice" as if it is no big deal, because it IS a big deal and ESPECIALLY so with a home team. On the rare occasions when I do lay -1.5 with a home team, I do it at big odds of at least +170 minimum.

I don't usually lay -1.5 either but strong starting pitcher coupled with a team that puts up a lot of runs and saves a ton of juice...I'll take my chances in this spot

**LT Profits** · 04-16-16, 10:10 AM

Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21

I don't usually lay -1.5 either but strong starting pitcher coupled with a team that puts up a lot of runs and saves a ton of juice...I'll take my chances in this spot

But you have to remember that you are cutting your expected winning percentage by at least 25%. If we conservatively use 25% exactly, Pinny line right now is -319/+287 for an implied win% of 74.6% on ML. So .746 * .75 = 56.0%, which is fair odds of -127. So -130 is -EV and actual % is really a bit worse because 25% is low end.

**Slipknot26** · 04-16-16, 10:16 AM

I am but not with that juice
$150 Parlay pays $175.53
Cubs / Pirates
Thinking is Cubs doesn't lose to Rocks B2B and Pirates are on a 3 game losing skid at home , time to Win one at home vs Jungmann

**funnyb25** · 04-16-16, 10:18 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

And I don't routinely lay -1.5 either like a lot of other guys do to "cut the juice" as if it is no big deal, because it IS a big deal and ESPECIALLY so with a home team. On the rare occasions when I do lay -1.5 with a home team, I do it at big odds of at least +170 minimum.

Hate losing that half inning

**Darkside Magick** · 04-16-16, 10:19 AM

Remember people this is baseball....no team should ever be a -300 in any game!!!!!!!!!!!

Colorado Rockies +296 vs Chicago Cubs

**jjgold** · 04-16-16, 10:30 AM

this guy might bury the board today

**Capybara** · 04-16-16, 10:33 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

But you have to remember that you are cutting your expected winning percentage by at least 25%. If we conservatively use 25% exactly, Pinny line right now is -319/+287 for an implied win% of 74.6% on ML. So .746 * .75 = 56.0%, which is fair odds of -127. So -130 is -EV and actual % is really a bit worse because 25% is low end.

I always appreciate statistics lessons, LT, but not following you here. Why are you cutting your expected winning percentage by 25% just because it's a home game? What am I missing here?

Oh wait, you mean because it's a RL? But how do you get 25%? I believe you, just asking for the math. Ah wait, I bet it's because something like 25% of games are one-run games, right??

**IlluminatedOne** · 04-16-16, 10:43 AM

[QUOTE=Bigdave117;25584609]Cubs have won 18 of his last 20 starts. They'll be ornery today after losing last night

Did you not create a thread yesterday claiming that you win a high % of the games you bet, that you struggled with bank roll management? Now your "all in" on the the cubs today BOL

**Chi_archie** · 04-16-16, 10:45 AM

baseball is not an all in sport

its just not

**starrysky** · 04-16-16, 10:45 AM

You fools. Cubs lose today. Rockies +270 is the play. Watch and learn you little children

**mikefan1034** · 04-16-16, 10:46 AM

All in on Rockies lock of the baseball season. Arieta isn't even that good he has one lucky year what about years prior? U guys know nothing about sports it's amazing

**MUHerd37** · 04-16-16, 10:49 AM

Wow they are like -330 or something. It seems like every fukking time someone is over -300 they lose.

**Capybara** · 04-16-16, 10:56 AM

Originally posted by mikefan1034

All in on Rockies lock of the baseball season. Arieta isn't even that good he has one lucky year what about years prior? U guys know nothing about sports it's amazing

He may not win today, but based on what you just wrote, it's you who knows nothing about sports. I'd say 90% of the great pitchers were originally mediocre. It's not like basketball or even football. Guys "learn" how to pitch, they find their greatness. It takes some longer than others, like matching up with the right coach or the right pitchers around them. A light bulb goes off and they are never that "guy they were" again. Arrieta ain't the old Arrieta.

**Chi_archie** · 04-16-16, 10:58 AM

Originally posted by mikefan1034

All in on Rockies lock of the baseball season. Arieta isn't even that good he has one lucky year what about years prior? U guys know nothing about sports it's amazing

I think you missed his 2014 season as well, with his .98 Whip and 9th in cy young voting

**Chi_archie** · 04-16-16, 11:01 AM

Originally posted by Capybara

He may not win today, but based on what you just wrote, it's you who knows nothing about sports. I'd say 90% of the great pitchers were originally mediocre. It's not like basketball or even football. Guys "learn" how to pitch, they find their greatness. It takes some longer than others, like matching up with the right coach or the right pitchers around them. A light bulb goes off and they are never that "guy they were" again. Arrieta ain't the old Arrieta.

Sandy Koufax is a perfect example that bears that out..

you think in 1960-61, people weren't thinking Sandy just started to get a little more lucky after half a decade of mediocrity

Standard Pitching

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[COLOR=#FFFFFF !important]Finders

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1955	19	BRO	NL	2	2	.500	3.02	12	5	4	2	2	0	41.2	33	15	14	2	28	1	30	1	1	2	183	136	3.64	1.464	7.1	0.4	6.0	6.5	1.07
1956	20	BRO	NL	2	4	.333	4.91	16	10	1	0	0	0	58.2	66	37	32	10	29	0	30	0	2	1	261	82	5.05	1.619	10.1	1.5	4.4	4.6	1.03
1957	21	BRO	NL	5	4	.556	3.88	34	13	12	2	0	0	104.1	83	49	45	14	51	1	122	2	0	5	444	106	3.39	1.284	7.2	1.2	4.4	10.5	2.39
1958	22	LAD	NL	11	11	.500	4.48	40	26	7	5	0	1	158.2	132	89	79	19	105	6	131	1	0	17	714	93	4.38	1.494	7.5	1.1	6.0	7.4	1.25
1959	23	LAD	NL	8	6	.571	4.05	35	23	6	6	1	2	153.1	136	74	69	23	92	4	173	0	1	5	679	105	4.04	1.487	8.0	1.4	5.4	10.2	1.88
1960	24	LAD	NL	8	13	.381	3.91	37	26	7	7	2	1	175.0	133	83	76	20	100	6	197	1	0	9	753	101	3.49	1.331	6.8	1.0	5.1	*10.1*	1.97
1961 ★	25	LAD	NL	18	13	.581	3.52	42	35	2	15	2	1	255.2	212	117	100	27	96	6	*269*	3	2	12	1068	122	*3.00*	1.205	7.5	1.0	3.4	*9.5*	2.80	AS,MVP-18
1962 ★	26	LAD	NL	14	7	.667	2.54	28	26	2	11	2	1	184.1	134	61	52	13	57	4	216	2	0	3	744	143	*2.15*	*1.036*	*6.5*	0.6	2.8	*10.5*	3.79	AS,MVP-24

**pavyracer** · 04-16-16, 11:11 AM

Real Madrid and Manchester United were -400 today and won. But they were playing the bottom teams in their leagues. Are Rockies the worst team in the NL? I don't think so. Arrieta gave up 3 Runs last game. Can the Cubs score 4? Cubs don't seam patient at the plate. Fowler, Hayward and Bryant are into a horrific form. They swing at everything mostly on pitches off the plate. Cubs can win today but this is not an ALL IN game.

If you want an ALL IN game for these odds bet the Raptors. They will beat the Pacers and you don't have to sweat 9 innings.

**LT Profits** · 04-16-16, 11:12 AM

Originally posted by Capybara

I always appreciate statistics lessons, LT, but not following you here. Why are you cutting your expected winning percentage by 25% just because it's a home game? What am I missing here?

Oh wait, you mean because it's a RL? But how do you get 25%? I believe you, just asking for the math. Ah wait, I bet it's because something like 25% of games are one-run games, right??

Home favorites win by exactly one run 25.something% of the time, maybe even 26%ish.

**Chi_archie** · 04-16-16, 11:15 AM

Originally posted by pavyracer

Cubs don't seam patient at the plate. Fowler, Hayward and Bryant are into a horrific form. They swing at everything mostly on pitches off the plate. Cubs can win today but this is not an ALL IN game.

stick to soccer and leave the baseball patience stats to others

cubs on record pace for BB's

Sortable Batting
RK	TEAM	SO	BB	HBP	IBB	SB	CS	SB%	SH	SF	CI
1	Chicago Cubs	78	57	6	3	4	2	66.67	1	4	0
2	Pittsburgh	76	48	6	1	7	5	58.33	5	4	0
3	Milwaukee	99	43	1	2	4	2	66.67	2	1	1
4	St. Louis	91	41	9	2	4	2	66.67	5	5	0
5	Atlanta	87	38	4	5	5	3	62.50	5	2	0
6	Houston	108	38	2	0	10	5	66.67	1	2	0
7	NY Yankees	63	36	2	0	8	2	80.00	1	2	1
8	Toronto	112	35	6	0	5	1	83.33	1	3	0
9	Seattle	74	34	7	0	2	4	33.33	0	2	0
10	Baltimore	80	33	2	2	2	1	66.67	0	3	0
11	Boston	73	33	2	2	8	1	88.89	0	3	0
12	LA Angels	52	33	3	2	2	1	66.67	2	1	0
13	Texas	108	33	7	1	5	4	55.56	0	6	0

**Capybara** · 04-16-16, 11:20 AM

Love it, Arch is in fine form today hitting us with the STATS!!!

**jjgold** · 04-16-16, 11:29 AM

like LT says so many games end up 1 run

be careful here..enticing bankroll builder though

**sweethook** · 04-16-16, 11:36 AM

1 unit on the dog ...you gone love baseball dogs

**habitualwinning** · 04-16-16, 12:04 PM

Not with that B squad lineup they're rolling out today. I don't care if they win 20-0, it's not worth laying juice on the B squad in MLB. People outside of Chicago don't even know who the starting LF for Cubs is today or how to pronounce his name. The regular A lineup #2 and #3 bats are both out today for Cubs.

**Avenger_deux** · 04-16-16, 12:06 PM

Not all in but I'm playing them. Go Arrieta!