#2 Kansas @ #19 Baylor: Jayhawks on upset alert

[FlipsideRM]

Weasel trying to give tips on college hoops now

[t-wizzle]

Weasel trying to give tips on college hoops now

Typical of this idiot. Doesn't have a clue so tosses out a pointless comment with the lmao emoji.

Flipper you're pathetic man. Your idea of a good time is getting plastered and going on SBR to tell a bunch of strangers about how you get no pusssssy.

[FlipsideRM]

Or going 21-1 my last 22 in college hoops. Why you keep going back to the well to post ncaabb plays acting like you know a thing or 2 is beyond me. This is a game I am not touching for several reasons. You're as bad as leetreaper wiz, keep throwing those darts

[t-wizzle]

Or going 21-1 my last 22 in college hoops. Why you keep going back to the well to post ncaabb plays acting like you know a thing or 2 is beyond me. This is a game I am not touching for several reasons. You're as bad as leetreaper wiz, keep throwing those darts

Ah I see. You go on a hot streak and think you're good. Make sure you're still posting like this when you go cold like we've seen you go so many times before here.

[FlipsideRM]

That would make sense except I've been posting all season..lmao. Idk why I'm even wasting my time, it's like arguing with a bucket of lard.

Kansas as or nothing here, nothing for me.

[t-wizzle]

That would make sense except I've been posting all season..lmao. Idk why I'm even wasting my time, it's like arguing with a bucket of lard.

Kansas as or nothing here, nothing for me.

I'm wasting your time but you continue to post in my thread.

See what I mean. This kid is a fukkin moron. Flipper you need to walk into the ocean and just never stop.

[KVB]

"upset alert" with 2.5 line lol

This wouldn't be an upset, simple as that.

Really? Care to explain, or can you? If #19 Baylor were to beat #2 Kansas as 2.5 point underdogs you would not consider it an upset?

[FlipsideRM]

Really? Care to explain, or can you? If #19 Baylor were to beat #2 Kansas as 2.5 point underdogs you would not consider it an upset?

i think the point he's trying to make, or at least I was is that it wouldn't be unfathomable to think Baylor can beat Kansas on their own floor. This game could go either way, as the line predicates this. However, to make a thread stating "upset alert" like a 10 point dog winning outright is silly. Plus I like trolling wizzle he's such an airhead

[t-wizzle]

i think the point he's trying to make, or at least I was is that it wouldn't be unfathomable to think Baylor can beat Kansas on their own floor. This game could go either way, as the line predicates this. However, to make a thread stating "upset alert" like a 10 point dog winning outright is silly. Plus I like trolling wizzle he's such an airhead

"Like a 10 point underdog." This kid just continues to throw shit against the wall. Such a dope.

[FlipsideRM]

[unde0087]

Hi, wizzle

[KVB]

In my opinion a play on Baylor here is less about Baylor stepping up and winning as it is about Kansas failing. Since I haven’t been posting like this it is hard for me to give you market background but I can say a few things.

First let me offer a breakdown on this line. Unsophisticated lines have a close game here with, of course, Kansas winning by a few points (as little as 2). The lines call for a higher scoring game as well in the mid 150’s. The more sophisticated we get however, we see Kansas pulling away winning by more than 10 points.

What happens as we get more sophisticated is that the Total edges closer to the mid 140’s. The oddsdmakers are forced into somewhat of a split on the total opening early with 152 points. It is no surprise that line as dropped towards the sharper, lower line. This line just as well could have opened at 150, but the public seeks that OVER in the televised game and basic lines are just too high.

When we talk about the pointspread here I can see why it has opened so low. Despite my line obviously indicating a +EV play with Kansas, I am a little hesitant. Over the short term I can identify several market moving groups that seek the underdog here and they, along with part of unsophisticated public money, are helping to keep this line lower. These groups can be right and those “public” bettors can be lucky.

Further, I believe the books are artificially suppressing this price just a bit, not only increasing the Kansas action, but giving an intentional signal to underdog bettors as well.

The books are doing an excellent job of increasing the action on this game and keeping it flowing through the day. In this respect, because sharper books seem willing to steer money to the underdog, it seems less likely that upset will come tonight.

If anything, it could be viewed as the books steering money away from Kansas. If you were a book, and offered a +EV Kansas play, wouldn’t you want to steer bettors away? This might rub some of you the wrong way as you think a simple line adjustment could accomplish the job. To this I say there is a bigger picture and there are many ways, other than line adjustments, to steer money.

I believe a great deal can be learned from watching this game and, for now, am sitting on the sidelines of what is essentially a +EV play on Kansas until I can further decipher the markets intentions.

Good Luck whatever your play.

[wufpakman21]

Wow. Dude thanks for sharing the wisdom. Seriously. Thanks

[t-wizzle]

Good stuff KVB.

[PorkChop]

Is Trump gambling when he's here in Vegas.

Staying at Trump International. there's no casino there .

[KVB]

Is Trump gambling when he's here in Vegas.

Staying at Trump International. there's no casino there .

No gaming, no smoking. But there are something like 14 inch TV's embedded in the bathroom mirrors...lol.

[t-wizzle]

Line moves indicate it could come down to a final shot.

[FlipsideRM]

Line moves indicate it could come down to a final shot.

lmfao....

[Birdman557]

Line moves indicate it could come down to a final shot.

[Russian Rocket]

Line moves indicate it could come down to a final shot.

[drfunkmaster]

[t-wizzle]

Tight game so far.

[t-wizzle]

Baylor playing with tons of energy here. Offensive rebounding has been huge. Interesting they've switched to playing mostly man to man.

[jz833]

Baylor is looking too good right now

[unde0087]

CBBTicket #: 248109839[2739] 2H KANSAS-2-115Risking: $150.00To Win: $130.43

For you wizzle

[KRIT]

Classic Scott Drew using his last timeout with 5 minutes left.

[t-wizzle]

Classic Scott Drew using his last timeout with 5 minutes left.

The problem wasn't that timeout. It was the second one he used. Completely unnecessary.

I see why he's burned them though. Baylor has for the most part dictated the tempo of this game. It's been a possession by possession game. He's in essence putting the game in the hands of his defense and hoping they can make enough stops in the halfcourt. It's a good move. Baylor needs this to be a halfcourt game. If they can get a couple transition buckets then great but they can't let Kansas run on them.

[t-wizzle]

Kansas has gotten the loose balls late here.

[FlipsideRM]

Hey

[KRIT]

Petty much how I figured the game would go. Baylor hangs for 37 minutes and chokes when it matters most.

[t-wizzle]

Petty much how I figured the game would go. Baylor hangs for 37 minutes and chokes when it matters most.

I thought it was more a case of KU making the plays late than Baylor choking.

[drfunkmaster]

[GT21Megatron]

Late money coming in on Baylor

[t-wizzle]

Late money coming in on Baylor

Wrong

[FlipsideRM]

Line move indicates this game could come down to last shot