#2 Kansas @ #19 Baylor: Jayhawks on upset alert

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  • FlipsideRM
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 09-28-11
    • 10518

    #36
    Weasel trying to give tips on college hoops now
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    • t-wizzle
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 12-18-09
      • 38099

      #37
      Originally posted by FlipsideRM
      Weasel trying to give tips on college hoops now
      Typical of this idiot. Doesn't have a clue so tosses out a pointless comment with the lmao emoji.

      Flipper you're pathetic man. Your idea of a good time is getting plastered and going on SBR to tell a bunch of strangers about how you get no pusssssy.
      Comment
      • FlipsideRM
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 09-28-11
        • 10518

        #38
        Or going 21-1 my last 22 in college hoops. Why you keep going back to the well to post ncaabb plays acting like you know a thing or 2 is beyond me. This is a game I am not touching for several reasons. You're as bad as leetreaper wiz, keep throwing those darts
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        • t-wizzle
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 12-18-09
          • 38099

          #39
          Originally posted by FlipsideRM
          Or going 21-1 my last 22 in college hoops. Why you keep going back to the well to post ncaabb plays acting like you know a thing or 2 is beyond me. This is a game I am not touching for several reasons. You're as bad as leetreaper wiz, keep throwing those darts
          Ah I see. You go on a hot streak and think you're good. Make sure you're still posting like this when you go cold like we've seen you go so many times before here.
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          • FlipsideRM
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 09-28-11
            • 10518

            #40
            That would make sense except I've been posting all season..lmao. Idk why I'm even wasting my time, it's like arguing with a bucket of lard.

            Kansas as or nothing here, nothing for me.
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            • t-wizzle
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 12-18-09
              • 38099

              #41
              Originally posted by FlipsideRM
              That would make sense except I've been posting all season..lmao. Idk why I'm even wasting my time, it's like arguing with a bucket of lard.

              Kansas as or nothing here, nothing for me.
              I'm wasting your time but you continue to post in my thread.

              See what I mean. This kid is a fukkin moron. Flipper you need to walk into the ocean and just never stop.
              Comment
              • KVB
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 05-29-14
                • 74817

                #42
                Originally posted by BigDeem5
                "upset alert" with 2.5 line lol
                Originally posted by BigDeem5
                This wouldn't be an upset, simple as that.

                Really? Care to explain, or can you? If #19 Baylor were to beat #2 Kansas as 2.5 point underdogs you would not consider it an upset?

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                • FlipsideRM
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 09-28-11
                  • 10518

                  #43
                  Originally posted by KVB
                  Really? Care to explain, or can you? If #19 Baylor were to beat #2 Kansas as 2.5 point underdogs you would not consider it an upset?

                  i think the point he's trying to make, or at least I was is that it wouldn't be unfathomable to think Baylor can beat Kansas on their own floor. This game could go either way, as the line predicates this. However, to make a thread stating "upset alert" like a 10 point dog winning outright is silly. Plus I like trolling wizzle he's such an airhead
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                  • t-wizzle
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 12-18-09
                    • 38099

                    #44
                    Originally posted by FlipsideRM
                    i think the point he's trying to make, or at least I was is that it wouldn't be unfathomable to think Baylor can beat Kansas on their own floor. This game could go either way, as the line predicates this. However, to make a thread stating "upset alert" like a 10 point dog winning outright is silly. Plus I like trolling wizzle he's such an airhead
                    "Like a 10 point underdog." This kid just continues to throw shit against the wall. Such a dope.
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                    • FlipsideRM
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 09-28-11
                      • 10518

                      #45
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                      • unde0087
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 03-27-08
                        • 28874

                        #46
                        Hi, wizzle
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                        • KVB
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 05-29-14
                          • 74817

                          #47
                          In my opinion a play on Baylor here is less about Baylor stepping up and winning as it is about Kansas failing. Since I haven’t been posting like this it is hard for me to give you market background but I can say a few things.

                          First let me offer a breakdown on this line. Unsophisticated lines have a close game here with, of course, Kansas winning by a few points (as little as 2). The lines call for a higher scoring game as well in the mid 150’s. The more sophisticated we get however, we see Kansas pulling away winning by more than 10 points.

                          What happens as we get more sophisticated is that the Total edges closer to the mid 140’s. The oddsdmakers are forced into somewhat of a split on the total opening early with 152 points. It is no surprise that line as dropped towards the sharper, lower line. This line just as well could have opened at 150, but the public seeks that OVER in the televised game and basic lines are just too high.

                          When we talk about the pointspread here I can see why it has opened so low. Despite my line obviously indicating a +EV play with Kansas, I am a little hesitant. Over the short term I can identify several market moving groups that seek the underdog here and they, along with part of unsophisticated public money, are helping to keep this line lower. These groups can be right and those “public” bettors can be lucky.

                          Further, I believe the books are artificially suppressing this price just a bit, not only increasing the Kansas action, but giving an intentional signal to underdog bettors as well.

                          The books are doing an excellent job of increasing the action on this game and keeping it flowing through the day. In this respect, because sharper books seem willing to steer money to the underdog, it seems less likely that upset will come tonight.

                          If anything, it could be viewed as the books steering money away from Kansas. If you were a book, and offered a +EV Kansas play, wouldn’t you want to steer bettors away? This might rub some of you the wrong way as you think a simple line adjustment could accomplish the job. To this I say there is a bigger picture and there are many ways, other than line adjustments, to steer money.

                          I believe a great deal can be learned from watching this game and, for now, am sitting on the sidelines of what is essentially a +EV play on Kansas until I can further decipher the markets intentions.

                          Good Luck whatever your play.

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                          • wufpakman21
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 08-26-13
                            • 403

                            #48
                            Wow. Dude thanks for sharing the wisdom. Seriously. Thanks
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                            • t-wizzle
                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                              • 12-18-09
                              • 38099

                              #49
                              Good stuff KVB.
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                              • PorkChop
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 09-18-08
                                • 8193

                                #50
                                Is Trump gambling when he's here in Vegas.

                                Staying at Trump International. there's no casino there .
                                Comment
                                • KVB
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 05-29-14
                                  • 74817

                                  #51
                                  Originally posted by PorkChop
                                  Is Trump gambling when he's here in Vegas.

                                  Staying at Trump International. there's no casino there .
                                  No gaming, no smoking. But there are something like 14 inch TV's embedded in the bathroom mirrors...lol.
                                  Comment
                                  • t-wizzle
                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                    • 12-18-09
                                    • 38099

                                    #52
                                    Line moves indicate it could come down to a final shot.
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                                    • FlipsideRM
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 09-28-11
                                      • 10518

                                      #53
                                      Originally posted by t-wizzle
                                      Line moves indicate it could come down to a final shot.
                                      lmfao....

                                      Comment
                                      • Birdman557
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 10-31-12
                                        • 653

                                        #54
                                        Originally posted by t-wizzle
                                        Line moves indicate it could come down to a final shot.
                                        Comment
                                        • Russian Rocket
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 09-02-12
                                          • 43910

                                          #55
                                          Originally posted by t-wizzle
                                          Line moves indicate it could come down to a final shot.
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                                          • drfunkmaster
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 11-29-08
                                            • 11162

                                            #56
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                                            • t-wizzle
                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                              • 12-18-09
                                              • 38099

                                              #57
                                              Tight game so far.
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                                              • t-wizzle
                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                • 12-18-09
                                                • 38099

                                                #58
                                                Baylor playing with tons of energy here. Offensive rebounding has been huge. Interesting they've switched to playing mostly man to man.
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                                                • jz833
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 02-05-14
                                                  • 608

                                                  #59
                                                  Baylor is looking too good right now
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                                                  • unde0087
                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                    • 03-27-08
                                                    • 28874

                                                    #60
                                                    CBBTicket #: 248109839[2739] 2H KANSAS-2-115Risking: $150.00To Win: $130.43

                                                    For you wizzle
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                                                    • KRIT
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 01-11-14
                                                      • 12874

                                                      #61
                                                      Classic Scott Drew using his last timeout with 5 minutes left.
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                                                      • t-wizzle
                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                        • 12-18-09
                                                        • 38099

                                                        #62
                                                        Originally posted by KRIT
                                                        Classic Scott Drew using his last timeout with 5 minutes left.
                                                        The problem wasn't that timeout. It was the second one he used. Completely unnecessary.

                                                        I see why he's burned them though. Baylor has for the most part dictated the tempo of this game. It's been a possession by possession game. He's in essence putting the game in the hands of his defense and hoping they can make enough stops in the halfcourt. It's a good move. Baylor needs this to be a halfcourt game. If they can get a couple transition buckets then great but they can't let Kansas run on them.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • t-wizzle
                                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                          • 12-18-09
                                                          • 38099

                                                          #63
                                                          Kansas has gotten the loose balls late here.
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                                                          • FlipsideRM
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 09-28-11
                                                            • 10518

                                                            #64
                                                            Hey
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                                                            • KRIT
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 01-11-14
                                                              • 12874

                                                              #65
                                                              Petty much how I figured the game would go. Baylor hangs for 37 minutes and chokes when it matters most.
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                                                              • t-wizzle
                                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                • 12-18-09
                                                                • 38099

                                                                #66
                                                                Originally posted by KRIT
                                                                Petty much how I figured the game would go. Baylor hangs for 37 minutes and chokes when it matters most.
                                                                I thought it was more a case of KU making the plays late than Baylor choking.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • drfunkmaster
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 11-29-08
                                                                  • 11162

                                                                  #67
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                                                                  • GT21Megatron
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 12-20-13
                                                                    • 10818

                                                                    #68
                                                                    Late money coming in on Baylor
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                                                                    • t-wizzle
                                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                      • 12-18-09
                                                                      • 38099

                                                                      #69
                                                                      Originally posted by GT21Megatron
                                                                      Late money coming in on Baylor
                                                                      Wrong
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • FlipsideRM
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 09-28-11
                                                                        • 10518

                                                                        #70
                                                                        Line move indicates this game could come down to last shot
                                                                        Comment
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